Some exciting news for the Swing State Project: We’d like to welcome aboard longtime community member The Caped Composer as a new contributing editor. We’ll let CC introduce herself in a post of her own, but for now I’ll just say that I know she’ll deliver the same top-notch horserace news and analysis that you’ve come to expect from SSP.
So please give Caped Composer a warm welcome!
12:03 am EST: 51% now recorded in MD-04, and Edwards is up 59-37. Gilchrest has fallen further behind, 41-35, with 55% in. Would be interesting to see two incumbents in the same state lose on the same night.
11:37 pm EST: MD-01 has tightened up, with Gilchrest behind 39-36 with about half the vote in. Edwards has a 22-point lead with around 40% of precincts reporting.
11:22 pm EST: 59-36 Edwards with 39% in.
11:16 pm EST: I almost forgot about Wayne Gilchrest’s primary in MD-01. Right now, he’s losing 42-31 with 23% of the vote in. Not looking good. A Gilchrest loss would drive the GOP ever further to the right.
11:08 pm EST: 58-38 Edwards with 31% in.
Follow the results here. With 11% reporting, Donna Edwards is up 55-42 over Al Wynn. Keep your fingers crossed.
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen gets a top-tier challenger:
Annette Taddeo, a Colombia-born business executive, told The Miami Herald Saturday she will challenge Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen for her seat in the U.S. Congress.
“I think voters are hungry for new leadership and they have a chance to change the Bush-Lehtinen approach, which has obviously failed us,” said Taddeo, 40. “I’m confident the voters will choose a new direction and that I will win.”
Taddeo’s decision also completes the Democrats’ South Florida trifecta:
Taddeo’s move adds the last piece to a high-stakes Democratic Party election-year strategy to unseat the three incumbent South Florida Republican Cuban-American lawmakers: Lincoln Diaz-Balart, his brother Mario and Ros-Lehtinen.
Raul Martinez, the former Hialeah mayor, announced his candidacy against Lincoln Diaz-Balart [FL-21] on Jan. 22; Joe Garcia, the Miami-Dade Democratic Party chairman and Cuban-American National Foundation member, announced his run against Mario Diaz-Balart [FL-25] last week.
This district is R+4.3, but Dems are banking on the voting habits of Cuban-Americans, particularly younger ones, shifting in our favor. And in fact, the registration trends are positive for us:
The largest bloc of district voters consists of Republicans, 126,152, down by more than 2,400 since the 2006 election. The number of registered Democrats has risen by more than 2,000 — from 105,400 two years ago. Unaffiliated voters have increased by more than 1,400 to 73,681.
SSP’s James Hell has been closely following developments in these races, and I know that Markos of DailyKos is also keenly interested in them. So expect plenty of blogospheric attention to this corner of the country.
Saying he never intended to be a professional politician, Rep. John Shadegg announced Monday that he will not seek re-election to an eighth term in Congress.
Just weeks ago, Shadegg spoke confidently about his ability to win another term from the 3rd Congressional District, and he had raised nearly $500,000 for re-election in the fourth quarter.
On Monday, however, he said his decision was a personal one and was not spurred by concerns over his health or fear that he could lose his seat in November.
“I’ve been thinking about this for a number of months, though I’ve held it close to my vest,” Shadegg, 58, told The Republic on Monday. “I’ve just reached the conclusion I’d like to do something else with my life other than be in the minority in the U.S. House of Representatives.” (Emphasis added.)
I love it when they finally admit the truth. And Shadegg’s reason for bailing applies equally for every GOP member of Congress. In other words, I doubt he’ll be the last to retire.
This district has a PVI of R+5.9. Tough sledding, but we have a strong candidate in Bob Lord, who has already raised over $600K and still has half-a-mil on hand. And with any luck, we’ll see a bloody GOP primary. The AZ Republic says:
As of Monday night, no Republican challenger had stepped up, but several names have been mentioned, including: Shadegg chief of staff Sean Noble, Arizona House Speaker Jim Weiers, state Sen. Jim Waring, Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes and Scottsdale attorney Jordan Rose.
Arizona’s primary is very late – not until Sept. 2nd. So a drawn-out fight could put the GOP at a big disadvantage.
P.S. Caped Composer caught this one right away when it broke.
UPDATE: Local Dems are rallying around Lord:
Emily Bittner, communications director for the Arizona Democratic Party, said the party would support Lord over other Democrats.
“The party is strongly behind Bob Lord,” said Maria Weeg, executive director of the party.
On top of that, Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon (D) said he would not run, and 2006 Senate candidate Jim Pederson (whose name was also in the mix) has now endorsed Lord.
Republican Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia announced that he will not seek reelection, issuing a release announcing his retirement this afternoon.
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Davis’ Northern Virginia district has been trending in a Democratic direction over the past decades, and offers Democrats a good opportunity to pick up the seat. Already Fairfax County Board of Supervisors chairman Gerry Connolly (D) has formed an exploratory committee, and has high name identification in the district.
