Author: DavidNYC

Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (1/16-20, likely voters, 12/2-8 in parens):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 44 (49)

Dan Hynes (D): 40 (23)

Other: 2 (7)

Undecided: 13 (21)

(MoE: ±4%)

These are some pretty remarkable trendlines, though the toplines are very close to a recent Hynes internal, which had him down 44-37. As the Tribune notes, Hynes (the state’s Comptroller) has been hammering Quinn on TV, aided by his somewhat surprisingly larger warchest. Hynes’s jump is also a tribute to the power of negative campaigning, as this race has turned quite ugly – he’s come under fire of late for ads which dredge up hoary old Chicago racial politics. This move may backfire on Hynes, but with the primary just over a week away, there’s no doubt that this contest is very much a tossup.

(An aside: For an excellent exegesis on the importance of Harold Washington, Chicago’s first black mayor, and how his ascent and untimely death made an indellible mark on the city’s politics, I highly recommend Barack Obama’s Dreams from My Father. Obama’s years as a community organizer in Chicago came during and after Washington’s tenure.)

The Tribune also polled the GOP primary:

Andy McKenna (R): 19 (12)

Jim Ryan (R): 18 (26)

Kirk Dillard (R): 14 (9)

Bill Brady (R): 9 (10)

Adam Andrzejewski (R): 7 (6)

Other: 14

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4%)

Talk about unsettled – and what a drop for Ryan, the former AG (and not to be confused with disgraced former Gov. George Ryan or disgraced 2004 GOP senate nominee Jack Ryan). I tend to think that Ryan would be the GOP’s strongest candidate, but he’s suffered at the hands of McKenna (the former state party chair), who, like Hynes, has been blitzing the airwaves. Interestingly, McKenna has also targeted Quinn, which might also help explain Hynes’s surge. In any event, much like the Dem primary, this is anybody’s race.

The full polling memo is not available online yet, but I’d expect the Tribune to post it here. (It’s nice to see the tradmed making better use of resources like Scribd and putting original documents online to allow greater scrutiny.) I also expect that the Trib will release senate numbers soon as well.

Like a head coach whose heavily-favored team craters early in the playoffs, DSCC Chair Bob Menendez has to be feeling pretty vulnerable right now. If Menendez were to get pushed aside from his current role, who could take his place? Whom would you want to take his place? The floor’s all yours.

With all but five precincts reporting, this is what tonight’s election results look like on a town-by-town basis (click image for larger version):

UPDATE: Jeffmd does some quick number crunching to look at performance by congressional district. The preliminary conclusions:

Coakley Wins: 1st, 7th, 8th

Uncertain, but likely Brown wins: 4th, 9th

Brown Wins: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 10th

UPDATE: Dave Wasserman tweets:

Q: Where are the other potential Dem collapse areas this Nov? A: Almost precisely the places Hillary carried in the 08 prez primary

He’s definitely on to something. Below is a map of the 2008 presidential primary results in Massachusetts between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Red is Clinton, blue is Obama:

The results between tonight’s race and the presidential primary correlate at a rate of 0.56, which is quite high.

This is the end… my only friend, the end.

Yesterday, the DCCC announced a list of twenty-six “races to watch” as part of their “efforts to stay on offense this cycle.” The D-Trip has divided its list into two tiers, “Top Races” and “Emerging Races,” but hasn’t offered a description of the distinction between them. To wit, the list:

I’ll note that two of these seats, though, are currently blue. That’s obviously not part of our “offense,” and to me, it sends a bad message to leave off all the other vulnerable Dem-held open seats. Anyhow, it’s nice to see this list, I suppose, but there’s no doubt we’ll be playing vastly more defense than offense this cycle.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (1/7-9, likely voters, no trendlines):

Martha Coakley (D): 47

Scott Brown (R): 48

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Some findings from Tom Jensen:

• As was the case in the Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia last year, it looks like the electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008. Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.

• Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are ‘very excited’ about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that’s among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.

• Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama’s plan with 59% opposed.

Tom also offers some thoughts on how he thinks Coakley can win, and says that PPP will be back in the field next weekend. Taegan Goddard also has this update:

Meanwhile, polls from the Boston Globe and Boston Herald should be released in the morning.

A source tells Jim Geraghty that the Globe poll finds Coakley ahead by 15 points and the Herald poll finds her ahead by seven points — but just one point among likely voters.

