Author: Crisitunity

Siena College (9/11-17, likely voters):

SD-03

Brian Foley (D): 40

Caesar Trunzo (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4.9%)

SD-07

Craig Johnson (D-inc): 49

Barbara Donno (R): 25

(MoE: ±4.9%)

SD-15

Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D): 42

Serphin Maltese (R-inc): 42

(MoE: ±4.9%)

SD-48

Darrel Aubertine (D-inc): 51

David Renzi (R): 31

(MoE: ±4.7%)

SD-56

Richard Dollinger (D): 38

Joseph Robach (R-inc): 49

(MoE: ±4.7%)

SD-61

Joseph Mesi (D): 40

Michael Ranzenhofer (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.6%)

The New York Senate is the last bulwark for the Republicans in New York, and Democrats have steadily chipped away at it. Republicans currently have a 31-29 edge, with 2 vacancies (one of which was the seat held by Joe Bruno, GOP senate leader since time immemorial).

New polling by Siena of six of the most hotly contested Senate seats suggests that the Dems are poised to take over the chamber in 2008. First, assume that the two vacancies are retained by the Dems and GOP respectively (SD-13 is a safe Dem district in Queens; SD-43, Bruno’s old seat, is in GOP-leaning Albany suburbs, and not a sure bet to stay red, although it wasn’t polled). That would push the vote count to 32-30 in favor of the GOP.

However, these polls see Dem Joseph Mesi picking up SD-61 in the Buffalo suburbs, held by the retiring Republican Mary Lou Rath. Net result? 31-31. Ordinarily, the tie would be broken by the Lieutenant Governor… but New York doesn’t have one right now, as the post was left vacant when David Paterson succeeded Eliot Spitzer. So then who takes over? Short answer: no one knows.

But… Joseph Addabbo is tied with incumbent Republican Serphin Maltese in SD-15, a heavily Democratic area in Queens (the same poll also asked presidential preferences in each district, and Obama leads McCain 49-31 in the 15th). Maltese also might suffer from the recent arrest of Democratic Assemblyman (but key Maltese ally, whose Assembly district covers part of the 15th) Anthony Seminerio on federal corruption charges. This could be the tiebreaker.

The remaining polls show the two Democratic freshmen elected in mid-term, Craig Johnson and Darrel Aubertine, cruising to re-election, while threatened GOP incumbents Caesar Trunzo and Joe Robach are holding onto decent-size leads.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/22-24, likely voters, 5/20-21):

Gary Trauner (D): 42 (44)

Cynthia Lummis (R): 42 (41)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here’s our first look in many months at the race for Wyoming’s at large House seat, being vacated by the always-charming Barbara Cubin. The poll shows a tied game between Gary Trauner, who came very close to shocking Cubin in 2006, and former Secretary of State Cynthia Lummis. (The previous poll was taken long before Wyoming’s GOP primary, where Lummis defeated Mark Gordon, who was considered to be the less-divisive pick.)

There are two possible schools of thought on the state of this race: first, this isn’t that good, because Trauner has lost ground from last time even though now it’s confirmed he’s running against Lummis (who, personality-wise, seems to take after Cubin).

On the other hand, it may be good, since this follows in the wake of adding Sarah Palin to the ticket, who plays (or played?) uniquely well in the red states of the West and should have theoretically, via coattails, knocked Trauner out of contention. The same sample shows McCain leading Obama 57-36, still a mighty downdraft for Trauner to fight against, but an indication that Dems are running much better in the Equality State than in 2004 (where Kerry got dismantled 69-29).

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/22-24, likely voters):

Bob Conley (D): 42

Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 51

(MoE: ±4%)

A few days ago I called your attention to Rasmussen’s poll of South Carolina, showing Ron Paul-lovin’ paleo-con “Democrat” Bob Conley within 9 points of Lindsey Graham, as an example of their having gone off the deep end this week.

Well, we may actually have a live one here, as R2K shows a similar 9-point margin. Looks like South Carolinians are feeling pretty tepid about Graham. Sigh… if only a real candidate had decided to jump in for the Dems. However, I have to wonder if Conley is pulling a fair number of votes from the looney-tunes right (which doesn’t like Graham for his occasional flourishes of bipartisanship and rumors about his personal life), which a more normal Dem wouldn’t. R2K has McCain up in SC by a more believable 52-39 (Rasmussen had the presidential race at 51-45).

