A Look at Southern Texas Redistricting

I was working on an extended redistricting of Texas, but I accidentally closed out the file! I had saved it using an .RTF, but I don’t know how to open it (can anyone help with that??). But anyway, I did take a photoshot of Southern Texas before I closed out, and I think it might be worthwhile to examine what redistricting will look like along the border.

Photobucket

I used the 2010 Census numbers for this, so all follow the VRA. I also plugged in the partisan data for TX-23 and found that if you attach the district to San Angelo, you get a Obama 44% district and VAP of 59% Hispanic. Pretty cool!

I drew an extra fajita strip (purple) that went about 49% for Obama, while being around 60% VAP. The other Hispanic districts (TX-15, 20, 28, 35) are all around 70% VAP. The new TX27 (green) is safe for Farenthold (back-of-the-envelope calculations say that it went 41% for Obama).

Also, as you can see, McCaul is significantly safer, it’s now a 38% Obama district. However, and this is important, the estimations under the partisan data are wildly different than the actual Census numbers: the district is actually far more Hispanic under the 2010 numbers. In fact, it’s only 60% white VAP, and less so with the total numbers. Austin is far more Hispanic that one would imagine.

Also, Carter is made a lot safer in his district by removing Killeen to the super-duper red TX-11.

So tell me what you think! Sorry I don’t have the rest available–I will if someone helps me out. I do think this is what’s going to happen, though.

2 thoughts on “A Look at Southern Texas Redistricting”

  1. RTF is a rich text format file, and you should be able to open it using microsoft word.  

    (I’m curious to see what the southern part of those fajita strips look like.)

  2. As a former resident with friends and relatives in that area, I can tell you that the big money down there will probably not allow Victoria to be put in a district with the valley.

    It’s state senate district reaches to Houston (Katy) and they love themselves some Ron Paul down there.

    I live in the Dallas area and I’m also trying to draw my own. My state house member is chairman of the Redistricting committee.

    Male, 54, TX-24, Libertarian/Republican

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