Author: Crisitunity

Benenson Strategy Group (D) (2-24/25, likely voters):

Scott Murphy (D): 37

Jim Tedisco (R): 44

Eric Sundwall (L): 4

(n = 400)

This is starting to look rather encouraging: never-before-elected venture capitalist Scott Murphy is within 7 points of state assembly minority leader Jim Tedisco in a Democratic internal poll in the race to succeed Kirsten Gillibrand in NY-20. Tedisco led by 21 in early February in his own POS internal and then by 12 in an independent poll in mid-February from Siena, so while there’s an apples and oranges problem here among pollsters, there’s an upward trajectory for Murphy as we approach the Mar. 31 special election.

One other observation: folks in the media are treating this poll as evidence that Tedisco’s hemming and hawing about voting for the economic stimulus package (and the ensuing broadside of criticism he received from the local papers’ editorial boards) hurt him. I’m sure that’s true. But look at the dates this poll was in the field: two and a half weeks ago, before Tedisco’s vacillations really started to define the race, and only a week after that Siena poll. I don’t know why they waited so long to release the poll, but given the age of this poll and intervening events, it’s quite possible that the real race is even closer. (Discussion is underway in conspiracy‘s diary.)

• UT-Sen: With the possibility of a serious primary challenge to Sen. Bob Bennett looming, SSP is adding this contest to our “Races to Watch” list. (D)

• TX-10: A spokesman for Michael McCaul claims he’s running for re-election to his House seat; earlier McCaul said he might run for TX AG, but this situation still bears watching. Dem Jack McDonald apparently plans to run no matter what McCaul decides. (D)

• PA-Sen: Peg Luksik, a pro-life activist who has made several unsuccessful runs for governor (both in the GOP primary in 1990 and on the Constitution Party line in 1998, when she pulled in 10% of the vote in the general), is planning to run in the Republican primary against both Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey. This may actually be good news for Specter, because a split between the religious fundamentalists and free-market fundamentalists in the primary could let Specter sneak through.

• SC-01: The lackadaiscal Henry Brown, fresh off of barely beating Linda Ketner last year, is facing a primary challenge from a young go-getter with a prominent (if laughable) family name: Carroll “Tumpy” Campbell III. (His father was SC governor in the 1990s.) Many in the local GOP are worried about the safety of the seat in Brown’s idle hands, and this early announcement may be done with the hope of goading Brown into retirement.

• IN-05: More primary drama in another solidly Republican district. Dan Burton suddenly looked vulnerable after winning his primary by only 7% against former Marion County coroner John McGoff last year. McGoff’s back for a re-run, and now three other GOPers are swarming the race: state rep. Mike Murphy, former state GOP chair Luke Messer, and former 7th district candidate Brose McVey. Marion County prosecutor Carl Brizzi also says he plans to run if Burton retires, although he seems likelier to retire in 2012.

• NRCC: Seeing as how there may be a lot of major GOP primaries in 2010, the NRCC has announced that it may get involved in primaries this cycle, a departure from Tom Cole’s self-destructive hands-off policy last time. The NRCC has also privately signaled that they may let flawed or insufficently aggressive incumbents get picked off in the primaries rather than have to prop them up in the general.

• FL-12: The GOP and Dems already have front-runners for the nominations in the open seat race (to be vacated by Adam Putnam), GOP state representative Dennis Ross and Democratic Polk County elections supervisor Lori Edwards. But Doug Tudor, who held Putnam under 60% last year without DCCC help, is coming back for another bite at the apple. State senator Paula Dockery is also considering jumping in on the GOP side.

• Caucuses: Meow! (Or woof?) The Blue Dogs are suddenly sounding catty, miffed at seeing their position as the go-to caucus for watering down progressive legislation usurped by the New Democrats in the wake of the mortgage modification bill.

