Author: DavidNYC

He hasn’t even taken office yet, and already Eliot Spitzer is working his magic:

Governor-elect Eliot Spitzer stunned the state’s political establishment yesterday when he announced he had crossed party lines to appoint state Sen. Michael Balboni, an influential Long Island Republican, as his homeland security czar.

Just some cabinet appointment, right? So what, you say? Not so slow:

What elevates Balboni as a master political stroke is that his seat has a great chance to go Democratic in an upcoming special election. The GOP recently lost every statewide race. With its Senate majority down to three seats – Balboni caved in to party pressure last year not to run for attorney general – the loss of his seat could hasten the fall of the state’s last GOP bastion of power.

Republicans currently hold a slim 34-28 advantage in the state Senate. That means we need just three more seats to take control of the body. (The Lt. Gov., soon to be a Dem, gets to break ties.) If we can take Balboni’s seat, then we’d only need two pickups (though more would be better, of course) before redistricting. And winning here is very possible.

New York’s 7th state Senate district has a voter registration breakdown (PDF) of 38D-35R-23I, with minor parties making up the rest. A special election will likely take place soon, in February. (Because this is New York and everything has not yet changed on Day One, there won’t be a primary.) Newsday offers up a list of names being considered by the establishment on both sides.

Undoubtedly the state GOP will throw everything it has into this race, since the Senate is its last remaining bastion. But the Dems will do the same, and given how unpopular Republicans have become of late throughout the state and especially on Long Island, this race may even tilt Dem ever so slightly.

(Hat tip to The Albany Project for the links in this post.)

The following incumbent House Dems won with 55% or less this year. The chart is sorted by margin of victory:

District	Member	Margin	PVI
GA-12	Barrow	0.61%	D+2.1
GA-08	Marshall	1.09%	R+8.4
IA-03	Boswell	5.20%	D+1.4
IN-07	Carson	7.42%	D+8.7
IL-08	Bean	7.48%	R+5.2
OR-05	Hooley	11.39%	D+0.5
LA-03	Melancon	14.70%	R+4.8

Melancon and Bean are rising sophomores and both won very narrowly in 2004. It’s not a surprise to see them here, especially since Bean received an insanely well-funded challenge this year. Both Melancon and Bean also had their vote totals chiseled away at the left, in Bean’s case by a former Dem who ran as a third-party spoiler this year, and in Melancon’s by a nobody Dem who was able to run on Nov. 7th in Louisiana’s, ah, unique “jungle primary” system.

Carson, Boswell, and Hooley (all multi-year incumbents) are on the under-55 list for the second straight cycle. Boswell’s margin was nearly halved (10.5% in 2004), though he also received a serious top-tier challenge. He hasn’t had an easy pass since 2000, though, and his bouts with illness (Boswell is in his 70s) seem to make him a regular target.

Carson’s health and age are also continually an issue in her district, and, like Boswell, she hasn’t gotten over 55% since 2000. Unlike Boswell, though, her last two challengers were absolute nobodies who raised nothing. Her margin from 2004 to 2006 also shrunk more than three points, despite this being a strong Democratic year. And, as you can see, her district is by far the bluest on this list – John Kerry won here 58-42.

Hooley, meanwhile, did about three points better this time around, despite facing a challenger who raised almost $1.8m. 2004 was no cakewalk either, when her opponent raised $1.3m.

That leaves the two Georgia members, Barrow and Marshall. Both saw their districts become much more Republican after the GA state legislature embarked on a mid-decade redistricting (following Tom DeLay’s cue in Texas). Barrow, like Bean and Melancon, was also a freshman. Both he and Marshall also saw top-tier, big-money challenges. Yes, they barely held on in a big Dem wave, but they also ran in districts which were half-new to them.

To put this list in some perspective, the following GOPers who got under 55% in 2004 lost this year: Rob Simmons (CT-02); Chris Chocola (IN-02); John Hostettler (IN-08); and Mike Sodrel (IN-09). Bob Beauprez’s open seat (CO-07) also changed hands. And Chris Shays (CT-04), Jon Porter (NV-03), Heather Wilson (NM-01), Randy Kuhl (NY-29), Jim Gerlach (PA-06) and Dave Reichert (WA-08) all had very close shaves.