Mark Blumenthal also promised that Pollster would put up a trend chart once it has a fifth poll of this race (PPP makes five).

UPDATE: The Boston Globe’s poll is out. As usual, it was conducted by UNH, a pollster whose methodologies I mistrust and whom we usually relegate to the digest – indeed, Dean Barker of the indispensible Blue Hampshire has rightly eviscerated UNH director Andy Smith for inhabiting “Cloud Hampshire.” I’m not sure their Massachusetts results are any better, but anyhow, here goes:

UNH (1/2-6, likely voters incl. leaners, no trendlines):

Martha Coakley (D): 53

Scott Brown (R): 36

Undecided/Other: 11

(MoE: ±4.2%)

I’m not going to cherrypick – I don’t like UNH when they’ve got bad news for Dems, so I’m not going to relax just because this survey happens to show good news for Dems. In fact, the full polling memo hasn’t been published yet (though I expect it will appear here if it does go online), so there’s no way to even know what assumptions Andy Smith is making. (UPDATE: The memo is now available here.)

The Swing State Project recently announced changes to ten race ratings. Since then, we’ve added three more races to the list (MA-Sen, IL-Gov & OH-Gov). Our writeups for all of these are below. You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.

Senate races:

AR-Sen (Lincoln): Lean D to Tossup

With Chris Dodd out of the picture, conventional wisdom is starting to coalesce around Blanche Lincoln as the Democrats’ most vulnerable Senate incumbent. She has a few things still in her favor: a sizable warchest, a 2010 ballot shared with popular Dem governor Mike Beebe, and most importantly, no top-tier opponents – just a grab-bag of Republican odds and ends in a state with little GOP bench (with state Sen. Gilbert Baker the main contender).

However, the decline in Democratic fortunes over the last few years was perhaps most precipitous of all states in Arkansas, and some of that has rubbed off on Lincoln. She’s trailing even her weaker Republican opponents according to Rasmussen, while other pollsters find the Lincoln/Baker matchup a dead heat. Her conservative positioning on health care has fizzled, having served only to enrage her base while winning her no new fans on the righ. Lincoln, who may also face a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, has little time left to right her capsizing ship. (C)

AZ-Sen (McCain): Safe R to RTW

Former Rep. J. D. Hayworth has put this once-sleepy race on the map. Hayworth, a bull-headed conservative, has been making noises about challenging John McCain in the Republican primary, recently saying that he’s “testing the waters” for a potential bid. Even though the allegedly Mavericky McCain pretty much dropped all pretense of having anything in common with Democrats once he began his presidential run, somehow he’s still mistrusted by the right. When the tribe speaks, it may well be McCain who gets voted off the island.

Sadly, Democrats don’t really have anyone who could capitalize on a potential Hayworth coup. The only announced candidate is one Rudy Garcia, former mayor of the town of Bell Gardens (pop. 45,000). Not so helpfully, Bell Gardens is in California. This race seems ripe for a young up-and-comer looking to raise his or her profile – no one will blame you for losing to John McCain, and hey, you might get a chance to take on Hayworth instead. Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman, who has formed an exploratory committee, might fit the bill. It’ll be a while yet before we know if Team Blue can make any waves here, though. (D)

CO-Sen (Bennet): Lean D to Tossup

Michael Bennet, the former Denver schools superintendent appointed to fill the vacant Senate seat, has had a year to introduce himself to his constituents and still doesn’t seem to have made much of an impression. Bennet may be well-connected and a monster fundraiser, but he seems a little short on charisma and retail politicking talent. For a while this year, he seemed safe simply by virtue of having third-tier opposition, but with the entry of former Republican Lt. Governor Jane Norton this summer, he’s facing a competitive race. And things are complicated by a primary challenge from former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, although Romanoff has seemed lately to struggle to get any traction (and may even change over to the now-open gubernatorial race).