Field Poll (2/20-3/1, registered voters):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 54

Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): 30

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 55

Carly Fiorina (R): 25

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): 31

Carly Fiorina (R): 24

Chuck DeVore (R): 9

Carly Fiorina (R): 31

Chuck DeVore (R): 19

(MoE: ±5.8%)

The bad news for Barbara Boxer is that she’s not terribly popular; only 42% of Californians are inclined to re-elect her, while 43% are inclined not to. The good news is, there’s nobody that Californians are inclined to like better. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been considered the GOP’s best bet in this seat (despite his not having publicly expressed any interest in the race), but the new Field Poll shows him getting demolished. This is a much bigger margin than the R2K poll from two months ago that gave Boxer a 9-point edge, but that’s before the state-level budget crisis took him down (and, to be fair, just about every governor) a few pegs.

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina doesn’t fare any better, and while her prognosis is supposedly good after breast cancer surgery last week, she’s hardly a lock for the race either. The GOP may be left with little-known and little-liked state assemblyman Chuck DeVore. Either way, Boxer doesn’t seem to be facing much danger any more.

Swing State Project doesn’t usually work the Supreme Court beat, but today the Supremes issued probably this year’s most significant opinion concerning SSP’s meat and potatoes: redistricting, the Voting Rights Act, and, ultimately, the composition of the House. The news isn’t good: in a party-line 5-4 decision (plurality authored by Justice Kennedy), the court held that the VRA does not require the creation of new districts that are intended to elect a minority representative (‘crossover’ or ‘coalition’ districts) but where that minority does not actually constitute 50% of the district’s population.

Now, there’s one key detail that makes this not as dire as it first sounds. Kennedy made it clear that state legislatures may still create a district that has less than 50% of a particular minority even if the intent of the district is to elect a minority representative (via a coalition of various minorities, or minorities plus liberal whites). It is simply not required as a remedy under the VRA in response to previous instances of vote dilution. However, the federal government cannot compel the creation of such a district. (Unless, as DavidNYC pointed out, Congress steps into the fray and rewrites VRA section 2. That may be too much of a political football to take on right now, though.)

Bartlett v. Strickland stems from a 2007 North Carolina Supreme Court decision, where the NC court struck down a district that was 39% African-American, created with the intention of electing an African-American, on the grounds that the district violated state law by unnecessarily crossing county lines. Civil rights groups appealed, saying that such coalition districts help to reduce racial polarization by requiring minority candidates to receive at least some backing from white voters.

This just serves to underscore the importance of control of state legislatures (and gubernatorial seats) coming out of the 2010 elections. We could see very different re-districting results coming out of, say, North Carolina, where we will probably control the trifecta (and are thus likely to see, say, NC-08 and NC-13 made safer by additions from safely minority-majority NC-12), as opposed to the GOP majority in Georgia, where we could see unfavorable tinkering with the south Georgia seats (for instance, a worse hand dealt to Jim Marshall in GA-08 as black percentages in GA-02 and GA-12 are boosted back over the 50% mark).

UPDATE (David): It turns out that Justice Ginsburg agrees with me. From her dissent (PDF, p. 47):

Today’s decision returns the ball to Congress’ court. The Legislature has just cause to clarify beyond debate the appropriate reading of §2.

Here’s your daily dose of bullet points…

• TX-10: Democrats have lined up a solid candidate in TX-10, where Larry Joe Doherty came within 10 points of Mike McCaul last year. Jack McDonald, CEO of Austin high-tech firm Perficient, has started an exploratory committee. This fast-growing, Dem-trending district may also be an open seat in 2010, as McCaul considers a bid for Texas AG.

• CA-48: It looks like GOP Rep. John Campbell is about to receive a stronger-than-expected Democratic challenge in 2010. Beth Krom, the former mayor of Irvine and a current city councilor, has made a formal announcement of her candidacy on her campaign website. A traditionally red district, Obama edged out a slight victory over McCain here in 2008, pulling 49% of the vote. (Hat-tip to Gus Ayer, friend of SSP) (J)

• NV-Sen: Here’s one that slipped through the cracks last week: ex-Rep. Jon Porter, who’d be the GOP’s best option against Harry Reid, is staying in Washington and becoming ‘director of public policy’ at a lobbying shop. Not that this closes him out from running, but it diminshes the likelihood.

• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek has been racking up money ($90,000 at a recent Bill Clinton-headlined fundraiser) and endorsements (Florida’s SEIU chapter and United Teachers of Dade) while primary opponent state senator Dan Gelber is preoccupied with the legislative session.

