Author: Johnny Longtorso

Sorry folks, I’m sick to death of New York. Here’s a Republican map of Indiana:

The plan here was to eliminate Donnelly and Hill, while conceding IN-08 to Ellsworth. Here’s the breakdown:

IN-01 (blue, Pete Visclosky – D) – Took LaPorte County form neighboring IN-02 and dropped the Republican-leaning counties in the south of the district. Easily went for Obama by about a 2-1 margin.

IN-02 (green, Joe Donnelly – D) – Shifted the district east; basically the only old parts are St. Joseph County and Elkhart. Went from 54-45 Obama to about 51-48 McCain. Donnelly might have a shot at holding this one, but it would be much tougher.

IN-03 (purple, Mark Souder – R) – Remains centered in Fort Wayne, but the rest of the district goes south now. Formerly a 56-43 McCain district; my rough estimate is about a 55-44 McCain margin now.

IN-04 (red, Steve Buyer – R) – Shifts from the Indianapolis suburbs to the north central part of the state, but I scooped out about half of Tippecanoe County to compensate for losing those Republican suburbs. Another formerly 56-43 McCain district, I’m guessing it’s about the same now, maybe a point less Republican.

IN-05 (yellow, Dan Burton – R) – Shrinks down to mostly the northern Indy suburbs, although I did add in part of the aforementioned Tippecanoe. Was 59-40 McCain, I’d say the margin’s more like 57-42 now.

IN-06 (teal, Mike Pence – R) – Stretchy! Instead of comprising the mid-eastern part of the state, it goes from Muncie, around the outskirts of the Indy area, up to the northwest end of the state. Was 53-46 McCain, actually I think it’s a little more Republican now, around 55-44 McCain.

IN-07 (grey, Andre Carson – D) – Pretty much unchanged, although slightly bigger, easily high-60s for Obama.

IN-08 (light purple, Brad Ellsworth – D) – Interestingly-shaped to remove Bloomington from IN-09, this one now includes pretty much all the Dem-friendly territory in the southwest of the state. Formerly 51-47 McCain, this flips to around 53-46 Obama.

IN-09 (light blue, Baron Hill – D) – Loses Baron’s most favorable territory and adds in some Republican parts on the west and northeast sides. Was 50-49 McCain, now a whopping 58-41 McCain.

Virginia, along with four other states (Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, and West Virginia), will have no statewide elections on the ballot in 2010, which will leave it up to the candidates for House of Representatives to turn out voters. In fact, I’m pretty sure the only other race on the ballot in the state will be the Virginia Beach City Council and School Board (unlike most cities, who have municipal elections in the spring, Virginia Beach moved theirs to November last year), barring an unforeseen special election occurring next year. That said, I thought I’d take an early look at how these House races are shaping up.

1st Congressional District

Incumbent: Rob Wittman (Republican elected in 2007)

2008 Result: Rob Wittman 56.6%, Bill Day 41.8%

Wittman won easily in a 2007 special election to follow the late Jo Ann Davis, and had a comfortable victory last year in a district that went for McCain by 4%. Democrats had trouble fielding a candidate, with the original nominee, Dr. Keith Hummel, dropping out at the end of July after it was discovered he failed to disclose past financial problems. Democrats picked Bill Day, who previously had run for the House of Delegates in Prince William County, as a replacement in early August, and he performed respectably considering he had three months to put together a campaign.

This cycle, Wittman has not one but two Democratic opponents, software programmer Krystal Ball and a retired Army officer, Col. Scott Robinson. Robinson is striking a more centrist tone while Ball is running as an outspoken progressive, which puts Democrats in a bind, having to choose between a candidate that is more electable but who may not fire up the base, or a more liberal alternative who may have trouble appealing to swing voters.

Wittman had a huge fundraising advantage in 2008, raising $1 million compared to Day’s $217k. This cycle so far, his advantage is less pronounced: as of the third quarter, Wittman has raised $444k with $298k on hand, while Ball has raised $303k with $206k on hand, and Robinson has raised $173k with $139k on hand.

Given that this is a Republican district and Wittman is running in a good Republican year, he has obvious structural advantages, but given two potentially strong challengers, it’s still a Race to Watch.

2nd Congressional District

Incumbent: Glenn Nye (Democrat elected in 2008)

2008 Result: Glenn Nye 52.4%, Thelma Drake 47.5%

Thanks to Obama’s coattails (he won the district by 2%, with a vote total of about 400 more than Nye), Nye was able to defeat two-term Bush loyalist Thelma Drake. Nye has been following a mostly centrist path, voting with Democrats on social issues such as Lily Ledbetter, the Matthew Shepard Act, and opposing the Stupak amendment, but voting against major Democratic proposals like ACES and health care reform. Nye’s breaking with the party line on these issues has caused a lot of resentment among the Democratic base in the district, creating speculation about a primary challenge from the left.

Not only does Nye have to worry about the left, he’s got plenty of competition from the right, as well. Five Republicans have already jumped in the race to oppose Nye next year; the top two are car dealership magnate Scott Rigell and entrepreneur Ben Loyola, both of which have the ability to self-fund. Other Republicans in the race are former Virginia Beach Republican Party chair Chuck Smith, and ex-Navy SEALs Scott Taylor (who ran for mayor in 2008 as well) and Ed Maulbeck.

One wildcard in the race is conservative Glenn Beck 912er Doug Hutchison, the third former Navy SEAL in this race. Hutchison is running as an independent, which could siphon votes off from the Republican nominee.

As far as fundraising goes, Nye has raised $900k with $726k on hand as of the third quarter, while Scott Taylor has raised $453k with $412k on hand (half of which was from his own pocket), and Ben Loyola has raised $548k with $537k on hand, almost all of which was from self-funding. The other candidates have not raised an appreciable amount.

Nye is going to have a tough time striking a path that is moderate enough not to alienate independents while keeping the Democratic base happy, making this race a Tossup.

3rd Congressional District

Incumbent: Bobby Scott (Democrat elected in 1992)

2008 Result: Bobby Scott was unopposed

Bobby Scott has represented the 3rd district ever since it was redrawn to be majority-black following the 1990 census, and hasn’t had a serious Republican challenger in his career. The closest election he’s faced was in 2004, when he defeated Winsome Sears, an African-American Republican who served one term in the House of Delegates, by a 69-31 margin. In five of his nine elections to the House, he has faced no Republican. This year, Coby Dillard, a Navy vet who worked for Bob McDonnell’s gubernatorial campaign, is exploring a run. It’s unlikely he’ll make this race anywhere near close, regardless of how badly things go for the Democrats next year — Obama pulled in 76% here in 2008, and Creigh Deeds still managed to win this district with 65% despite getting crushed statewide. This seat will remain Safe Democratic.

4th Congressional District

Incumbent: Randy Forbes (Republican elected in 2001)

2008 Result: Randy Forbes 59.5%, Andrea Miller 40.4%

Forbes narrowly won a special election to replace the late Norm Sisisky in 2001, defeating State Sen. Louise Lucas by a 52-48 margin. Following that, Republicans cut heavily-Democratic Portsmouth out of the district and Forbes has been safe ever since, facing Democrats only two times out of his four re-election contests. The best time to take on Forbes would have been 2008: Barack Obama narrowly carried this district by about 1.5%, and Forbes was held to a 60-40 margin over Andrea Miller, who barely raised any money. This has left Forbes’ campaign coffers nearly empty; this cycle, he’s raised $215k with $161k on hand. Unfortunately, without Barack Obama on the ticket to drive black turnout in the district, and a lack of a Democratic bench, it’s unlikely that Forbes will face a strong challenge this year, so this will be Safe Republican.

