Author: Crisitunity

• NY-20: The Troy Record, one of the major papers in the district, calls out GOP candidate Jim Tedisco in an angry editorial for not living in the district and for sticking to the Republican negative campaigning playbook.

• OK-Gov: Former Republican Congressman J.C. Watts says he’s weighing a run for governor and will make a decision in 45 days. (Mark your calendars for April 17th.) But how will Watts, who made tentative pro-Obama noises last year, play in a GOP primary? (D)

• CA-19: More R-on-R fun: A wealthy Republican fundraiser in California is itching to recruit a primary challenger for GOP Rep. George Radanovich. Assemblyman Mike Villines might be interested. Radanovich’s district supported Bush by monstrous margins, but only went for McCain by 52-46 last year. (J) (UPDATE: Villines’ office writes in to say that he will be supporting Radanovich in 2010.)

• CA-Sen: Best wishes to Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO who moved on to Republican politics and had been mentioned as a possible candidate against Barbara Boxer in 2010. She’s been diagnosed with breast cancer, which may put her political activism on hold.

• DC Voting Rights: The House vote on the DC Voting Rights Act has been pushed back until next week, as leadership figures out how to prevent the GOP from adding language that strips most of what remains of DC’s gun laws (after the Supreme Court partially struck them down last year).

• 2010 House: The Hill has a nice preview of some of the hot House races in two years, and candidates bubbling up to fill those slots.

Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. (2/25-3/2, registered voters, 1/2-1/7 in parentheses):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 32 (40)

Chris Christie (R): 41 (33)

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 36 (46)

Steve Lonegan (R): 32 (28)

(MoE: ±4%)

Chris Christie (R): 43 (32)

Steve Lonegan (R): 15 (15)

Rick Merkt (R): 1 (5)

Brian Levine (R): 2 (0)

(MoE: ±6%)

Jon Corzine seems to be joining neighboring governor David Paterson in a race to the bottom, losing steam as the state’s economy falters. He trails US Attorney Chris Christie by 9, compared with a 7-point lead in January (prior to Christie’s announcement of his candidacy). These numbers are consistent with Corzine’s mediocre approve/disapprove of 40/46.

Christie still must get through a primary, most prominently against former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan, who seems to be running to Christie’s right. I have to wonder if Corzine’s best hope would be to spend his buckets of money now to make sure that the wingnutty Lonegan wins the primary (a la the Dems’ gaming the system in the 2002 Riordan/Simon primary in California)… otherwise, he’ll be digging a lot deeper into his pockets, and having to bank on economic recovery, in November.

UPDATE: Ooops, look like we never got around to reporting Quinnipiac‘s last poll of this race from 1/29-2/2, which had Christie up 44-38. We have enough information now that Pollster has some trendlines up, and the results ain’t pretty.

Marist (2/25-26, registered voters, 1/27 in parentheses):

David Paterson (D-inc): 26

Andrew Cuomo (D): 62

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 78

Rick Lazio (R): 17

(MoE: ±5.5%)

David Paterson (D-inc): 38 (46)

Rudy Giuliani (R): 53 (47)

David Paterson (D-inc): 47

Rick Lazio (R): 35

Andrew Cuomo (D): 56

Rudy Giuliani (R): 39

Andrew Cuomo (D): 71

Rick Lazio (R): 20

(MoE: ±3%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 36

Carolyn McCarthy (D): 33

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Peter King (R): 32

George Pataki (R): 56

(MoE: ±5.5%)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 49 (49)

Peter King (R): 28 (24)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 45 (44)

George Pataki (R): 41 (42)

(MoE: ±3%)

Whew! That’s a lot of data for one poll. And none of it is good for Gov. David Paterson, who can’t muster even half the support of AG Andrew Cuomo in a primary matchup… and if he miraculously makes it through the primary, he’s poised to get creamed by Rudy Giuliani, of all people.