• DCCC: In a big behind-the-scenes move, DCCC executive director (and Pelosi ally) Brian Wolff has left the D-Trip to become senior VP for external affairs at the Edison Electric Institute, a utility-owned trade and lobbying group that has previously given significantly more money to Republicans. (UPDATE: The DCCC’s new executive director will be Jon Vogel, who previously led the DCCC’s independent expenditures arm.)

• WA-08: Here’s an interesting take from American Prospect on what went wrong with Darcy Burner’s rematch against Dave Reichert, written by Eli Sanders, the former politics reporter for the Stranger (Seattle’s alt-weekly). I’m not sure I agree with the final analysis (they say it was mostly a matter of tone) but it’s thought-provoking.

• OH-Sen: Dennis Kucinich announced yesterday that he would not be a candidate for the open Senate seat in Ohio, saying he wanted to spend more time with his mothership. (D)

• WA-08: Darcy Burner makes it official that she won’t be running a third time in WA-08; she throws her endorsement behind Suzan DelBene, another former Microsoft exec who hasn’t run for office before. Don’t expect DelBene to have the primary field to herself, though.

• CT-Gov: After a few years out of the spotlight, Ned Lamont is exploring a run for Connecticut governor. Jodi Rell hasn’t decided whether she’s going to run for re-election, and Lamont might also face a crowded Dem primary field.

• IL-Sen: The prospect of a special election to replace Roland Burris was unlikely, given the expense, and now it just got a lot unlikelier: a 3-2 party-line vote against the election in a state senate committee has effectively put the idea to bed.

• CO-Sen: The first Republican opponent for Michael Bennet (or another victor of a Democratic primary) has surfaced, and it’s not the highest-profile guy around: Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (who’d mostly been discussed as a challenger to Betsy Markey in CO-04). Ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez may be the GOP’s top recruit left who’s still interested, but he hasn’t made anything official yet.

• Blue Dogs: The Blue Dog Coalition two years ago capped its enrollment at 20% of the Dem caucus, but they agreed to raise their limit to 21% to accommodate two additional members. New members include the four freshmen who ran under the Blue Dogs’ endorsement (Bobby Bright, Parker Griffith, Frank Kratovil, and Walt Minnick), two veterans who’ve been on the waiting list (Henry Cuellar and Harry Mitchell), and two more last-minute additions thanks to the lifted cap (Glenn Nye and Jason Altmire). The NRCC has sent out a hilarious press release attacking vulnerable Democratic freshmen who didn’t join the Blue Dogs (such as Larry Kissell), claiming that they were rejected for not meeting the Blue Dogs’ litmus test for fiscal discipline, but the Blue Dogs, to their credit, fired back, saying that the representatives in question didn’t ask to join.

• Votes: Speaking of Blue Dogs, they provided most of the defections on yesterday’s 234-191 vote on the Helping Families Save Their Homes Act, which included the controversial mortgage modification provision. After all the agitas from Ellen Tauscher and other New Dems, they almost all voted yea. There were 24 Democratic nays, with Eric Massa probably the biggest surprise: also Mike Arcuri, Marion Berry, Dan Boren, Rick Boucher, Bobby Bright, Travis Childers, Kathy Dahlkemper, Lincoln Davis, Chet Edwards, Brad Ellsworth, Bart Gordon, Parker Griffith, Baron Hill, Tim Holden, Ron Kind, Larry Kissell, Frank Kratovil, Betsy Markey, Jim Matheson, Bart Stupak, Gene Taylor, and Harry Teague. (Big ups to Walt Minnick, who voted yea.) 7 Republican yeas: Mike Castle, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Mario Diaz-Balart, Walter Jones, John McHugh, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, and Jim Turner. (Joe Cao didn’t vote.)