It begins:

On the political front, Senator John Bonacic, whose district is in the Hudson Valley, became the first Republican to call openly for Mr. Bruno to step down as majority leader, a rare act of defiance among Senate Republicans.

“We can’t have a leader under investigation by the F.B.I. after we have taken such a beating in New York and nationally,” Mr. Bonacic said in an interview. “We deal in political perceptions, and in our business, perception is almost 90 percent of reality,” he added.

Few members of the Senate have been willing to talk publicly about Mr. Bruno and his political viability. Privately, some Senators have expressed concern that one of their first tasks next month will be re-electing Mr. Bruno as the temporary president of the Senate – even though he is facing a federal inquiry. They fear that the vote could further weaken the already wounded State Republican Party just as a popular Democrat, Eliot Spitzer, takes office as governor, promising to reform Albany’s reputation for corruption.

As I suggested elsewhere, this development doesn’t surprise me. State Senate leader is the top job for NY Republicans now, now that the GOP has no real hope for capturing a statewide race any time soon. Now that this Bonacic has come out against Bruno, others – like those anonymous state senators mentioned in that last paragraph – may soon follow.

But already, we’re being treated to ringside seats to an intra-party brawl:

“I’m sure the conference is very much behind Joe Bruno,” said Senator Martin Golden, a Brooklyn Republican. “I think it’s premature for Bonacic or any senators to come out with this statement, very premature.”

Another story like this and I’ll be forced to title my next post “Repubs in Disarray.” I can’t wait.

P.S. This Albany Times-Union article has a bit more on the back-story here with Bonacic. (H/T The Albany Project.)

One topic I started thinking about even before election day was, “How do traditionally vulnerable freshmen reps get re-elected in two years’ time?” Obviously, the simple answer is “raise a lot of money,” and that’s good advice for everyone. But beyond that, what should you do?

Well, unlikely victor Dave Loebsack – who unseated long, long-time Rep. Jim Leach in IA-02 – didn’t rest on his laurels after election day. He’s thinking creatively about the challenges that lie ahead in just two years. CQ Politics has a great story about exactly what Loebsack is up to:

Yet even with his epic political achievement, Loebsack won by a narrow vote of 51 percent to 48 percent – not the kind of margin that suggests he has a lock on re-election in 2008.

So even before his Jan. 4 induction as a member of the 110th Congress, Loebsack has been applying campaign-like vigor to raising his profile and developing a stronger rapport with his new congressional constituents – keeping a busy schedule of town hall meetings and “listening posts” in cities and towns across the southeastern Iowa district.

Loebsack’s political challenge is to deal quickly with the perception that his victory was not a resounding affirmation of his candidacy nor even a referendum on the well-liked Leach, but rather a reflection of a political mood that may not be relevant should the Democrat seek re-election in 2008.

…

Since winning on Nov. 7, Loebsack has met with chambers of commerce across the 2nd District and has held meetings with local residents from Ottumwa in the southern part of the district to Cedar Rapids in the north.

“I don’t want this to be a period when I’m somehow out of touch with people in the district,” Loebsack said. “After all, I’m going to Congress to represent them.”

Local observers say Loebsack’s series of constituent events is a smart way to raise his profile during the “honeymoon” period between his election and the start of the 110th Congress. As an academic from the northern part of the 2nd – which also includes strongly Democratic-leaning Iowa City, home to the University of Iowa – Loebsack needs to build his ties with the more rural and conservative voters, including some Democrats, in the southern part of the district.

I recommend reading the entire piece. And in fact,  this article is just first in a series. New entries include Steve Kagen (WI-08) and netroots candidate Tim Walz. There are lessons here for every freshman. Just take a look at how hard Loebsack has been working since the election – and he won in what was the second-most Democratic district held by a Republican in the nation. If he needs to show some hustle, then everyone does.