5th Congressional District

Incumbent: Tom Perriello (Democrat elected in 2008)

2008 Result: Tom Perriello 50.1%, Virgil Goode 49.9%

Perriello scored the biggest 2008 upset in Virginia, toppling six-term incumbent Virgil Goode by a 727 vote margin even as John McCain carried the district by 2%. Perriello has not struck the cautious, centrist tone that Glenn Nye has, voting in favor of most major Democratic initiatives, although he has taken a few votes, such as opposing the new tobacco regulations and voting for the Stupak amendment, that concede to the conservative nature of the 5th. He will not likely face the same problems Glenn Nye is facing among the Democratic base, but his willingness to support the President’s initiatives may hurt him with independent voters, given the hard shift to the right with that group in the gubernatorial election.

Republicans have had Perriello in their sights ever since his victory was confirmed. No less than six Republicans are vying for the nomination to replace him, but State Sen. Robert Hurt from the southwestern end of the district is the likely nominee. The band of unknowns trying to win the nomination include Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, businessmen Ron Ferrin and Laurence Verga, teacher Feda Kidd Morton, and pilot Michael McPadden. Hurt may face a hurdle given some of his votes in the legislature, such as his support of Mark Warner’s budget that included a tax increase, but he will have, if not all, then most of the institutional Republican support for the nomination.

Like in the 2nd, things are somewhat complicated by the entry of a conservative independent candidate, this time factory employee Bradley Rees. Hurt may be (pardon the pun) hurt by Rees if there is lingering Republican resentment over his insufficiently-right-wing-enough voting record.

Perriello got an early jump on fundraising; as of Q3, he’s raised $725k with $618k on hand. Hurt jumped into the race in late October, so he hasn’t had to file any reports yet; among the other candidates, nobody has raised any appreciable amount of money. Regardless, this will be the toughest battle in Virginia in 2010, so it remains a Tossup.

6th Congressional District

Incumbent: Bob Goodlatte (Republican elected in 1992)

2008 Result: Bob Goodlatte 61.6%, Sam Rasoul 36.6%

Goodlatte represents the bright-red Shenandoah Valley, a district that John McCain won by 15% in 2008. In his career, he’s only faced Democratic opponents four times; his closest election was when he was initially elected, and he defeated Stephen Musselwhite by a 60-40 margin. Democrats, unsurprisingly, don’t have a candidate, and I don’t expect things to change here; this is a Safe Republican seat.

7th Congressional District

Incumbent: Eric Cantor (Republican elected in 2000)

2008 Result: Eric Cantor 62.7%, Anita Hartke 37.1%

Like Goodlatte, Cantor represents a solidly Republican district; McCain won here by 7%, and the only reason it was that close was Obama’s above-average performance in the Richmond suburbs. Anita Hartke’s performance here was the best for any Democrat running against Cantor in his Congressional career, and most of that is probably attributable to the aforementioned performance by Obama; Hartke only raised about $75k. Cantor’s potential opponent, Charlie Diradour, opted out of a run after a few months of exploring a race, probably because he found no traction in the district. As the Republican Whip, Cantor will always be loathed by the Democratic base in the district; unfortunately, that base only amounts to 30-35% of the vote. If Democrats find someone to run against him, it won’t matter, as this race will remain Safe Republican.

8th Congressional District

Incumbent: Jim Moran (Democrat elected in 1990)

2008 Result: Jim Moran 67.9%, Mark Ellmore 29.7%

Jim Moran represents the solidly Democratic inner NoVa suburbs (in a district won by Obama with nearly 70%, and also won by Deeds with 61% despite his landslide loss), and has consistently been re-elected by double-digit margins every time he has gone back to the voters. It’s more likely that he would be knocked out in a primary, due to his history of controversial statements and his involvement with PMA, but the only potential candidate currently looking to challenge him is Ronald Mitchell, a political unknown. Republicans don’t have a candidate yet, but they undoubtedly will, as they always find someone to take up the unenviable task of running against him in this Safe Democratic district.

9th Congressional District

Incumbent: Rick Boucher (Democrat elected in 1982)

2008 Result: Rick Boucher was unopposed

Although in the past Rick Boucher has easily managed to be re-elected time and time again despite the otherwise Republican lean of the district, he has to be sweating bullets now. In the 2009 election, a Democratic Delegate in a historically-Democratic part of SWVA was defeated. This particular district voted for Creigh Deeds by a 53-47 margin in 2005, but voted for McDonnell by a 69-31 margin in 2009.

Boucher did himself no favors by voting for ACES in a region dependent on coal for jobs, and Republicans are looking for someone to challenge him in 2010. Terry Kilgore, the Republican Caucus Chair of the House of Delegates, would be their top recruit, and he’s thinking about it. If Kilgore gets in, this race becomes a tossup; if another Republican gets in, it’ll still be heavily contested. The only actual announced opponent to Boucher so far is yet another conservative independent, Jeremiah Heaton.

Boucher has amassed a war chest of $1.7 million, and he’ll probably need it, but until Republicans come up with a candidate this will be a Race to Watch.

10th Congressional District

Incumbent: Frank Wolf (Republican elected in 1980)

2008 Result: Frank Wolf 58.8%, Judy Feder 38.8%

When drawn, the 10th was a Republican district, but thanks to the explosive growth in Northern Virginia, it has moved more to the center. Tim Kaine and Jim Webb scored narrow wins in the district, and Barack Obama won a 7% victory here in 2008. Despite this trend to the Democrats, Frank Wolf remains solidly entrenched in the district, easily defeating well-funded opponent Judy Feder in 2006 and 2008. This has left his campaign account nearly empty; this cycle he has only raised $284k with $233k on hand. Democrats have a dearth of potential candidates in this district: State Sen. Mark Herring and Loudoun County Supervisor Stevens Miller could be strong challengers, but are unlikely to make a run against Wolf. The one Democratic candidate who is running that I’ve found is Dennis Findley, an architect from McLean. Until Wolf retires, this will remain Safe Republican.

11th Congressional District

Incumbent: Gerry Connolly (Democrat elected in 2008)

2008 Result: Gerry Connolly 54.7%, Keith Fimian 43.0%

Tom Davis’s retirement made this one of the most likely Democratic pickups in 2008. Although Davis was able to hold the district, its trend towards the Democrats culminated in a 15% victory for Barack Obama in 2008. Gerry Connolly, a longtime member of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors (including 5 years as its chairman), won a comfortable double-digit victory over Keith Fimian, a businessman; Fimian actually spent slightly more money than Connolly did in the race, having the benefit of his personal wealth to help finance his campaign. He’s back for a rematch, but seems to be relying on donations this time, as he trails Connolly in fundraising. Connolly has raised $715k with $545k on hand, while Fimian has raised $311k with $264k on hand, only $55k of which was a loan.

Connolly has staked out a position as a loyal Democrat, having voted consistently to support President Obama’s initiatives, so he shouldn’t face any real pushback from the Democratic base (except for one blogger who shall not be named). If there is significant antipathy towards Obama, though, he could face trouble from independents. However, Fimian has been cozying up to the teabaggers, which may not play well with the moderate-minded voters of the 11th district. For now, this race remains Likely Democratic; it’s not in the bag for Connolly, especially since the Republican ticket did win here in 2009, but he’s definitely the favorite one year out.

