Author: DavidNYC

Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (R) (PDF) for a “private client” (1/27-28, likely voters, no trendlines):

Marco Rubio (R): 44

Charlie Crist (R): 30

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±5.6%)

Charlie Crist (R): 47

Kendrick Meek (D): 29

Undecided: 24

Charlie Crist (R): 49

Maurice Ferre (D): 27

Undecided: 27

Marco Rubio (R): 42

Kendrick Meek (D): 30

Undecided: 28

Marco Rubio (R): 43

Maurice Ferre (D): 27

Undecided: 29

Kendrick Meek (D): 24

Marco Rubio (R): 31

Charlie Crist (I): 26

Undecided: 19

Maurice Ferre (D): 19

Marco Rubio (R): 32

Charlie Crist (I): 29

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Crisitunity teased this poll earlier, but now we have the full memo. The primary numbers can’t be seen as terribly surprising at this point, and the “Crist-as-indie” scenario is not too far off R2K’s test of this matchup. They had Crist 32, Meek 31, and Rubio 27, while here, Charlie is the man-in-the-middle. One obvious option this pollsters didn’t test was Crist running as a Dem. Who knows what axe Fabrizio’s mysterious client has to grind, but recall that R2K showed Crist (D) beating Rubio (R) by a healthy 45-34 margin. If you’re trying to ease Crist out of the Senate race, those are numbers you probably don’t want to flash.

Now, why would I suggest that this incognito polling sugar daddy would want to do something like that? Well, take a look at the rest of the nums FMA published:

Charlie Crist (R): 39

Bill McCollum (R): 31

Paula Dockery (R): 4

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±5.6%)

Alex Sink (D): 31

Charlie Crist (R): 48

Undecided: 22

Alex Sink (D): 32

Bill McCollum (R): 41

Undecided: 27

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Charlie Crist abandoned a gubernatorial election bid all the way back in May of last year, yet here we have poll numbers testing him in the gubernatorial race! What gives? Well, the polling memo is a bit heavy-handed about its intentions, with statements like: “The only GOP Primary Crist appears to be able to win this year is the Gubernatorial primary where he leads Bill McCollum by several points and performs far better across the board.” Hey, that’s probably true! But Charlie Crist’s advisors can read the numbers as well as anyone, so a line like that has to be for media consumption – i.e., you’re hoping that the tradmed will spin this as “Crist should run for a second term as governor.”

Maybe good ol’ Charlie has ruled it out. But if he doesn’t want to leave the GOP, he ought to be thinking about it.

If I had a dollar for every time…. Here are the December fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (November numbers are here):

Heavy spending by many of the committees leaves both sides with lighter wallets as of December 31st, but moreso for Democrats than Republicans. The DNC gets whooped yet again, and even the NRSC edges the DSCC. All three Dem committees paid down some debt, but the NRCC managed to wipe out all of the $2 million it owed. Feisty creditors, or expectations that good times are about to roll?

The 2010 primary season kicks off on Tuesday in Illinois. In 2008, the state moved its presidential primary to the new super-early “Super Tuesday,” and also moved its regular primaries, which used to be in March, up as well. They haven’t been moved back for the midterm elections, so Illinois gets play New Hampshire and host the “first-in-the-nation” primaries this year. (For a complete, sortable calendar of 2010 primaries, click here.) Below is a roundup of some of the key races to watch for:

• IL-Sen (D): Democrats have a three-way race to nominate a successor to Barack Obama (well, technically, to Roland Burris’s mausoleum). State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias leads in the polls, but his numbers are only in the 30s. It’s possible that a late surge by former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman (or, somewhat less likely, Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson) could up-end this race. Giannoulias is getting pounded for his family’s involvement in a failed bank – a particularly toxic piece of baggage in this environment. A recent Rasmussen poll had him up 31-23 over Hoffman (Jackson was back at 13), so an upset is within the realm of possibility.
• IL-Sen (R): The Republican contest is, sadly, much less interesting. “Moderate” Rep. Mark Kirk compiled a voting record over the years which ought to enrage any full-blooded teabagger, but he successfully pirouetted to his right during the primary. This seems to have kept real estate developer and wingnut Patrick Hughes from gaining any traction – polls show Kirk cruising. The real question at this point is whether Kirk’s rightward shift will come back to haunt him in the general.
• IL-Gov (D): Last summer, when state Comptroller Dan Hynes decided to challenge incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn in the primary, it seemed like a weird choice. Quinn had just ascended to office in the wake of Rod Blagojevich’s impeachment and seemed pretty popular. And as the year chugged along, polls kept showing Quinn with healthy leads. But Hynes turned the volume way up over the last couple of months, going sharply negative on Quinn on a range of issues, including crime. Now polls have the race a tossup, though Hynes is almost certainly peaking at the right time and could very well knock off a sitting governor. That’ll be one hell of a long lame-duck period. Ouch.
• IL-Gov (R): The GOP nomination is truly up for grabs – at least four guys probably have a legit shot at the nod (take a look at the crazy Pollster.com graph). Former state AG Jim Ryan was the early favorite, but he seemed to be relying heavily on name recognition. That’s given former state GOP chair Andy McKenna a chance to raise his profile via a massive TV ad campaign, and it looks like he may have the late mo’. Kirk Dillard and Billy Brady probably have a chance to sneak through as well.
• IL-08 (R): Six different Republicans are vying to challenge Dem Rep. Melissa Bean. Despite the seemingly favorable environment for GOPers, no one of any stature wound up getting into this race, probably because of how handily Bean dispatched well-funded opponents in both 2006 and 2008. With any luck, this won’t be a race to watch come November.
• IL-10 (D): Mark Kirk’s swingy suburban Chicago district is the only open seat in Illinois this cycle (so far), and it’s attracted a lot of interest on both sides. Marketing consultant Dan Seals, the Dem nominee in 2006 and 2008, has the edge in name rec, but he lost to Kirk twice, in back-to-back strong Dem cycles. Rep. Julie Hamos might therefore have an opening, if 10th District Dems want to give a new face a shot. In a possible sign of Seals fatigue, Hamos has outraised him 2-to-1 (a mil to about half a mil). Still, the only released poll of this race was a Seals internal which gave him a 50-point lead. Don’t scoff: He won his last primary, against the well-funded Jay Footlik, by about 60 points.
• IL-10 (R): The race to be the next Mark Kirk has come down to state Rep. Beth Coulson, businessman Bob Dold and another businessman, Dick Green. (I love that super-vague epithet, “businessman.”) Coulson’s moderate profile seemed to make her a good fit to inherit Kirk’s mantle, but Dold has raised a lot of money and seems to be exciting conservatives. Green has also spent a lot, but it’s mostly been his own campaign cash. There haven’t been any polls of this race, so to me the question is whether Coulson will get Scozzafava’ed, or will Green and Dold split the winger vote and let her escape? We’ll see soon enough.
• IL-11 (R): Iraq veteran Adam Kinzinger was annointed by the establishment early on as the favorite to take on freshmen Dem Rep. Debbie Halvorson, and that predictably means outsider conservatives have been gunning for him. Still, his opponents in the primary are a joke – Kinzinger’s raised some $400K, his nearest competitor, $1K. I’ll be curious about his final tally at the polls, though, just to see how warmly (or coldly) the teabaggers really do feel about him.
• IL-14 (R): The Republicans are hard at work smashing each other on the head in the battle to take on Dem Rep. Bill Foster. Foster, as you’ll recall, snatched this seat in a special election two years ago. It was held by none other than former Republican Speaker of the House Denny Haster, whose son Ethan is one of two contenders trying to win this district back for the GOP. The other is state Sen. Randy Hultgren, who is more or less running as “not-Hastert” (several other candidates dropped out in favor of Hultgren so that the anti-Hastert vote would not get split). The campaign has turned extremely nasty: Hultgren was recently forced to launch an apologetic robocall after he sent out a mailer accusing Hastert of supporting human trafficking. Dems are hoping for a repeat of 2008, where a vicious GOP primary ultimately helped Foster at the polls. (This year, though, there’s a lot more time for wounds to heal before the general.)

