Author: DavidNYC

Somewhat sucky news:

Less than three months after saying he would consider a run next year for attorney general of Texas, third-term U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, told the American-Statesman’s Danny Yadron on Wednesday that the AG option is no longer on his plate.

Asked if he was still mulling a run for attorney general, McCaul replied: “No, I’m running for re-election.”

This confirms an earlier statement from a McCaul spokesman. While it would have been nice to have an open seat here, Democrats fortunately have a good candidate in Jack McDonald, who has already raised over $300K and previously said he’d run no matter what McCaul decided. Indeed, the DCCC has already targeted McCaul, firing off a few radio ads over his vote against the stimulus.

And according to SSP’s analysis of the presidential vote, Barack Obama improved nicely over John Kerry’s numbers – McCain won the district 55-44, versus Bush’s 62-38 pounding. In a separate analysis of Texas demographics, Crisitunity observed that the 10th CD had the largest raw increase in Hispanic population from 2000 to 2006 of any district in the Houston or Dallas areas. That trend has doubtless continued, putting the GOP on ever-thinner ice.

McCaul, meanwhile, is far from entrenched – he won his last two elections with just 55% and 54% of the vote, running against underfunded opponents both times. I think this is going to be an interesting race.

Things just got ugly for Republican Jim Tedisco: The latest numbers from New York State show him picking up just 163 votes in his “stronghold” of Saratoga County, meaning that he still trails by 86 votes overall. Tedisco’s camp was hoping Saratoga would put him over the top, so this is a harsh blow – none of the remaining counties were as favorable to the Republican on election night as Saratoga.

Meanwhile, Dem Scott Murphy just got a very favorable ruling from a judge overseeing the case:

Judge James Brands just ruled that most of the over 1,200 contested absentee ballots in the race to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in Congress were objected to improperly based on discrepancies in their applications. This means many more ballots will be counted.

Tedisco’s team has been following the Norm Coleman playbook almost to the letter, challenging ridiculous numbers of absentee ballots (including, as you may know, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s). Seeing as Murphy’s attorneys argued in favor of counting many of these challenged ballots, this augurs well.

UPDATE: More discussion in BigDust’s diary.

This is becoming a disturbing pattern. First this:

When asked for his assessment of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s job performance, Democratic Senate candidate Kendrick Meek dodged the question, telling the St. Petersburg Times that “I haven’t yet reviewed his work.”

And now this:

Meek said he was unaware that Obama had pledged during his campaign to lift the limits on remittances put in place under President George W. Bush.

The first quote is just idiocy and a pathetic dodge – if Meek can’t go after Charlie Crist directly now, how does he expect to take him on if Crist gets into the Senate race? The second statement, meanwhile, is part of an embarrassing attempt to pander to the hardliner Cuban American establishment in Florida, and as this blog post details, it’s not going to get Meek anywhere.

But really, none of this ignorance, whether feigned or real, inspires much confidence.

Kudos to the DCCC for landing one of their first (very) big recruits of the 2010 cycle:

This morning, former Delaware Lieutenant Governor and Secretary of Finance John Carney filed an official Committee to run for Delaware’s lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Carney, a Claymont native and long time Wilmington resident who served two terms as Lieutenant Governor from 2001 through January of 2009, issued the following statement announcing his candidacy:

“With our economy in a recession and unemployment continuing to rise, our country and our state are facing unprecedented challenges. To address them, we need strong, experienced leaders who can rise above partisanship and bring people together to address these challenges. I’ll be that kind of leader in Congress – one who works with both Republicans and Democrats to move our country forward, starting with a focus on creating jobs and getting our economy back on track.”

Carney mentioned back in January that he was considering a run, but I wasn’t sure if he’d bite and didn’t expect an announcement so soon. Of course, this is great news for Team Blue, and it’s good to see that Carney realizes he needs an early start in order to beat longtime GOP Rep. Mike Castle.

Carney narrowly (and unexpectedly) lost last year’s gubernatorial primary to Jack Markell (who went on to cruise in the general), but apparently the two have a good relationship. Carney also won his last two campaigns for LG with 62% of the vote, which is exactly what Obama netted here. I’m sure Carney is looking at the model set by Delaware’s senior Senator, Tom Carper, who also took out a septuagenarian Republican incumbent in the Blue Hen State. It can definitely happen again.

(Hat-tip to reader CD.)

A key player in Florida changes his tune:

His approval ratings may be sky high, but if Charlie Crist runs for the U.S. Senate, he still could face a serious primary challenge from former state House Speaker Marco Rubio.

In an about-face, the conservative Miami Republican said Tuesday that Crist’s candidacy would not deter him from running if he decides to jump into the race. Rubio said that in 25 days he raised $250,000 for an exploratory campaign for the Senate and will make a decision within weeks.

“My decision, which I’ll announce shortly, will not be predicated on what anybody else does,” Rubio said in a phone interview from Washington, where he gave a speech and had meetings this week. He brushed off suggestions that he may run for attorney general, saying he’s passionate about federal issues.