There’s also the wee matters of his approval rating (26% ‘excellent’ or ‘good,’ which is lower than George Pataki, Mario Cuomo, or Eliot Spitzer ever managed), disapproval over his handling of the budget (30/59, down from 42/41 in January, suggesting that most of his continued plunge is about the budget and not about senate seat blowback), and terrible ‘wrong track’ numbers for the state of New York (27/65). The only thing he has to be thankful about: that he’s not ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, the one man in the state who’s even less popular.

On the Senate front, Paterson’s appointee Kirsten Gillibrand is still in something of a holding pattern as her constituents get to know her. She’s getting only 18% ‘excellent’ or ‘good ratings, compared with 32% ‘fair’ or ‘poor,’ but 50% of the sample just says ‘don’t know.’ She fares well against Rep. Peter King, but ex-Gov. George Pataki (who hasn’t really expressed interest in the race, although John Cornyn has been privately buttering him up) makes the race competitive. Her toughest task may still be defending her left flank in the primary, although unlike Quinnipiac‘s February poll, which had Gillibrand down 34-24 to Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, Marist gives Gillibrand the narrow edge. (Discussion is underway in andgarden‘s aptly titled diary.)

• VA-Gov: PPP’s latest has McAulliffe 21, Moran 19 and Deeds 14 for the Dem gubernatorial primary. Last month it was 18-18-11. The election is three months off. (D)

• PA-Sen: An opening for Pat Toomey? Susquehanna has a new poll showing Snarlin’ Arlen’s re-elects at just 38% – and an awful 26% among Republicans. (D)

• TX-Gov: Tom Schieffer, a former State Rep. and Bush Ambassador to Australia, has announced that he’s forming an exploratory committee to seek the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Texas. When questioned by reporters, Schieffer says that he does not regret voting for Bush for Governor and President. A recent PPP poll has Kay Bailey Hutchison crushing Schieffer by a 54-30 margin, while incumbent Gov. Rick Perry leads Schieffer by only 45-35. (J)

• IN-Gov: Is Baron Hill getting ready for a 2012 gubernatorial campaign? There was some brief speculation that he might run in 2008, but of course that never panned out. (J)

• OR-Gov: This may be a tea leaf that Gordon Smith is passing on the 2010 governor’s race, or it may simply be a way to stay in the Beltway money loop for a year while laying groundwork, but Gordo is staying in DC and taking a “senior adviser” position (since he’s subject to the two-year lobbying ban) with prominent DC law/lobbying/soul-devouring firm Covington & Burling.

The waves keep getting smaller and smaller, as we wend our way closer to the conclusion of our massive presidential results-by-congressional district crowdsourcing project. For those of you who are counting, that leaves only six districts that we need to complete (AL-06 and AL-07, NY-02, NY-03, NY-04, and NY-05) in order to be not just the first outlet to make all this information public, but just plain the first outlet, period.

The geography nerds among you might be thinking, hey, that looks like we’re only two counties short of completion: Tuscaloosa County, AL, and Nassau County, NY. (You’re almost right: we also need Coosa County, AL, but it has only 12,000 people so I’m making a “close enough” call on AL-03 until we actually wrangle some data out of them.) Our ground forces in Alabama are already on the case of Tuscaloosa and Coosa Counties, but, to expedite matters, we need to switch on the SSP Batsignal over Gotham: we need an NYC-area correspondent to make the trek out to Mineola and have a date with the Nassau County Board of Elections’ copy machine. If you’re available to take this mission, please e-mail our intrepid publisher, DavidNYC (see the right column) and he’ll tell you what we need.

If you want to see a summary of the whole list of districts, click here. Waves one, two, three, four, and five provide additional detail, and for a truly ridiculous level of detail, each state’s database is accessible through our master database.

