SSP Daily Digest: 8/26

FL-Sen: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen says she won’t endorse in the GOP Senate primary or in the general election, out of deference to Kendrick Meek. Says IRL: “Kendrick was a gentleman and I’m a lady back to him,” because he didn’t lift a finger to help Annette Taddeo last year, “despite all the nasty bloggers egging him on.” Next time, we’ll just have to egg harder. (D)

Meanwhile, in the contest purely in Charlie Crist‘s mind over who to appoint to replace Mel Martinez, Crist will reportedly name someone by week’s end from his not-so-short list of eight or so names.

OR-Sen: John Frohnmayer, the former head of the National Endowment for the Arts under Bush I, was reportedly considering a bid for the Senate against Ron Wyden, but has now decided against it. (You may remember Frohnmayer had tried running as an Indie in the 2006 Smith/Merkley Senate race, but decided against that too.) Interestingly, the story makes it completely unclear whether he was planning to run as a Democrat or an Independent (probably not as a Republican, despite that he’s from one of the state’s brand-name GOP families, considering that the once-dominant moderates have been routed from the state party), but it sounded like he’d be going after the usually-liberal Wyden from the left, as he’d been reaching out to Democratic activists upset over Wyden’s foot-dragging on health care reform. No GOPer has stepped forward to take on Wyden from the right.

NJ-Gov: One more wheel popped off the suddenly overloaded Chris Christie bus: the woman who allegedly received the undisclosed loan from Christie while working for him has resigned. Michele Brown was the acting first assistant U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, but she quit yesterday, saying she didn’t want to be a distraction for the campaign.

NY-Gov: Politico’s Alex Isenstadt offers a rebuttal to the NYT’s speculations that Rudy Giuliani is prepping for a gubernatorial run. Close associates say that while he’s not saying no, he isn’t fundraising either, and that his bids for attention may have more to do with paying down campaign debts from his epic presidential fail.

SC-Gov: Two Republican state Reps, Nathan Ballentine (known as a Mark Sanford ally) and Gerry Simrill met privately with Sanford to let him know that if he doesn’t step down, the GOP-held legislature will impeach him. (Sanford told them he’s staying.) Also, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer publicly called for Sanford to resign today (and, by the way, give him his job). Bauer said he’d drop his 2010 gubernatorial bid if he were to become governor, though.

TX-Gov: It looks like there’ll be an alternative to Bush-backer Tom Schieffer and weirdo self-promoter Kinky Friedman in the Democratic primary after all: Hank Gilbert, a cattle rancher who lost the 2006 Agriculture Commissioner race (although he did do the best of any Dem statewide candidate that year), says he’ll run. Burnt Orange Report sounds very pleased. Meanwhile, Kay Bailey Hutchison faced down a truckload of pigs brought to one of her rallies by snout-wearing pro-Rick Perry, anti-pork activists. KBH is also looking to sell her mansion in McLean, Virginia, a tea leaf that a) she’s serious about bailing out of the Senate and b) she needs money.

WI-Gov: There’s already a Republican internal poll from the Scott Walker camp done by the Tarrance Group, reflecting the new post-Jim Doyle configuration of the Wisconsin governor’s race. As one might expect from a Walker poll, he leads all comers, although the Milwaukee Co. Exec barely beats Milwaukee mayor and ex-Rep. Tom Barrett, 44-43. Walker posts bigger numbers over Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, 48-40 and Rep. Ron Kind, 49-39, and an even-bigger number against GOP primary rival ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, 57-21. Barrett leads a Dem primary over Lawton and Kind, 39-25-19 (only Lawton has committed to the race so far, though).

NYC-Mayor: The mayor’s race in New York seems to be in a holding pattern, with I/R incumbent Michael Bloomberg beating Democratic Comptroller William Thompson, 50-35, not much change from last month’s 47-37 spread. Thompson leads city councilor Tony Avella 45-10 in the primary. Further down the ballot, it looks like Air America head Mark Green is poised for a comeback as Public Advocate (a job he held 1994-2001), with 38% in a 4-way Dem primary field.

