Bennett, Petts, and Normington for Progress Illinois (10/15-16, likely voters):
Debbie Halvorson (D): 50
Marty Ozinga (R): 29
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Looks like Daily Kos has a bit of competition on the blogs-commissioning-polls front: Illinois local blog Progress Illinois (sponsored by the Illinois SEIU) has ordered polls of the two hottest House races in Illinois. The IL-11 poll is extremely good news; there had been some worries that the Halvorson internal from a few days ago taken by Anzalone Liszt was a little too good to be true (at 48-29), but these numbers almost exactly match. Money was the one asset that Ozinga had and it kept him competitive for many months, but with his fundraising numbers trailing off and Ozinga’s big fundraising dinner with Dick Cheney last week called off so Cheney could go get his heart rebooted, Ozinga’s chances seem to be circling the drain.
UPDATE: Swing State Project has upgraded IL-11 to Lean Democratic.
Bennett, Petts, and Normington for Progress Illinois (10/15-16, likely voters):
Dan Seals (D): 41
Mark Kirk (R-inc): 47
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Things don’t look quite as good further north in the 10th, as Dan Seals trails incumbent Mark Kirk by 6. This is pretty close to R2K’s poll from a few weeks ago (Kirk up 44-38), but a mirror image to SurveyUSA‘s subsequent poll (Seals up 52-44). It’s still encouraging to see Kirk well below 50, but it looks like this one will go down to the wire, with Seals heavily dependent on Obama coattails.