There are, of course, plenty of other primaries at all levels taking place in Illinois on Tuesday. If you know of any other interesting races, please let us know in comments.

How many bags could a teabagger bag if a teabagger could bag teabags?

Looks like we may get our huckleberry:

Monday, after Beau Biden dropped his bomb on local and national Democrats who had been convinced he would run, [New Castle County Executive Chris] Coons started fielding calls from party luminaries, including Vice President Joe Biden and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, coaxing him to enter the race. Coons’ mother called to say she saw his name on MSNBC as a potential Senate hopeful.

The charm and pressure offensive appears to be paying dividends for the party that suddenly found itself with no candidate to run against Castle, one of the most popular politicians in Delaware history.

“I’m leaning toward running,” Coons said Tuesday, adding that he would announce his decision by early next week. “This all emerged very quickly.”

Rasmussen also has a poll out (1/25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Mike Castle (R): 56

Chris Coons (D): 27

Other: 5

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4.5%)

This is a far cry from R2K’s test in October, which showed Coons trailing by a much smaller 51-39 margin. A PPP poll from all the way back in March of 2009 had Castle up 56-21 over Coons in a hypothetical House race matchup, but I’d like to see something a lot fresher before coming to any conclusions.

(Hat-tip to Taegan on the Coons story.)

YouGovPolimetrix just released a metric ton of senate polls. Be very, very warned, though: YouGov polls on the Internet. We’ve generally derided this methodology in the past (take a look at Zogby’s absurd “Interactive” polls), so consider this strictly for fun.

Arkansas

Lincoln (D-inc) 37%, Baker (R) 37%

Lincoln (D-inc) 39%, Hendren (R) 37%

Lincoln (D-inc) 38%, Coleman (R) 34%

Lincoln (D-inc) 37%, Cox (R) 36%

Colorado

Bennet (D-inc) 35%, Norton (R) 38%

Romanoff (D) 33%, Norton (R) 39%

Connecticut

Blumenthal (D) 47%, McMahon (R) 35%

Blumenthal (D) 47%, Simmons (R) 34%

Delaware

Biden (D) 37%, Castle (R) 49%

Florida

Meek (D) 34%, Crist (R) 36%

Meek (D) 33%, Rubio (R) 40%

Louisiana

Melancon (D) 32%, Vitter (R) 52%

Missouri

Carnahan (D) 43%, Blunt (R) 39%

Carnahan (D) 40%, Purgason (R) 34%

Nevada

41% Reid (D-inc), 42% Lowden (R)

43% Reid (D-inc), 41% Tarkanian (R)

North Dakota

29% Pomeroy (D), 56% Hoeven (R)

30% Heitkamp (D), 58% Hoeven (R)

Ohio

31% Fisher (D), 37% Portman (R)

31% Brunner (D), 39% Portman (R)

Pennsylvania

39% Specter (D-inc), 40% Toomey (R)

33% Sestak (D), 37% Toomey (R)

The leading Democrat in the Arizona gubernatorial race made it official the other day – rather quietly:

Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard on Friday formally became a candidate for Arizona governor, but he wasn’t talking publicly about it.

Goddard, who so far is unopposed for the Democratic nomination, filed official papers changing his exploratory committee to a campaign committee on Friday.

But there was no news conference to mark Goddard officially entering the race, and a campaign aide said he was not available to answer questions about dropping his exploratory status, the state’s budget crisis or other topics.

In a release sent out by Goddard’s committee to announce the filing, he said, “I will be making an announcement in the weeks to come.”

