Discussion is already underway on the new maps for Virginia’s state House and Senate that the legislature just proposed. Fortunately, map guru jeffmd extracted much more readable maps from the shapefiles provided by the state. There are actually two Senate proposals, one from Sen. John Watkins (R) and the other from Sen. Janet Howell (D).
Howell:
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Watkins:
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Detail maps of Northern Virginia and the Hampton Roads areas (including versions which show aggregate political performance from the 2009 Gov., Lt. Gov., and AG results, plus the 2008 presidential results) are below the fold.
Howell Northern Virginia:
Watkins Northern Virginia:
Howell Hampton Roads:
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Watkins Hampton Roads:
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Apparently pretty looking districts are more important than healthcare, education, reproductive rights etc….
http://www.bluevirginia.us/dia…
This is way easier to understand than the DLE website!
If I didn’t have to write a cover letter for a job app due today, I’d spend an hour on this thing.
One question, what’s the overall Dem/Rep projection for each map?
I’m going to do a little analysis. Overall, it’s going to be pretty brutal for Democrats in the House of Delegates over the next decade.
The Democrats currently have 39 seats in the House. Three of them have had their districts removed (Bud Phillips in the 2nd, Ward Armstrong in the 10th, and Paula Miller in the 87th). In addition, Al Pollard in the 99th is retiring, which is pretty much a guaranteed Republican pickup.
That puts the Democrats at 35 seats. 28 of those seats are safe, because any district that voted for Deeds is almost assuredly going to elect a Democrat. (Overall, the Republicans left NoVa Dems alone, preferring to go after Democrats in Hampton Roads and SWVA, while attempting to shore up the seats they picked up in 2009.) In addition, the 12th went from 58% Deeds to 49% Deeds, but the reason for that drop is Deeds’ home territory was removed from the district; I would count it as safe, as it’s based in Blacksburg. So that’s 29 seats.
This leaves 6 Democrats in >51% McDonnell districts. The 37th and 41st are in Fairfax and both gave Deeds 47%, so I would count them as pretty secure. The 100th is based on the Eastern Shore, and the incumbent there, Lynwood Lewis, has enough personal popularity to survive there fairly easily (and his district was slightly improved with new precincts in Norfolk).
That gives the Democrats a pretty solid base of 32 seats. The remaining three districts are trouble: Robin Abbott in the 93rd saw her district shrink from 47% Deeds to 43%. Everyone else is writing her off as done for; I think she can still win, but it would be tough. The other two districts, however, are much trickier. Both the Isle of Wight-based 64th and extreme southwestern 4th are gone the second the incumbents retire, and a strong challenger could unseat the incumbents.
As for offense… It doesn’t look good. Obviously Dems have to go after all the NoVa seats, because that’s where they do best. Tom Rust in the 86th remains the most vulnerable Republican, though he saw his district go from 49% to 47% Deeds. The 34th, 42nd, and 67th districts are also ones that should be contested, though again, the numbers have been massaged to get an extra point or two of Republican performance. Of the three new seats in NoVa, the 2nd and 87th would be good targets; they clock in at 41% and 42% Deeds, respectively. They’d be tough to win, but not impossible. Beyond that, there might be outside shots at the 13th, 21st, and 31st. So the Democrats are probably locked into somewhere between 32-40 seats for the next ten years, unless they start to do better again in the more rural parts of the state. Pretty sad, but what can you do?
As best I could I drew out the proposed Senate districts under the Howell plan using Dave’s App. Some caution on these numbers, the Howell plan does split precincts and I don’t think Dave’s App allows for this (if it does my apologies).
