Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos/SEIU (3/24-27, Hawaii voters, no trendlines):
Ed Case (D): 52
Linda Lingle (R): 35
Undecided: 12Colleen Hanabusa (D): 51
Linda Lingle (R): 40
Undecided: 9Mufi Hannemann (D): 47
Linda Lingle (R): 40
Undecided: 14Mazie Hirono (D): 52
Linda Lingle (R): 40
Undecided: 9Ed Case (D): 50
Duke Aiona (R): 35
Undecided: 15Colleen Hanabusa (D): 48
Duke Aiona (R): 43
Undecided: 9Mufi Hannemann (D): 42
Duke Aiona (R): 42
Undecided: 16Mazie Hirono (D): 49
Duke Aiona (R): 42
Undecided: 10Ed Case (D): 53
Charles Djou (R): 35
Undecided: 12Colleen Hanabusa (D): 50
Charles Djou (R): 40
Undecided: 10Mufi Hannemann (D): 46
Charles Djou (R): 40
Undecided: 14Mazie Hirono (D): 51
Charles Djou (R): 40
Undecided: 9
(MoE: ±3.3%)
In the wake of Sen. Dan Akaka’s retirement announcement, Beltway pundits started talking up the chances of Linda Lingle, the recently termed-out Republican governor. This chatter ignored quite a few things: the fact that Lingle left office pretty unpopular after eight years (41-56 job approvals); that 2010’s massive red tide failed to wash up on Hawaii’s shores (GOP Rep. Charles Djou lost to Colleen Hanabusa; Dem Neil Abercrombie won the gubernatorial race over then-Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona in a landslide); and that a dude named Barack Obama would be on the top of the ticket next year (the native son won by 45 points in 2008).
Now, to imagine Lingle might be competitive, there’s one more piece of evidence that will have to get ignored: this poll. With her underwater 41-51 favorable rating, she can’t crack 40% against any Democrat, even the least popular among them, former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (39-48 favorables). And indeed Hanabusa, Rep. Mazie Hirono, and ex-Rep. Ed Case all clear 50 against her. If Lingle’s own internal polls are showing markedly different numbers, then I think she’s deluding herself. Of course, Aiona fares only slightly better, while Djou does no better than Lingle, but if Hawaii Republicans want to take on a hopeless suicide mission, they’re welcome to do so.
One final note: If you weren’t familiar with Hawaii politics, you might take a look at these numbers and say, “Wow! Who is this Ed Case guy? He performs the best of all the Dems, and does really well among independent voters!” These things are true, but don’t be fooled: Ed Case has a long conservative pedigree as scion of the (now-defunct) Democratic Leadership Committee, the same corporatist outfit which more or less gave Joe Lieberman a reason for being. I won’t spill a lot of electrons on him right now, but I’m sure commenters will regale you with his greatest hits. I am somewhat surprised to see his favorables are so strong (51-30), despite running in a nasty special election last year which tarnished both Djou (40-47) and Hanabusa (45-41).
But while these numbers might offer Case an “electability” argument, all Dems are clearly capable of winning – and what’s more, Case would have to make it out of a primary first. So it’s important to look at each Dem’s favorables among members of their own party:
Hirono: 72-16
Hanabusa: 65-19
Case: 50-30
Hannemann: 44-44
That’s going to be tough for Case to pull off (and Hannemann, too – his negative primary against Abercrombie last year seems to be hurting him). But Hirono and Hanabusa should talk, though, and figure out which of them ought to run, because in a multi-way race, Case could definitely sneak through, and we definitely do not want that.
From what I’ve heard, Djou’s giving Lingle first dibs here and, should she pass, he’ll likely enter. So…maybe Aiona’s third in line? Ironically, he performs the best of the three GOP-ers, even though he’s actually the most conservative. My hunch is Lingle won’t run and Djou will jump in. I do believe, however, that all four of those Democrats will probably run. Case’s ceiling is probably below 40%, but he could still totally eek-out a plurality victory.
Hirono and Lingle.
…on having been the first person to post on SSP, in a comment thread back when it was first announced that Akaka would retire, the point that Lingle’s ratings were underwater. I remember everyone here was just assuming Lingle would be strong, making me wonder what really was her standing, so I looked it up.
This just confirms what I figured back then, that Lingle would be in the low 40s against all serious Democratic comers.
This seat is safe D, period.
I knew my former governor would struggle in a federal race, but wow this is just embarrassing for her. Can’t believe Aiona actually performs a few points better than her, considering the crushing defeat he took last year. This seat is beyond safe for us, I doubt Lingle even runs (and Aiona has said the only office he will ever run for is governor again). Djou could be the sacrificial lamb but he sounded like he was done with politics after getting bounced last November, and I don’t think he wants the footnote of his career to be getting crushed in a presidential year. He couldn’t even hold his Honolulu district, he’d get blown out on the neighbor islands. If Hanabusa runs Djou might decide to make another try at the congressional seat instead.
So this all really boils down to the Democratic primary. Three things appear clear to me: 1) Hannemann did more than just weaken himself in his primary run for governor, he became radioactive. 2) Hirono and Hanabusa are very in tune with the establishment, and I can’t see them running against each other. 3) Ed Case doesn’t have a good shot, but he does have a chance if Republicans pile in to the open Dem primary. Our best bet at keeping him out is having one strong frontrunner…if like 10 Democrats end up running Case might sneak through.
Very good new. Between the republicans very little chance to doubt. D Aiona seems now the frontrunner. By very low margin but consistently in every result. That mean surely C Djou can begin to think about a gubernatorial bid in 2014 or 2018.
If we compare the results of the last races (Abercrombie vs Aiona 57.8% – 40.8% and Hanabusa vs Djou 49.6% – 40.6%) with the results of this poll, we can think about Abercrombie doing better than Case if he would be included in this poll.
I doubt seriously Ed Case is the true democratic frontrunner for this race. I think we can have more democrats in Hawaii improving the numbers of Ed Case. The question is find them opening a little the minds. I would like to see numbers for E Shinseki, J Waihee and B Schatz. Unfortunately not this time, but I lose not the hope for other time.
I’m only worried about this race for the Democratic primary, and it’s really hard to see both Reps. Hanabusa and Hirono running. I would imagine Hanabusa will defer to Hirono.
She was just elected to her current job, and since Daniel Inouye is pretty clearly not going to be around much longer, she can afford to wait.
Why close our mind to Hirono and Hanabusa when both appear not as strong as we would wish? I imagine fast Rasmussen giving a tie for Aiona in some poll. And then?
Personally I want some person that gives guarantee and make the race totally, totally safe. Whitout doubts. I want some person that frighten away all the republicans, and make the race need not money (even in the primary and in the general), keeping the democratic money for other races, like the presidential.
It is obvious N Abercrombie would be one of these persons because he crush Aiona in 2010 by 17 points. I have not doubt he would do better than Case if he would be included in this poll. There are more persons like him? We know not. But maybe. It is question of checking in new polls.
Without more information now I would support a bid of N Abercrombie over a bid of M Hirono or C Hanabusa. Schatz would become governor and a new Lieutenant Governor would be appointed, if I’m not wrong. No trouble in the democratic primary for the senate. No chance for Case. No US House open seats. This would be the kind of solution that I want for this open seat.
congressional delegation.