Suffolk University (9/21-24, likely voters):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 41

John Sununu (R-inc): 40

Ken Blevens (L): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

We’re getting a deluge of New Hampshire polls now, and we’re getting a wide range of results. Suffolk seems to fall in the ‘we have a real race on our hands’ camp. Throw this on the pile with all the other polls, and it does look like there’s a general tightening trend.

The same sample shows Obama beating McCain 46-45, and governor John Lynch beating Joe Kenney 61 to a pitiable 16.

Rasmussen (9/23, likely voters, 9/18 in parentheses)

Kay Hagan (D): 48 (51)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I try not to single out particular pollsters for ridicule, but Rasmussen has had one mixed-up crazy week. Nevertheless, their newest poll of the North Carolina Senate race is very much in line with their poll last week of the same race, and other pollsters as well: Hagan is showing a small but sustained lead. Somewhat miraculously, both candidates have favorable ratings over 50%: Dole at 52% and Hagan at 51%.

This is the same sample that gave Obama a 49-47 lead. Obama’s organizing and advertising push in North Carolina seems to be paying off not just for him (as NC is starting to move into undeniable swing-state territory) but downticket as well.

Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. (9/17-21, likely voters)

Mark Begich (D): 47

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 43

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 47

Don Young (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Fairleigh Dickinson has decided to expand its operations from New Jersey… to Alaska? Well, at any rate, it’s at an opportune time, as they join the pack of pollsters seeing tightening races in Alaska in the post-Palin environment (and as the initial shock of Uncle Ted’s indictment fades). In fact, these numbers quite closely resemble those announced by Ivan Moore earlier today (Begich up 48-46, Berkowitz up 49-44).

Ominously for the incumbents, Stevens pulls down only 67% support from Republicans, and Young is supported by only 50% of Republicans. Both races are also built on glaring gender gaps: for instance, Young is up by 10 among men, while Berkowitz is up by 22 among women.

University of New Hampshire (WMUR Granite State Poll): (9/14-21, likely voters, 7-11/20 in parens)

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 48 (46)

John Sununu (R-inc): 44 (42)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

The University of New Hampshire is back with new polls, and they show a continuation of Shaheen’s four-point lead from July. The July poll was considered a bit out-of-whack at the time, but this week’s poll seems more in line with overall polling trends: still a consistent Shaheen lead (with the exception of that recent wacky Rasmussen poll), but now within the margin of error instead of out in double-digit land. Encouragingly, Sununu’s favorables are dropping, down to 44% from over 50 in July. The same sample gives McCain a 47-45 lead.

University of New Hampshire (WMUR Granite State Poll): (9/14-21, likely voters, 7-11/20 in parens)

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 42 (40)

Jeb Bradley (R): 45 (46)

Undecided 12 (14)

(MoE: ±6.2%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 38 (43)

Jennifer Horn (R): 26 (23)

Undecided 33 (32)

(MoE: ±6.0%)

UNH also takes a look at the two Congressional races in New Hampshire. Carol Shea-Porter continues to trail Jeb Bradley (now by 3) in the rematch of their 2006 race in NH-01. The gap has closed a bit from last time, probably as Jeb Bradley emerges from an acrimonious primary covered in mud. Shea-Porter has only a 44% favorable rating (up significantly from the previous sample), but Bradley is even worse at 36% favorable, down from nearly 50 last time, which indicates that his primary battle with John Stephen may have mortally wounded him. Shea-Porter maintains a financial edge and can count on DCCC help, but this still looks to be a close race come November.

The other freshman representative, Paul Hodes, is in much better shape in the more Dem-leaning NH-02, giving Hodes the tie-breaker in the battle of dueling internals we saw earlier this week. Hodes is up by 12, although note the huge number of undecideds in this race (which has only grown since the GOP primary was resolved).

Playing “spot the methodological weaknesses in the UNH poll” has become a favorite netroots pastime, and there are a few things to point out: each of the Congressional samples is only half of the statewide sample, leaving them with sample sizes of only 252 and 271, and enormous 6% MoEs. In addition, these samples seem especially heavy on the Republicans (although New Hampshire may be one state where old school New England Republicans retain their registration even as they increasingly vote Democratic as the national GOP devolves into Theocon Central). This is especially glaring in the 2nd District, where the sample includes 60 Democrats and 91 Republicans (50% more).