1
58% Obama/42% McCain
55% White, 31% Black, 8% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 59% White, 29% Black, 7% Hispanic, 4% Asian
Avg. 2000-20009 52% Dem/48% Rep
2
70% Obama/30% McCain
38% White, 51% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 41% White, 50% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 65% Dem/35% Rep
3
38% Obama/62% McCain
81% White, 13% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 82% White, 12% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 39% Dem/62% Rep
4
39% Obama/61% McCain
77% White, 15% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 78% White, 15% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 38% Dem/62% Rep
5
74% Obama/26% McCain
35% White, 55% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 38% White, 53% Black, 5% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 69% Dem/32% Rep
6
57% Obama/43% McCain
60% White, 26% Black, 8% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 62% White, 25% Black, 7% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 54% Dem/46% Rep
7
52% Obama/48% McCain
55% White, 28% Black, 8% Hispanic, 7% Asian
VAP 59% White, 24% Black, 7% Hispanic, 7% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 52% Dem/48% Rep
8
63% Obama/37% McCain
53% White, 30% Black, 10% Hispanic, 5% Asian
VAP 57% White, 28% Black, 9% Hispanic, 5% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 56% Dem/44% Rep
9
75% Obama/25% McCain
38% White, 55% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 41% White, 52% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 71% Dem/29% Rep
10
39% Obama/61% McCain
76% White, 15% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 78% White, 16% Black, 3% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 37% Dem/63% Rep
11
42% Obama/58% McCain
68% White, 25% Black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 70% White, 25% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 40% Dem/60% Rep
12
41% Obama/59% McCain
77% White, 11% Black, 4% Hispanic, 7% Asian
VAP 78% White, 11% Black, 3% Hispanic, 6% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 39% Dem/61% Rep
13
43% Obama/57% McCain
66% White, 21% Black, 4% Hispanic, 6% Asian
VAP 68% White, 21% Black, 4% Hispanic, 6% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 43% Dem/57% Rep
14
37% Obama/63% McCain
81% White, 9% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 83% White, 9% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 38% Dem/62% Rep
15
37% Obama/63% McCain
74% White, 22% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 75% White, 22% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 37% Dem/63% Rep
16
72% Obama/29% McCain
35% White, 53% Black, 8% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 38% White, 52% Black, 7% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 64% Dem/37% Rep
17
51% Obama/49% McCain
70% White, 17% Black, 8% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 72% White, 17% Black, 7% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 47% Dem/53% Rep
18
64% Obama/36% McCain
42% White, 52% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 44% White, 51% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 61% Dem/39% Rep
19
37% Obama/63% McCain
91% White, 4% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 92% White, 4% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 39% Dem/61% Rep
20
49% Obama/51% McCain
67% White, 28% black, 4% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 69% White, 27% Black, 3% Hispanic
Avg. 2000-2009 48% Dem/52% Rep
21
57% Obama/43% McCain
73% White, 16% Black, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian
VAP 76% White, 15% Black, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 55% Dem/45% Rep
22
51% Obama/49% McCain
65% White, 9% Black, 10% Hispanic, 13% Asian
VAP 67% White, 9% Black, 9% Hispanic, 13% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 46% Dem/54% Rep
23
37% Obama/63% McCain
80% White, 14% Black, 2% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 82% White, 14% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 39% Dem/61% Rep
24
36% Obama/64% McCain
88% White, 6% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 89% White, 7% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 35% Dem/66% Rep
25
58% Obama/43% McCain
81% White, 10% Black, 4% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 82% White, 9% Black, 3% Hispanic, 4% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 56% Dem/44% Rep
26
41% Obama/59% McCain
86% White, 3% Black, 7% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 88% White, 3% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 38% Dem/63% Rep
27
43% Obama/57% McCain
83% White, 6% Black, 7% Hispanic, 2% Asian
VAP 85% White, 6% Black, 6% Hispanic, 2% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 40% Dem/60% Rep
28
44% Obama/56% McCain
71% White, 16% Black, 7% Hispanic, 3% Asian
VAP 73% White, 16% Black, 6% Hispanic, 3% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 41% Dem/59% Rep
29
61% Obama/39% McCain
41% White, 20% Black, 28% Hispanic, 7% Asian
VAP 45% White, 20% Black, 25% Hispanic, 8% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 52% Dem/48% Rep
30
66% Obama/34% McCain
62% White, 13% Black, 16% Hispanic, 6% Asian
VAP 64% White, 12% Black, 14% Hispanic, 7% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 64% Dem/36% Rep
31
62% Obama/39% McCain
68% White, 5% Black, 12% Hispanic, 12% Asian
VAP 69% White, 5% Black, 11% Hispanic, 12% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 60% Dem/40% Rep
32
61% Obama/39% McCain
68% White, 5% Black, 9% Hispanic, 14% Asian
VAP 71% White, 5% Black, 8% Hispanic, 14% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 59% Dem/41% Rep
33
59% Obama/41% McCain
48% White, 9% Black, 20% Hispanic, 20% Asian
VAP 51% White, 9% Black, 19% Hispanic, 19% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 52% Dem/48% Rep
34
57% Obama/43% McCain
61% White, 5% Black, 11% Hispanic, 19% Asian
VAP 63% White, 5% Black, 10% Hispanic, 19% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 54% Dem/46% Rep
35
66% Obama/34% McCain
42% White, 12% Black, 26% Hispanic, 16% Asian
VAP 45% White, 12% Black, 25% Hispanic, 16% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 63% Dem/37% Rep
36
64% Obama/36% McCain
42% White, 25% Black, 22% Hispanic, 8% Asian
VAP 46% White, 24% Black, 20% Hispanic, 8% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 59% Dem/41% Rep
37
57% Obama/43% McCain
52% White, 7% Black, 15% Hispanic, 23% Asian
VAP 54% White, 7% Black, 14% Hispanic, 23% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 52% Dem/48% Rep
38
41% Obama/59% McCain
94% White, 4% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian
VAP 94% White, 4% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 47% Dem/53% Rep
39
59% Obama/41% McCain
54% White, 17% Black, 13% Hispanic, 13% Asian
VAP 57% White, 16% Black, 12% Hispanic, 13% Asian
Avg. 2000-2009 54% Dem/46% Rep
40
33% Obama/67% McCain
95% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic
VAP 95% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic
Avg. 2000-2009 38% Dem/62% Rep
Under the Howell lines:
21 Senate districts voted for Obama and have a history of voting Democratic
2 Senate districts voted for Obama but have a history of voting Republican
17 Senate districts voted for McCain and have a history of voting Republican