Arkansas is one of the few states where Democrats have complete control of the process. It’s not clear exactly what Democrats there have in mind, but there is some indication that they do want to create that they want to keep Mike Ross safe and not make AR-2 too comfortable for Tim Griffin. It also looks as if the no county splitting tradition is out the window this time around.
This first map is very rough cut of a compromise map. Crawford gets safer by shedding numerous Delta counties to Ross. Griffin doesn’t change much either way and Shane Broadway or Bill Halter would be a formidable challenger to him. Steve Womack stays exactly the same.
The set up I have created here would satisfy local concerns well. One possible move would be to put Fort Smith in the 4th district, but seeing as Fort Smith doesn’t have a whole lot in common with much of what else is in the 4th and some Fort Smith business interest have objected to such a move. Plus, Mike Ross would probably feel more secure not taking it on, so this set up is satisfactory as a compromise on those fronts.
Are far as demographics, AR-2 is a few points more African-American than before and AR-4 jumps from 16% to 30%, with voting age population close to that number.
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Now, things may not turn out so smoothly. State Senator Sue Madison, D-Fayetteville, as indicated that Fayetteville may be plucked out of AR-3 and put in AR-4. This wouldn’t look too clean, but it would be a 2-2 map, as I assume Democrats may also go after Tim Griffin and Fayetteville would give Mike Ross better security by giving him a second Dem anchor outside of Pine Bluff.
This would be another more version that would divide counties less, but have the same effect.
I’ve also read some information about a push for a majority-black district by some in the Legislative Black Caucus and of course, Republicans. It’s would take some very creative drawing to get a district like this and the shape would very likely cause it to end it getting thrown out in court.
I heard that they are going to break the tradition of not splitting counties this time to help secure their position.
I don’t know if those are his perpetual weak counties or anything though.
in Arkansas–rumours are flying. I guess we will what happens when its all said and done. I think Ross will end up with a district that he likes which I think will make knocking Griffin out much harder but I guess it ain’t over til its over.
I glad a lot.
It was too difficult to draw a good map without divide some county. To have the chance of divide counties is the best new for the democrats from Arkansas looking to do a good map. It is a give improvement.
Without this obstacle it is possible to find the VRA protection for one of the districts. The republicans would not change this in future redistricting process.