Public Policy Polling (PDF) (4/7-10, Pennsylvania voters, 1/3-5 in parens):
Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 51 (51)
Charlie Dent (R): 31 (31)
Undecided: 18 (18)Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 50 (49)
Jim Gerlach (R): 32 (33)
Undecided: 19 (18)Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 49 (48)
Rick Santorum (R): 37 (41)
Undecided: 13 (10)Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 51 (50)
Marc Scaringi (R): 28 (27)
Undecided: 21 (22)Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 51
Jake Corman (R): 35
Undecided: 14Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 51
Laureen Cummings (R): 32
Undecided: 17Bob Casey, Jr. (D-inc): 50
Kim Ward (R): 29
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4.0%)
What to say here? As you can see, Casey’s numbers are little changed from January, when PPP first tested the race. He’s at almost exactly 50% against everyone he faces, and no one does better than 37%. But that figure is misleadingly high: If the universally-known Rick Santorum is only at 37 right now, how can he expect to go much higher? His favorable rating (you’ll need to check PPP’s presidential poll, since they tested him there) is just 37-47, which is pretty ugly. In any event, Santorum seems pretty committed to a pointless presidential run; I’d be surprised to see him go for a rematch.
Every other potential candidate is entirely unknown, with anywhere from 75 to 84% of respondents expressing no opinion on this batch of Republicans (and among those who do know this crowd, all have negative ratings). Of course, that means someone like state Sen. Jake Corman has proverbial “room to grow,” but with Casey already at 50, he’d need to pull away people who are already willing to support the incumbent.
So my money is on Casey, despite his relatively soft job approval numbers. I think Tom Jensen has it right:
On one hand, he has weak approval numbers-only 39% of voters approve of the job he’s doing to 35% who disapprove-you can certainly get defeated with those kinds of numbers. On the other hand he leads seven potential opponents for next year that we tested against him by anywhere from 12 to 23 points-you’ll pretty much never get defeated with those kinds of numbers.
My sense is that Casey is not terribly vulnerable. Here’s the thing about his low approval numbers-Democrats aren’t in love with him. Just 55% approve of him and 22% disapprove. Generally you’ll see a Senator closer to the 70% or 80% mark within his own party so his lack of approval from the party base is what’s keeping Casey’s approval number under 40%. But even though they don’t necessarily like Casey, Democrats are still perfectly willing to vote for him-he gets 78-80% of the Democratic vote in head to head match ups against the seven Republicans we tested. And his 19% approval number with Republicans, although it may not sound like much, is actually a pretty decent amount of crossover support in this highly polarized political climate.
The GOP has had a hard time recruiting any big names, and these numbers help explain why. The biggest note of caution, I think, is the very Dem lean of this sample: 51 D, 38 R, 11 I. It was 44-37-18 in 2008. It’s hard to imagine Democrats having such a big advantage on election day next year. Nonetheless, even if you reallocated those “extra” Ds to the independent column, Casey would still out ahead, since he holds sizeable leads with indies against every candidate (except, oddly, Santorum). This is a race where you’d simply rather be Team Blue than Team Red.
remains the biggest vote-getter in the history of the state.
And, it’s only not Safe D because the presidential race could prove competitive. I expect Casey to garner 93 percent of Democrats and 55 percent of Independents, at least, so he’ll rather comfortably win here. The GOP nominee would have to be extraordinary.
D – 43
R – 36
I – 21
Casey – 96/12/57 = 57%
Republican – 4/88/43 = 43%
I’m willing to bet the Republicans end up with a third-tier challenger, like a State Senator or something.
at least that’s what i want to think
Pennsylvania has a fairly older population. When the GOP proposals for Medicare start coming into full view, Casey’s numbers will soar and the GOP numbers in this state will tank.
He is pro-life. I’m a strongly pro-choice dem. So i might say that i disprove of him in a poll. There are a lot, especially in the urban areas and their suburbs where people are like me. But almost all of us are gonna vote for us cause we only disagree on that one issue.
getting annoyed with PPP’s sampling? I like Jensen, I think he’s done a great job the last couple years, and I’m no expert on polling, but a few of his polls have had very heavy Dem leans. Of course, I hope he’s right about the breakdowns but it just seems off.
n/t
50-29 is vs. Kim Ward (whoever that is).
There’s certainly no funny business going on, for one thing. For another, you can fiddle with the numbers, and the top line is usually the same or very close. This sample could be the result for any number of reasons, like left-leaning Indies saying they are Democrats.
I’ve wondered about the results on a few, but that’s when I see Romney getting 20 percent of blacks against Obama. But you are bound to see an outlier here or there. A weird result against many good polls, and not just in the sense that they look for us, is no reason to be that skeptical, at least not now.
Was endorse Barack Obama when he did. Remember the six-week slog before the Pennsylvania primary? Clinton and Obama traversed the state, and this was in the heat of the Jeremiah Wright problem too. Casey came right out and endorsed Obama and he was one of the few politicians in PA to do so. I think this endeared him to the liberal base and won over a lot of pro-choice Democrats in the process who weren’t yet sold on him.
Number one, he can do good in ancestral Democratic areas that are trending Republican and number two, the Presidential race comes with Pittsburg and Philadelphia turnout, which further pads his margin. I’m seeing a 56-43 win for Casey.
Take a look at the breakdown by ideology, for example where you get 27/33/40 Liberal/Moderate/Conservative (compared to the exit poll’s breakdown of 23/50/27).
Honestly, in a state like Pennsylvania, where there genuinely are still a lot of registered Democrats who don’t really vote for Democratic candidates, that shouldn’t be horribly surprising.