SurveyUSA (9/21-22, likely voters, 9/5-7 in parentheses):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 50 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (48)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

I’ll file Washington’s governor’s race in the “good news” column: after a period in the post-GOP convention afterglow when Dino Rossi nosed ahead of Chris Gregoire (or shot ahead by 6, in the case of that sketchy Rasmussen poll), we may be returning the old stasis, with a tiny edge for Gregoire, who remains deeply dependent on Obama coattails to get her over the finish line. In the same sample, Obama leads 54-43, again, much more plausible than his +2 in the last Rasmussen. (H/t mikeel.)

UPDATE: Here’s an amusing little aside. The Washington Democratic Party is suing Secretary of State Sam Reed (a Republican, but a highly ethical one) to force him to change Rossi’s self-selected ballot line (from “GOP Party” to “Republican”). I don’t think the Dems have a legal leg to stand on, but it makes sense for them to try, in wake of last week’s Elway poll giving Gregoire a 4-point lead when Rossi is identified as “prefers GOP Party” and a 10-point lead when he’s identified as “Republican.”

PPP (9/17-19, likely voters, 9/9 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 44 (41)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (40)

Michael Munger (L): 6 (6)

(MoE: ±3.0%)

Civitas (R) (9/17-20, registered voters, 9/6-10 in parentheses):

Bev Perdue (D): 41 (40)

Pat McCrory (R): 43 (39)

Michael Munger: 3 (2)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

I’ll file North Carolina under “mixed bag,” as PPP gives Perdue another small edge (this is the same sample that showed Obama and McCain tied at 46 and Hagan up by 5). Civitas gives McCrory a two-point edge, up from a one-point deficit before (this sample showed Obama/McCain tied at 45 and Dole up by 2). This one clearly will go down to the wire.

Research 2000 for St. Louis Post-Dispatch (9/15-18, likely voters, 7/7-10 in parentheses):

Jay Nixon (D): 50 (52)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 43 (35)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

I’ll file this under “bad news,” but this is the kind of bad news that I’ll gladly take. Jay Nixon still leads Kenny Hulshof by a comfortable margin in the race for the open governor’s seat in Missouri, except Research 2000 (working for the St. Louis newspaper rather than Daily Kos on this one) shows that Hulshof has closed within high single digits instead of the showy double-digit margins Nixon has mostly been posting. Rasmussen gave Nixon a 15-point spread last week, so there’s not much cause for alarm, though. (McCain leads in this sample, 49-45.)

(Bumped – promoted by James L.)

In the wake of the Census Bureau releasing 2007 American Community Survey data by Congressional district, it’s time for another demographic data dump. (I previously wrote about population change here.) Today, let’s take a look at income and poverty numbers.

As with the population numbers, it’s more interesting to look at the change from 2000 to 2007, rather than simply asking who’s on top and who’s on bottom. VA-11 is always going to be wealthy; NY-16 is always going to be obscenely poor. Looking at change, however, provides some interesting insight into what districts are hurting more or less than before, and thus where economic-themed messaging might play best.

As you can see by many of the same districts showing up in each category, income and poverty correlate pretty closely. I’m including both median household income and per capita income since those can give very different results. They tend to vary depending on household size; PCI tends to be highest in affluent downtown districts with a lot of single-family households, while MHI is highest in suburban/exurban areas where people earn a lot but households full of kids drag down the PCI numbers.

Let’s start with biggest gains in median household income:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
VA-08	Moran (D)	$63,430	$90,662	$27,232
VA-11	Davis (R)	$80,397	$103,664	$23,267
VA-10	Wolf (R)	$71,560	$93,701	$22,141
NY-14	Maloney (D)	$57,152	$78,843	$21,691
CA-44	Calvert (R)	$51,578	$71,923	$20,345
CA-48	Campbell (R)	$69,663	$89,758	$20,095
NY-01	Bishop (D)	$61,884	$81,221	$19,337
MD-08	Van Hollen (D)	$68,306	$86,971	$18,665
MD-05	Hoyer (D)	$62,661	$81,179	$18,518
CA-30	Waxman (D)	$60,713	$79,149	$18,436

