Author: Crisitunity

Survey USA (10/20-21, likely voters, 9/7-9 in parens):

Darcy Burner (D): 50 (44)

Dave Reichert (R-inc): 46 (54)

(MoE: ±4%)

This race has spent most of this cycle at the top of the races-to-watch list for the blogosphere, after Darcy Burner captivated the netroots in 2006 en route to losing to one-term incumbent Dave Reichert in this D+2 district by a few points, and then continued running for 2008 without missing a beat. However, a lot of blogospherians (including us at SSP) started worrying a bit in the immediate wake of the financial crisis, when other netroots-backe rematch candidates in swing districts (Larry Kissell, Eric Massa, Dan Seals) suddenly started to climb into the lead but Darcy Burner continued to languish (trailing not just in a Research 2000 poll but a Democratic internal as well).

However, two subsequent internal polls showed Burner with a lead, and then Burner posted titanic fundraising numbers for the third quarter; the one thing she didn’t have in her arsenal was a public poll having shown her ahead. Well, finally, we’ve got one; she’s up 4 in the latest KING5-sponsored SurveyUSA poll, a sharp reversal of fortune from her 10-point deficit last time, taken during the afterglow of the GOP convention. With that in mind, Swing State Project is returning this race to “Tossup” status.

It’s unclear whether this race was moving at the same speed as the other similarly-situated races and R2K just happened to miss that, or if this race truly did take longer to surge because, as I’ve speculated before, the tech-heavy WA-08 is better insulated from the financial crisis (up to the point where people open their 401(k) statements). Either way, though, we’re starting to look pretty good in this race. (And if the NRCC’s decision to dump $454,000 into this race, the largest component of their multi-million dollar ad buy today, is any indication, the GOP knows it too.)

One other developing happening in this race: there’s a kerfuffle, helped along by the Seattle Times (the more conservative of Seattle’s two papers), over Burner’s degree from Harvard. Nobody’s disputing that she graduated, just parsing whether or not she double-majored in computer science and economics. (Short answer, apparently they don’t even have ‘majors’ at Harvard.) I suspect this will have the same effect as the Reichert-cheating-at-media-buying scandal that came a few days before: it’ll rile up the partisans but whoosh right past the few remaining undecideds.

Ivan Moore for Anchorage Press (10/17-19, likely voters, 10/3-6 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 46 (49)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51 (51)

Don Young (R-inc): 43 (42)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

After the initial shock of Ted Stevens’ indictment wore off (giving Mark Begich a huge boost), it seems like voters have been more and more willing to give Stevens some of the benefit of the doubt until a verdict is handed down, as the numbers in this race have drawn back to a tossup. With the case now in the hands of the jurors, it looks like we’re likely to have a verdict (or a mistrial) before Election Day, so whatever happens in the jury box may well decide the election.

Things look a little more settled in the House race, where Ethan Berkowitz continues to lead Don Young by high double single-digits. One note for caution, though, while Berkowitz’s favorables are as high as they’ve ever been in an Ivan Moore poll, the same is true of Young: Young’s positive/negative rating is 44-47, also his best showing in an Ivan Moore poll… but Young’s position in the head-to-head poll hasn’t improved much. Maybe the good folks of Alaska are starting to fondly recall why they love their own little grizzled 1890s prospector, consarn it… but still plan to turn the page on him.

Perhaps most noteworthy in this poll is the presidential numbers, showing Obama climbing much closer to McCain at 53-42 (reverting closer to the pre-Palin numbers, down from as much as a 54-35 McCain lead during the GOP convention). Perhaps the novelty effect of an Alaskan on the ticket is starting to wear off.

Elway (10/16-19, registered voters, 9/8-10):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 51 (48)

Dino Rossi (Prefers GOP Party): 39 (44)

(MoE: ±5%)

This comes as a bit of a surprise: after month upon month of ties and minuscule Gregoire leads in Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polling (with a brief boomlet for Rossi during the peak of Palinmania), local pollster Elway shows up with a poll with Gregoire blowing off the doors with a 12-point lead.

Interestingly, Gregoire seems to be picking up a bit of Republican support. Gregoire is supported by 85% of Democrats (which is consistent with other polls I’ve seen, and pointed to her main problem: holding down the number of Obama/Rossi ticket-splitters), but Rossi may have lost a bit of his headlock on the state’s Republicans, as this poll reports his support among GOP Partiers as only 87%.