It’s hard to get a handle on this contest, as only Rasmussen has been polling it lately. They’ve been finding leads over both Bennet and Romanoff for Norton and some of the Republicans’ lesser lights as well. The Democrats’ decline in Colorado this year has been across the boards (affecting Obama approvals and Gov. Bill Ritter), and that seems to be hampering the blank-slate-ish Bennet as well. One item in Bennet’s favor, though, is that the withdrawal of the unpopular Ritter and a potential upgrade to the better-liked John Hickenlooper may help pull him across the finish line in November. (C)

IA-Sen (Grassley): RTW to Likely R

Chuck Grassley is a seemingly entrenched, allegedly sometimes “moderate” Republican, sitting on a decent ($4.4 mil) pile of cash in a state which has elected him five times – in other words, a tough nut to crack. Dems did a good job landing a very credible candidate, though – former gubernatorial candidate and super-lawyer Roxanne Conlin. Conlin is personally wealthy and, as one-time president of the Association of Trial Lawyers of America, she ought to have good connections to other well-to-do attorneys. We’ll be watching her fourth-quarter fundraising reports very closely.

Meanwhile, Grassley’s approval ratings – which typically were sky-high for most of his career – have slipped in recent months. He’s still the heavy favorite here, and Conlin has a lot of work to do. But this race is now officially on the map. (D)

IL-Sen (Open): Lean D to Tossup

Democratic front-runner Alexi Giannoulias’s baggage is well-known at this point, so there’s no need for us to rehash his troubles here. Suffice it to say we’re concerned that the battle-hardened GOP Rep. Mark Kirk can exploit these weaknesses in a general election. Democratic internal polling (from primary opponent David Hoffman and from Giannoulias’ own pollster) has placed Giannoulias either down or up on Kirk by a scant three points. This suggests to us that Giannoulias can’t count on the usual generous margin of error that this Dem-leaning state has given to the likes of Rod Blagojevich in the past.

It’s still possible that Hoffman or Cheryle Jackson could win the Democratic nomination, but the primary is less than a month away, and an upset seems unlikely. At the same time, any chance that teabagger Patrick Hughes might ding up Kirk are mostly evaporating, given the short time left. Still, the general election is a long ways off, and a well-disciplined campaign could dispel our doubts. But for now, it’s too difficult to give the Democratic field the edge. (J)

MA-Sen (Open): Safe D to Lean D

Democrats shouldn’t have to be at all worried about Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat – and yet, with the special election just a week away, here we are. The DSCC is sending out a fundraising email on behalf of Martha Coakley. Meanwhile, big gun Bill Clinton will campaign with Coakley next week. And there’s probably more to come.

But why? A Rasmussen poll showed a nine-point race between Coakley and GOPer Scott Brown, while Tom Jensen at PPP is about to release a survey he’s touted as showing a “losable” race for Team Blue. If internal polls were showing a prettier picture, we’d be seeing them. While it’s hard to believe things have come to this in the state of Massachusetts, many have faulted a lackluster Democratic campaign and general Democratic complacency – the sorts of things we saw a bunch of in 2009. At least there finally seems to be a sense of urgency about this race, though let’s hope it’s not too little, too late. (D)

PA-Sen (Specter): Lean D to Tossup

Some pretty credible polling has shown Democrats Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak in a dogfight against Republican Pat Toomey. After Specter switched, it was difficult to fathom  a Toomey win. But as is the case in most states, the underlying environment has become a lot less favorable for Democrats since last April, and Toomey’s taken advantage of the opportunity to keep his head down, stockpile arms, and refrain from saying anything insane. Indeed, Toomey’s lack of a primary challenged has allowed him to practice his crossover pitches to Democrats and independents (e.g. endorsing Sonia Sotomayor). After the Democrats settle their contentious primary, Toomey will need to be held to account, but that will be an expensive and surprisingly arduous task. (J)

TX-Sen (Hutchison): Likely R to RTW

Kay Bailey Hutchison has changed her mind about resigning her Senate seat a thousand times, and honestly, who the hell knows what she’s going to do at this point. One report says she’ll only step down if she beats Gov. Rick Perry in the GOP gubernatorial primary; another says she’ll bail no matter what happens. And even if she does win the Republican nod, she may want to hold on to her current job just a bit longer, given that she’d face a stiff Democratic challenge in November from Houston mayor Bill White. Since this Class I seat ordinarily wouldn’t be up again until 2012, we’re downgrading this contest to Race to Watch status until KBH actually makes a decision. (D)

Gubernatorial races:

IL-Gov (Quinn): RTW to Likely D

Republicans succeeded in bumping this race up a notch with the recruitment of former state AG Jim Ryan, who was last seen losing this race to Rod Blagojevich by a 52-45 spread in 2002. Ryan is a credible contender, and incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn is currently on the receiving end of hard hits from his primary opponent, state Comptroller Dan Hynes. There’s still plenty of time for this race to evolve, and if Illinois winds up like many of its Rust Belt brethren, this race will only get more competitive for the Democrats, not less so. But in the meantime, we’re starting off with a rating of Likely D. (J)

KS-Gov (Open): Likely R to Safe R

In November, the Dems finally landed a plausible candidate in an admittedly extremely uphill race, retired pharmaceutical executive Tom Wiggans. Unfortunately, just a month later, he dropped out. Dems are now trying to find a replacement, but it won’t be easy. Gov. Mark Parkinson (who filled Kathleen Sebelius’s spot when she joined the Obama administration) was asked if he’d reconsider his earlier decision not to run; the good news is that he didn’t offer a flat-out rejection, and he’d almost certainly be our strongest candidate. But unless and until he or someone else credible bites the bullet, this race is now Safe Republican. (D)

OH-Gov (Open): Lean D to Tossup

Gov. Ted Strickland was riding a wave of popularity for most of his first term, but he’s fallen victim to the same plague that’s afflicted many other Rust Belt governors. His approvals have dwindled alongside his state’s economy, particularly hard-hit by the decline in the manufacturing sector – and his fate is probably linked with how well the jobs market improves in the next year.

Strickland is facing off against ex-Rep. John Kasich, whose supply-side, free-trading economic conservatism doesn’t initially seem a good fit for blue-collar Ohio. Perhaps Strickland can regain the upper hand if he’s able to highlight Kasich’s relationship to those who helped cause the economic woes buffeting Ohio. But in the meantime, Kasich, functioning as something of a Generic R, is currently leading Strickland according to Rasmussen and polling close to him according to other pollsters. (C)

OR-Gov (Open): Lean D to Likely D

Here’s one of the few moves in the Democrats’ favor, and it has less to do with the national or even state atmosphere as it does with a complete recruiting failure on the Republicans’ part. Rep. Greg Walden was about the only Republican with a shot at making this a truly competitive race, and he said no thanks. Likable young state Sen. Jason Atkinson wouldn’t have likely won, but could have at least made it a spirited, high-energy race – but he, too, said no. That left the Republicans with an almost comedic assortment of spare parts: hopelessly moderate former Treasurer candidate Allen Alley, long-forgotten ex-state Sen. John Lim, and anti-tax initiative huckster Bill Sizemore, who’s likelier to be in prison come 2011 than in the governor’s mansion. Former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley seems left as the de facto frontrunner by virtue of his name recognition, personal pocketbook, and pleasant persona, but even party faithful seem flummoxed by his utter lack of substance so far.

The Democrats are facing a primary between two of their top statewide figures, ex-Governor John Kitzhaber and ex-SoS Bill Bradbury (with the outside possibility that populist Rep. Peter DeFazio may still join them). While it’s hard to imagine a primary between those two amiable guys turning rancorous, even a depleted and wounded primary victor would still have to be heavily favored against whatever the GOP offers up. (C)

TX-Gov (Perry): RTW to Likely R

Despite facing a challenging environment elsewhere in the country, Democrats appear to have their best shot at taking back the governor’s office in Texas in over a decade. Why? Because Team Blue has landed a legitimate top-flight candidate in outgoing Houston Mayor Bill White. White has broad appeal in metro Houston, which will be a big asset for Democrats, especially if GOP Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison’s primary challenge against incumbent Rick Perry results in serious intra-party damage for the Republicans.

Perry, who has to be considered the primary favorite at this point, is coming off an underwhelming 39% victory in 2006, making him about as appealing a target for Democrats as one can reasonably hope for. In truth, a Perry vs. White general election match-up is probably a shade better for Dems than “Likely R”, but we’re going to err on the side of caution for the time being. In terms of money raised, GOTV, polling, and messaging, White has a lot to prove before we can talk about Texas Democrats snapping their painfully long statewide losing skid. (J)

Still more big news today:

Former Comptroller William C. Thompson Jr., who lost to Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg in an unexpectedly close race in November, said on Tuesday that he had decided to run for mayor again in four years.