I’m probably heading down to Washington, DC for the swearing-in of the 110th Congress on Jan. 4th. Are any other SSP folks gonna be around, and if so, what parties, receptions, etc. are you headed to? I’ll definitely be hanging with the Hodes folks, but I’d also like to make the rounds. I have this hunch that the mood will be very festive for our side this time around!

Could it really be? Via the Albany-Times Union’s blog:

Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno, R-Brunswick, called a press conference this evening to confirm he is being investigated by the FBI, which has launched an inquiry into his business dealings through his consulting company, Capital Business Consultants.

It’s not yet clear, though, what the FBI is investigating. Yet.

The senator refused to discuss what, exactly, the FBI is looking into. He declined to say whether it has anything to do with Evident Technologies Inc. – the company to which he steered $500,000 via two state grants with no strings attached.

Bruno has personal ties to several of Evident’s directors, Jared Abbruzzese, one of the company’s founders and a former co-chair, and Wayne Barr – both of whom share the senator’s interest in horse racing.

Abbruzzese is being investigated by the state Lobbying Commission for providing his plane to Bruno for several trips, including a fund-raiser and a tour of several Kentucky horse farms that Barr arranged.

One thing you should disregard, though, is Bruno’s claim that he is “not a target” of the investigation. Here’s why:

[Washington attorney Stanley M.] Brand said that distinctions in a federal criminal manual between a “target,” someone the Justice Department has decided to seek charges against, and a “subject,” someone under investigation who could be upgraded to a target, are largely meaningless in a practical sense.

“You can’t take these distinctions to the bank, because the Justice Department can change your status whenever it wants to,” Brand said.

Brand was talking about Conrad Burns, and you can see how well that bit of verbal legerdemain worked out for old Burnsie. Same, too, with Bob Ney, who claimed he wasn’t a “target” almost until he was indicted. He’s now going to be sentenced to prison next month.

This story also gives me an opportunity to do something long overdue, which is to tell you about a new SoapBlox blog that’s opened up shop right in my political neighborhood. The Albany Project is dedicated to shining a much-needed light on corrupt, obscurantist the New York state legislative apparatus (ranked as the worst out of all 50 by the Brennan Center). The site’s already been following this story closely, and it’ll be the place to go for continuous coverage of this potentially explosive news.

UPDATE (David): My back-of-the-envelope figures say that Bonilla would need almost 54% of the outstanding vote in order to eke out a win. Doable, but looking increasingly difficult. Meanwhile, Karl says that Ciro is up to 58% in Bexar now.

UPDATE (David): Polls close at 7pm Central/8pm Eastern. And Karl informs me that he’ll be live-blogging the results at Burnt Orange. You can also get results at the TX SoS and the Bexar Co. Elections Dept..

UPDATE (James L.): As mentioned, KT at BurntOrange is all over the results tonight.  A couple of key posts to track as you refresh the TX SoS page include KT’s breakdown of county results for the Nov. 7th election, tallying aggregate Democratic votes to total Bonilla votes.  KT has taken it a step further by tracking the vote tallies as they’ve come in, and comparing the results to 11/7.  So far, not bad–especially in the heavily populated Bexar County.

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Four days, two elections. Tuesday is the run-off between Dem Ciro Rodriguez and Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla. The only poll of the race showed Bonilla with a seven-point lead, but the DCCC has spent close to a million dollars here, which suggests they know something.

I’m not sure what sites to recommend to follow the results, though I imagine that MySanAntonio.com will carry them. (If you have any suggestions, let us know in comments.) And for commentary and analysis,  the Burnt Orange Report is your place to be.

Update (James L.): As noted in the comments, if you have the time tomorrow to do some last-minute phonebanking for Ciro, please do so.  If you want more of an indication that the CW surrounding this distict–that Bonilla is unbeatable, especially by a badly underfunded Rodriguez–has been turned on its head, check out this testimony by converted skeptic Jaime Castillo of the San Antonio Express-News:

Momentum is a fickle thing in politics.