Ads: The DNC has launched a series of radio ads providing cover for 13 potentially vulnerable Dems, regarding their earlier stimulus and SCHIP votes: Berry, Himes, Donnelly, Kissell, Teague, Rodriguez, Perriello, Ross, Hill, Etheridge, Brad Miller, Pat Murphy, and Inslee. (OK, those last four don’t seem vulnerable at all, but whatever.) Also, a coalition of MoveOn, Americans United for Change, the Sierra Club, and the League of Conservation Voters launched TV spots against 5 Republicans over cap-and-trade: McCotter, Rehberg, Blunt, Wolf, and Cantor… and print ads against 2 Dems who also were ‘no’ votes: Jason Altmire in the Pittsburgh suburbs and Ann Kirkpatrick in rural Arizona.

FL-18: Ileana Rushes Recycled Ad Into Rotation

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen’s “new” ad looks like it was cobbled together from vintage footage shot in the 1980s… in Cuba:

Why is Ileana rushing a recycled ad on to the air? For one, she was completely caught off-guard by Annette Taddeo getting up on TV first, with a positive bio ad followed by a hit tying IRL to Bush. But far more embarrassing is this: Ileana just got (by her own admission) an awful new haircut. It’s so bad that apparently she won’t film new footage until it grows out. With any luck, that’ll be after Nov. 4th.

This takes “vanity campaign” to a whole ‘nother level.

FL-18: Ros-Lehtinen Leading Taddeo in New Poll

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/23-25, likely voters, no trendlines):

Annette Taddeo (D): 36

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 10

(MoE: 5%)

Difficult numbers for Taddeo, but the only other public poll (by Bendixen & Associates) showed her 27 points back in July, so this is certainly a good bit better. As is often the case with first-time candidates who haven’t yet hit the airwaves, Taddeo is still unknown by a sizable chunk of the populace (30%), so she has room to grow. (And the good news is that she just went up on the air a few days ago, with both English and Spanish TV and radio ads.) Ros-Lehtinen, meanwhile, has only a so-so 49-37 approval rating.

The biggest question mark about this poll is the sample. It’s 62% white and 31% Hispanic. While census data is often quite different from voter turnout data, this district is just 28% Anglo (ie, non-Hispanic whites). It’s possible that some Hispanics (especially Cubans, I’m told) do indeed self-identify as white, so that might be part of the explanation.

This is actually a rather thorny issue in a district like this. A knowledgeable source tells me that a more likely turnout model would be 52% Hispanic and 40% white – and that it’s also crucial for pollsters to filter respondents on a more fine-grained level. That’s because Cuban vs. non-Cuban Hispanics have very different voting patterns in South Florida (the former are far more pro-GOP). The proper way to go about this is to ask the people you call about their (or their ancestors’) country of origin, and it’s not clear whether R2K did this.

Regardless, Hispanic and white performance in this poll was pretty similar. Annette Taddeo definitely has her work cut out for her. But remember – R2K did a poll almost exactly two years ago which showed Paul Hodes down by 25 points, so this race is definitely far from over.

FL-18 – Ties That Bind

(Cross-Posted at MyDD, Open Left, and Daily Kos)

This weekend, we saw once more that no matter what happens in Iraq, there is no end in sight to this war unless we demand it.

For the people of Congressional District 18 in South Florida, getting out of the war in Iraq is a top priority.

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www.voteTaddeo.com

For years, George Bush and his cronies – like my opponent, Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen – said that American troops would redeploy from Iraq when the Iraqi people asked us to.  Last Saturday, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki asked us to leave.

The out-of-touch Washington Republicans responded strangely, with George Bush speaking of “time horizons.” John McCain flip-flopped on his original position, and said that he knew better than Iraq’s democratically elected prime minister what the Iraqi people really wanted.

Bush-Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, my opponent, says nothing. Her silence is deafening.  For years, she has rubber-stamped President Bush’s failed Iraq war strategy unquestioningly.  Now she stays quiet, and doesn’t even mention Iraq on her website.