And Rasmussen has some numbers for us (general | primary) (1/20, likely voters, 11/18/09 in parens):

Terry Goddard (D): 43 (44)

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 41 (35)

Other: 7 (9)

Undecided: 9 (12)

Terry Goddard (D): 35 (40)

Dean Martin (R): 44 (38)

Other: 6 (11)

Undecided: 14 (1)

(MoE: ±3%)

Dean Martin (R): 31

Jan Brewer (R): 29

John Munger (R): 7

Vernon Parker (R): 5

Other: 8

Undecided: 20

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I’d like to see some other polls first before deciding whether Goddard truly has slipped, or if he’s just been Rasmussened. Meanwhile, the GOP primary fight looks interesting. The previous primary poll had Sherriff Joe Arpaio cleaning up, but he hasn’t given any indication that he actually wants to run, so he was dropped from this survey. That makes the trendlines hard to compare, though Brewer, who was at an abysmal 10% in the last poll, is looking a lot better with Arpaio gone.

We have a couple of special elections tonight, which SSP community members have already created diaries for. In MN, MinnesotaMike is covering a state Senate special election, while Oregon has a couple of tax-related measures on the ballot, which tietack is on top of. Check those links out for full coverage.

UPDATE: We’ve lost in Minnesota, where Mike says of the results: “Disapointing, but a 6.5 point loss is as close as a Dem has come to winning this seat in decades.”

On the plus side, the ballot measures in Oregon look like they are winning by pretty decent margins, with 79% of the vote tallied:

Measure 66

Yes: 55.3%

No: 44.7%

Measure 67

Yes: 54.6%

No: 45.4%

What do these measures do?

Measures 66 & 67 raise the $10 corporate minimum for the first time since 1931, and increase the marginal tax rate on the richest Oregonians (those who make more than $250,000 a year).

UPDATE: The Oregonian has called both measures – they both pass. More analysis here.

Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (1/16-20, likely voters, 12/2-8 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 34 (31)

Cheryle Jackson (D): 19 (17)

David Hoffman (D): 16 (9)

Other: 5 (8)

Undecided: 26 (35)

Mark Kirk (R): 47 (41)

Patrick Hughes (R): 8 (3)

Other: 10 (10)

Undecided: 35 (46)

(MoE: ±4%)

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (1/22-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 32

Cheryle Jackson (D): 18

David Hoffman (D): 20

Other: 3

Undecided: 27

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Mark Kirk (R): 42

Patrick Hughes (R): 9

Other: 11

Undecided: 39

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Remarkably similar numbers from both pollsters in both primaries. It looks like teabagger extraordinaire Patrick Hughes has failed to take much of a bite out of Kirk’s hide. The real question is whether Kirk’s successful rightward march to head off the likes of Hughes will damage him in the fall – or if he can pull of a charade of Scott Brownian proportions.

On the Dem side, Giannoulias seems to be in the pole position, but the Tribune, at least, seems to think Hoffman is showing some momentum. Time is pretty much out for anyone to make a move, though.

PPP also took a look at the gubernatorial primaries:

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 40

Dan Hynes (D): 41

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Kirk Dillard (R): 19

Andy McKenna (R): 17

Bill Brady (R): 16

Jim Ryan (R): 13

Adam Andrzejewski (R): 11

Other: 8

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.1%)

These numbers are also in line with the Tribune’s, though Hynes is doing just a hair better here. As for the Republican slate, several of the places are switched from where the Trib had them, but all of the players are still jostling inside a very tight band. Both races are too close to call – but we’ll know the answers on Tuesday.

And, as always, SSP will be liveblogging all of the Illinois primaries.

UPDATE: Rasmussen also just put out some numbers:

Andy McKenna (R): 20

Jim Ryan (R): 16

Kirk Dillard (R): 13

Bill Brady (R): 11

Adam Andrzejewski (R): 11

Other: 12

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Quinnipiac (1/20-24, registered voters, 10/12/09 – 10/18/09 in parens)

Charlie Crist (R): 44 (50)

Marco Rubio (R): 47 (35)

Undecided: 8 (12)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 36 (31)

Charlie Crist (R): 48 (51)

Undecided: 12 (14)

Kendrick Meek (D): 35 (36)

Marco Rubio (R): 44 (33)

Undecided: 19 (28)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Rasmussen had this race tied back in December, but Quinnipiac, I believe, is the first pollster to show Rubio with a lead. Cat fud, indeed.