District	Obama #	McCain #	Other #	2008 %	2004 %	2000 %
AL-03	117,511	154,408	2,068	42.9/56.4	41/58	47/52
AL-04	58,863	199,858	3,133	22.5/76.3	28/71	37/61
CO-01	222,008	72,573	4,637	74.2/24.3	68/31	61/33
CO-06	202,100	229,715	5,925	46.2/52.5	39/60	37/60
CO-07	168,885	113,873	5,615	58.6/39.5	51/48	50/49
IN-02	153,369	126,801	3,347	54.1/44.7	43/56	45/53
IN-03	123,571	162,183	2,727	42.8/56.2	31/68	33/66
MO-02	172,368	215,175	3,839	44.0/55.0	40/60	39/59
MO-09	144,583	181,339	5,199	43.7/54.8	41/59	42/55
NY-26	148,588	166,890	4,570	46.4/52.2	43/55	44/51
NY-27	156,635	127,249	5,144	54.2/44.0	53/45	53/41
NY-28	184,132	81,445	3,332	68.5/30.3	63/36	60/35

Points of interest in this wave include AL-04, which, to our surprise, plummets past the West Texas districts to grab the dubious distinction of Obama’s worst performance (at 22%). This district used to send a Democrat to Congress until 1996, and even Gore got 37% here… but this is Alabama’s whitest and most rural district, where the southern end of the Appalachians and Birmingham exurbs meet.

Aside from some stagnation in NY-27 (the blue-collar white parts of Buffalo), everything else here is good news: huge swings in both Denver and its conservative suburbs, and even bigger swings in Indiana, where we not just flipped IN-02 (South Bend) but won it pretty convincingly.

As with our previous wave, our resident numbers guru jeffmd has been refining our figures as new data continues to trickle in, so we have another corrections table with 16 revised districts over the flip. Again, nothing major, but we know that many SSP readers are fans of utter and complete accuracy.

District	Obama #	McCain #	Other #	Updated %	What we’d said
CO-02	235,090	124,841	6,136	64.2/34.1	66.5/31.9
CT-01	218,794	108,572	4,404	66.0/32.7	66.0/32.7
CT-02	204,220	139,945	5,056	58.5/40.1	59.1/39.5
CT-03	201,741	117,114	3,953	62.5/36.3	62.5/36.3
CT-04	190,996	126,819	2,130	59.7/39.6	59.6/39.7
CT-05	182,021	136,978	4,054	56.3/42.4	56.3/42.4
IL-11	175,648	148,695	5,080	53.3/45.1	53.4/45.1
IL-14	174,341	139,187	4,445	54.8/43.8	55.2/43.5
IL-17	156,671	117,111	4,031	56.4/42.2	56.3/42.3
IL-18	149,524	154,805	5,095	48.3/50.0	49.1/49.2
MI-11	197,857	163,958	6,115	53.8/44.6	53.8/44.6
MI-13	200,387	34,231	1,933	84.7/14.5	82.9/16.2
MI-14	232,473	36,444	2,127	85.8/13.5	84.2/14.9
MI-15	224,505	110,833	5,861	65.8/32.5	66.2/32.1
TX-11	58,326	185,389	1,919	23.8/75.5	23.6/75.4
TX-23	124,995	118,391	1,634	51.0/48.3	50.9/48.1

Time for the daily ganja break…

• NY-20: Scott Murphy snagged the Independence Party line for the March 31 special election – a good get, even though it didn’t help Sandy Treadwell much last fall. Meanwhile, both Tedisco and the NRCC are up on the air with negative radio and TV ads. The DCCC also hits back with its first ad, attacking Tedisco for stimulus-related waffling while defending Murhpy against back taxes charges.

• IL-Sen: Oh god – Roland Burris has rolled out a campaign website, complete with “Donate” link. Also, it should come as no surprise, but state treasurer (and Friend of Barack) Alexi Giannoulias made his interest official today, launching his exploratory committee. Meanwhile, Rep. Jan Schakowsky says she’ll jump in if there’s a special election, though she sounds leery about giving up her seat for a 2010 run.