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R 35th (open) 23rd (Valentine) 44th (open) 51st (Nichols) 52nd (open) 64th (Barlow) 3rd (Bowling) 21st (Mathieson) 32nd (Poisson) 34th (Vanderhye) 42nd (Albo) 67th (Caputo) 86th (Rust) 93rd (Hamilton) 6th (Crockett-Stark) 13rd (B. Marshall) 17th (open) 83rd (Bouchard) 7th (Nutter) 14th (D. Marshall) 73rd (O’Bannon) Ratings changes since last time: 3rd – moved to Tossup from Likely Democratic 6th – moved to Lean Republican from Tossup 7th – moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican 14th – moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican 17th – moved to Lean Republican from Tossup 23rd – moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic 32nd – moved to Tossup from Likely Democratic 35th – (Re)added to the list at Likely Democratic 44th – moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic 58th – dropped from the list 67th – moved to Tossup from Lean Democratic 82nd – dropped from the list 83rd – moved to Lean Republican (pickup) from Tossup 87th – dropped from the list 93rd – moved to Tossup from Lean Democratic (pickup) 94th – dropped from the list

Here we are at the end of the campaign, and, well, Democratic chances suck. It will really depend on how well (or how badly) Deeds does at the top of the ticket. If he can keep McDonnell’s margin between 6-8 points, the Democrats might squeak by with minimal losses. If McDonnell wins big, say, by 12-14 points, expect a bloodbath. Democrats’ one saving grace may be history: since 1997, the largest number of incumbents to lose in a cycle was 4, in 2001 (and at least one of those was due to redistricting). If the power of incumbency holds true, Democratic losses may not be too severe, even in a double-digit McDonnell landslide.

For the final breakdown, I’ve arranged the target lists in the order of likelihood they will flip. Of course, the lists are not really equal, as it’s likely that the Democrats will only pick up 1 or 2 seats, while the Republicans could easily pick up 5 or more.

Democratic Targets

1. 52nd: open (Jeff Frederick retiring); Rafael Lopez vs. Luke Torian (Prince William)

Jeff Frederick, ostracized by his party, is retiring, so the Republican nominee is Rafael Lopez, who has run an anemic campaign: in September, he raised a whopping $670. It seems the Republicans aren’t even bothering to contest this seat. Democrats chose pastor Luke Torian in the primary, who will likely cruise to victory in November.

2. 93rd: Phil Hamilton vs. Robin Abbott (James City, Newport News)

Hamilton represents a Democratic district that has only gotten stronger in recent years, but hasn’t faced an opponent since 1995. Now he’s going up against attorney Robin Abbott. Like Albo, Hamilton has sensed danger and is suckling at the teat for PAC money. Hamilton has run into quite a bit of trouble about a job he was given by Old Dominion University that sprung from an appropriation he made for the school, particularly lying about not having any communication with them about it. Donations continue to roll into his campaign, though, mostly from his fellow Republican Delegates. He retains a 2-1 cash advantage over Abbott, so he’s not going down without a fight, but it remains to be seen whether he will be able to buy his way out of the hole he’s dug himself into. Two things going for Hamilton are McDonnell’s likely victory in the district, and the fact that the furor over his scandal may have peaked too soon.

3. 86th: Tom Rust vs. Stevens Miller (Fairfax, Loudoun)

Rust’s first serious challenge came in 2007, when he was held to 53% by Jay Donohue. The district has made a sharp left turn to the Democrats, voting 62% for Obama in 2008. Rust is being challenged this time by Loudoun County Supervisor Stevens Miller. Miller’s geographic location may help, as in 2007 Rust only narrowly won the Fairfax part of the district but dominated the Loudoun portion 55-45. Rust’s two saving graces are his large cash advantage over Miller (Miller’s fundraising has lacked, although the Democratic Party has stepped in big time) and, oddly enough, McDonnell’s coattails. Even though Deeds will still win this district, it probably won’t be by the 56-44 margin that he did in 2005.

4. 42nd: Dave Albo vs. Greg Werkheiser (Fairfax)

Dave Albo is notorious for being the driving force (no pun intended) behind the incredibly-unpopular abusive driving fees that were passed in 2007 and summarily repealed the next year. Greg Werkheiser, Albo’s 2005 opponent who came within a few percent of beating Albo, is running again. Albo has realized the peril he’s in and pumped a bunch of PAC money into his account. Democratic Party spending has helped even the odds for Werkheiser, though. Albo has given Werkheiser an issue to beat him around the head with in the last days of the campaign — he recently said he’d like to bring back the abusive driving fees.

5. 13th: Bob Marshall vs. John Bell (Loudoun, Prince William)

Bob Marshall is a far-right culture warrior in a rapidly-expanding Northern Virginia district (it has twice as many registered voters as most other House districts and narrowly voted for Obama last year after supporting Republicans in the past). He trounced Bruce Roemmelt in 2005 and 2007, but Air Force vet John Bell looks to be a stronger challenger, having outspent Marshall a staggering 5-1; however, Marshall is very good at holding this seat without spending a lot of money.

6. 6th: Anne Crockett-Stark vs. Carole Pratt (Bland, Giles, Pulaski, Tazewell, Wythe)

Anne Crockett-Stark picked up this seat in 2005, then failed to increase her margin much in 2007, winning 54-46 then 56-44. Challenger Carole Pratt was a last-minute fill-in, but her campaign is incredibly energetic, having more than doubled Crockett-Stark’s cash on hand and wrested the Virginia Education Association endorsement from her. However, this district is pretty Republican, and Crockett-Stark’s saving grace will probably be McDonnell’s coattails.

7. 17th: open (William Fralin retiring); Bill Cleaveland vs. Gwen Mason (Botetourt, Roanoke County, Roanoke City)

This is an open seat, the only reason this seat is a target, as it’s a pretty solidly Republican district (although Kaine did get 47% there). Democrat Gwen Mason, a member of the Roanoke City Council, was able to sit back and accrue a war chest as five Republicans battled it out for the nomination, in which attorney Bill Cleaveland emerged as the Republican victor. Cleaveland doesn’t seem to have much of a base in the district — he lives in Botetourt, the smallest part of the district, although his practice is in the City of Roanoke. His post-primary fundraising is also sputtering, aside from a large infusion of cash from a couple sources, including the retiring Fralin. McDonnell will likely win big here, though, which will be a drag on Mason.

8. 73rd: John O’Bannon vs. Thomas Shields (Henrico, Richmond City)

Suburban Richmond is home to John O’Bannon, who is being challenged by college professor Thomas Shields. This is actually the first time a Democrat has bothered to run against O’Bannon, who succeeded Eric Cantor following his election to Congress in 2000. Shields hasn’t found a way to overcome the large cash advantage that O’Bannon has, and I was about to write this off, but the Democratic Party has stepped in on his behalf. I still don’t expect much from this race, but if they sense something here, who knows.

9. 14th: Danny Marshall vs. Seward Anderson (Danville, Henry, Pittsylvania)

Danny Marshall narrowly held off Adam Tomer in 2007 52-48, and faces former Danville Mayor Seward Anderson this time. The problem for Anderson is winning enough of the vote in Pittsylvania; Marshall narrowly lost Danville in 2007 but won an overwhelming 63% in Pittsylvania to hold on. The district is swingy, voting for Deeds, Kaine, and Obama while also voting for Allen and Bolling, and Allen was the only one to hit 54% in the district. Anderson has a large cash deficit; Marshall has rocketed to a 2-1 cash on hand advantage as of September, so Anderson has quite a bit of ground to make up in the last days of the campaign.

10. 7th: Dave Nutter vs. Peggy Frank (Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford)

Nutter won 53-47 over Peggy Frank in 2007, and she’s come back for a rematch. There hasn’t been much news out of this race, and the rematch will likely end up with a wider margin for Nutter, as Frank’s campaign fundraising has petered out in the last weeks of the campaign.