Ros-Lehtinen and President Bush

W’s Brother, Jeb Bush, was Ros-Lehtinen’s first campaign manager – in 1989

Ros-Lehtinen’s incumbency allows her to be the ranking member of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.  From that position, she forces her right-wing agenda into every element of our country’s foreign policy.

Ros-Lehtinen Uses Her Voice to Silence Other Women Who Need Help

Ros-Lehtinen is a leading proponent of the global gag rule, which denies millions of women at home and around the world access to life-saving affordable health care and sex education they require.

On the Foreign Affairs Committee, Ros-Lehtinen is the senior disciple of the Bush Doctrine of senseless, pre-emptive war in Congress.  She remains smug and unrepentant for her lockstep support of the war.

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Annette at the Democracy for America-Miami Memorial Day Service

I believe it is time for Iraqis to take responsibility for the security of Iraq and to bring our troops home. The war in Iraq is costing American taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars a day. That is money we desperately need here at home to invest in our schools, bring down health care costs, protect Social Security, and work towards energy independence. I will stand up for these priorities in Congress.

We can end this war. I am proud to be a Democrat, and I am proud to endorse the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq. After years of a mis-guided war, Democrats must lead the way.

Ros-Lehtinen rubber-stamps Bush’s Iraq policy every step of the way, and she joins McCain in wanting a war in Iraq without end. I attended Netroots Nation last weekend, and I felt the real desire for change across the country.  Change is more than a cliché in 2008.  It’s obvious that our country is going in the wrong direction, and that more of the same is not enough to put our nation back on the right track.

I’ve out-raised Ros-Lehtinen in the first two quarters, and my district is the most Democratic and most progressive of the three  seats at play in South Florida.  I am honored by the great support I’ve received from my community, and also from the Netroots.  I am honored to have been endorsed by Democracy for America and, as of yesterday, Blue America

After seven years of failed policies, we are in a recession, health care costs are rising, and we are in a war without end. I know America needs a new beginning. We need greater investment in renewable energy, an end to subsidies for the big oil companies, and affordable health care for children and seniors.

I am a successful small-business owner, and I have a business plan to win this campaign.  We are focused and disciplined, and I will defeat Ros-Lehtinen this November.

I ask for your continued support as I take on a 18-year incumbent with a long record of voting against families and against our men and women in uniform.

Thank you, and I welcome any questions and comments,

Annette Taddeo

How They Repay Us

Mario Diaz-Balart, attacking SCHIP:

In a flame-fanning tirade on Spanish-language radio last week, Díaz-Balart called the tax hike [to pay for SCHIP] an “attack on the Cuban-American community.” He added: “It would hurt an industry specifically in Miami-Dade, in South Florida, an industry that is almost entirely Hispanic: those who make cigars by hand, which is a cultural tradition. That industry will not survive.”

Lincoln Diaz-Balart, disrupting Tom Lantos’s memorial service:

The House had a meltdown today in the middle of the memorial service for the late Rep. Tom Lantos, a Holocaust survivor who was chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. The service, in the Capitol’s historic Statuary Hall, was disrupted when a Republican House member unexpectedly called for a procedural vote.

And that’s when all hell broke loose.

House Democrats were furious, charging the procedural motion was disrespectful. “Very bad taste, very” as one senior House Democratic aide put it.

Republicans were apparently worried that Democrats were about to force debate on contempt-of-Congress citations against White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten and former White House counsel Harriet Miers. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) is the member who hit the panic button, so to speak, and called the procedural vote. His real purpose in calling the procedural motion was to protest the lack of a vote on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act – before the contempt debate started.

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, grandstanding about that stupid Petraeus ad:

The chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., said the ad “is outrageous and it is deplorable” and called upon her “colleagues on both sides of the aisle” to condemn the ad and, somewhat inexplicably, to apologize to the general for the impugning of his integrity.

Democrats everywhere know that we don’t need people like this in Congress. It goes without saying that the DCCC leadership should realize this, too.