• DC Voting Rights: Steny Hoyer has promised a House vote this week on the DC Voting Rights Act. The bill should pass the House easily, given that a prior version sailed through in 2007. The real issue will be whether the conference committee settles on an at-large or traditional district for Utah. (D)

• UT-Sen: Damn, Ken Jennings won’t run. Says Jennings: “I’ve decided to bow out of the election before even announcing, in order to spend more time with my family. (And when I say “with my family,” I mean, “screwing around on the Internet.”)” At least that’s an excuse we can all understand and accept. (D)

• Polltopia: Public Policy Polling once again is letting readers decide which Senate race they’ll poll next. The choices: Connecticut, Delaware, and Kentucky. (J)

• CA-Gov: Looks like John Garamendi, Gavin Newsom, Jerry Brown, and Antonio Villaraigosa are all dead serious about running for governor in 2010; they all jointly appeared before the San Fernando Valley Democrats this weekend.

• OR-Gov: As DeFazio, Kitzhaber, Bradbury, et al. try to figure out who’s running, a dark horse may be sneaking past them: Portland City Councilor Randy Leonard, who may be able to count on substantial backing from organized labor.

Kathleen Sebelius is on her way to Washington.

President Barack Obama on Saturday asked Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius to be his nominee for Health and Human Services secretary, according to two White House officials. The officials told CNN that Obama is expected to make the announcement Monday afternoon.

This will give current Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson at least two years as Kansas governor (which may give him a leg up toward another term, if he wants, although he said he wouldn’t run for governor earlier). In terms of larger national implications, this takes Sebelius off the table for the open Kansas senate race in 2010, which she had a good shot to win according to Research 2000.

UPDATE (David): With this move, KS-Sen unfortunately comes off of our Races to Watch list.

Illinois governor Pat Quinn is pushing the idea of a special election to fill in the Illinois senate seat… the one that Roland Burris is currently occupying and doesn’t seem to be moving to relinquish. This wouldn’t be a recall election (recall power doesn’t exist at the federal level), but rather an end-run that would apparently clarify that Burris’s appointment lasts until any next election (not just the next federal election), and then set an election date much sooner than 2010. Sounds a little legally questionable to me, but AG Lisa Madigan seems to think it’s copacetic:

Quinn, appearing on “The Steve Cochran Show” on WGN-AM (720), said he spoke to the top two Democrats in the General Assembly today about the possibility of moving ahead with the legislation, which would take advantage of a clause contained in the U.S. Constitution’s 17th Amendment.

Quinn’s actions follow a legal opinion issued last night by Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan who said she believed the state could enact a special-election law that would effectively force Burris from office. Under the Constitution, a governor’s appointments to fill Senate vacancies should be considered temporary until an election is held, she said.

Even if it’s legal, though, the question of the price tag may prevent it from going through. Estimates of up to $50 million to hold a special election may throw cold water on the idea.

Regardless of whether there’s a special election soon or a long march till 2010, one more interested Democratic contender for the Senate has popped out of the woodwork today: William Daley. He plans to make his announcement in mid-April. Daley is the former Clinton-era Commerce Secretary, and perhaps more significantly, brother to Chicago mayor Richard Daley. Hmmm, I wonder which candidate the Daley machine will get behind?

• NH-Sen: Oh, darn. Ex-Sen. Bob Smith isn’t planning to run in the GOP primary for Judd Gregg’s open senate seat. He said he prefers to remain a Florida resident.

• OH-Sen: Add a fourth candidate (and, with Tyrone Yates, a second African-American with a less-than-statewide profile) to the mix in the Ohio senate primary: Cuyahoga County Commissioner Peter Lawson Jones. Last week he told Ohio Daily Blog that he’d be forming an exploratory committee this week. (No telling if that actually happened.)

• OH-02: You may remember David Krikorian, an independent who racked up double-digits in last year’s Schmidt/Wulsin faceoff. He’s announced that he’s going to seek the Democratic nomination for a rerun, as a loud ‘n’ proud Blue Dog.

• IL-05: It’s the last weekend of campaigning before the Mar. 3 primary for the special election to fill Rahm Emanuel’s seat. With 12 candidates and projected low turnout, basically anything can happen. While Emanuel hasn’t endorsed, Politico does observe that there’s a Sara Feigenholtz sign in his yard in Chicago.

