Kentucky Redistricting: Incumbent Protection Map

So, this is my first SSP diary! The 2010 Census data for my beloved Bluegrass State was released in one of the recent data dumps, but unfortunately it's not on Dave's App yet. Fortunately, there were absolutely no surprises in the final data, so for this map I am using the estimates, which produce results nearly identical to what the real ones would.

Kentucky, of course, has a 4R-2D delegation currently. Redistricting is up to the legislature (currently split; Dems have the House, GOP has the Senate) with the governor having veto power (Dems of course control this with Steve Beshear). There really hasn't been much redistricting talk that I've heard of yet, probably mostly due to the fact that not much will change. But one possibility is an incumbent protection map, especially considering some of the current Reps are starting to make their opinions known to the powers that be. 

Note that this is not necessarily the map I expect to see emerge. It's just one possiblity, and frankly it's about the most interesting Kentucky map to draw that has a realistic shot at happening. This is about as good as it gets for all six incumbents.

 

 

KY-01 Ed Whitfield (R- Hopkinsville) (Blue)

My home district lost some population and so it needs to expand a bit. Not much changes, though. It remains Western Kentucky-based, with a rather ugly arm extending into the hard right south-central part of the state. That arm does move west a bit to accomodate the fifth's move westward, but it's really just trading deep red territory for other deep red territory. I wish this would become a strictly western-based seat (it could be done by adding Owensboro), but I doubt it'll happen. Whitfield is, unfortunately, good to go.

Rating: Safe GOP

 

KY-02 Brett Guthrie (R- Bowling Green) (Green)

The second needs to shed some people, as the Louisville burbs have done some growing over the past decade. Ironically, though, this seat actually becomes much more suburban/exurban. by giving some southern counties to the first and now totally surrounding Jefferson County. In terms of the GOP primary (the only race that will really matter here), that does tip the balance more toward the eastern part of the district, but it shouldn't be a problem for the Bowling Green-based Guthrie (in case you were wondering, both Bowling Green and Owensboro are Republican-leaning despite being decent-sized towns). Guthrie probably has statewide ambitions at some point, but even if he goes, this seat's outcome is not in doubt.

Rating: Safe GOP

 

KY-03 John Yarmuth (D- Louisville) (Purple)

John Yarmuth remains confined in his little slice of Heaven, also known as Metro Louisville. Jefferson County has not grown much relative to the rest of the state, and it remains almost exactly the size of one CD, so hardly anything changes here. This area is trending blue, and the popular congressman should be fine if he survived 2010. It's hard to believe Anne Northup represented this just a few years ago.

Rating: Likely Dem

 

KY-04 Geoff Davis (R- Hebron) (Red)

Davis is a fellow you might not have heard of unless you're from Kentucky or you're a real junkie; he's a pretty unassuming backbencher. His base in the solid-red Cincinnati burbs has grown quite a bit, so this district needs to lose some people. It pulls further away from Louisville, notably dropping suburban and growing Oldham County, taking in a few more counties to the south and east. It remains safe for Davis and any other GOPer.

Rating: Safe GOP 

 

KY-05 Hal Rogers (R- Somerset) (Yellow)

Here's where things get a bit more interesting. As you can see, the fifth has lost some of its mountain flavor (but still keeps plenty of it) as it ceded some ancestrally Dem counties to help Ben Chandler's cause. Seeing as it was already losing population, it has to expand westward, now taking in parts of central Kentucky and even some Lexingon peripheral areas. It remains one of the poorest CD's in the country.

One notable feature of this map that may appeal to Republicans is that it pretty much takes this district off the table for any future Dems down the road. Of course old Hal is untouchable, but in its current configuration, it's not impossible, in an open seat situation, for a conservative Mongiardo-style Dem (maybe Mongiardo himself?) to win the fifth with a fantastic campaign in a good year. But with its Democratic heart cut out and given to the sixth, that possibility is probably gone. 

Rating: Safe GOP 

 

KY-06 Ben Chandler (D- Versailles) (Turquoise)

The big one, and the centerpiece of the whole map. As you SSPers know, Chandler eeked out a narrow win last year over the tea-flavored Andy Barr. It was actually quite impressive that he did it, but he's probably a bit spooked anyway and it wouldn't be shocking to see him ask for a better district. So here it is. The sixth gives away conservative territory in the north and south, freeing up room to expand east and take in the heart of Appalachia. While these counties mostly vote GOP on the national level now, they will still easily break for any competent statewide or local Kentucky Dem. The KDP tradition is very strong here; Bruce Lunsford (remember him?) won all but two of the counties here in '08 against McConnell, and one of those was Chandler's home of Woodford. Conway also did well here in 2010. 

Now, this is not without its drawbacks. I have expressed this concern before: Lexington/Frankfort and the coal counties are very different. They both vote for Dems, but their interests are worlds apart. That said, it's hard to imagine a Republican winning here, so it would really just be more of a personal concern for Chandler on a few issues. He should be fine, although don't expect him to move to the left much. 

Rating: Likely Dem 

 

So, there you have it. Not much action is likely to happen in the Bluegrass in redistricting, but this is one possibility, although if Beshear loses the governor's race this year this map probably becomes slightly less likely. Hope this sheds some light on the situation.