Author: Crisitunity

Elon University (9/15-16, residents):

Kay Hagan (D): 35

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 35

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Bev Perdue (D): 35

Pat McCrory (R): 37

(MoE: ±4.9%)

First off, this is a strange poll, from a pollster I’ve never heard of before: a poll of North Carolina residents, with no regard to voting likelihood or registration, with a 4.9% MoE, and, judging by the very low numbers, little interest in pushing leaners. (UPDATE: Nor does the poll even give the names of candidates, only asking whether respondents are voting Democratic or Republican in each race!)

On the other hand, the numbers seem quite consistent with what we’ve seen recently: a tied race in the Senate, and a governor’s race moving in the last month from a slight Dem lean to a slight GOP lean. McCain leads Obama 41-35, also plausible.

Strategic Vision (R) (9/14-16, likely voters, 7/25-27 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 46 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 48 (45)

(MoE: ±3%)

Another poll of the Washington gubernatorial race, although from rather suspicious Republican polling firm Strategic Vision, confirms the movement in the last month of this race from lean Dem status to a tied, if ever-so-slightly-leaning-GOP, game. Gregoire, after ceding the airwaves for a while, appears to be renewing her ad efforts this week, but news of a $3.2 billion state budget deficit for the next biennium isn’t likely to play out in her favor.

Obama leads McCain 47-42 in Washington in the same poll, consistent with most other polling as well.  

Rasmussen (9/15, likely voters, 8/7 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 45 (39)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 46 (47)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

There’s been a decided shift in momentum in the last few weeks in this race: the Merkley internal poll giving him the lead (and giving Smith a catastrophic 61% disapproval rating), a panicky Smith dropping his ‘nice guy’ image to run sleazy attack ads, and Willamette Week pounding away at Smith on the hiring-illegal-immigrants front (with new research released today, interviewing five people who were illegals at the time of employment for the Prince of Peas).

Well, we have some confirmation from a public pollster: Rasmussen, who last month seemed to show a race slipping away from Merkley, shows a huge bounce-back for Merkley, now down just by 1. Significantly, Merkley leads 46-42 among unaffiliated voters.

We at SSP had been suspecting that where there was smoke, there was fire; with confirmation from a public pollster, we feel confident in upgrading this race to “Tossup.”

The NRCC is so confident in its candidate for the open seat in Arizona’s First District, friend-of-Alan-Keyes and all-around nutjob Sydney Hay, that it has decided to let her win the campaign on her own.

Karen Hanretty, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said the group believes Sydney Hay is a strong candidate who could win the seat without the committee’s financial backing.

“We don’t need to spend resources on all of these races, and simply because some are strong enough to sustain a victory without our financial assistance,” Hanretty said. “And we’re certainly hoping that’s the case in that district.”

This is the same Sydney Hay who was low on the party’s wish list of candidates after stronger candidates took a pass, who barely won her primary against a field of nobodies, who’s trying to succeed scandal-plagued Rick Renzi in an R+2 district, and who’s up against former State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who’s the recipient of a $1.7 million ad reservation by the DCCC.

Hay spokesperson Ron Tyler has a slightly different version of the events than the NRCC:

“There’s been communication and hope, and I don’t think they’ve specifically said no, but so far we haven’t had the check written or the commitment made,” he said. “We still have our prayers that somehow they’ll hear and answer and send us some money.”

Swing State Project is moving its rating of the Washington governor’s race to “Tossup.”

While we’re reasonably confident in governor Chris Gregoire’s ability to prevail in her rematch with 2004 GOP opponent Dino Rossi, thanks to Obama coattails on top of Washington’s Democratic lean, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that the most recent round of polling from both Rasmussen and SurveyUSA has given narrow leads to Rossi. If there’s any question, look at the trendlines.

There are several factors at work here: a higher energy level on the part of Rossi’s supporters (who have spent the last four years feeling that they wuz robbed), and Rossi’s skill as a retail politician vs. Gregoire’s reluctance to toot her own horn. Most significant is a sustained Rossi ad blitz, funded by big bucks from the Republican Governor’s Association (who don’t have too many other wise places to spend their money) and even more from the Evergreen State’s principal behind-the-scenes right-wing string-pullers, the Building Industry Association of Washington. Rossi will still be running into a stiff Democratic headwind in November, but a Rossi win is no longer out of the question.