• TN-06: Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon gets a challenger: Dave Evans, a Major General in the United States Army Reserve. Rick Goddard 2.0? (J)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/2-4, registered voters):

Charlie Melancon (D): 41

David Vitter (R-inc): 48

Don Cazayoux (D): 39

David Vitter (R-inc): 48

Charlie Melancon (D): 40

Jay Dardenne (R): 49

Don Cazayoux (D): 38

Jay Dardenne (R): 50

(MoE: ±4%)

David Vitter (R-inc): 43

Jay Dardenne (R): 32

Stormy Daniels (R): 1

(MoE: ±5%)

David Vitter still seems to have an edge in his quest for re-election to his Louisiana senate seat, but it looks like he could have a rocky time of it in both the primary and the general. Vitter is polling below the 50% mark in each, and he has a lukewarm 49/42 favorable/unfavorable.

Vitter performs about the same against both Democrats polled (Rep. Charlie Melancon and ex-Rep. Don Cazayoux, neither of whom seem to be moving in the direction of running). Neither Melancon nor Cazayoux seems well-known outside their respective districts, so this is basically a test of “Generic D.” (Names that get talked up more as the eventual candidate include ex-Rep. Chris John, who lost to Vitter in 2004, and former Louisiana Democratic Party head Jim Bernhard, not that either of them are well-known, either.)

On the other hand, notice that Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne perfoms just as well as David Vitter, if slightly better. It may be that we’re seeing “Generic R” on the GOP side as well, and partisan lines are pretty hard-set (at least at this point, before people know much about the individual candidates). Dardenne is being talked up for the race by others, but publicly has been noncommital so far; out of all the favorables/unfavorables in this poll, Dardenne fares the best of anybody at 48/22.

Despite Dardenne’s favorables, Vitter beats Dardenne in the primary — not surprising, given how conservative the Louisiana GOP base is, and that Dardenne is something of a moderate figure while Vitter has been charging to the right. However, there’s a wild card here that wasn’t polled: Family Research Council honcho Tony Perkins, who has made his interest in the race known. It would be interesting to see Perkins polled in this race, both whether the polarizing religious right talking head would fare worse than Vitter in the general, and his effect on the primary. It’s possible that in a 3-way primary, with Vitter and Perkins splitting the hard-right vote, Dardenne could sneak through with the support of what passes for moderates in Louisiana. (As you can see, the Stormy Daniels candidacy hasn’t aroused much interest yet, although I’m sure she won’t take that lying down.)

Field Poll (2/20-3/1, registered voters):

Dianne Feinstein (D): 38

Jerry Brown (D): 16

Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 16

Gavin Newsom (D): 10

John Garamendi (D): 4

Steve Westly (D): 2

Bill Lockyer (D): 1

Jack O’Connell (D): 1

Jerry Brown (D): 26

Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 22

Gavin Newsom (D): 16

John Garamendi (D): 8

Steve Westly (D): 2

Bill Lockyer (D): 2

Jack O’Connell (D): 2

(MoE: ±5.5%)

Meg Whitman (R): 21

Tom Campbell (R): 18

Steve Poizner (R): 7

(MoE: ±5.8%)

Lake Research (D) (2/17-2-19, likely voters):

Jerry Brown (D): 27

Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 20

Gavin Newsom (D): 14

John Garamendi (D): 8

Steve Westly (D): 3

Jack O’Connell (D): 1

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Jerry Brown (D): 43

Meg Whitman (R): 27

Jerry Brown (D): 41

Steve Poizner (R): 30

Gavin Newsom (D): 40

Meg Whitman (R): 25

Gavin Newsom (D): 38

Steve Poizner (R): 29

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Two polls are out in the 2010 California governor’s race, the big enchilada of all the gubernatorial seats. One is from Field, the gold-standard of California pollsters; the other is from Democratic internal pollster Lake Research (which doesn’t have a candidate in the race). Field polls both primaries but not the general; Lake polls the Dem primary and some general head-to-heads. Taken cumulatively, the most likely result seems to be that Governor Moonbeam may well ride again, in one of politics’ most surprising second (or third or fourth) acts.

The Field Poll does two different runs on the Democratic primary, and finds that were Senator Dianne Feinstein to run, she’d mop up the rest of the field. While she has been occasionally linked to this race, she hasn’t made any visible moves toward running. Without Feinstein in the mix, AG Jerry Brown has a bit of an edge over Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. One interesting tidbit from the Field Poll is that young voters have no idea who Jerry Brown is (he was governor in the 70s, long enough ago that he’s grandfathered out of California’s term limits laws, allowing him to come back for more). Only 8% of 18-to-39 year-old voters support Brown, and 30% have no opinion of him.

