My plan was to eliminate one of the GOP-held districts and shore up the Chicago suburban districts for the Dems as much as possible. In the end, I eliminted Judy Biggert’s district. Here’s the breakdown:
IL-01 (dark blue, Bobby Rush – D) – Extends southwest to Will County, but remains majority-black, if only just barely (52%).
IL-02 (dark green, Jesse Jackson Jr. – D) – Same as IL-01, except it takes in more of Will County and is 53% black.
IL-03 (dark purple, Dan Lipinski – D and Judy Biggert – R) – Extends into the DuPage County suburbs, taking in Judy Biggert’s home. The population is still centered in Cook County, so Lipinski should be safe, but it’s a more appropriate district for his moderate views.
IL-04 (dark red, Luis Gutierrez – D) – Somewhat of a gerrymander still, but much less so than before. I hope Gutierrez doesn’t live in the old northern part of the district. 70% Hispanic.
IL-05 (yellow, Michael Quigley – D) – Didn’t change this one much. It’s only 54% white.
IL-06 (teal, Pete Roskam – R) – Now stretches up from DuPage around to take in some Republican parts of northern Cook and Lake Counties. Probably somewhat more Republican now.
IL-07 (grey, Danny Davis – D) – I had a hell of a time getting three black-majority districts out of Illinois. This one is 52% black. I think we’ll be seeing the loss of one of the black-majority districts and gaining another Hispanic-majority district in Illinois either in 2010 or 2020.
IL-08 (light purple, Melissa Bean – D) – Reconfigured the district to drop McHenry and add more of northwestern Cook County. Should be more Democratic.
IL-09 (very light blue, Jan Schakowsky – D) – Pretty unchanged, solidly Dem district.
IL-10 (magenta, Mark Kirk – R) – Pretty much unchanged, so it should still be a Democratic district. If only a Democrat can win it in 2010.
IL-11 (very light green, Will County-based district, Debbie Halvorson – D) – Shrunk this district to just Will and Kendall Counties. Should be easy for Halvorson to hold.
IL-12 (very light purple in the southwest, Jerry Costello – D) – More or less unchanged, added some swing counties in the north of the district and dropped some Republican parts in the southeast.
IL-13 (pink, John Shimkus – R) – Formerly the 19th district, pretty much all Republican territory in the south of the state.
IL-14 (brown, Bill Foster – D) – Replacing the phallic old district, IL-14 now stretches from Foster’s home base of Aurora/Batavia, through DuPage and up to Rockford. Should be more Democratic now.
IL-15 (orange, Timothy Johnson – R) – Created a slightly Republican-leaning district that should be competitive in an open seat, but Johnson probably wouldn’t break a sweat holding.
IL-16 (light green district in the northwest corner, Don Manzullo – R) – Takes in all the swingy and Republican territory in the northwest, should be safe for Manzullo.
IL-17 (purple district with spidery tendrils, Phil Hare – D) – Still a gerrymander but much less ridiculous; shouldn’t change the partisan composition much.
IL-18 (yellow, Aaron Schock – R) – Takes in all the Republican territory in the middle of the state. Safe Republican.
According to the 2008 estimates they should be fine:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/…
And for this entire series. They’re always fascinating.
A Lipinski vs. Biggert matchup would be interesting, with a pro-life Democrat running against a pro-choice Republican. That almost never happens.
be such a blue dog once he gets a safer Dem district
1. Melissa Bean might prefer a less Democratic district to a more Democratic one. At this point, Bean is not only a Blue Dog but she’s openly “mouthy” about it and a primary looks like more of a threat than the general election.
2. A majority Hispanic district could continue to elect a black representative in the near future. It happens in California. Voters and population don’t neccessarily agree.
3. Losing Lipinski and Bean and replacing it with one all out liberal would be a net gain. I don’t want an appropriate district for Lipinski. Instead I’d prefer an appropriate representative. Having once lived in Chicago, that might not be an easy feat.
4. Aren’t the current districts the result of a Republican gerrymander that fell apart?