Rasmussen (9/10, likely voters, 8/6 in parens):

Chris Gregoire (D-inc): 46 (47)

Dino Rossi (R): 52 (46)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Huh? That’s a gigantic jump for Rossi in the Washington governor’s race, with the first poll of the entire race to give him more than a one-point lead. With nothing having happened in the last month that would move the dial much in this race (other than a continued deluge of Rossi ads), it would be kind of hard to believe if it weren’t for last week’s SurveyUSA poll, which also had Rossi taking the lead (albeit by one point). Even if this Rasmussen poll is a bit of an outlier (the same sample had Obama up by only 2, which also shows a much closer race than anyone else before), it can’t be that screwed up an outlier, and in view of SUSA’s poll it should probably be viewed as at best a tied race (see the Pollster.com chart now).

A look inside the crosstabs shows the main problem for Gregoire… and also the main problem with the poll itself. Rossi is winning 89-8 among McCain voters, while Gregoire is winning only 81-19 among Obama voters. That’s believable (maybe some Obama/Rossi voters are taking ‘change’ a little too comprehensively).

On the other hand, this poll shows one of the key Obama demographics, the youth vote, going overwhelmingly for Rossi (shades of that SUSA WA-08 poll last week). 18-29 year olds favor Rossi 72-20, 30-39 year olds favor Rossi 58-39, and 40-49 year olds favor Rossi 52-47. Only the 50+ crowd favors Gregoire. Now that smells a little fishy.

Rasmussen (9/11, likely voters, 8/7 in parens):

Jay Nixon (D): 54 (51)

Kenny Hulshof (R): 39 (39)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The open seat governor’s race in Missouri is a completely different story, with Attorney General Jay Nixon on cruise control. Representative Kenny Hulshof (who was at 38 in July) doesn’t seem to have gotten a bump out of the Republican convention, winning his own primary, or anything else. With Washington and North Carolina both looking fuzzy right now, though, a victory here might just lead to a net gain of zero in the statehouses.

UPDATE (James): A new Elway poll of Washington gives Gregoire a 48-44 lead, and says that Obama is leading McCain by 46-37. (Tip o’ the cap: conspiracy)

One of the many interesting features at 538.com, and one that they’ve particularly drilled into the heads of the blogosphere, is the notion of the “tipping point” states. In other words, which states are in the middle of the left-to-right spectrum and the likeliest to be the ones that put a presidential candidate over the required 270 electoral votes to win (and thus get the most emphasis)?

This left me wondering: is this something that can be applied at the state level to identify which counties are the likeliest to be the decisive ones in terms of which way the state falls? Of course, the method is a little different, because a state is won simply by reaching a plurality of votes, rather than through the complicated machinery of the Electoral College. So while a Democratic campaign might particularly emphasize the swing voters clustered in a state’s median counties, it would also certainly want to push turnout in strongly-Democratic urban areas and still try to mine as many votes dispersed around conservative rural areas. But in an era of micro-targeting (via cable, internet ads, direct mail, etc.), knowing where the decisive voters are located, and how an entire state pivots around them, seems critical.

Naturally, I don’t have access to up-to-the-minute county-by-county polling data, so what I tried is arranging every county in each state from highest Democratic percentage to lowest Democratic percentage, for both the presidential races in 2004 and 2000, and then finding in which county the 50% mark fell, in terms of total number of votes. As you’ll note, the usual location tends to be an affluent suburban county, home to the stereotypical moderate swing voter. The tipping point tends to be in a slightly Republican-leaning county (even in some bluish states like Minnesota), which reflects, well, that the Republicans won the last two presidential elections, as well as the heavy concentration of Democratic votes in a few urban counties in many states.