But it has become clear down the stretch of the Congressional District 23 race that one candidate – Ciro Rodriguez – has some mojo, and one – Henry Bonilla – is trying to get some back.

Let me be clear before the guys in white lab coats show up in my office: Momentum doesn’t necessarily mean that Rodriguez will pull a stunning upset Tuesday.

But it does mean that a race many thought Congressman Bonilla would win 56 percent to 44 percent several weeks ago is going to be much closer than that.

The signs of a tight horserace are now too many to discount.

They include:

Bonilla’s late decision to not only go negative in TV and radio ads, but to go with over-the-top spots that paint Rodriguez as having terrorist ties;

The continued involvement of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee with personnel, polls and expensive ads on behalf of Rodriguez;

Bonilla’s decision not to ignore, but to run a response to a critical DCCC spot that says Bonilla voted eight times to give himself a raise (The Bonilla ad says Rodriguez voted four times for congressional pay hikes);

And, finally, President Clinton’s swing through San Antonio on Sunday on behalf of Rodriguez.

Unless this race is close, none of those things happen.

Bonilla wouldn’t go negative. The national Democrats wouldn’t stick around. And Clinton would certainly have something better to do on the Sabbath than stump for a lost cause in San Antonio.

(Hat-tip to BOR.)

A little late with this week’s open thread, but here it is. The TX-23 run-off brings this cycle’s elections to a close. Then we’re on to 2007-08. Speaking of which, Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS), who is pushing 70, is considering retirement according to this report at fellow SoapBlox site BlueSunbelt. Interesting. Very interesting.

Today is election day for the Louisiana second Congressional district runoff between Democrats Karen Carter and Bill Jefferson. The winner gets to join the majority caucus in the 110th Congress starting in January. Tim tells us what to be on the lookout for:

Here are some notes to keep on eye on this evening: 1.) There are rumors that some members of the CBC have sent staffers down to help Jefferson.  I’ll try and see what I can dig up on that.  2.) East Bank turnout vs. West Bank turnout and how many votes Carter is able to syphon away from the other side of the river.  3.) The racial divide.  4.) Are we going to see busses bringing people in to vote from outside the district.  If we do in large numbers, advantage Jefferson.  5.) How many people stay both stay at home/vote for Jefferson in the hopes at getting another crack at him in two years, or sooner if he’s no longer able to serve.

Polls close tonight at 8pm Central/9pm Eastern. The NOLA.com/Times-Picayune site looks like a good place to watch results as they come in.

UPDATE: Results are coming in. Via NOLA.com:

71 of 492 Precincts Reporting

Karen Carter (D): 47%
Bill Jefferson (D-inc.): 53%

Polls only closed 40 minutes ago, so we likely still have a while yet to go.

UPDATE: WWLTV appears to have quicker updates. They show Jefferson ahead, 54-46, with 43% of precincts reporting.

UPDATE: Wow, that was depressingly quick. Tim says that local TV is already calling it for Jefferson. Suck.

Who do you want to see run for Senate in 2008? That’s what we’re talking about in this post.

This is the second Senate recruitment open thread here on Swing State Project (the first one was here, and we saw all kinds of great suggestions). We’re going in alphabetical order, five GOP-held seats at a time. Links are to the Race Tracker wiki, and incumbents are in parens:

6) Kansas (Pat Roberts)

7) Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)

8) Maine (Susan Collins)

9) Minnesota (Norm Coleman)

10) Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

As I said the first time:

Don’t limit yourself to politicians. Businesspeople, community leaders, activists – even athletes or celebrities (think Heath Shuler or Al Franken) – are all fair game. Even seemingly outlandish suggestions are welcome. Would you have ever predicted that the guitarist from Orleans would now be a Congressman-elect?

However, please do limit yourself to the five races listed in this post. I know everyone is eager to talk about the whole slate of races we’ve got lined up, but I promise that we’ll get to each batch separately. I think we can have a more productive discussion, though, if we stay focused and only deal with a chunk of races at time.

So, what’ve you got?