Interesting news from the Hotline:
Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.) is taking a close look at a potential bid for Sen. Richard Lugar’s (R) seat, according to sources familiar with his thinking, as the prospect of facing a much more conservative contender grows.
An Indiana Democratic source familiar with Donnelly’s thinking confirmed that Donnelly is looking more closely at the Senate race than he is at a potential gubernatorial contest. “He’s taking a very serious look at the Senate race,” the source said.
State Democratic Party chairman Dan Parker, in Washington for a meeting of the Democratic National Committee, has heard the same thing. “He has not indicated to me that the Senate race would be out of the question,” Parker said.
As the article points out (and folks here well know), Donnelly is also a potential redistricting victim, so a senate run would be something of an escape hatch – all the moreso should the teahadist conflagration in the GOP primary leave some seriously scorched battleground behind.
I don’t see that he has anything to lose. There is no way he’s not going to be redistricted out of his seat anyway. I think his chances of winning are small, even if Mourdock defeats Lugar in a primary but they are probably better than retaining his house seat. Low risk, high reward.
I might fall asleep during his campaign, though. Somebody kick me if I start snoring in the comments section.
But with Obama driving base turnout I imagine Donnelly could play quite well statewide. Lugar’s attitude to the campaign following a primary defeat would be fascinating.
for congressman who was barely reelectrd (admittedly – in very bad year) againt an extremist Republican, and who is a “potential redistricting victim”. Yhe poosibility of upset in Republican primary makes this race even more attractive, though Republican would still be at least initial favorite..
candidate. predicting that a tea party nutball would be the favorite seems unusual 2 years from the race in a state that obama won in ’08. currently voters are negative towards democrats – particuarly in reddish states. but just 2 years earlier they were very positive. i think neither is a permanent condition.
my sense is that lugar would be fantastic for us (hardly more conservative than bayh really). lugar is immensely popular – his average result as a senator is 67%! specter’s average was just around 50%. no comparison in terms of likeability or raw numbers. and donnelly can then run for guv – which he wants to do anyway (and which many democrats have won over the years also).
We gotta make the GOP spend as much as possible if we have any hopes of keeping the senate competitive, and Donnelly’s the best shot we have here to get the NRSC to maybe invest a little here. I think Lugar loses his primary and agree that Donnelly’s numbers will resemble Obama’s to a certain extent. However, he voted for HCR and was still able to survive 2010 so I wouldn’t be surprised if outperforms Obama by a couple points.
I don’t know IN politics at all, though. And I don’t see him doing any joint events with Obama, I don’t think Indiana is going to be as competitive in ’12 as it was in ’08.
it’s pretty obvious that Lugar will not be the GOP nominee next year. With Obama expected to be competitive in the state again, Donnelly must be feeling like he’s at least got a decent shot at matching Obama’s numbers. That and the aforementioned redistricting which will likely split the Dem-leaning turf in Donnelly’s district.
First, while I’m getting very skeptical of Lugar winning the Republican nomination, I wouldn’t go so far as to say he’s toast. Remember that Indiana does have an open primary, unlike Delaware and Alaska, and Lugar will pull in independents. Also, the tea party vote could be divided if another candidate gets in. And, despite the 70 percent of county chairs backing his opponent, Lugar has built up some goodwill among regular Republican voters over the past 30 odd years. DCCyclone regularly cautions us not to view this years election through the prism of 2010, and I think we should do that even when the results might benefit Dems.
That said, my second point would be to say Donnelly should jump in. He’s going to be redistricted out of his seat any way, and while I don’t think Lugar is toast, I don’t think he’s in real good shape either (see the backing of the 70% of county chairs for Mourdock). He certainly would make a race against Mourdock, and might even win. Also, I think Donnelly entering the race might have the added benefit of forcing Lugar to switch parties. He would have a tougher time winning as an independent with a legit Dem in the race.
of driving up the vote in the cities and getting more of the vote in rural areas. I am very curious to see how difficult it would be to put that coalition back together. There hasn’t been much polling since after the elections. So theoretically Obama’s approvals could be rather healthy in context. If that’s the case then Democrats could have an easier time if Lugar looses in the primary.
By the way robo calls are illegal in Indiana right? Because I received one about two weeks before the election. I can’t remember what polling company, but it was definitely not a live person at any point during the call.
if Lugar gets wrecked in a primary and then turns around and endorses Donnelly for the general election? Would that make us a favorite?
I think this is similar to what Sherrod Brown did during redistricting after the 2000 Census: claim you’re running statewide against a vulnerable incumbent; go for it if your lose your seat due to redistricting; or stay in the House if the GOP panics and draws you a safe seat.
Think this could be a ploy to force the GOP to make a safe seat for Donnelly to keep him out of the race?
Does anyone think he could jump ship and go Jeffords or something like that if things look bad for him in the primary? Are those rumors still circulating?
adding flames to the fire. He now claims Lugar is his favorite Republican. He is either trying to put the final nail in Lugar’s Republican primary or get him to switch. Or maybe I’m making too much of it.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsal…
my recollection from 2010 was that the tea party candidates in DE and Alaska, and NV were really under the radar until very late in the campaigns. then, when palin or the club for growth dropped a money bomb about them and they swamped the mainstream republican. lugar would be vulnerable to the same approach.
and tea party “leaders” might want explicit allegiance to the tea party but tea party voters i think are just very conservative republicans and libertarians – you know, the republican primary voting base.
mourdock doesn’t want to be weighed down with o’donnell/joe miller/sharon angle baggage at this point – that’s why i think he’s not identifying as a tea party guy.