I’m restricting my list to the states where there are prominent statewide races this year, as well as a few states where there isn’t a prominent statewide race but that are key to the presidential race (yes, I know this is Swing State Project, but I also know what everyone is fixated on right now, with the realization that the presidential race is going to turn into yet another house-by-house battle in a few key swing states… so if nothing else, this can be a handy scorecard for watching election returns in November). Rather than list every single freakin’ county in each state, I’m listing only counties with more than 100,000 residents (c. 2000). I’m also listing the D and R percentages for each county for each year. The !!! indicates the county where the tipping point falls. (In a few cases, it fell in a small rural county instead, which I’ll mention in the footnotes.)

Let’s start with Colorado, which is on a lot of people’s minds right now. Other states are over the flip…

County	2004	County	2000
Denver	70/29	Denver	62/31
Boulder	66/32	Pueblo	54/42
Pueblo	53/46	Adams	50/44
Adams	51/48	Boulder	50/36
Arapahoe	47/51	Arapahoe	43/51
Larimer !!!	47/52	Jefferson !!!	43/51
Jefferson	47/52	Larimer	39/53
Weld	36/63	Weld	36/58
Douglas	33/67	Douglas	31/65
El Paso	32/67	El Paso	31/64
Mesa	32/67	Mesa	30/63

Florida

County	2004	County	2000
Broward	64/35	Broward	67/31
Leon	61/38	Palm Beach	62/35
Palm Beach	60/39	Leon	60/38
Alachua	56/43	Alachua	55/40
Miami-Dade	53/47	St. Lucie	53/44
St. Lucie	52/48	Volusia	53/45
Volusia	50/49	Miami-Dade	53/46
Orange	50/50	Osceola	51/47
Pinellas	50/50	Pinellas	50/46
Osceola	47/52	Orange	50/48
Hillsborough !!!	46/53	Hernando	50/47
Hernando	46/53	Pasco !!!	49/48
Sarasota	45/54	Hillsborough	47/50
Pasco	44/54	Sarasota	45/52
Charlotte	43/56	Manatee	45/53
Manatee	43/57	Polk	45/53
Citrus	42/57	Citrus	45/52
Martin	42/57	Brevard	45/53
Duval	42/58	Charlotte	44/53
Brevard	42/58	Marion	43/54
Seminole	41/58	Seminole	43/55
Marion	41/58	Martin	43/55
Polk	41/59	Lake	41/56
Indian River	39/60	Duval	41/57
Lee	39/60	Lee	40/58
Lake	39/61	Indian River	40/58
Collier	34/65	Escambia	35/63
Escambia	34/65	Collier	32/66
St. John’s	31/69	St. John’s	32/65
Bay	28/71	Bay	32/66
Clay	23/76	Clay	25/73
Santa Rosa	22/77	Santa Rosa	25/72
Okaloosa	22/78	Okaloosa	24/74

Georgia

County	2004	County	2000
DeKalb	73/27	DeKalb	70/27
Clayton	70/29	Clayton	65/33
Fulton	59/40	Fulton	58/40
Clarke	58/40	Richmond	55/44
Richmond	57/43	Muscogee	54/45
Muscogee	51/48	Clarke	52/41
Bibb	51/49	Bibb	50/48
Chatham	50/50	Chatham	49/49
Cobb !!!	37/62	Cobb !!!	37/60
Gwinnett	33/66	Houston	36/63
Houston	33/66	Gwinnett	32/64
Henry	33/67	Henry	31/66
Hall	21/78	Hall	27/70
Cherokee	20/79	Cherokee	23/73

Indiana

County	2004	County	2000
Lake	61/38	Lake	62/36
Monroe	53/45	La Porte	50/48
Marion	51/49	St. Joseph	49/49
La Porte	50/49	Vigo	48/50
St. Joseph	48/51	Marion	48/49
Vigo	46/53	Delaware	47/50
Porter	45/54	Porter	45/52
Delaware	43/56	Madison	45/54
Vanderburgh	41/59	Vanderburgh	44/54
Madison	40/59	Monroe	44/48
Tippecanoe	40/59	Tippecanoe *	39/56
Allen *	36/63	Allen	36/62
Elkhart	29/70	Elkhart	30/67
Hendricks	26/73	Johnson	28/70
Johnson	26/74	Hendricks	27/71
Hamilton	25/74	Hamilton	24/74

