Author: DavidNYC

Since the disaster year of 1994, very few House Democrats have failed to win re-election against Republicans. Below is what I think is a complete list of those who did. If I’m missing anyone, please let us know in comments.

Every Dem who lost in 2002 and 2004 except for Baron Hill was a victim of redistricting. For those with two districts listed, the second one is the seat they were running for after redistricting. (For Sandlin & Thurman, their district numbers didn’t change.) Note that I am not including Dems who lost in primaries to other Dems on this chart.

I must say, that’s a pretty darn good track record – only seven losses not attributable to redistricting through six election cycles. And I think only one of these incumbents (Mike Ward) was a freshman. (Update: Jay Johnson was also a freshman. — JL) What’s more, we’ve regained a lot of these seats (though some of the districts have changed since 2000): KY-03, WI-08, CT-02, and IN-09. Plus, Nick Lampson is back in a district that (TX-22) that partially overlaps his old one.

So what do you know about the names on this list? What lessons, if any, can be drawn from these few elections where Democratic House incumbents lost to Republicans?

Update (James): Looks like we missed one — David Phelps in IL-19.  Thanks to brittain33 in the comments for the catch.

Later Update (James): I added two more redistricting victims (Jim Maloney and Ronnie Shows), thanks to jeffmd in the comments.

The netroots have been pleading with national Democrats for years: If we want to revive the Democratic brand in areas that haven’t been receptive to us for some time, then we need to harken back to our roots and tap into the deep vein of economic populism that runs through this country’s proud history. Yet over the years, too many Dems – fearful of accusations of “class warfare” – have instead sought solace in DLC “third way” politics, alienating both their base and potential converts with a naked embrace of “free” trade, bankruptcy “reform,” and tax cuts for the very wealthiest.

A handful of standout elections in 2006, however, lend a lot of credence to the blogosphere’s view of things. In particular, Jon Tester and Jim Webb won impressive victories in red territory, in large part on the strength of their populist appeals. In a must-read op-ed that appeared in the WSJ shortly after election day, Webb offered a scathing assessment of the growing economic schism in this country, and declared that Congress’s first priority had to be working “to bring true fairness back to economic life.”

Travis Childers also understands that this is job number one. His platform is an unflinching defense of the needs of ordinary Americans. On the economy:

Our leaders should have been thinking of the economic problems we face today when they passed unfair trade deals that sent our jobs overseas, gave billions in subsidies to big oil companies, ignored the home mortgage crisis, and kept spending as the deficit and national debt hit all time highs.

The social safety net:

Travis will fight to protect Social Security , oppose privatization, and expand in-home care programs for seniors.

Healthcare:

Travis Childers will fight to improve the quality of healthcare, while lowering costs for working families.  He supports expanding the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (S-CHIP), which will provide affordable healthcare to tens of thousands of middle-income children in Mississippi.

And these aren’t just statements plastered up on an out-of-the-way website. Childers takes this kind of talk with him on the campaign trail:

“We need to quit depending on foreign oil,” said Childers, who is also Prentiss County’s chancery clerk. “We need to start depending on ourselves and explore alternative energy sources.”

…

“It seems like everyone in Washington is concerned about everything but working-class families,” he said. “I’m concerned about working-class families. I’m concerned about north Mississippians.”

Everywhere he goes:

“We need to strip away the subsidies from ExxonMobil and Big Oil,” Childers said to a question about high gasoline prices. “They’re not going to get a lot of sympathy from me.”

It’s regular folks who have his sympathy – and that’s why Travis Childers needs our help. But as with Iraq, a Childers victory can send a clear message: that running on a populist message works. At the same time, it will help drive a stake through the heart of stale, pernicious DLC-style politics. Childers can continue the line of victories that began with Tester and Webb and show Democrats that the way to bigger majorities this fall requires that we meaningfully address the concerns of average Americans.

As you saw up above at the beginning of this post, ActBlue has deployed a new fundraising thermometer to help us keep track of our goals. (The old-schoolers among us will remember the grand old days of the Dean bats.) And it shows a welcome sign: Because SSP readers dug deep, we hit our goal of $200 today. So let’s try for two more goals today: Let’s get to (at least) 40 total contributors, and let’s add on another $200.

This is money Travis Childers can really use – no strings attached, no costs in raising it, and no time wasted on the phone dialing for dollars. So let’s get him some of this good green!

You already know the basics: Travis Childers supports withdrawing our troops from Iraq in 12 to 18 months, a timeframe that every serious analyst acknowledges is safe and reasonable. Large majorities are in favor of withdrawal, so it’s especially heartening to see a Democrat in a red district embrace this stance. And it’s one of the many reasons we’re supporting him.

But a Childers win will reverberate far outside MS-01 when it comes to Iraq. Other potentially vulnerable Democrats in conservative areas will be able to look at this race and conclude that if Childers can succeed in an R+10 district running (at least in part) on Iraq withdrawal, they can, too.

This is crucial because Dems are planning to vote on withdrawal once again this year. I think we know Bush won’t budge, but DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen says nuts to that:

“There are some people who would say, ‘OK, why are you going through this exercise again, if the president is going to veto this?’ We have a responsibility to do everything we can to follow through on the changes we say we want made,” Van Hollen said. “I think it is a question of demonstrating where you stand, and what you will do, and continue to push to do, if you are elected in November.”

Van Hollen gets it – it’s about sending the right message. Childers can help send that message with his own vote, but just as importantly, he can also help make it a lot louder by giving fellow Democrats the courage to take the right stand on Iraq. Remember, only six Democrats hold seats as red or redder than MS-01. A Congressman Childers would offer a whole lot of Dems a whole lot of breathing room.

