I decided to attempt redistricting Arizona, with its requirements for districts based around communities of interest. Arizona will pick up a 9th Congressional seat in 2012, though it’s tough to say which is the ‘new’ seat in my map as I moved a lot of things around in the Phoenix metro area. Changes elsewhere were less radical.
Caveats: While the district populations are all roughly equal in DRA, they have the potential to be out of whack in reality, particularly in Pinal County, I’m told. Also, I have little first hand knowledge of Arizona and am going mostly off of what I’ve read in other diaries, so cue Nico picking this apart in 3…2…1
So, here goes:
Statewide
Phoenix Metro
Tucson Metro
Arizona’s 1st Congressional District
Demos: 59% White, 1% Black, 20% Native American, 18% Hispanic, 1% Asian, 1% Otther
Description: Similar to the current 1st, though it sheds most of the non-rural Pinal stuff and picks up rural parts of Cochise and the rural portions of Maricopa instead. The district, as drawn is designed to keep as many rural interests in the state together as possible. The swaps have made this a more Republican district than the current 1st, but I’m guessing that it’s definitely winnable for the right kind of Democrat.
Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District
Demos: 74% White, 3% Black, 2% Native American, 2% Asian, 17% Hispanic, 1% Other
The 2nd stays similar to its current configuration. It does pick up all of La Paz County from the current 8th, but the western Phoenix suburbs, including most of Glendale, dominate here. So, what you have are two communities of interest: the smaller cities on the Western half of the state and the bulk of the West Valley of Phoenix. Should send a GOPer to Congress.
Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District
Demos: 79% White, 2% Black, 1% Native American, 3% Asian, 13% Hispanic, 1% Other
The 3rd remains a North Phoenix dominated district. However, it sheds Central Phoenix to the new 6th and picks up North Scottsdale and Paradise Valley from the old 5th. What I’m aiming for here is to combine the wealthier suburbs into a single district. I’m guessing that even Ben Quayle is probably safe here, and any other GOPer would have a job for life.
Arizona’s 4th Congressional District
Demos: 72% White, 3% Black, 1% Native American, 2% Asian, 20% Hispanic, 1% Other
The new 4th contains the whiter, farther out 2nd ring suburbs of Phoenix (East Mesa and Gilbert) along with the bulk of Pinal County. I’m not going to lie-this configuration is largely because aside from the Indian reservations and the rural parts, I wasn’t quite sure how to carve up Pinal, so I figured that keeping it mostly together (minus the Indian Reservations in the 8th and the rural east in the 1st) as a community of interest wasn’t the worst idea in the world. I’m guessing this is a GOP slam dunk.
Arizona’s 5th Congressional District
Demos: 22% White, 9% Black, 2% Native American, 2% Asian, 65% Hispanic, 1% Other
This is basically the current 4th CD, except that it loses the whiter portions of Central Phoenix to the new 6th and gains a little more population in the West Valley. Best Dem district in the state from a PVI perspective.
Arizona’s 6th Congressional District
Demos: 50% White, 5% Black, 3% Native American, 4% Asian, 37% Hispanic, 2% Other
Tempe plus Central Phoenix in a district that, to me anyways, makes a huge amount of sense as it brings together two ASU campuses plus the seat of government. I think of this as the Texas 25th of Arizona, a white, liberalish seat; say hello to some sort of Democrat here.
Arizona’s 7th Congressional District
Demos: 65% White, 3% Black, 4% Native American, 2% Asian, 24% Hispanic, 2% Other
The aim here was to bring together a bunch of first and second tier suburbs located to the east of downtown Phoenix together in a district. The district is comprised of West Mesa, Ahwatukee, Chandler, and Southern Scottsdale. I know that Chandler is swingy, and West Mesa is D friendly, but know nothing about Ahwatukee and the portion of Scottsdale in the district.
Arizona’s 8th Congressional District
Demos: 32% White, 3% Black, 5% Native American, 1% Asian, 58% Hispanic, 1% Other
This is a lot like the old 7th, though it sheds La Paz to the 7th, parts of central Tucson (including the University of Arizona) into the 9th. In exchange, it picks up some Hispanic heavy turf in Maricopa in the West Valley and the rest of Sierra Vista, and is in the end, several points more Hispanic than the old district (though what this translates to in VAP is unknown); should send some flavor of Dem back to Congress.
Arizona’s 9th Congressional District
Demos: 73% White, 3% Black, 1% Native American, 3% Asian, 18% Hispanic, 2% Other
Picks up white liberals in Tucson and sheds eastern Cochise and the Sierra Vista portions. The two big military installations are here as a community of interest, along with Eastern Tucson. Gabby would do very well here, but as an open seat I’d guess that it’s still definitely winnable for either party.
Not familiar with AZ, but I like seeing the occasional diary about communities from a demographic but nonpartisan perspective.
Your “new” district is your AZ6, which went into a slow-growing area, although that’s what happened last time when the new districts were Pastor’s AZ4 and Schweikert’s AZ5. Thoughts on the districts:
AZ1: Swapping out central Pinal for eastern Cochise and some emptyish parts of Maricopa is probably about a wash politically. I think it would still be lean R, although Gosar would probably not be able to hold it indefinitely.