Maine

County	2004	County	2000
Cumberland	58/40	Androscoggin	53/41
Androscoggin	54/44	Kennebec	53/41
York !!!	53/45	Cumberland	52/41
Kennebec	53/45	York !!!	49/45
Penobscot	49/49	Penobscot	45/49

Michigan

County	2004	County	2000
Wayne	69/30	Wayne	69/29
Washtenaw	63/35	Genesee	63/35
Genesee	60/39	Washtenaw	60/36
Ingham	58/41	Ingham	57/39
Muskegon	55/44	Bay	55/43
Bay	54/45	Muskegon	55/43
Saginaw	53/46	Saginaw	54/44
Kalamazoo	51/48	Monroe	51/47
Oakland !!!	50/49	Macomb	50/48
Macomb	49/50	Calhoun	50/48
Monroe	49/51	Oakland !!!	49/48
Calhoun	48/51	Kalamazoo	48/48
Eaton	46/53	St. Clair	48/49
St. Clair	45/54	Eaton	47/50
Berrien	44/55	Jackson	45/52
Jackson	43/56	Berrien	43/55
Kent	40/59	Livingston	38/59
Livingston	36/63	Kent	38/59
Allegan	36/63	Allegan	35/63
Ottawa	28/72	Ottawa	27/71

Minnesota

County	2004	County	2000
St. Louis	65/34	St. Louis	60/33
Ramsey	63/36	Ramsey	57/36
Hennepin	59/39	Hennepin	54/39
Dakota !!!	48/50	Dakota !!!	47/48
Washington	48/51	Anoka	47/48
Olmsted	47/52	Washington	46/48
Anoka	46/53	Olmsted	43/52
Stearns	43/55	Stearns	40/52

Mississippi

County	2004	County	2000
Hinds	59/40	Hinds	53/43
Harrison !!!	36/63	Harrison *	36/61
Jackson	30/69	Jackson	31/67
De Soto	27/72	De Soto	27/71
Rankin	20/79	Rankin	19/80

Missouri

County	2004	County	2000
St. Louis city	80/19	St. Louis city	77/20
Jackson	58/41	Jackson	59/38
St. Louis	54/45	St. Louis	51/46
Boone	50/50	Jefferson	50/48
Jefferson	49/50	Clay	49/49
Clay !!!	46/53	Boone !!!	48/48
St. Charles	41/59	St. Charles	42/56
Greene	37/62	Greene	40/57
Jasper	29/71	Jasper	31/66

New Hampshire

County	2004	County	2000
Strafford	56/44	Strafford	51/43
Merrimack	52/47	Merrimack	48/47
Hillsborough !!!	48/51	Hillsborough !!!	47/49
Rockingham	47/52	Rockingham	46/49

New Mexico

County	2004	County	2000
Santa Fe	71/28	Santa Fe	65/28
Bernalillo !!!	51/47	Dona Ana	51/46
Dona Ana	51/48	Bernalillo !!!	49/47
San Juan	33/66	San Juan	35/62

North Carolina

County	2004	County	2000
Durham	68/32	Durham	64/36
Orange	67/32	Orange	63/36
Robeson	53/47	Robeson	60/39
Mecklenburg	52/48	Cumberland	50/49
Guilford	50/49	Guilford	49/51
Buncombe	49/50	Mecklenburg	48/51
Wake	49/51	Wake	46/53
Cumberland	48/52	Pitt	46/54
Pitt	46/53	Buncombe *	45/54
Forsyth !!!	46/54	New Hanover	44/55
New Hanover	44/56	Forsyth	43/56
Alamance	38/61	Wayne	38/61
Wayne	38/62	Alamance	37/62
Cabarrus	33/67	Onslow	34/65
Rowan	32/67	Iredell	34/65
Catawba	32/67	Rowan	34/66
Gaston	32/68	Johnston	33/66
Johnston	32/68	Cabarrus	33/66
Iredell	32/68	Gaston	33/67
Onslow	30/69	Catawba	32/67
Union	29/70	Union	32/68
Davidson	29/71	Davidson	31/68
Randolph	25/74	Randolph	27/73