What’s more, I think Childers has figured out a devastatingly effective way to sell his position to voters:

He said he’s amazed more people on the campaign trail haven’t asked about a national debt of more than $9 trillion.

“We’re spending our money, folks, in Iraq. We need to be spending our money in America.

“We need to help young people get homes. We need to address the mortgage crisis.”

By linking withdrawal from Iraq with a populist appeal that addresses deep concerns about the economy, Childers knocks Republicans back on their heels with a one-two punch. This goes right at core GOP weaknesses, and I think it’s an approach that can play in many districts.

But all of this only matters, of course, if Childers gets elected – which is why we need to do everything we can to help him. Thanks to the generosity of the Swing State Project community, we’ve raised an impressive $1,300 so far. That puts us an even $1,000 away from original goal. But we really have very little time here. The election is only two weeks away, and money received by a campaign in the final week is more difficult to deploy strategically.

So I would really like to see us hit our target by Monday, May 5th. Can we add another $200 today? Let’s do it for Childers – and for our troops.

Update (James): Actblue seems to be have had a few server issues this morning, although things seem to be working fine now.  If you have trouble accessing our fundraising page, please try again a little bit later.

Why haven’t you given to Travis Childers yet?

We had a good haul yesterday in our efforts to “max out” to Travis Childers: twelve donations, $656 raised. That puts us about a quarter of the way toward our $2,300 goal.

What I’d like to see SSP do today is increase our number of donors by half – so, six more contributions by the end of the day. I usually prefer donor goals rather than dollar goals, but with the run-off less than three weeks away, it’s really the almighty dollar (rather than building up donor lists) that matters most.

But for today, at least, let’s focus on donations, not total amounts raised. After all, if Childers wins next month, he’ll still have a fierce race on his hands come November – and a big list of small donors will be invaluable. So please consider contributing today, no matter the size. The DCCC is stepping up, and so that means we need to put our money where are mouths are, too.

Update (Trent): Perhaps we underestimated y’all; we’ve already met today’s fundraising goal and it’s not even lunchtime. We’ve now raised over $900 from 18 folks; let’s try to make it to $1000 by day’s end. Every little bit helps get us closer to a Democratic majority in Mississippi’s congressional delegation (how sweet that would be!).

Update (Trent): Once again we’ve cleared the bar, having raised over $1000 for Travis Childers in little more than a day. Let’s all give ourselves a pat on the back, but we’ve got a ways to go before reaching our ultimate goal of $2300, the equivalent of one maxed-out contribution.

In addition to our sortable table-based calendar, we’ve now created a public Google calendar of key dates for the 2008 election – filing deadlines, primaries, run-offs, special elections, reporting deadlines, and the like. We’re parking it permanently at this URL. It’ll also be available in the “Resources” section of the right-hand sidebar.

If you use Google Calendar and want to automatically add these listings directly to your personal calendar, click here. (If that link doesn’t work, let us know.)

Here’s what our Google calendar looks like:

The interface is very intuitive. The only tip I’ll offer is that if you just want to see a straight list of upcoming events, click on the “Agenda” tab in the top right corner. If you see any mistakes, or if anything’s missing, please let us know in comments. All feedback is welcome.

The following states still have upcoming filing deadlines:

State	Deadline
Florida	5/2/2008
Georgia	5/2/2008
Michigan	5/13/2008
Nevada	5/16/2008
Connecticut	5/24/2008
Colorado	5/29/2008
Wyoming	5/30/2008
Alaska	6/2/2008
Massachusetts	6/3/2008
Arizona	6/4/2008
Oklahoma	6/4/2008
Washington	6/6/2008
Kansas	6/10/2008
New Hampshire	6/13/2008
Rhode Island	6/25/2008
Wisconsin	7/8/2008
Louisiana	7/11/2008
Minnesota	7/15/2008
New York	7/17/2008
Vermont	7/21/2008
Hawaii	7/22/2008
Delaware	7/25/2008

The thing is, at least on the federal level, there aren’t too many interesting seats left to fill. Also, it’s getting awfully late. Last cycle, almost every plausibly competitive challenger had filed by now. One of the few who did not, Dave Mejias in NY-03 on Long Island, gave Peter King his toughest re-election fight ever, but was hampered by his late start. Mejias didn’t get in until late May, but that was only because another candidate, David Denenberg, himself entered late and then dropped out just two days after announcing.

Disappointingly, NY-03 appears to be without a candidate deep into the season once more. I’d hate to give King a free ride. In any event, are there any other unfilled races in the states on this list that you think we might have any kind of shot at?

If you haven’t done so yet, be sure to check out the useful “Resources” section on the right-hand sidebar. Among other things, we’ve got a sortable filing date/congressional primary calendar, and a sortable table of presidential voting by congressional district. Good stuff!

Remember when John Boehner hollered at his fellow caucus-members to get off their “dead asses“? It looks like that necrotic Republican ass-flesh is staying firmly put:

Senior Republicans have ignored the impassioned plea of House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) that they help the party raise more money for the November election.

While the ranking Republicans of several committees have given tens of thousands of dollars to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), others have given nothing or very little.  

…

The appeal eventually moved Rep. Jim McCrery (La.), the senior Republican on the Ways and Means Committee. He gave $100,000 to the NRCC from his personal campaign account on the last day of March. He gave $500,000 in 2007.

But other ranking Republicans have not given anything since Boehner’s pep talk.

McCrery, of course, is retiring, so he doesn’t even need the money.

Anyhow, no matter that the exhortation came from Boehner, Tom Cole will almost inevitably take the blame for the NRCC’s shoddy performance, as well he should. But could misfortune eventually redound to Boehner as well? May the gods of schadenfreude smile upon us!