Republican Targets

1. 83rd: Joe Bouchard vs. Chris Stolle (Virginia Beach)

Retired Navy Commander Joe Bouchard defeated Chris Stolle, brother of State Sen. Ken Stolle, by a mere 131 votes in 2007. Stolle has come back for a rematch, and hasn’t learned how to fundraise on his own, but he has friends in high places: brother Ken is running for Virginia Beach sheriff (a race he will likely win in a landslide) and Chris has had over $300,000 dumped into his campaign over the past month by the state Republicans. The Democrats are helping Bouchard out as well, but in a smaller capacity. Compounding the problem for Bouchard is the district’s Republican lean — it went 55-45 for McDonnell in 2005. This combination of factors, plus the fact that Deeds is not going to improve on his 2005 performance here, lead me to believe that Bouchard is fighting a losing battle.

2. 67th: Chuck Caputo vs. Jim LeMunyon (Fairfax, Loudoun)

Chuck Caputo easily defeated wingnut Chris Craddock to win an open Republican seat in 2005, then nearly lost the seat in 2007, winning only 53-47 against Marc Cadin. Now he will face another challenge, this time from entrepreneur Jim LeMunyon. Caputo is outspending LeMunyon heavily, which may be enough to let him squeak by, but he will get no help from Deeds’ coattails, or lack thereof.

3. 34th: Margi Vanderhye vs. Barbara Comstock (Fairfax)

When longtime incumbent Vince Callahan retired in 2007, this was considered an easy pickup. He was the last Republican from inside the beltway in the House of Delegates, and the district was won by every Democrat from John Kerry forward. However, Margi Vanderhye only managed a 3% victory. She’s being challenged by Barbara Comstock, a much more conservative Republican than the moderate Callahan. This race is one of the most expensive House races of 2009, with Comstock having raised $450,000 and Vanderhye $400,000; Vanderhye has been more judicious in her expenditures, though, and entered the last month of the campaign with a $127,000 to $100,000 cash advantage. It’s possible that McDonnell becomes the first statewide Republican candidate to win this year; if he does, he will probably pull Comstock along the finish line.

4. 21st: Bobby Mathieson vs. Ron Villanueva (Virginia Beach)

Mathieson trounced incumbent Republican John Welch in 2007, but this time he faces Ron Villanueva, a member of the Virginia Beach City Council, who has twice been elected citywide. There is a small but significant Filipino community in Virginia Beach which Villanueva might be able to appeal to, and this is Bob McDonnell’s home turf, definitely a boon for any Republican running here. However, working against the Republicans is the fact that this is the most Democratic House district in the city (although still won by McDonnell in 2005), and Villanueva’s fundraising has lagged behind Mathieson’s so far, although the Republican State Leadership Commitee has pumped $80,000 into his campaign in October. News broke in September that one of Mathieson’s aides embezzled campaign funds, but it hasn’t seemed to slow down his campaign any.

5. 32nd: David Poisson vs. Tag Greason (Loudoun)

Poisson underperformed in 2007 after defeating Dick Black in 2005. His 2009 opponent, Tag Greason, seems pretty weak, but with McDonnell poised to win in this district (he won here 51-49 in 2005 and will expand that margin this year), Greason could easily be pulled in by his coattails. Both candidates are being helped out significantly by their respective parties.

6. 3rd: Dan Bowling vs. Will Morefield (Buchanan, Russell, Tazewell)

Bowling was elected in a 2006 special election by a 60-28 margin, and was unopposed in 2007. He hasn’t done much in the way of fundraising, while his opponent this time, Will Morefield, has been the beneficiary of $80,000 in in-kinds and a $40,000 check from the Republican State Leadership Committee, suggesting that the Republicans are up on his chances. Although Deeds won this district in 2005, it’s far from certain that he will this time, so Bowling can’t depend on coattails.

7. 51st: Paul Nichols vs. Richard Anderson (Prince William)

Nichols picked up this seat from retiring Republican Michele McQuigg in 2007 against a pretty lame opponent, but similar to Vanderhye, only won by about 4%. He’s facing Richard Anderson in November. Nichols loaned himself $100k to get a leg up on Anderson; he’s since repaid those loans and still remains far ahead of Anderson in cash on hand. Anderson’s fundraising dried up in September, leaving him totally dependent on the Republican Party for assistance.

8. 23rd: Shannon Valentine vs. Scott Garrett (Amherst, Lynchburg)

Valentine won the seat in a 2006 special election and was unopposed in 2007, but this year she will face Lynchburg City Councilman Scott Garrett, who won the June primary. Garrett apparently blew his wad in the primary — after spending $115,000 on a 54-46 primary win, he’s now seriously trailing Shannon Valentine in money, although he has received a $50,000 check from the Republican State Leadership Committee. Also, Garrett will get a boost from Liberity University, where classes have been cancelled to get the students out to vote for the Republican ticket. Valentine has proven herself a popular figure in Lynchburg, but a victory here is far from certain.

9. 64th: Bill Barlow vs. Stan Clark vs. Albert Burckard Jr. (Franklin City, Isle of Wight, James City, Southampton, Surry, Williamsburg)

Barlow is a longtime incumbent who has been winning with shrinking margins over the years, from 65-32 in 1999 to just 54-45 in 2005, his last contested election. The Republicans have chosen Isle of Wight County Supervisor Stan Clark to face off against him, and Independent Green Albert Burckard Jr., who also ran in 2005, will also be on the ballot. Barlow is ahead in money coming into the home stretch (Clark has raised virtually nothing but is getting a lot of in-kinds from the Republican Party), but Clark may be able to cut into Barlow’s base in Isle of Wight. Compounding matters is the issue of a proposed coal power plant in Surry: contrary to what you might expect, Barlow has taken the “support” side, while Clark has taken the “oppose” side. Barlow’s support may cost him some needed votes in Democratic Surry County.

10. 44th: open (Kris Amundson retiring); Scott Surovell vs. Jay McConville vs. Glenda Gail Parker (Fairfax)

Admunson retired in late June, giving the Republicans a leg up with a decent fundraiser, Jay McConville, but the substitute candidate, Fairfax County Democratic party chair Scott Surovell, took no time catching up, and is running an energetic campaign. In addition, the district is pretty Democratic, which helps Surovell’s chances. However, open seats tend to be unpredictable, and the Deeds campaign won’t be providing long coattails for the Democratic candidates, even in Fairfax. The third candidate in the race is our favorite light rail-supporting perennial candidate, Glenda Gail Parker of the Indy Greens.

11. 35th: open (Steve Shannon retiring); Mark Keam vs. James Hyland (Fairfax)

I dropped this from the list but it’s back on considering how badly the election seems to be going. Brief recap: Keam wins primary overwhelmingly, Hyland doesn’t raise much money, Keam is still the favorite, but open seats are tricky things.

One More to Watch

91st: Tom Gear vs. Gordon Helsel vs. Sam Eure (Hampton, Poquoson, York)

This won’t cause a change in the House of Delegates, but I thought it was an interesting race nonetheless. Gear is being challenged by Democrat Sam Eure (who has raised nearly no money and his last campaign was for York County Board of Superviors — he lost by 15 percent) and Republican-turned-Independent Gordon Helsel, the Mayor of Poquoson, who has outraised Gear so far this year. The district is about 50-50 split between Hampton and Poquoson/York, and each locality has their own candidate — Gear from Hampton, Helsel from Poquoson, and Eure from York. Gear, however, performed weakest in Hampton the last time he was opposed, against an independent in 2005. He only won Hampton 57-42, whereas he won Poquoson and York with over 60%. It will be interesting to see how this race plays out.

Dropped from the List

58th: Rob Bell vs. Cynthia Neff (Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Orange)

Another masterful Republican gerrymander, this district is basically a New Jersey-shaped wedge around Charlottesville that has an ever-so-slight Republican lean. Bell faces a challenge from Cynthia Neff, a retired IBM executive, but Bell has a ridiculous amount of money — over $500,000 on hand. Not a typo, half a million dollars. I guess he’s been wanting to run statewide for a while. Neff has no way of overcoming that cash advantage at this point.

