This is unexpected – and interesting:
Former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, a freshman Democrat ousted in last year’s Republican tidal wave, is angling for a rematch against Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Ariz. She told AZ/DC Tuesday that she has made the decision to run for her seat again in 2012. …
“It’s clear to me, now that Paul Gosar has a record, that he is toeing the party line rather than serving the district,” she said. “The real key for me is the number of people who I’ve been hearing from in the district — and this is Democrats, independents, Republicans and even folks who are actively involved in the ‘tea party’ — that they feel he is deeply out-of-touch with the district.”
Kirkpatrick said she hopes the 2012 political climate will be more hospitable to her candidacy because it is a presidential year and likely will have a bigger turnout.
I’m not sure that this comeback had really been on our radar. In fact, I apart from randomly appearing in a PPP poll a little while back, her name hasn’t come up on SSP since the November election. Most commentators wrote her off at one point or another last year – we eventually moved the race to Lean R. Kirkpatrick wound up losing, of course, but by a not-entire-horribly six points. (By comparison, Carol Shea-Porter was also universally considered to be in a “Lean R” race, and she lost by double that margin.) So perhaps she has enough mojo to stage a comeback.
(As an aside, I’d also point out that Kirkpatrick was the Dem in the reddest seat who both voted for healthcare reform and against the Stupak amendment-as a freshman, no less.)
Of course, there’s the little matter of redistricting, but as the article notes, both Gosar and Kirkpatrick hail from Flagstaff, so if there’s a district for them to run in after the state’s independent commission gets done with its work, they’ll both be in it. AZ-01 is also one of those seats that you’re pretty much required to describe as “sprawling” – it is, in fact, the tenth-largest by area (and fifth among non-at-large states). So unless mapmakers get very creative, it’s hard to imagine this behemoth won’t still exist in some form or another come next year.
And seeing as it’s not clear who else would step up here, Kirkpatrick could be a could option.
I just hope she ups her campaigning.
Good. I do not think she will win but she is undoubtedly better than what I assume is a small bench. Honestly six points is really not a horrible margin when you factor in the year. There were some tossups in which incumbents lost by ten points. So not awful. Gosar would have to make some serious gaffes or run a bad campaign for Kilpatrick to actually win, but all in all good news for team blue.
in AZ1. Lets do the numbers
37 That’s number of maps I have seen in on AZ redistricting and about 1/2 make things worse for the D’s in AZ1. Your guess is as good as mine right now on what the map will look like and what the changes are .
44 That’s the % of votes the President got in AZ1 in 2008.
44 That’s the % of votes Kirkpatrick got in AZ1 in 2010.
62 That’s how old Anne Kirkpatrick will be in 2012. This is a big district that requires alot of time & effort to campaign in.
800,000 that’s advantage congresswoman Kirkpatrick had in spending in 2010. I suspect that number will be reversed in 2012.
I admire her for getting into this race but due to the map, financial resources, the district and the uncertainty its seems a steep hill to climb.
Does anybody have any idea as to whether the Hopi and Navajo reservations will stay split under a new map? I know there’s always been tension between the tribes, but does that really need to lead to such nasty looking districts?
I imagine this district will shrink a bit in total area. I wonder if the parts of the district it will be losing are the more Republican parts or not.
In any case, this has always been a swingy area, and Kirkpatrick didn’t embarrass herself last year, so this is a welcome development.
As I’ve mentioned before, I’m very curious to see how the numbers in Arizona shift this year with McCain not on the ballot…I strongly believe Obama would have won the state in 2008 had his opponent not been McCain. Especially when you compare it to the massive shifts that happened in the nearby states of New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, and even Utah.
the commenters on DailyKos for this story had a much more negative reaction about Kirkpatrick.
Does this make her damaged beyond repair with the Navajo population?
trying to figure out exactly how the election will go two years in advance seems kind of silly. for now we have someone with name rec, fundraising ability and is reasonably popular – based on her two elections for this seat.
it will be a different district and a very different year and she’s running against a freshman who will not be well-known in this giant district. this will be a decent shot for a pickup and at this point, we don’t get much more. Go Anne!