Enough Good Things

So sayeth Debbie Dubya:

“I can’t say enough good things about Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.”

I wonder, exactly, what sort of good things Debbie Wasserman Schultz can’t say enough of about her BFF, Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Perhaps it was Ileana’s vote to repeal the estate tax? Hmm, Debbie voted no on that one.

Ileana’s vote to approve weak fuel efficiency standards for cars? Nope, Debbie voted in favor of stricter rules.

How about drilling in the Arctic Wildlife Refuge? Debbie certainly doesn’t support that – but Ileana does.

I know that Debbie voted against making the PATRIOT Act permanent. I just checked, though, and Ileana voted in favor of it.

Now, what about CAFTA? Maybe Debbie approves of Ileana’s support for the bill? Naw, Debbie gave a thumbs-down there.

Alright, alright, let’s see. The House had a big vote on the McGovern bill last year, authorizing withdrawal of our troops from Iraq. Debbie was in favor… Ileana, not so much.

Maybe the Military Commissions Act – you know, the bill which eviscerated habeas corpus rights? Debbie said ixnay. Ileana? All for it.

I’ve got it. Warantless wiretapping – that’s the ticket. Debbie sensibly said “no” when this bill came up in the House last summer. Ileana… oops, she voted for it.

Okay, this is an easy one. What reasonable person opposes stem cell research? Not Debbie, of course. And surely not Ileana, right? Sorry to disappoint – she thinks that blastocysts = human lives.

Man, I’m almost out of ideas, but I still have one more. Debbie obviously voted in favor of SCHIP – only the worst crumb-bums could possibly be so heartless as to deny healthcare to kids. But damn, wouldn’t you know it – Ileana is indeed exactly that sort of crumb-bum.

On the major issues of the day, these women are far, far apart. Debbie, to her credit, strikes a strong progressive stance. Yet Ileana, despite her allegedly “moderate” image, stands with the worst of the GOP in supporting endless war in Iraq, and continued environmental degradation while opposing stem-cell research and healthcare for kids.

It seems to me that saying even one good thing about Ileana Ros-Lehtinen would be more than enough, yet Debbie Wasserman Schultz just can’t get her fill. It’s clear to any rational outside observer that Ros-Lehtinen stands in the way of progressive change, and that Annette Taddeo’s candidacy is our best shot at removing that roadblock we’ve had in a long time. Why can’t Debbie Dubya see that?

FL-18: Annette Taddeo Makes It Three-for-Three in South Florida

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen gets a top-tier challenger:

Annette Taddeo, a Colombia-born business executive, told The Miami Herald Saturday she will challenge Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen for her seat in the U.S. Congress.

“I think voters are hungry for new leadership and they have a chance to change the Bush-Lehtinen approach, which has obviously failed us,” said Taddeo, 40. “I’m confident the voters will choose a new direction and that I will win.”

Taddeo’s decision also completes the Democrats’ South Florida trifecta:

Taddeo’s move adds the last piece to a high-stakes Democratic Party election-year strategy to unseat the three incumbent South Florida Republican Cuban-American lawmakers: Lincoln Diaz-Balart, his brother Mario and Ros-Lehtinen.

Raul Martinez, the former Hialeah mayor, announced his candidacy against Lincoln Diaz-Balart [FL-21] on Jan. 22; Joe Garcia, the Miami-Dade Democratic Party chairman and Cuban-American National Foundation member, announced his run against Mario Diaz-Balart [FL-25] last week.

This district is R+4.3, but Dems are banking on the voting habits of Cuban-Americans, particularly younger ones, shifting in our favor. And in fact, the registration trends are positive for us:

The largest bloc of district voters consists of Republicans, 126,152, down by more than 2,400 since the 2006 election. The number of registered Democrats has risen by more than 2,000 — from 105,400 two years ago. Unaffiliated voters have increased by more than 1,400 to 73,681.

SSP’s James Hell has been closely following developments in these races, and I know that Markos of DailyKos is also keenly interested in them. So expect plenty of blogospheric attention to this corner of the country.