82nd: Bob Purkey vs. Peter Schmidt vs. John Parmele (Virginia Beach)

Purkey, a former Wall Street broker with over two decades of tenure in the House of Delegates, sleepwalks through one campaign after another, as he’s usually unopposed. His first serious opponent in years is Republican-turned-Democrat Peter Schmidt, who challenged Purkey in the Republican primary in 2005. McDonnell will win here with over 60%, so Purkey doesn’t need to campaign to win (and really, that’s pretty much what he does). Independent John Parmele, who lost 71-29 to Purkey in a two-way race in 2005, will be the third option on the ballot.

87th: Paula Miller vs. John Amiral (Norfolk)

Miller picked up Thelma Drake’s House of Delegates seat in a 2004 special election, and since then has not topped 54% of the vote. She may do it this time, though, as her opponent, Navy vet John Amiral, hasn’t done much of anything to get elected in his own right, nor has he received any help from the Republican Party. Although Amiral will probably get a boost from McDonnell here, the district isn’t Republican enough to lift him to victory.

94th: Glenn Oder vs. Gary West (Newport News)

Oder hasn’t faced a Democrat since he defeated John Miller (now a State Senator) 54-46 when he was first elected to the House in 2001. This year he is challenged by attorney Gary West, who has run a spirited campaign but lags far behind in money. Not going to be close.

Thought I’d take a look at the other side of the aisle. Given Tennessee’s trend towards the Republicans, here’s a GOP gerrymander of the state (I used the Ford/Corker numbers from 2006 as a 50/50 baseline for federal elections) intending a 6-3 Republican map. I thought this might be an interesting exercise, to consider what 2012 may look like in states that are not going our way.

Click for bigger.

TN-01 (blue, Phil Roe – R) – Didn’t change this one much, just reconfigured it to give some of its territory to the Democrats. still uber-safe Republican.

TN-02 (green, John Duncan – R) – Stretches west to take in some Democratic counties from TN-04 and TN-06, but the population remains centered in Knoxville. Will shift the margins for the Republican candidate from the 70s to the 60s, but still a safe seat.

TN-03 (purple, currently open R) – Also stretches out to take some Democratic territory from TN-06, but should remain Republican.

TN-04 (red, Lincoln Davis – D) – Screwed over Lincoln by chopping out most of his district and adding in parts of TN-01 and TN-06. A strong Republican should flip this seat.

TN-05 (yellow, Jim Cooper – D) – One of the two safe Dem seats on the map. Metro Nashville and Robertson County. 58-42 Obama.

TN-06 (teal, Bart Gordon – D) – Again, removed most of the existing district (only three counties of the old TN-06 remain) and added in some Republican territory in the south of the state. As with Lincoln, would probably flip with a strong Republican candidate.

TN-07 (grey, Marsha Blackburn – R) – Didn’t change too much, but it did take in a couple Democratic counties. Still safe R though.

TN-08 (light purple, John Tanner – D) – All the most Democratic parts of western Tennessee that aren’t Memphis. Tanner should be able to hold it easily, although an open seat might be more interesting.

TN-09 (light blue, Steve Cohen – D) – Memphis! 64% black! 80-20 margins for Democrats!

Two states that are not kind to Democrats. My intentions here were to shore up Chandler and Matheson’s seats. The tradeoff for Kentucky is essentially ceding the rest of the seats, but as we’ve seen in the past few cycles, those seats are well-nigh unwinnable, even in a great Dem year like 2006.

Kentucky

Click for big version.

KY-01 (blue, Ed Whitfield – R) – Removed the stupid little tail coming off the southeast end of the district. May have moved a couple of points toward the Dems, but still solidly Republican.

KY-02 (green, Brett Guthrie – R) – Not much changed here, aside from taking in part of the aforementioned stupid tail. Safe Republican.

KY-03 (purple, John Yarmuth – D) – Almost completely unchanged; all but a couple precincts of Louisville. Fairly safe for the Dems.

KY-04 (red, Geoff Davis – R) – Stretch of Republican territory along the Indiana, Ohio, and West Virginia borders. Should be pretty safe for the Republicans.

KY-05 (yellow, Hal Rogers – R) – Takes in all the Republican areas of SE Kentucky. Safe Republican.

KY-06 (teal, Ben Chandler – D) – Reconfigured this district to take in all of the most Democratic areas of eastern Kentucky. It’s gone from a 12-point McCain margin to about a 3-point McCain margin.

Utah

Click for giant version.

UT-01 (blue, Rob Bishop – R) – Ridiculous population growth causes this one to shrink to the counties north of Salt Lake City. Probably voted around 68-69% McCain.

UT-02 (green, Jim Matheson – D) – Perhaps the Republicans can dispense with the ridiculous attempts at getting rid of Matheson and resign themselves to the fact that, yes, there’s going to be one seat in the state that the Democrats can hold. Consists of Summit County, Salt Lake City proper, and some of the surrounding suburbs. Almost undoubtedly voted for Obama.

UT-03 (red, Jason Chaffetz – R) – Made this the “rural district”, but the part of Utah County that is in the district is still a large chunk of the population. Really shows you how few people live outside of the SLC/Provo area of the state. Went 70+% for McCain easily.

UT-04 (purple, open) – New suburban district, gonna go out on a limb and guess it’s safe Republican. Probably mid-60s for McCain.

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R 3rd (Bowling) 23rd (Valentine) 32nd (Poisson) 44th (open) 87th (Miller) 51st (Nichols) 52nd (open) 64th (Barlow) 67th (Caputo) 93rd (Hamilton) 6th (Crockett-Stark) 17th (open) 21st (Mathieson) 34th (Vanderhye) 42nd (Albo) 83rd (Bouchard) 86th (Rust) 7th (Nutter) 13rd (B. Marshall) 14th (D. Marshall) 58th (Bell) 73rd (O’Bannon) 82nd (Purkey) 94th (Oder) Ratings changes since last time: 6th – moved to Tossup from Lean Republican (Pratt is running a spirited campaign; Crockett-Stark seems to be sleepwalking) 7th – moved to Lean Republican from Tossup (Deeds’ sagging poll numbers are not going to help Frank) 21st – moved to Tossup from Lean Democratic (Tough race in McDonnell’s home turf + embezzlement problem for Mathieson) 23rd – moved to Likely Democratic from Lean Democratic (huge cash advantage for Valentine) 26th – dropped from the list (Just doesn’t look like it’s there) 35th – dropped from the list (Keam is kicking Hyland’s butt money-wise) 50th – dropped from the list (Rishell’s campaign is terrible) 67th – moved to Lean Democratic from Likely Democratic (Caputo underperforms) 93rd – moved to Lean Democratic (pickup) from Tossup (Hamilton scandal) 94th – moved to Likely Republican from Lean Republican (3-1 cash advantage for Oder)

Democratic Targets

6th: Anne Crockett-Stark vs. Carole Pratt (Bland, Giles, Pulaski, Tazewell, Wythe)

Anne Crockett-Stark picked up this seat in 2005, then failed to increase her margin much in 2007, winning 54-46 then 56-44. Challenger Carole Pratt was a last-minute fill-in, but her campaign is incredibly energetic, having more than doubled Crockett-Stark’s cash on hand and wrested the Virginia Education Association endorsement from her. The district is fairly Republican but is sympathetic to the right Democrat — Deeds only lost the district 55-45 in 2005, whereas Obama lost it 61-37.