I can’t tell from the writeup whether this poll identified Rossi as “Republican” or “prefers GOP Party,” as he appears on the ballot (last time around, Elway tested it both ways and found that Rossi performed significantly better when identified as “GOP” rather than “Republican”); if Elway used only “Republican” this time, that may be what’s making the difference here. Although Elway has an excellent reputation in Washington political circles, their numbers have tended to be quite different from the robo-pollers; we’ll have to wait till Election Day to see who has the better model.

Research 2000 for Concord Monitor (10/17-19, likely voters, 9/22-24 in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50 (50)

John Sununu (R-inc): 43 (41)

(MoE: ±4%)

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 48 (44)

Jeb Bradley (R): 43 (43)

(MoE: ±6%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 49 (47)

Jennifer Horn (R): 35 (34)

(MoE: ±6%)

Things are looking pretty stable in New Hampshire in the newest round of Research 2000 polls of that state for the Concord Monitor. Probably most notable is the improvement for Carol Shea-Porter, who has posted mostly underwhelming poll numbers this cycle; however, she’s up to a five-point lead from a one-point lead last month. (With a 6% margin of error, though… each CD’s sample seems to be half of the statewide sample… anything could be going on there.)

On the Senate side, John Sununu has gained a couple points on Jeanne Shaheen, probably on the back of major advertising expenditures (he’s got a big warchest; now’s the time to spend it). He’s left with an awful lot of ground to make up over the next few weeks, though.

Obama leads McCain 50-43 at the top of the ticket. And as a bonus, I know everyone has been losing a lot of sleep worrying over the New Hampshire governor’s race; incumbent Dem John Lynch leads John Joe Kenney 60-34.

PPP (10/18-19, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 48 (45)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (44)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

This week’s PPP snapshot of the North Carolina governor’s race gives Bev Perdue a bit more breathing room. While PPP has generally been the most favorable pollster to Perdue, remember that they had her down by 3 at the start of the month. It seems like some of Obama’s momentum is finally transferring to Perdue, though, as PPP observes that she’s now leading among the under-30 crowd by 55-33; in previous polls, she had lagged Obama and Hagan in the young demo.

UPDATE: Civitas (R) also released governor’s race data today; Perdue and McCrory are tied at 43 each (last month, McCrory led 43-41). That’s sort of good news, too, as Civitas tends to be more favorable to McCrory and Perdue hasn’t led in a Civitas poll since August.

PPP (10/18-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jill Long Thompson (D): 36

Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 57

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Man, this Indiana race is a tease. Thompson will occasionally pop up within the margin of error, and then the next poll will always be something like this one. (PPP says Thompson’s problems start with her pulling in only 64% of Democrats.) This poll, however, isn’t much worse than the overall Pollster composite, which is now at 52-37. Bear in mind this is the same sample that just gave Obama a 48-46 edge in freakin’ Indiana, so coattails aren’t helping JLT at all.

I hate to sound like I’m starting to do a victory dance about five yards shy of the end zone, but for practical purposes, the presidential race is all but over. (John King from CNN just reported that the McCain campaign has more or less ruled out the possibility of winning Colorado along with Iowa and New Mexico, which is tantamount to ruling out the possibility of winning the election. King reports Team McCain’s considers its last hope to be a triple-bank-shot approach of holding all the other battleground states and somehow picking up Pennsylvania.)

That doesn’t absolve anyone of doing the hard work of GOTVing, of course; it just should lead to some discussion of what we might do with the Obama campaign’s gigantic financial bounty. Considering that I write for Swing State Project, you might assume (correctly) that I would call for some of that money to be released to be spent on downballot races. The Obama campaign has seemingly read my mind, as he seems serious about not just bringing with him the 60-seat Senate and progressive-heavy House that he’ll need to enact his agenda, but even building at the state legislature level.

The Washington Post is reporting, in an aside in a piece of Obama’s advertising plans, that some of the campaign’s money may go to the DSCC and DCCC:

The campaign has raised so much money that it is considering passing some along to Democratic Party committees to try to help grow the party’s majorities in Congress, according to a campaign source.