“I am not running for office this year; it is my intention to run for mayor in 2013,” he said in an interview. “While I have been flattered by the large number of people who have reached out to me to suggest that I run statewide this year, the issues I raised in New York City – the need for good-paying jobs and closing the affordability gap – those are issues I still feel strongly about.”

“While it’s a great state, I grew up in the city and love the city, and feel like I am uniquely qualified to be the mayor,” he said.

This is certainly one of the earliest imaginable announcements for any race, well, ever – but it’s probably the strongest move Thompson can make. All of the other races he was reportedly considering – against Kirsten Gillibrand for Senate, against Tom DiNapoli for state Comptroller, or against Charlie Rangel for the 15th CD House seat – would have involved primarying an incumbent, and a loss in any of those would likely have been a career-ender. Thompson may yet have to deal with a contested Dem primary for the mayoral race in four years’ time, but with this announcement, he’s the instant front-runner, and probably gives pause to other would-be contenders.

The person probably happiest about this right now is Gillibrand, who has managed to avoid primary challenges from a whole hell of a lot of people. The unhappiest? I’m guessing Rep. Anthony Weiner. While I’d expect him to try running again in 2013, Thompson now has a lot of cred as the guy who dared to take on Bloombo (and almost won) when no one else was willing. I’m not generally one to care about “waiting one’s turn,” but I think a lot of people who matter will feel that Thompson has earned a second shot, while Weiner bailed when the chips were down.

But about that Gillibrand streak of luck…

Encouraged by a group of influential New York Democrats, Harold Ford Jr., the former congressman from Tennessee, is weighing a bid to unseat Senator Kirsten E. Gillibrand in this fall’s Democratic primary, according to three people who have spoken with him.

Mr. Ford, 39, who moved to New York three years ago, has told friends that he will decide whether to run in the next 45 days. The discussions between Mr. Ford and top Democratic donors reflect the dissatisfaction of some prominent party members with Ms. Gillibrand, who has yet to win over key constituencies, especially in New York City.

About a dozen high-profile Democrats have expressed interest in backing a candidacy by Mr. Ford, including the financier Steven Rattner, who, along with his wife, Maureen White, has been among the country’s most prolific Democratic fund-raisers.

When this story first “broke,” I thought it had to be some kind of joke – sort of like Bob Kerrey’s absurd (and mercifully brief) flirtation with the idea for running for NYC mayor in 2005. But somehow, it looks like this crazy Ford idea is quite a bit more real than that. I simply can’t imagine how Ford, an extremely conservative Southerner who ran for office in Tenneesse just three years ago, could have much appeal to New York Democrats. While the comparisons to Hillary Clinton are inevitable, I think there are a hell of a lot more differences than similarities.

In any event, if Ford does run, nothing could make me want to support Gillibrand (about whom I’ve been quite lukewarm) more. I suspect a whole lot of other people and organizations will be similarly motivated. Ultimately, it sounds like Ford is being propelled by wealthy interests similar to those which backed Tom Suozzi in his suicidal run against Eliot Spitzer in the 2006 gubernatorial primary. While Gillibrand’s lock on the nomination isn’t quite as secure as Spitzer’s was, I think these moneybags will see their dollars run into a stiff wall of grassroots and establishment resistance. Democratic primary politics in New York state ain’t beanbag.

The Swing State Project is changing its ratings on seven Senate and three gubernatorial races:

• AR-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• AZ-Sen: Safe R to RTW
• CO-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• IA-Sen: RTW to Likely R
• IL-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• PA-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• TX-Sen: Likely R to RTW

• KS-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
• OR-Gov: Lean D to Likely D
• TX-Gov: RTW to Likely R

We’ll be posting full write-ups for all of these changes soon. In the meantime, the end of the year seems like a good time to post our full ratings charts, especially given the number of changes we’ve just made.

Our Senate chart:

Races to Watch:

     AZ (McCain)

     CA (Boxer)

     HI (Inouye)

     ND (Dorgan)

     NY-B (Gillibrand)

     TX (Hutchison)

     UT (Bennett)

     WI (Feingold)

Our gubernatorial chart:

Races to Watch:

     AK (Parnell)

     IL (Quinn)

     NY (Paterson)

     UT (Herbert)

The most hilarious, devastating, and insightful smackdown of the nightmare that was “The Phantom Menace,” part one:

The rest can be found here. Happy holidays!