AZ2: Even more of a Republican sink.
AZ3: Also a red sink. Even for Quayle.
AZ4: another uber-red district. Those were already the 3 reddest seats and you made them even more red.
AZ5: blue sink for Pastor.
AZ6: this district would almost certainly send up a Democrat. I could see my old reps Chuck Blanchard, Ken Cheuvront, or Chris Cummiskey (among others) holding this indefinitely.
AZ7: looks like the current AZ5 but without its reddest (north Scottsdale) and bluest (north Tempe) parts. Ahwatukee and south Scottsdale are lean-R areas but I would suspect them to trend blue over time along with the rest of this district. I think Schweikert could hold this in an average year, but maybe not in a good Dem year.
AZ8: Grijalva would be very happy with that district, and I think he would hold it all decade.
AZ9: probably tilt-D or lean-D now. Giffords could hold that indefinitely, although if she moves on a moderate Republican (someone like Jim Kolbe) could win it in a good year.
Overall this map would be very favorable for Dems. It has 3 red seats, 3 blue ones, and 3 purple ones. It would be 5R-4D at most after 2012 if Giffords runs in AZ9, and possibly 3R-6D as Gosar and Schweikert would likely draw strong challengers.
Probably a little bit too pro-Dem, but it’s quite good from a Communities of Interest point of view.
AZ-01 I’ve recently decided that despite the good intentions of creating a rural seat, this district is going to be a hopeless mess no matter what anyone does. This is probably pretty close to as good as it gets, though I’m not sure why quintessential exburb Anthem from Maricopa County is there.
AZ-03 Heh, Ben Quayle lives in your AZ-06 and David Schweikert lives here. The once-countywide-elected and generally competent but quite conservative Schweikert would (probably) wreck Quayle in a primary (unless he got tea-bagged to death).
AZ-06 looks like it was personally drawn from Kyrsten Sinema, who is sort of the prototypical Arizona white liberal. I do really get the appeal of the well-educated, urban, “Creative Class” sort of district. TX-25 is actually a really good comparison, though swap the rural counties with a few stubbornly light red parts of a central Phoenix. Should clock in somewhere like 56 or 57% Obama.
AZ-07 & AZ-04 Actually this map shows quite careful attention to dividing the purple parts of the East Valley from the red ones. As things stand now, your AZ-07 leans to the right without the help of Tempe, but it’s probably close enough that it’s still considered competitive. Obama probably pulled off something in the mid to high forties here.
AZ-08 Yuma County is really Hispanic. It is also votes quite Republican, presumably because Hispanics don’t or can’t vote (because the parts of the county that are overwhelming Hispanic vote solidly though in small numbers for Democrats, I don’t think the puzzle here is that local Hispanics are more likely than the mean to support Republicans). Voter participation rates seem a lot higher in the parts of the West Valley you drew in, so that should more or less compensate for dropping white libs in Tucson, but bear in mind that politically this district is probably mostly treading water. It’s hard to do much with Pinal County due to the way the current census block groups are drawn (it will be easier when we have 2010 blocks in the DRA), but it would be cool to somehow get mostly white Maricopa into your 4th and mostly Hispanic towns like Eloy and Coolidge into your 8th.
AZ-09 Definitely got a push to the left due to the inclusion of the rest of Midtown and most of downtown to boot. Obama probably won it now.
Lets review this map and the old map for VRA implications.
1. The old map clearly had two seats that were clearly racial gerrymanders. The splitting of the two indian reservations between CD1 & CD2. Its clearly a racial decision but not one that I agree with. Its a political decision to divide the two tribes up by race and it passes VRA muster. The 7th district is only clearly a seat that is a racial gerrymander. The part of Maricopa & Pinal counties was designed to exclude white voters now in CD2 & CD6. The same for Santa Cruz & Pima county as lines were drawn to carefully put white voters in CD8. I have no problem with this political decision as its a way to get the AZ delegation to reflect the population of the state. This move was not required under Shaw but is certainly a valid political interest to have two hispanic congressman from AZ.
2. The current map continues the same brand of racial splits in Pima, Yuma and Maricopa counties. CD8 is clearly gerrymandered to keep a majority minority seat for Congressman G. For the reasons stated above I think that’s totally okay. This type of action is not required under VRA but is allowed. As I said I think its a noble political goal to have the congressional representation of a state reflect its population.
I am not sure Maricopa will end up like this after the map is drawn. This is clearly a map that is designed to stack and pack repulblicans in several seats in an effort to create competitive seats. Not sure it will happen but who knows.
I could see something like this coming to pass. Saddlebrooke will be kept in the same district as northern Pima county, so your district 9. Also, I’d be surprised to see the commission split Sierra Vista into two seperate districts. I agree with Nico that your district 9 would elect Kyrsten Sinema. She’s been making noises about running and may be able to get a clear path in the primary.
Although the commission has an independent chair who gave to now Dem state chair Andrei Cherney in his run for state treasurer and Emily’s List, it also has a plant from Jesse Kelly (last seen narrowly losing to Giffords in November). While a map like this is certainly possible, the lines through Tucson may become a topic of much discussion on the commission.