More over the flip…

Now for the smallest gains (or drops) in median household income:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
MI-14	Conyers (D)	$36,099	$35,228	– $871
MI-13	Kilpatrick (D)	$31,165	$30,842	– $323
TX-09	Green (D)	$34,870	$34,934	$64
GA-04	Johnson (D)	$47,943	$48,327	$384
TX-24	Marchand (R)	$56,098	$57,552	$1,454
MI-12	Levin (D)	$46,784	$48,417	$1,633
NC-12	Watt (D)	$35,775	$37,574	$1,799
MI-05	Kildee (D)	$39,675	$41,535	$1,860
NC-01	Butterfield (D)	$28,410	$30,441	$2,031
IL-02	Jackson (D)	$41,330	$43,380	$2,050

We’re getting into Dickensian tale-of-two-districts territory here, as you can see the rich districts getting richer (basically confined to the New York, Washington, and Los Angeles areas). The only surprise, to me, is CA-44, which is out in the Inland Empire and is seeing a lot of Latino growth. Apparently it’s also seeing a lot of growth of upscale subdivisions on its remaining patches of empty buildable ground.

Likewise, we’re seeing the poor getting poorer, as working-class blue-collar districts that have escaped the worst of urban poverty (like MI-14 and IL-02) slowly slide into poverty with the loss of manufacturing jobs. The main surprise (and only Republican held district) is TX-24, the suburban area around DFW airport, which is seeing a lot of Latino growth and white flight to the exurbs.

VA-11 has the highest MHI in both 2000 and 2007, followed by NJ-11. VA-10 (which was #12 in 2000), CA-14, and VA-08 (which was #28 in 2000) round out 2007’s Top 5, while CA-14, CA-15 (which fell to #16 in 2007), and NJ-07 round out 2000’s Top 5.

The lowest MHI for both 2000 and 2007 was in NY-16, followed by KY-05. In 2000, the bottom 5 also included WV-03, CA-31, and AL-07, while in 2007, several of the biggest plungers joined the bottom 5 (NC-01 and MI-13), along with MS-02.

Now let’s turn to per capita income, starting with the biggest gains:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
NY-14	Maloney (D)	$53,752	$71,409	$17,657
NY-08	Nadler (D)	$39,901	$57,462	$17,561
VA-08	Moran (D)	$35,613	$50,413	$14,800
CA-30	Waxman (D)	$34,552	$45,435	$10,883
MD-08	Van Hollen (D)	$36,245	$47,163	$10,918
CA-08	Pelosi (D)	$34,552	$45,435	$10,883
CT-04	Shays (R)	$41,147	$51,868	$10,721
CA-48	Campbell (R)	$37,242	$47,737	$10,495
IL-07	Davis (D)	$25,329	$35,697	$10,368
GA-05	Lewis (D)	$25,963	$35,979	$10,016

And here are the smallest gains:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
MI-14	Conyers (D)	$17,546	$18,047	$501
MI-13	Kilpatrick (D)	$17,078	$18,238	$1,160
MI-05	Kildee (D)	$19,823	$21,299	$1,476
MI-12	Levin (D)	$23,560	$25,263	$1,703
IL-02	Jackson (D)	$18,280	$20,004	$1,724
TX-09	Green (D)	$15,998	$17,825	$1,827
GA-07	Linder (R)	$25,214	$27,079	$1,865
WI-04	Moore (D)	$16,607	$18,591	$1,865
MI-15	Dingell (D)	$23,628	$25,651	$2,023
IN-07	Carson (D)	$19,559	$21,593	$2,034

These results show even more clearly the hit taken by Rust Belt inner cities, and in fact almost the entire Detroit area. The one surprise is another suburban GOP stronghold (for now): GA-07 in Gwinnett County, which is another area that’s increasingly becoming a first stop for immigrants of all nationalities, and a prime source of white flight to other burbs. (TX-09 seems to appear on these lists because it absorbed a large portion of New Orleans’ most impoverished residents.)

NY-14, followed by CA-30, had the highest PCI in both 2000 and 2007. The top 5 in 2000 also included CA-14, CT-04, and NY-08, while the top 5 in 2007 was rounded out with NY-08, CT-04, and VA-08.