Former Rep. Leslie Byrne and retired Naval officer Doug Denneny have also announced their candidacies on the Democratic side.
Businessman Keith Fimian is a leading candidate on the Republican side; he has already raised over $350,000 in individual donation over the past six months.
(Thanks to long-time SSPer Caped Composer for the catch.)
Some people are just born with perfect political names. John Courage. Charlie Justice. Jon Powers.
And then there’s Dick Swett.
If you thought the Swing State Project was above this sort of thing, you were sadly wrong. But seeing as the two most popular TV shows among this site’s readers are The Simpsons and Family Guy, I’m not worried.
And man, there are some great names running this year. An early favorite is down in TX-22, where you’ve got Mayor John Manlove. (Not joking.) Out in NJ-07, there’s Deputy Mayor Chris Venis. (Cue Beavis.) I know there are more out there.
So, tell us, what are your favorite political names? They can be ridiculous or awesome. And they don’t just have to be from this cycle – any point in history, from any English-speaking country, will work. Come on people, make me smile!
Back in May, former Hamilton County Commissioner Phil Heimlich (yes, from that Heimlich family, hence the awful pun in the headline) said he’d run against Evel Knievel Mean Jean Schmidt in the OH-02 Republican primary.
Democrats rejoiced at the thought of a bloody internecine war – and then rejoiced again last month when yet another GOPer, state Rep. Todd Brinkman, also jumped into the fray. What better way to ensure Schmidty’s survival than a fractured, multi-way primary?
On Wednesday, though, Heimlich bitterly acknowledged this possibility and decided to bail for his own warped version of the greater good:
“Mr. Brinkman’s candidacy serves no purpose other than to assure Rep. Schmidt’s renomination,” Heimlich said in the news release. “There is no reason to put the Republican Party through a tough primary battle when victory isn’t possible.”
However, I’m not so sure this is necessarily a bad development. Heimlich had actually out-raised Schmidt and conceivably could have chalked up a narrow plurality win with a third candidate in the race, assuming the anti-Schmidt vote were big enough to drive the incumbent below, say, 40%.
But Brinkman now has to win outright, and he’s only been in the game for six weeks. What’s more, Ohio has one of the earliest primaries in the country – it’s fast approaching on March 4th. Whereas Heimlich had been campaigning for the better part of a year, Brinkman will have less than three months to attempt his coup.
Sure, it’s conceivable that the local establishment will rally behind Brinkman in the short time left, but what we’ve seen so far suggests it’s not likely. The same Enquirer article notes:
Friday night, the Hamilton County Republican Party’s executive committee passed over two Hamilton County Republicans – Heimlich and Brinkman – to endorse Schmidt, of Clermont County. Schmidt was the favorite of 69 members, while Heimlich had 33 votes and Brinkman, five.
If the GOP powers-that-be (at least in Hamilton County, one of seven that make up the district) were going to pick an anti-Schmidt, they’d probably already have done so.
Given that Schmidt took under 48% in her hotly-contested primary in 2006, I won’t rule anything out. But Brinkman will have to move fast and raise a lot of money to out-hustle Schmidt. Like her sartorial idol Mr. Knievel, Mean Jean has already defied (political) death more than a few times. She may have another jump in her still.
Which GOP crumb-bum is going to strap on the golden parachute next?
UPDATE (James Hell): Ding ding ding! It’s Dave Weldon! (FL-15, R+4.1):
Rep. Dave Weldon (R-Fla.) announced Friday that he will retire from Congress at the end of this session, citing a desire to return to his medical practice.
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Weldon, 54, is a seven-term lawmaker who sits on the House Appropriations Committee.
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President Bush won Weldon’s district in 2004 with 57 percent of the vote, compared to 43 percent for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.).
P.S. (David): Dan Maffei added to DCCC’s Red-to-Blue list. I’m very glad to see this.
We forgot to do this last week, so here are two weeks’ worth of great diaries:
It’s that time of week.
The Dems and the Repubs have made their choices:
Jon Elrod’s reputation as a hard worker with a track record of winning elections in districts that favor Democrats earned him the Republican nomination to fill the 7th Congressional District seat Sunday.
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His opponent in the March 11 special election is Andre Carson, whom Democrats selected Saturday to run for the seat held by his grandmother, Julia Carson, until her death last month.
Both decisions were made by party committees, not by the public. The GOP probably got their strongest candidate (relatively speaking), while we wound up with just about our weakest. I’m not thrilled. One diarist at Blue Indiana is even less happy. And CQ rates this seat – which is D+8.7 – at just “Lean Dem.”
Note, though, that the special election, which is on March 11th, is not on the same day as the primary for the November general. The primary will be held as previously scheduled on May 6th. That means that whether Carson wins or loses the special, he might not be our nominee this fall. (Elrod, on the other hand, is unopposed in the GOP primary.)
I hate to be a wet blanket, but recent history in this district – plus the only known poll on the race – doesn’t make me sanguine. I just hope we don’t wind up with another MA-05 on our hands – or worse.