On the Republican side, Field gives a small lead to former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, who was a big McCain booster and seems to be staking out the party’s right flank. Ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (who lost the 2000 Senate race to DiFi and hasn’t sought office since then) does surprisingly well, considering how long he’s been out of the spotlight; apparently the moderate wing of the California GOP is still alive and kicking. Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner is a distant third, although he may shoot up once his free-spending ways kick in, especially given that more than half the GOP voters are undecided.

Lake puts up very similar numbers in the primary as the Feinstein-free Field poll. As for the general, they run head-to-heads involving Brown and Newsom, and find the Dems in pretty good shape, winning each matchup by double digits. Undecideds are still high (in the 30% ballpark), as would be expected at this point, but a Dem pickup is looking like a real possibility, assuming the primary doesn’t get too bloody.

• FL-Sen: Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio has formed an exploratory committee for the Senate seat that Mel Martinez is vacating. However, if Crist runs, Rubio will bail to run for Governor, instead. (J)

• NY-Sen-B: This would be pretty serious. Long Island Democratic Congressman Steve Israel is said to be considering a primary run against Kirsten Gillibrand, according to the NY Times. Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer and Rep. Carolyn Maloney are also openly mulling the race. (J)

• KS-Gov: Looks like Kansas Dems are back to the drawing board not just in terms of the senate seat but also the governor’s mansion. Lt. Gov Mark Parkinson, who will be taking over for soon-to-be-ex-Governor Kathleen Sebelius, has reaffirmed his earlier statement that he wouldn’t seek the governor’s seat in 2010.

• PA-Sen: Glen Meakem, a Pittsburgh-area right-wing internet entrepreneur, was one of the fallback options for a conservative primary challenge to Arlen Specter. He’s backed out of the fray, apparently deferring to Pat Toomey’s renewed interest in the race. (You may remember Meakem as the guy who personally financed those internal “polls” showing John Murtha neck-and-neck with his defrauder challenger last year.)

• RNC: The RNC is transferring $1 million each to the NRSC and NRCC to help them dig out from under the 2008 debt and get back on the offensive. In other RNC news, one of the RNC’s three African-American members, Dr. Ada Fisher of North Carolina, is calling on RNC chair Michael Steele to step down in the face of his increasing, well, ridiculousness.

• Census: Incoming Commerce Sec. Gary Locke says the Census will stay a part of his portfolio at Commerce. It also looks that sampling, which is the real methodological sticking point that’s the source of the political squabble over census management, won’t be used aggressively; Locke said that sampling will be used “minimally, as an accuracy check.”

• NH-St. Sen.: It’s all but official: former Rep. Jeb Bradley is downshifting his career, to say the least. Tomorrow he’ll announce his candidacy for the New Hampshire state senate in SD-3. This will be an open seat vacated by a Republican, so it’s not even a potential GOP pickup. (Trivia time: I can think of at least two other ex-Representatives who are currently state senators. Can anybody name them?)

MI-11 is positioned to be one of the Dems’ top pickup possibilities in 2010; it’s a district that Obama won 54-45, where Bad Thad McCotter squeaked past a no-name challenger last year, and where McCotter’s anti-stimulus vote is particularly jarring in one of the most economically hard-hit districts in the country. But we have to have the right candidate to do it, and the Dems’ top recruit, state House speaker Andy Dillon, just said no:

House Speaker Andy Dillon (D-Redford Twp.), in Washington D.C. to push for more federal loan money for the Big Three automaker, confirmed today he was approached in the nation’s capital to run in the 11th Congressional District in 2010, but he “respectfully declined.”

Dillon is prevented by term limits from another go-round in the state House, so it’s not as if he has to fear giving up his current seat for a 50-50 shot against McCotter. It might be that he has his eye on something else (possibly the governor’s race, where the most prominent Dem interested so far is Lt. Gov. John Cherry, who may suffer from his ties to unpopular current Gov. Jennifer Granholm).