• DCCC: Chris Van Hollen announced his 2009-10 chair for candidate recruitment: Rep. Steve Israel (of NY-02). He also announced that Robby Mook, most recently Jeanne Shaheen’s campaign manager, will take over as the DCCC’s political director.

• FEC: This ought to make James’s job a lot easier: Russ Feingold has introduced legislation, widely expected to pass, requiring Senate candidates to electronically file their campaign finance reports with the FEC, the way House candidates already do. Currently, Senate filings are paper-only.

• KY-St Sen.: Here’s a bit of good news that’s a few weeks old that eluded us until now: a Democratic candidate, Mike Reynolds, won the Feb. 11 special election to fill the state senate seat vacated by Republican Brett Guthrie (elected in KY-02 in November). The 32nd, based in Bowling Green, is in a deep red area at the federal level, but apparently still maintains a downballot Dem tradition. The GOP still controls the state senate, 21-16-1.

• NYC: SSP doesn’t usually delve into county-level governance, but this involves one of the legal community’s most legendary members: Bob Morgenthau, the District Attorney of New York County (aka Manhattan), has decided not to go for a 10th term. Currently 89 years old, he’s been in office for 35 years.

• Retread Watch: Yeah, there’s some precedent for this. But isn’t it a little sad that twice-defeated House loser Jeb Bradley is considering a run for New Hampshire state Senate?

We’re going to try out a new feature for weekday afternoons here at Swing State Project: four or five links to various items that we want to get out there but don’t feel like investing a diary’s worth of effort on. Enjoy the bullet points! (We encourage you to add your own bullet points in the comments, and otherwise treat this as an open thread.)

• UT-Sen: Daily Kos polls the 2010 Utah Senate race, where the action appears to be in the primary, but Bob Bennett looks safe for another 6 years. Bennett beats David Leavitt 44-23 in the primary, and, in the general, manhandles Rep. Jim Matheson 55-32 and Jeopardy! champion Ken Jennings 57-21, not that we should expect either of them to run.

• OH-Sen: A third Dem has jumped into the primary field for the 2010 Senate race: state representative Tyrone Yates. He doesn’t have the stature of Fisher or Brunner, but as the only African-American and only Cincinnati-area candidate, he may well complicate things.

• WA-08: The first Dem challenger has announced, and it’s another wealthy ex-Microsoft executive, Suzan DelBene. Don’t look for her to have the field to herself this time, though.

• MN-Sen: In an indication that the Coleman camp has exhausted every possible legal argument that can win in court, he’s moved onto arguing that it was basically a tie so let’s just have a do-over election. Not the kind of thing that someone who has a hope of winning in court ever says.

• Census: The Congressional Black Caucus is pushing the White House to keep the Census within its portfolio even though reliable Dem Gary Locke will now be taking over at Commerce.

• Blogospheria: Blogger brainpower (including Jane Hamsher, Glenn Greenwald, Markos Moulitsas, and Nate Silver) and union bucks come together in the new Accountability Now PAC. The goal is to pressure (and where there’s a good target, primary) bad Dems and create more space for good Dems to maneuver on the left.

• RI-01: Republican state representative John Loughlin is strongly considering a suicide mission against challenge to Rep. Patrick Kennedy. Kennedy got 69% against no-names in his last two elections, but apparently his approval ratings are softening.

• HI-01: In another district where you might be surprised to know there’s an elected Republican, Honolulu city councilor Charles Djou has announced his candidacy for HI-01, which is expected to be vacated by Neil Abercrombie as he goes for governor. Djou claims the endorsement of every Republican in Hawaii’s legislature (all 7 of them).

• NC-Sen: Former state treasurer, and gubernatorial primary loser, Richard Moore won’t be getting involved in the Dem primary to take on Richard Burr in 2010. The field looks clearer for AG Roy Cooper.