7th: Dave Nutter vs. Peggy Frank (Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford)

Nutter won 53-47 over Peggy Frank in 2007, and she’s come back for a rematch. There hasn’t been much news out of this race, and it will probably come down to the margin at the top of the ticket; if Deeds wins or makes it close (he got 48% here in 2005), Frank will have a much higher chance of winning than if Deeds loses by a significant margin.

13th: Bob Marshall vs. John Bell (Loudoun, Prince William)

Bob Marshall is a far-right culture warrior in a rapidly-expanding exurban district (it has twice as many registered voters as most other House districts and narrowly voted for Obama last year after supporting Republicans in the past). He trounced Bruce Roemmelt in 2005 and 2007, but Air Force vet John Bell looks to be a stronger challenger, having outraised Marshall 2-1, although his high burn rate gives Marshall a slight cash advantage, and Marshall is very good at holding this seat without spending a lot of money.

14th: Danny Marshall vs. Seward Anderson (Danville, Henry, Pittsylvania)

Danny Marshall narrowly held off Adam Tomer in 2007 52-48, and faces another strong challenger this time, former Danville Mayor Seward Anderson. The problem for Anderson is winning enough of the vote in Pittsylvania; Marshall narrowly lost Danville last time but won an overwhelming 63% in Pittsylvania to hold on. The district is swingy, voting for Deeds, Kaine, and Obama while also voting for Allen and Bolling, and Allen was the only one to hit 54% in the district. Marshall has rocketed to a 2-1 cash on hand advantage over Anderson as of September, so Anderson has some ground to make up in the last two months of the campaign.

17th: open (William Fralin retiring); Bill Cleaveland vs. Gwen Mason (Botetourt, Roanoke County, Roanoke City)

This is an open seat, the only reason this seat is a target, as it’s a pretty solidly Republican district (although Kaine did get 47% there). Democrat Gwen Mason, a member of the Roanoke City Council, was able to sit back and accrue a war chest as five Republicans battled it out for the nomination, in which attorney Bill Cleaveland emerged as the Republican victor. Cleaveland doesn’t seem to have much of a base in the district — he lives in Botetourt, the smallest part of the district, although his practice is in the City of Roanoke. His post-primary fundraising is also sputtering, aside from a large infusion of cash from retiring Fralin.

42nd: Dave Albo vs. Greg Werkheiser (Fairfax)

Dave Albo is notorious for being the driving force (no pun intended) behind the incredibly-unpopular abusive driving fees that were passed in 2007 and summarily repealed the next year. Greg Werkheiser, Albo’s 2005 opponent who came within a few percent of beating Albo, is running again. Albo has realized the peril he’s in and pumped a bunch of PAC money into his account. There doesn’t seem to be a special interest around that he won’t take money from, and it’s given him a 2-1 cash advantage over Werkheiser.

52nd: open (Jeff Frederick retiring); Rafael Lopez vs. Luke Torian (Prince William)

Jeff Frederick, ostracized by his party, is retiring, so the Republican nominee is Rafael Lopez. Frederick’s wife Amy had filed for the Republican nomination but withdrew before the primary. Democrats chose pastor Luke Torian in the primary, who will likely cruise to victory in November. This district was won by Obama 63-36 — not fertile ground for a Republican hold in the best of circumstances.

58th: Robert Bell vs. Cynthia Neff (Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Orange)

Another masterful Republican gerrymander, this district is basically a New Jersey-shaped wedge around Charlottesville that has an ever-so-slight Republican lean. Bell faces a challenge from Cynthia Neff, a retired IBM executive, but get this — Bell has over $500,000 on hand. Not a typo, half a million dollars. I guess he’s been wanting to run statewide for a while. Neff is going to have to go a long way to make up for this financial disadvantage.

73rd: John O’Bannon vs. Thomas Shields (Henrico, Richmond City)

Suburban Richmond is home to John O’Bannon, who has $175,000 in the bank and is being challenged by college professor Thomas Shields. Shields has a lot of catching up to do to match O’Bannon’s fundraising. This is actually the first time a Democrat has bothered to run against O’Bannon, who succeeded Eric Cantor following his election to Congress in 2000. The district is one of many in the Commonwealth that is moving towards the center after being Republican-leaning for a while.

82nd: Bob Purkey vs. Peter Schmidt vs. John Parmele (Virginia Beach)

Purkey, a former Wall Street broker, sleepwalks through one campaign after another. His first serious opponent in years is Republican-turned-Democrat Peter Schmidt, who challenged Purkey in the Republican primary in 2005. Schmidt’s profile as a moderate former Republican could be a boon in his bid, but he will be fighting the heavy Republican lean in this district — 60-40 for both McDonnell in 2005 and McCain last year. Independent John Parmele, who lost 71-29 to Purkey in a two-way race in 2005, will be the third option on the ballot.

86th: Tom Rust vs. Stevens Miller (Fairfax, Loudoun)

Rust’s first serious challenge came in 2007, when he was held to 53% by Jay Donohue. The district has made a sharp left turn to the Democrats, voting 62% for Obama in 2008. Rust is being challenged this time by Loudoun County Supervisor Stevens Miller. Miller’s geographic location may help, as in 2007 Rust only narrowly won the Fairfax part of the district but dominated the Loudoun portion 55-45. If anything saves Rust, it’s his large cash on hand advantage over Miller.

93rd: Phil Hamilton vs. Robin Abbott (James City, Newport News)

Hamilton represents a Democratic district that has only gotten stronger in recent years, but hasn’t faced an opponent since 1995. Now he’s going up against attorney Robin Abbott. Like Albo, Hamilton has sensed danger and is suckling at the teat for PAC money. Hamilton has run into quite a bit of trouble about a job he was given by Old Dominion University that sprung from an appropriation he made for the school, particularly lying about not having any communication with them about it. He’s resisted calls to resign, but it seems that the wheels are coming off his campaign; donations continue to roll into his campaign, though, mostly from his fellow Republican Delegates. He retains a 2-1 cash advantage over Abbott, so he’s not going down without a fight, but it remains to be seen whether he will be able to buy his way out of the hole he’s dug himself into. I’m leaning towards “no”, personally.

94th: Glenn Oder vs. Gary West (Newport News)

Oder is yet another Republican in a slightly Republican-leaning district, although it was won by Obama last year. He hasn’t faced a Democrat since he defeated John Miller (now a State Senator) 54-46 when he was first elected to the House in 2001. This year he is challenged by attorney Gary West, who is running a spirited campaign but faces an uphill fight against the district’s Republican lean in the off-year; although it barely went for Kaine in 2005, it supported McDonnell by an 8-point margin. West’s fundraising has lagged; as of September he has only $22,000 in the bank compared to Oder’s $78,000.

Republican Targets

3rd: Dan Bowling vs. James Morefield (Buchanan, Russell, Tazewell)

This is a fairly swingy district that went 59-40 for McCain while supporting both Webb and Deeds in previous years. Bowling will find Deeds a boon at the top of the ticket, and his opponent, James Morefield, trails Bowling in fundraising (although Morefield is being propped up by in-kinds), but it’s still one to watch.

21st: Bobby Mathieson vs. Ron Villanueva (Virginia Beach)

Mathieson trounced incumbent Republican John Welch in 2007, but this time he faces Ron Villanueva, a member of the Virginia Beach City Council, who has twice been elected citywide. There is a small but significant Filipino community in Virginia Beach which Villanueva might be able to appeal to, and this is Bob McDonnell’s home turf, definitely a boon for any Republican running here. However, working against the Republicans is the fact that this is the most Democratic House district in the city (although still won by McDonnell in 2005), and Villanueva’s fundraising has lagged behind Mathieson’s so far. Mathieson may be hindered by the news in September that one of his campaign aides had embezzled campaign funds.