Oh please, oh please, oh please….

Via a press release:

Josh Segall, the 2008 Democratic nominee for Congress in Alabama’s 3rd district, announced today that he will mount a campaign against Mike Rogers (R-Saks) in the 2010 Congressional election.

“It’s time for a new direction.  I am a fiscal conservative who will work to create and attract 21st Century jobs to east Alabama so that hardworking people can get ahead,” said Segall.

“Alabama is suffering under irresponsible policies that bail out greedy executives who created this mess and leave hardworking Alabama families holding the bag.  Rogers supported the Wall Street bailout, but did nothing for Main Street Alabama.   He voted to send Alabama jobs overseas, when what we needed was a plan to create good jobs at home.  It’s time to stand up to special interest politics and put Alabama families first once again,” said Segall.

Segall, as most folks here know, performed impressively last cycle: The DCCC didn’t target this race, and Segall was outspent 2-to-1, yet he still held incumbent GOPer Mike Rogers to a 54-46 margin. He also outperformed Obama, who lost the district 56-43 according to the Swing State Project’s analysis – though Obama actually did a bit better here than Kerry did.

PVI-wise, however, the district moved from R+4 to R+9, because Obama’s slight improvement on 2004 trailed his overall nationwide surge. But I think Alabama is a classic case that demonstrates the limits of something like the PVI. As we saw last cycle, Democrats retained AL-05 (R+12) and picked up AL-02 (R+16), showing that candidates with the right local appeal can wind up with very different results from the top of the ticket.

Segall got in relatively late last time – this cycle, with greater name rec and experience under his belt, he’ll have more time to raise money and campaign. Also, with Artur Davis out at the DCCC (background here), this race could wind up getting some national help. I’m looking forward to following this one.

Not terribly surprising, but good:

After a trial spanning nearly three months, Norm Coleman’s attempt to reverse Al Franken’s lead in the recount of the U.S. Senate election was soundly rejected today by a three-judge panel that dismissed the Republican’s lawsuit. …

“The overwhelming weight of the evidence indicates that the Nov. 4, 2008, election was conducted fairly, impartially and accurately,” the panel said in its unanimous decision.

Norm Coleman will probably pursue a hopeless, jerkassed appeal. But the only thing I have to say at this point is: Harry Reid, seat Al Franken.

Our friends at the Cook Political Report have released an updated Partisan Voting Index that now includes the results of the 2008 presidential election. They’ve also made a small change in the formula used to calculate PVIs, and I think it’ll be instantly recognizable to SSPers:

To determine the national average for these latest ratings, we have taken the average Democratic share of the two-party presidential vote for 2004 and 2008, which is roughly 51.3 percent, and that of Republicans, which is roughly 48.7 percent. So, if John Kerry captured 55 percent of the vote in a district and Barack Obama carried 57 percent in the district four years later, the district would have a PVI score of roughly D+5. (Emphasis added.)

As we discussed at length, the old PVI formula compared district-level results for the past two presidential elections to nationwide results for only the most recent election. This choice sparked plenty of debate, and some folks even suggested we use our own “SVI” that would compare 2004 to 2004 and 2008 to 2008.

Fortunately, the debate has been resolved. As you can discern from the description above (the key part is in bold), Cook has decided to revise its methodology along the lines proposed by people here. Charlie Cook (an SSP reader, as is House editor David Wasserman) told me he wanted something that was “totally apples and apples,” and I agree with the choice. Ultimately, this means that the new PVIs will be about two points bluer than under the old system – e.g., a district that would have been R+10 will now come in at R+8.

You can find the new PVIs by partisan rank in this PDF, as well as by member name and by state/district. There’s also a giant-size map and a cool chart showing trends in the PVI over the last decade. (As you’d expect, the number of “competitive” districts, at least on the presidential level, has been shrinking.) Have fun!

An interesting and in-depth look from Tampa Bay Online:

Florida Republican Party circles are hearing increasing talk of conservative dissatisfaction with Gov. Charlie Crist and a possible primary challenge if he runs for the U.S. Senate next year.

Crist’s high poll ratings, which muted such criticism early in his term, remain high, pollsters say, but are no longer preventing the talk.

Some conservatives, never happy with Crist’s emphasis on racial diversity, environmental regulation and populist willingness to take on big business, are now saying it openly.

“It’s the kind of disappointment that’s going to have people looking in other directions for leaders,” said former state Rep. Dennis Baxley of Ocala, now executive director of the Florida Christian Coalition. “The conservative movement needs a strong leader.”

The article confirms that the two most likely folks to take on Crist are former House speakers Marco Rubio and Alan Bense. While the poll numbers look daunting right now, I’d point out that long odds and self-defeating primaries are nothing new to the conservative movement. Incidentally, Pat Toomey had atrocious poll numbers just weeks before his 2004 primary with Arlen Specter; he lost by just two points and is now poised to spank Snarlin’ Arlen hard next year in their rematch. Oh, and Crist wouldn’t even be the incumbent. It’s doable.

Me, I’m like the dog: