Making predictions about elections is pretty fun, you could say. I've been trying to since 2006, and I haven't really improved at it at all. But this time, I'm going to put all of my calls down in one place, so that way I can't change them later and tell people I totally saw Lee Terry's/John Yarmuth's/etc SHOCKING UPSET LOSS coming.
I'm going to split these into two different scenarios, one of which I'll call the “Okay” scenario and one of which I'll call the “Great Republican Tea Avalanche of 2010” scenario, since that sounds pretty impressive. And because there's all sorts of polls floating around that probably are less accurate than the results I would get by calling people in the phone book at random. Yeah, guy who says he's 1 point behind Bennie Thompson, that's your internal I'm talking about. Anyways, even though a lot of these here polls are total garbage, I don't feel comfortable ruling out the possibility of a large Republican win.
As for the possibility of a weaker Republican win than expected, I'm defining a “good night” for the Dems purely on a selfish basis, and I wouldn't be surprised if other folks here are too. If Baron Hill, Russ Feingold, and Tom Perriello make it, I'll be happy. Come up with your own “good Dem” version, people!
Let's kick things off with the really bad one first.
Great Republican Tea Avalanche of 2010
House
Rep. Pickups
- AL-2
- AZ-1 (Rogue dentist is a pretty great phrase, I wish I had business cards that said that)
- AZ-5
- AR-1
- AR-2
- CA-11
- CO-3
- CO-4
- FL-2
- FL-8 (Whatever. I never liked Grayson anyways. He should have formed a caucus with Dan Boren.)
- FL-22
- FL-24
- GA-2
- GA-8
- ID-1 (PVI is not destiny, but Walt Minnick shouldn't make it in this kind of scenario)
- IL-11
- IL-14
- IL-17
- IN-2 (Joe Donnelly should be losing but seems to be ahead; he's screwed in a major wave)
- IN-8
- IN-9 (I can only expect Mike Sodrel to switch parties and campaign for the Dem nom in 2012)
- KS-3
- IA-2
- KY-6 (John Yarmuth will be pretty lonely)
- LA-3
- MD-1
- MA-10 (I hesitate to add this one even if it's a good election for the Republicans; Scott Brown or not, I think their strength in MA is exaggerated)
- MI-1 (Dan Benishek and Larry Bucshon are the go-to guys for a Republican rebuttal if Pres. Obama gives any more speeches about healthcare)
- MI-7
- MS-1 (Even the power of Travis Childers' mustache cannot repel firepower of this magnitude)
- MS-4 (Gene Taylor gets more time to work on figuring out the many differences between chocolate milk and oil slicks)
- NV-3 (Regardless of the result in WA-3, it's possible at least some voters will be Giving Congress Heck)
- NH-1
- NH-2
- NJ-3 (Jon Runyan's first two policy priorities: donkeys for all homeowners and doing something about that awful Dred Scott stuff)
- NM-2
- NY-19 (something something Not Still the One joke something something)
- NY-20
- NY-23 (Congressman-elect Doug Hoffman! Oh, wait, never mind)
- NY-29
- NC-8
NC-11(Heh heh, just kidding)- ND-AL (Earl Pomeroy isn't Barack Mason Pelosi, unfortunately, nobody cares)
- OH-1
- OH-6
- OH-15
- OH-16
- OH-18 (Hell of a meltdown in Ohio)
OK-2(Look, if we lose the House, the least the Republicans could do in return is take out Dan Boren. Nobody likes him. Nobody wants him on our dodgeball team.)- PA-3
- PA-7 (We'll get this one back if it's a loss this time around)
- PA-8
- PA-10
- PA-11
- SC-5
- SD-AL
- TN-4 (God damn it, this is getting depressing)
- TN-6
- TN-8 (Saving grace: user andgarden won't have to eat his/her shoes)
- TX-17 (Even in my “Okay” version, Edwards won't make it; but I think this is going to be surprisingly close)
- TX-23
- VA-2 (Who cares? Everyone just wants to know what happens to Perriello, am I right?)
- VA-5 (Win or lose, Tom will be back.)
- WA-3 (See NV-3)
- WI-7 (Edit: Forgot to put this one in initially.)
- WI-8 (Reid Ribble. I hate alliteration.)
- WV-1
Dem. Pickups
- DE-AL
- IL-10 (WAA polls: funny, or the funniest thing ever? I don't know.)
- LA-02 (Joe Cao should consider becoming a Democrat, or at least pulling a Linc Chafee)
Senate
Rep. Pickups
- Arkansas
- Colorado
- Illinois
- Indiana (Dan Coats replaces Bob Bennett in the Senate Boring Old Republican Dudes Club)
- Nevada (I don't even)
- North Dakota
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
Hilarious Comic Interlude You Won't Understand If You Don't Understand the Significance of the Phrase “I wonder what's for dinner?”
Russ Feingold: My friends, this peace is what all true incumbents strive for.
National Democrats: I just wonder what the Republicans are up to!
DSCC: Senator Feingold, Ron Johnson and his minions have seized your Senate seat!
Russ Feingold: Hmm…?
Gubernatorial Elections
Rep. Pickups
- Florida (Thugs and criminals!)
- Illinois
- Iowa
- Kansas
- New Mexico
- Maine
- Michigan
- Ohio
- Oklahoma
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Tennessee
- Wisconsin
- Wyoming
Dem. Pickups
- California
- Hawaii
- Minnesota
Ind. Pickups
- Rhode Island
Hey, kids, wasn't that fun? Well, not really. This next one is kind of good though. If you consider slightly less major House losses 'good', that is.
Average Republican Wave of 2010 (Okay Scenario)
House
Rep. Pickups
- AZ-1
- AR-2
- CO-4
- FL-2
- FL-8 (Grayson wouldn't be here if not for “Taliban Dan”)
- FL-24
- GA-8 (Marshall's just in a bad district)
- IL-11
- IL-17 (Peculiar that I think Bill Foster over in the 14th has a better chance than Phil Hare)
- IN-8 (Even Dr. Steve Brule could probably win here this year as a Republican. For your health!)
- IN-9 (If Hill does win, whoever vandalized hoosierdem's lawn signs is going to be PISSED.)
- KS-3
- LA-3
- MD-1 (Kratovil still has a chance, albeit small. Remarkable.)
- MI-1
- MS-1
- NV-3 (Going to be close, but even if Reid wins I'm not sure about Titus)
- NH-1
- NH-2 (Hesitated for a long time on this one, but I just don't think Kuster pulls this off)
- NJ-3 (I wish it was goats instead of donkeys. Goats are cooler. You're not cool, Jon Runyan.)
- NM-2
- NY-19
- NY-29
- NC-8 (Kissell is too wobbly for his own good. If he does lose, he's one headache we won't have to deal with again.)
- ND-AL
- OH-01
- OH-15
- OH-18
- PA-03
- PA-07 (Hard call. A lot depends on the Senate outcome; if Sestak outperforms the polls, Lentz might pull this off.)
- PA-08 (Surprised by Murphy's sudden collapse… too surprised, in fact. Not sure about the polling here.)
- PA-10
- PA-11 (If Paul Kanjorski manages once again to return from the dead, Lou Barletta should probably just give up on this whole politics thing and find something else to do with his time.)
- SC-5
- TN-6
- TN-8
- TX-17 (I think this will be close, as I said earlier; Flores has had a lot of missteps in the past month)
- TX-23
- VA-2
- VA-5
- WA-3 (Possible to see an upset here. Just very unlikely.)
- WI-7
- WI-8
Dem. Pickups
- DE-AL
- FL-25 (Rivera sucks that much)
- HI-1
- IL-10
- LA-02
I'm pretty bad at math, but I think this means the Republicans actually fall just short of taking the House. Maybe that means I don't know what I'm talking about. I don't know, but my gut is to go with this list. If I'm wrong, well, I'm some guy from Southern Indiana that raises chickens and thinks loud noises are funny; I have no dignity, let alone credibility or reputation to risk.
Senate
Rep. Pickups
- Arkansas
- Illinois (I don't know how this one turns out, but I'm leaning Kirk. Both of these candidates are awful.)
- Indiana
- North Dakota (If McAdams wins in Alaska, he and John Hoeven…mustache joke… something..)
- Pennsylvania (Sestak gives a scare, but not a big enough one)
- Wisconsin
Special Commentary: Dem HOLDS
- Colorado (Very close. Gut call says Bennet, he has to like that EV advantage PPP showed.)
- Nevada (If Jon Ralston is wrong, a lot of people are going to look like idiots. I already look like one, though, so I'm NOT SCARED.
Gubernatorial Elections
Rep. Pickups
- Illinois
- Iowa (Branstad gets to be a kingmaker two years from now! Or something! Sarah Palin! Breathless primary coverage! POINTLESS NOISE!)
- Kansas
- New Mexico
- Maine
- Michigan
- Oklahoma
- Pennsylvania
- Tennesseee (Basil Marceaux.com. What could have been..?)
- Wisconsin (I blame Jim Doyle.)
- Wyoming
Dem. Pickups
- California (California! Uber alles! California uber alles! The funny thing is, Jerry Brown never was President, soon or otherwise.)
- Connecticut
- Hawaii
- Florida (Nervous about this one? So am I!)
- Minnesota
- Vermont (edit)
Ind. Pickups
- Rhode Island (Lincoln Chafee does what he wants. If you need instructions on how to be an independent, check out the enclosed instruction book.)
I'm hoping I'm wrong and we win all of these. That'd be alright. Or some of them, I'd settle for that too. Feel free to post any thoughts or disparaging comments about my stab at predicting the future; this is my first try, so I'd appreciate the feedback.
Also, I made sure not to forget WY-GOV, but there's probably some obvious race somewhere I forgot to add instead.