23rd: Shannon Valentine vs. Scott Garrett (Amherst, Lynchburg)

Valentine won the seat in a 2006 special election and was unopposed in 2007, but this year she will face Lynchburg City Councilman Scott Garrett, who won the June primary. Garrett apparently blew his wad in the primary — after spending $115,000 on a 54-46 primary win, he’s now seriously trailing Shannon Valentine in money. Valentine is sitting pretty with $225,000, whereas Garrett has only $32,000 on hand.

32nd: David Poisson vs. Tag Greason (Loudoun)

Poisson underperformed in 2007 after defeating Dick Black in 2005, but his 2009 opponent, Tag Greason, doesn’t seem to be up to the challenge, as Poisson holds a 3-1 cash advantage as of September. This is a swing district with a slight Democratic lean.

34th: Margi Vanderhye vs. Barbara Comstock (Fairfax)

When longtime incumbent Vince Callahan retired in 2007, this was considered an easy pickup. He was the last Republican from inside the beltway in the House of Delegates, and the district was won by every Democrat from John Kerry forward. However, Margi Vanderhye only managed a 3% victory. She’s being challenged by Barbara Comstock, a much more conservative Republican than the moderate Callahan. This race is one of the most expensive House races of 2009, with Comstock having raised over $300,000 and Vanderhye having raised $235,000; Vanderhye has been more judicious in her expenditures, though, and trails by only $158,000 to $132,000 cash on hand as of September.

44th: open (Kris Amundson retiring); Scott Surovell vs. Jay McConville vs. Glenda Gail Parker (Fairfax)

Admunson retired in late June, giving the Republicans a leg up with a decent fundraiser, Jay McConville, but the substitute candidate, Fairfax County Democratic party chair Scott Surovell, took no time catching up, raising $80,000 in eight days, and he remains ahead in the money race as of September. In addition, the district is pretty Democratic, which helps Surovell’s chances. The third candidate in the race is our favorite light rail-supporting perennial candidate, Glenda Gail Parker of the Indy Greens.

51st: Paul Nichols vs. Richard Anderson (Prince William)

Nichols picked up this seat from retiring Republican Michele McQuigg in 2007 against a pretty lame opponent, but similar to Vanderhye, only won by about 4%. He’s facing Richard Anderson in November. Nichols loaned himself $100k to get a leg up on Anderson; he’s since repaid half those loans and still remains far ahead of Anderson in cash on hand.

64th: Bill Barlow vs. Stan Clark vs. Albert Burckard Jr. (Franklin City, Isle of Wight, James City, Southampton, Surry, Williamsburg)

Barlow is a longtime incumbent who has been winning with shrinking margins over the years, from 65-32 in 1999 to just 54-45 in 2005, his last contested election. The Republicans have chosen Isle of Wight County Supervisor Stan Clark to face off against him, and Independent Green Albert Burckard Jr., who also ran in 2005, will also be on the ballot. Barlow is far ahead in money coming into the home stretch, but Clark may be able to cut into Barlow’s base in Isle of Wight.

67th: Chuck Caputo vs. Jim LeMunyon (Fairfax, Loudoun)

Chuck Caputo easily defeated wingnut Chris Craddock to win an open Republican seat in 2005, then nearly lost the seat in 2007, winning only 53-47 against Marc Cadin. Now he will face another challenge, this time from entrepreneur Jim LeMunyon. Caputo currently leads LeMunyon 2-1 in cash on hand (who has had to loan himself $20,000 to try to keep up), which, if 2007 is any indicator, is about what he needs to win again. However, he probably won’t be winning by a large margin.

83rd: Joe Bouchard vs. Chris Stolle (Virginia Beach)

Retired Navy Commander Joe Bouchard defeated Chris Stolle, brother of State Sen. Ken Stolle, by a mere 131 votes in 2007. Stolle has come back for a rematch, but can’t depend on his brother’s help this time, as Ken is busy running for Virginia Beach Sheriff. Stolle’s fundraising hasn’t been able to keep up with Bouchard, but working in his favor is that he’ll be running downticket from Bob McDonnell, who won the district by 10 points in 2005.

87th: Paula Miller vs. John Amiral (Norfolk)

Miller picked up Thelma Drake’s House of Delegates seat in a 2004 special election, winning by a 97-vote margin over Michael Ball. She won against Ball again in 2005, that time by a 50-38 margin, with Republican-running-as-Independent John Coggeshall picking up the remaining 12 percent. In 2007, she defeated retired Vice Admiral Hank Giffin by a 54-46 margin (and keep in mind, this district includes a lot of the area near Norfolk Naval Station). This may be her easiest fight yet, against another Navy vet, John Amiral, but her fundraising is pretty anemic so far. Although Obama cleaned up here in 2008, this is a swing district in off-years, and has enough recent high-end residential development to keep any Democrat wary.

One More to Watch

91st: Tom Gear vs. Gordon Helsel vs. Sam Eure (Hampton, Poquoson, York)

This won’t cause a change in the House of Delegates, but I thought it was an interesting race nonetheless. Gear is being challenged by Democrat Sam Eure (who has raised nearly no money and his last campaign was for York County Board of Superviors — he lost by 15 percent) and Republican-turned-Independent Gordon Helsel, the Mayor of Poquoson, who is outraising Gear by about 2-1. The district is about 50-50 split between Hampton and Poquoson/York, and each locality has their own candidate — Gear from Hampton, Helsel from Poquoson, and Eure from York. Gear, however, performed weakest in Hampton the last time he was opposed, against an independent in 2005. He only won Hampton 57-42, whereas he won Poquoson and York with over 60%. It will be interesting to see how this race plays out.

Dropped from the List

26th: Matt Lohr vs. Gene Hart (Harrisonburg, Rockingham)

Lohr was elected 54-46 in 2005 against Lowell Fulk (not to be confused with blogger Lowell Feld), and faced only an independent in 2007. Harrisonburg attorney Gene Hart is taking a swing at it this time. Though he seems to be running a spirited campaign, his fundraising just doesn’t look strong enough to make it a close race in a district that’s this tough — blood-red Rockingham County didn’t even go for Warner in 2008.

35th: open (Steve Shannon retiring); Mark Keam vs. James Hyland (Fairfax)

Steve Shannon, of course, is the Democratic nominee for Attorney General. Republican James Hyland, a former chair of the Fairfax County Republican Party who lost 60-40 to Shannon in 2005, had a clear path to the nomination; Democrats overwhelmingly chose Mark Keam, an attorney who worked on Barack Obama’s Virginia campaign, in the four-way primary. Keam is a fundraising machine, and will leave Hyland in the dust by November.

50th: Jackson Miller vs. Jeanette Rishell (Manassas, Manassas Park, Prince William)

Rishell has run for this seat twice before and lost twice, first 53-47 in a 2006 special election, then by 61-39 in 2007. This is a swing district, and Rishell is good at raising money, but that’s about it. Her campaign has been ineptly run, possibly since her campaign manager has been involved in a scandal and keeps making gaffes.

Click to embiggen.

My plan was to eliminate one of the GOP-held districts and shore up the Chicago suburban districts for the Dems as much as possible. In the end, I eliminted Judy Biggert’s district. Here’s the breakdown:

IL-01 (dark blue, Bobby Rush – D) – Extends southwest to Will County, but remains majority-black, if only just barely (52%).

IL-02 (dark green, Jesse Jackson Jr. – D) – Same as IL-01, except it takes in more of Will County and is 53% black.

IL-03 (dark purple, Dan Lipinski – D and Judy Biggert – R) – Extends into the DuPage County suburbs, taking in Judy Biggert’s home. The population is still centered in Cook County, so Lipinski should be safe, but it’s a more appropriate district for his moderate views.