Marc Ambinder also reports that the DNC may be moving money to state legislative races (as much as $20 million), especially in key contests like the New York Senate, Ohio House, and Texas House. This is, to my mind, extremely important, as expanding state legislative majorities serves to build the Democratic bench and Democratic brand, and will help establish as much Democratic control as possible over the 2010 redistricting process… one more example of how both Obama and Dean are playing 3-D chess after decades of Democratic committees playing tic-tac-toe. (H/t Kos.)

Which brings me to one more item on my wish list: that Obama himself, in the last week of the campaign, hold some rallies in Mississippi and Georgia, even if it means passing up the chance to try to nail down, say, the EVs of Indiana or West Virginia. Part of that, of course, stems from the need to call attention to and bolster enthusiasm for the campaigns of Ronnie Musgrove and Jim Martin, either of whom could be that Senate Seat #60. But there’s also the sheer symbolic power of it: the nation’s first African-American president marching confidently into the reddest corners of the Deep South, and making his last stand there.

PPP (10/18-19, likely voters, 10/11-12 in parentheses):

Kay Hagan (D): 49 (46)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 42 (44)

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Usually you don’t see public pollsters use phrases like “annihilating” in their poll write-ups, but PPP just went there (“Hagan is annihilating Dole among suburban voters, 56-38.”). It’s hard to tell if last week’s sample was a statistical blip or not (Hagan led +9 and +8 in the two weeks before); the fact that her lead among African-Americans dipped to 78-12 last week (and is now back up to 84-7) suggests that it probably was.

I’m glad to see PPP so relentlessly polling their home state (especially with such gigantic sample sizes), as North Carolina is probably the hottest state in this election, with not just NC-Sen but also the close governor’s race and presidential swing state status. At the top of the ticket, Obama leads McCain 51-44 (with McCain now leading among white voters by only 55-39). Governor’s race numbers will come out tomorrow.

Mason-Dixon for Casper Star-Tribune (10/13-14, likely voters):

Gary Trauner (D): 44

Cynthia Lummis (R): 43

David Herbert (L): 4

(n = 625)

Apparently Mason-Dixon liked what they saw with Research 2000‘s poll last week of the at-large representative’s race in Wyoming, because they reproduced the exact same numbers. The most noteworthy difference here is the inclusion of Libertarian David Herbert, which explains where some of that unaccounted-for 13% from the R2K poll may be going.

There’s still some bad news for Trauner: of the 9% who remain undecided in this poll, 75% are Republicans. (Only 16% are Democrats and 9% are independents.) On the other hand, there’s some good news, too: Mason-Dixon polled this race for the Star-Tribune at this point two years ago, and Trauner trailed Barbara Cubin by 7%, but went on to lose by less than 1,000 votes.

(H/T: Andy Dufresne)

Bennett, Petts, and Normington for Progress Illinois (10/15-16, likely voters):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 50

Marty Ozinga (R): 29

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Looks like Daily Kos has a bit of competition on the blogs-commissioning-polls front: Illinois local blog Progress Illinois (sponsored by the Illinois SEIU) has ordered polls of the two hottest House races in Illinois. The IL-11 poll is extremely good news; there had been some worries that the Halvorson internal from a few days ago taken by Anzalone Liszt was a little too good to be true (at 48-29), but these numbers almost exactly match. Money was the one asset that Ozinga had and it kept him competitive for many months, but with his fundraising numbers trailing off and Ozinga’s big fundraising dinner with Dick Cheney last week called off so Cheney could go get his heart rebooted, Ozinga’s chances seem to be circling the drain.

UPDATE: Swing State Project has upgraded IL-11 to Lean Democratic.

Bennett, Petts, and Normington for Progress Illinois (10/15-16, likely voters):

Dan Seals (D): 41

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 47

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Things don’t look quite as good further north in the 10th, as Dan Seals trails incumbent Mark Kirk by 6. This is pretty close to R2K’s poll from a few weeks ago (Kirk up 44-38), but a mirror image to SurveyUSA‘s subsequent poll (Seals up 52-44). It’s still encouraging to see Kirk well below 50, but it looks like this one will go down to the wire, with Seals heavily dependent on Obama coattails.