The lowest PCI in both 2000 and 2007 was in NY-16, followed by CA-20 and TX-15. The bottom 5 in 2000 also included CA-31 and CA-34, while the bottom 5 in 2007 also included TX-29 and CA-34. Note that these lists are quite different from the bottom 5 in MHI; again, that tends to be a factor of household size. Here, the bottom 5 are all heavily Latino districts, where household size tends to be larger than the rural white or black districts that have the lowest MHIs.

Now let’s look at the highest poverty percentage changes:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
MI-13	Kilpatrick (D)	24.4%	32.5%	8.1%
CO-07	Perlmutter (D)	8.9%	15.0%	6.1%
TN-09	Cohen (D)	19.4%	25.0%	5.6%
MI-14	Conyers (D)	19.7%	25.0%	5.3%
IN-07	Carson (D)	13.5%	18.7%	5.2%
OH-15	Pryce (R)	10.8%	16.0%	5.2%
SC-06	Clyburn (D)	18.4%	23.4%	5.0%
NC-12	Watt (D)	15.9%	20.9%	5.0%
TX-16	Reyes (D)	23.6%	28.6%	5.0%
MI-04	Camp (R)	10.5%	15.2%	4.7%

Finally, let’s look at lowest poverty percentage changes:

District	Rep.	2000	2007	Change
CA-43	Baca (D)	20.7%	12.5%	– 8.2%
CA-20	Costa (D)	32.2%	26.4%	– 5.8%
LA-02	Jefferson (D)	26.8%	21.1%	– 5.7%
NY-15	Rangel (D)	30.5%	25.6%	– 4.9%
CA-34	Roybal-Allard (D)	26.0%	21.1%	– 4.9%
CA-28	Berman (D)	19.1%	14.4%	– 4.7%
CA-38	Napolitano (D)	16.3%	11.6%	– 4.7%
CA-31	Becerra (D)	30.1	25.5	– 4.6%
CA-35	Waters (D)	26.4%	21.9%	– 4.5%
NY-16	Serrano (D)	42.2%	37.7%	– 4.5%

Again, these numbers show Michigan taking a pounding, as well as other Rust Belt cities. Maybe most noteworthy, we’ve come across our first competitive race in an economically distressed area: OH-15, in downtown Columbus. (One other district catching my eye was CO-07 in the Denver suburbs, where I would guess there’s a lot of Latino growth.) The last set of numbers actually shows something good: a large reduction in poverty rates in mostly-Latino districts, especially in the Los Angeles area but in New York as well.

The most impoverished district in both 2000 and 2007 is NY-16 (despite its improvement over the years). In 2000, it was followed by CA-20 (which fell to #10 in 2007), NY-15 (which fell to #15 in 2007), TX-15, and CA-31. In 2007, it was followed by MI-13 (up from #20 in 2000), TX-15, PA-01, and TX-16 (up from #24 in 2000).

The least impoverished districts in 2000 were CO-06, IL-13, WI-05, NJ-07, and NJ-11. In 2007, that list changed to NJ-07, NJ-11, NJ-05, NY-03, and CA-42.

Rasmussen (9/18, likely voters):

Bob Conley (D): 41

Lindsey Graham (R-inc): 50

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Bob Conley, the Democratic candidate for Senate in South Carolina against Lindsey Graham, is sort of the flip side of Bob Kelleher, the Republican Senate candidate in Montana: a quaint eccentric with no institutional support and who’s way out of step with his ostensible party. Conley was a member of the Horry County Republican Committee before seeking the Democratic nomination. He voted for Ron Paul in the primaries, and, consistent with that, is running a paleo-con “America First” campaign that, according to his own campaign website, is “well to [Graham’s] right.” (Check out the precision of his flap-top; he makes Jon Tester look like Sideshow Bob.)

Rasmussen just polled this race for the first time, and to probably everyone’s surprise, it shows Conley within 9 points of Graham, who’s right at the 50% mark. I’m not sure whether this odd result reflects more poorly on Rasmussen (who also found an edge of only 51 McCain-46 Obama from the same sample… which may be fishy, or may be a leading indicator of the blue wave seeping down from Virginia into the Carolinas) or on Graham, who’s never had much luck at wooing social conservatives. Don’t look for the parties to get involved in this one, though, even if further polling continues to bear out these numbers.