IL-04 (dark red, Luis Gutierrez – D) – Somewhat of a gerrymander still, but much less so than before. I hope Gutierrez doesn’t live in the old northern part of the district. 70% Hispanic.

IL-05 (yellow, Michael Quigley – D) – Didn’t change this one much. It’s only 54% white.

IL-06 (teal, Pete Roskam – R) – Now stretches up from DuPage around to take in some Republican parts of northern Cook and Lake Counties. Probably somewhat more Republican now.

IL-07 (grey, Danny Davis – D) – I had a hell of a time getting three black-majority districts out of Illinois. This one is 52% black. I think we’ll be seeing the loss of one of the black-majority districts and gaining another Hispanic-majority district in Illinois either in 2010 or 2020.

IL-08 (light purple, Melissa Bean – D) – Reconfigured the district to drop McHenry and add more of northwestern Cook County. Should be more Democratic.

IL-09 (very light blue, Jan Schakowsky – D) – Pretty unchanged, solidly Dem district.

IL-10 (magenta, Mark Kirk – R) – Pretty much unchanged, so it should still be a Democratic district. If only a Democrat can win it in 2010.

IL-11 (very light green, Will County-based district, Debbie Halvorson – D) – Shrunk this district to just Will and Kendall Counties. Should be easy for Halvorson to hold.

IL-12 (very light purple in the southwest, Jerry Costello – D) – More or less unchanged, added some swing counties in the north of the district and dropped some Republican parts in the southeast.

IL-13 (pink, John Shimkus – R) – Formerly the 19th district, pretty much all Republican territory in the south of the state.

IL-14 (brown, Bill Foster – D) – Replacing the phallic old district, IL-14 now stretches from Foster’s home base of Aurora/Batavia, through DuPage and up to Rockford. Should be more Democratic now.

IL-15 (orange, Timothy Johnson – R) – Created a slightly Republican-leaning district that should be competitive in an open seat, but Johnson probably wouldn’t break a sweat holding.

IL-16 (light green district in the northwest corner, Don Manzullo – R) – Takes in all the swingy and Republican territory in the northwest, should be safe for Manzullo.

IL-17 (purple district with spidery tendrils, Phil Hare – D) – Still a gerrymander but much less ridiculous; shouldn’t change the partisan composition much.

IL-18 (yellow, Aaron Schock – R) – Takes in all the Republican territory in the middle of the state. Safe Republican.

Click to embiggen.

My intention here was to draw two majority-minority districts, and I was able to succeed rather well. The map has a lot of diagonals, but that’s what you get when your population is so polarized. Here’s the breakdown:

AL-01 (purple, Jo Bonner – R) – Removing Mobile and adding the heavily-Republican southern counties has probably made this one of the most Republican districts in the country.

AL-02 (blue, Bobby Bright – “D”) – Added all of Montgomery and stretched it west in order to make this district the primary majority-black district in the state. It is 56% black, 39% white. Bright would almost assuredly get knocked out in the primary by a black Democrat, who might actually vote with the Democrats sometimes.

AL-03 (yellow, Mike Rogers – R) – Of course, the sacrifice here is that Rogers’ district is pretty much unwinnable for the Dems now. Removing the parts of Montgomery in the district has dropped the black population from about 32% to 24%.

AL-04 (teal, Robert Aderholt – R) – This district didn’t change very much, although it did take in the northern hook of AL-06. Very, very, very safe Republican.

AL-05 (grey, Parker Griffith – “D”) – Also didn’t change this one much. Can’t say I care what happens to Griffith at this point.

AL-06 (red, Spencer Bachus – R) – Loses the aforementioned northern hook around Birmingham and moves a bit to the southeast, which is not going to hurt Bachus any.

AL-07 (green, open) – This is what remains of Artur Davis’s seat after giving a lot of it to AL-02. Takes in more of the Birmingham area to compensate, but remains 52% black, 43% white.

This time, I’m doing what is most likely: a bipartisan incumbent protection gerrymander. Barring a major shift in the November election, in which Deeds wins and Democrats win the House of Delegates, there will have to be a compromise map. Here it is:

Click to embiggen.

VA-01 (blue, Rob Wittman – R) – Wittman picks up all of Stafford and part of heavily-Republican Hanover and loses some of the counties that went for Obama, and the parts of Williamsburg and Newport News as well. Also picks up the more Republican part of Hampton from Glenn Nye, as well as the Eastern Shore. This may seem weird, but while the Eastern Shore is not physically connected to VA-01, it is culturally much more like parts of the district than Virginia Beach.

VA-02 (green, Glenn Nye – D) – Dropping the Republican parts of Virginia Beach and Hampton and picks up all of Norfolk, Portsmouth, most of Suffolk and the minority-heavy part of Chesapeake. I’ve actually gotten it to a coalition district, as it’s 49% white. Should be a safe district now, although Nye may not be safe from a primary challenge from the left unless he moves left accordingly.

VA-03 (purple, Bobby Scott – D) – Ladies and gentlemen, may I present a contiguous VA-03. Removing the Southside Hampton Roads parts of the district, I’ve added all of Newport News, Sussex/Greensville/Emporia, and Petersburg and the black parts of Hopewell. Remains 53% black.

VA-04 (red, Randy Forbes – R) – Losing the black parts of Chesapeake and parts of the district given to Bobby Scott, and adding the Republican parts of Virginia Beach and more of Chesterfield should make Forbes’ district more Republican.

VA-05 (yellow, Tom Perriello – D) – District shifts north to Northern Virginia. Dropped all the southern part of the district and pushed it up north to Prince William. The tradeoff for Perriello is having to run in the expensive DC media market.

VA-06 (Bob Goodlatte – R) – Didn’t change this district much, it just shifted south a bit.

VA-07 (grey, Eric Cantor – R) – Cantor’s district is possibly even more Republican now, taking in much of the heavily-Republican Southside counties and a few Democratic counties out of Wittman’s district instead of pushing northwest towards the Shenandoah Valley.

VA-08 (light purple, Jim Moran – D) – Alexandria, Arlington, and eastern Fairfax. Safe Democratic.

VA-09 (light blue, Rick Boucher – D) – Picks up Danville and drops the Ronaoke area. Not much you can do for Rick.

VA-10 (magenta, Frank Wolf – R) – Dropping Prince William and going west into the Shenandoah Valley should make this district more Republican.

VA-11 (light green, Gerry Connolly – D) – Western Fairfax, should be safe Dem.

Click to embiggen.

My intention here was to shore up CO-03, CO-04, and CO-07. I was not successful with CO-03, there’s just not enough Democratic territory in that area to help Salazar, so I settled on making Markey and Perlmutter safer.

CO-01 (gray, Diana DeGette – D) – Chopped off the northeastern part of Denver and added some of the suburbs. Remains solid Dem.

CO-02 (green, Jared Polis – D) – Drops the Weld County portion of the district and extends west to take in some of the Republican rural counties and south to the Denver suburbs and Park County. Should remain a Democratic district.

CO-03 (blue, John Salazar – D) – Removed a few heavily Republican counties. Maybe slightly more Democratic now.

CO-04 (purple, Betsy Markey – D) – Removed all the heavily Republican rural counties on the eastern third of the state. Added parts of Adams and Denver. Should be significantly more friendly to the Democrats now.

CO-05 (red, Doug Lamborn – R) – Takes in some of the Republican counties from CO-04, but since they’re sparsely populated it shouldn’t shift the population base much.

CO-06 (yellow, Mike Coffman – R) – Same as above.

CO-07 (teal, Ed Perlmutter – D) – Drops most of the Adams County portion and adds part of Denver to make the district more Democratic.