Ohio

County	2004	County	2000
Cuyahoga	67/33	Cuyahoga	63/33
Mahoning	63/37	Mahoning	61/35
Trumbull	62/38	Trumbull	60/36
Lucas	60/40	Lucas	58/39
Summit	57/43	Lorain	53/43
Lorain	56/43	Summit	53/43
Franklin	54/45	Ashtabula	50/45
Portage	53/46	Portage	50/45
Ashtabula	53/46	Montgomery	50/48
Montgomery	51/49	Franklin	49/48
Stark !!!	51/49	Clark	49/48
Clark	49/51	Stark !!!	47/49
Lake	48/51	Columbiana	46/49
Columbiana	47/52	Lake	45/50
Hamilton	47/53	Wood	43/53
Wood	46/53	Hamilton	43/54
Medina	43/57	Medina	40/56
Richland	40/60	Richland	39/57
Greene	39/61	Greene	38/58
Wayne	38/61	Licking	37/60
Licking	38/62	Fairfield	35/62
Fairfield	37/63	Wayne	35/61
Butler	34/66	Butler	34/63
Delaware	34/66	Allen	32/65
Allen	33/66	Delaware	31/66
Clermont	29/71	Clermont	30/67
Warren	28/72	Warren	28/70

Oregon

County	2004	County	2000
Multnomah	72/27	Multnomah	64/28
Lane	58/40	Lane	52/40
Washington	52/46	Washington	49/46
Clackamas !!!	49/50	Clackamas !!!	47/48
Marion	44/54	Marion	44/51
Jackson	43/55	Jackson	39/54
Deschutes	42/56	Deschutes	38/56
Linn	38/60	Linn	38/57
Douglas	33/66	Douglas	30/64

Pennsylvania

County	2004	County	2000
Philadelphia	80/19	Philadelphia	80/18
Allegheny	57/42	Lackawanna	60/36
Delaware	57/42	Fayette	57/40
Lackawanna	56/42	Allegheny	57/40
Montgomery	56/44	Delaware	54/43
Erie	54/46	Montgomery	54/44
Fayette	53/46	Washington	53/44
Luzerne	51/48	Erie	53/44
Bucks	51/48	Beaver	53/44
Beaver	51/48	Luzerne	52/44
Lehigh !!!	51/48	Northampton	51/45
Washington	50/50	Bucks !!!	50/46
Northampton	50/49	Cambria	50/46
Monroe	50/50	Mercer	49/47
Cambria	49/51	Lehigh	49/48
Mercer	48/51	Monroe	47/50
Centre	48/52	Westmoreland	46/52
Chester	48/52	Schuylkill	45/51
Berks	46/53	Dauphin	44/53
Dauphin	46/54	Berks	44/53
Schuylkill	45/55	Chester	44/53
Westmoreland	44/56	Centre	43/53
Cumberland	36/64	York	36/61
York	36/64	Butler	35/62
Butler	35/64	Cumberland	35/62
Lancaster	34/66	Lebanon	35/62
Blair	33/66	Blair	35/63
Lebanon	33/67	Lycoming	34/63
Lycoming	31/68	Lancaster	31/66
Franklin	28/71	Franklin	30/67

Virginia

County	2004	County	2000
Richmond city	70/29	Richmond city	65/31
Arlington	68/31	Portsmouth city	63/36
Alexandria city	67/32	Norfolk city	62/35
Norfolk cit	62/37	Alexandria city	61/34
Portsmouth city	61/38	Arlington	60/34
Hampton city	57/42	Hampton city	57/41
Fairfax	53/46	Newport News city	51/47
Newport News city	52/47	Fairfax	47/49
Prince William	46/53	Chesapeake city	45/53
Henrico	46/54	Prince William	45/53
Loudoun *	44/56	Henrico *	43/55
Chesapeake city	42/57	Virginia Beach city	42/56
Virginia Beach city	40/59	Loudoun	41/56
Chesterfield	37/63	Chesterfield	35/63

Washington

County	2004	County	2000
King	65/34	King	60/34
Thurston	56/43	Thurston	52/41
Whatcom	53/45	Snohomish	52/44
Snohomish !!!	53/46	Pierce !!!	51/44
Kitsap	51/47	Kitsap	49/45
Pierce	50/48	Whatcom	46/46
Skagit	48/50	Clark	46/50
Clark	47/52	Skagit	45/49
Spokane	43/55	Spokane	43/52
Yakima	39/60	Yakima	38/59
Benton	32/66	Benton	33/64

The 2004 tipping point in Indiana is Fayette County; Allen is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in Indiana is Wayne County; Tippecanoe is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in Mississippi is Scott County; Harrison is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in North Carolina is Duplin County; Buncombe is the closest large county.

The 2004 tipping point in Virginia is Nottoway County; Loudoun is the closest large county.

The 2000 tipping point in Virginia is Dinwiddie County; Henrico is the closest large county.

(I know that, short of looking at a map, it’s not always readily apparent what cities are in a county or where the county is, so if you have any geographic questions, feel free to ask in the comments.)

Harstad Strategic Research for Mark Udall (9/7-9, likely voters):

Mark Udall (D): 45

Bob Schaffer (R): 34

Bob Kinsey (G): 2

Doug Campbell (C): 3

(MoE: ±3.6%)

In response to the NRSC’s internal from last week showing a one-point race for the open Senate seat in Colorado, the Udall camp releases their own internal showing an 11-point gap at the height of the GOP post-convention bounce. This poll is of mild interest in that it’s the first poll I can think of that has polled the effect of third-party candidates on the race (the Green and the Constitution Party guy seem to cancel each other out).

Rasmussen (9/9, likely voters):

Larry LaRocco (D): 30

Jim Risch (R): 58

(MoE: ±4.0%)

In other news from the Mountain West, Jim Risch has a big lead on Larry LaRocco in Rasmussen’s first poll of the open Senate seat race in Idaho. This poll is missing one key element, though: self-funding independent Rex Rammell, who’s charging hard at Risch’s right flank. If this is really where the race is, though, it doesn’t look like the Rammell effect will have much impact on the bottom line.

It may be worth noting that the uncharismatic and campaigning-averse Risch inspires a large degree of “meh” among the sample: he has a 62% favorable rating, but 41% of that is only “somewhat favorable.”

Somebody’s feeling confident over at the DCCC: hot on the heels of yesterday’s addition of NY-26 surprise primary winner Alice Kryzan to their Red to Blue program (the DCCC’s fundraising stamp of approval), they’ve promoted eight more candidates today.

FL-08 Alan Grayson

FL-18 Annette Taddeo

KY-02 David Boswell

NC-10 Dan Johnson

NE-02 Jim Esch

OH-07 Sharen Neuhardt

PA-15 Sam Bennett

TX-07 Michael Skelly

Of these candidates, Taddeo, Boswell, Johnson, Bennett, and Skelly all got promoted from the DCCC’s Emerging Races list. Grayson is the winner of the recent FL-08 primary, and Esch and Neuhardt have leapfrogged their way onto the list.

UPDATE (James): The DCCC has also added a few more candidates to its list of “Emerging Races”:

IA-04: Becky Greenwald

IL-13: Scott Harper

LA-01: Jim Harlan

SC-01: Linda Ketner

TX-10: Larry Joe Doherty

Lynn Westmoreland got nailed for referring to Barack Obama as “uppity” last week. Well, it turns out he’s not the only one, suggesting more of a pattern and practice by white Georgian politicians than an innocent misuse of what one might mistakenly think is a racially-neutral word.

On Thursday (the same day as Westmoreland’s gaffe) Retired Air Force major general Rick Goddard, who’s running against Jim Marshall in the neighboring Eighth District, referred to MSNBC reporter Ron Allen, who is African-American, as “uppity” while being interviewed on a Macon radio news show.

Last night, Newt Gingrich disarmed a very uppity newscaster who tried to question him on the capabilities and leadership of Governor Palin.

Now unlike Westmoreland, who’s not in any immediate electoral peril, Goddard is a challenger and was considered a strong recruit against the perenially-endangered Marshall. This may have made Goddard’s slog a little more uphill.