Author: RandySF

While we took some bad news that puts us on the defensive in the LA-06, we have some good news today that keeps us on offense in the LA-04. A list of qualifying candidates compliled by ryan at Daily Kingfish indicates that State Senator Lydia Jackson did not file to rund for Congress in the LA-04 as a Democrat or Independent.

LA-04

Willie Banks, Democrat

Paul Carmouche, Democrat

Artis “Doc” Cash, Democrat

John Milkovich, Democrat

John Fleming, Republican

Chris Gorman, Republican

Jeff Thompson, Republican

Chester T. “Catfish” Kelley, No Party

Gerard J. Bowen, Jr., Other

So we’ll see one Democrat and one GOPer on the November ballot in the 4th along with Mr. Kelley and Mr. Bowen.

Ms. Jackson is apparently the team player that Mr. Jackson is not. Her decision keeps Paul Carmouche in the driver’s seat for the Democratic nomination and and will allow him to focus his firepower against the Republicans. It may also keep some pressure off Don Cazayoux as he tries to defend his seat.

Earlier this month I made a decision to financially support five House candidates through election day. They were Ethan Berkowitz (AK-AL), Paul Carmouche (LA-04), Betsy Markey, Mark Schauer (MI-07) and Eric Massa (NY-29). However, last night’s defeat of Chris Cannon in Utah convinced me that Don Young will not win his primary and Berkowitz will have to face a much stronger Sean Parnell, and that leaves me with a decision to make. Should I stick with Berkowitz or should I walk away?

When I made the above choices, I did so with the intent of helping to flip those seats from red to blue. I have no interest in “pinning the Republicans down”. The DCCC has millions to do that with, I don’t. So, I am looking at the following options.

1. Stick with Ethan through the end (the argument being he can still win no matter).

2. Keep up support and see what happens in August.

3. Find another House candidate.

4. Help Mark Begich, since the house and senate races cover the same turf and media markets.

If I do choose another candidate, I am looking at Dina Titus, Walt Minnick or Gary Trauner. So, I as always, I am seeking your valuable input and I thank you again for your suggestions.

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When it comes to downballot races, it has been the New York State Senate that has held much of my attention this election year. And from the Albany Project’s Phillp Anderson  comes a report that Republican Majority Leader Joseph Bruno is making moves that may indicate an intent to retire this year rather than lead a likely minority in a state where the Republican Party will be mostly shut out at the federal and state levels.

Because today, the last day in the last regular legislative session that Bruno’s Republicans will control for a long, long time, brings us another odd clue that it may be Uncle Joe’s last hurrah as well. A few weeks ago we learned that the long neglected Senate Minority conference room received a rather extensive renovation, a move that some interpreted as a sign that the Republican majority in the Senate could see the writing on the wall and wanted to spruce up the joint while they still controlled the spending to do so. I’m also hearing quite a bit about some rather vicious infighting in Uncle Joe’s caucus and much of it appears to be generational in nature. The Republican majority in the New York State Senate is on the way out and they all know it. This seems to have some members, particularly the younger ones, fairly upset. Today we learn that one of Joe Bruno’s closest aides is being set up with a long term gig at a significant pay cut.

An experienced Dem hand in Albany spoke to me about the possibility of Bruno “taking a dive”, as he put it, last week. I’ll believe that when Bruno actually holds a press conference where he throws in the towel, not before, but the signs that he may be at least considering spending more time with his horses continue to mount.

I have been reading TAP since I discovered it in 2007 and there is probably no one in the New York blogosphere better connected to his state’s politics than he. Like Phillip, I will wait and see what the official word is, but retirement makes every bit of sense to me. Obama will win there big. We will likely pick up 3-4 of the remaining Congressional seat now held by Republicans. The Governor, both senate seats and the State Assembly are firmly in Democratic hands and the Senate is likely to flip. Furthermore, the once mighty New York Republican Party is now a mere shadow of the era Nelson Rockefeller, Jacob Javitz and Al D’Amato. The handwriting is on the wall. Maybe Joe will do the sensible thing and walk away.

As I said yesterday, it goes without saying that my condolances go out to the Powers family. However, the busness of politics goes on, and if the Republicans hope they can recruit a stronger candiate to take Frank Powers’ they may be out of luck.  

State Sen. Andrew Lanza (R-Staten Island) declined to run because he didn’t want to be away from his young family, and yesterday said that Powers’ death didn’t alter his thinking.

“I made the decision for all the right reasons,” Lanza said. “This doesn’t change the reasons why.”

“Nothing’s changed for me,” said Councilman James Oddo (R-Mid-Island), who passed on the congressional race in order to focus on a 2009 run for borough president. “What I said a month or so ago still rings true.”

District Attorney Daniel Donovan as well as County Clerk Stephen Fiala, a former South Shore City Councilman, each said last month that they would not run for the seat.

It is believed that Fossella, who announced last month that he would not seek re-election, will remain on the sidelines.

This has to be one of the most unusual races of the year, so sa the least and anything can happen, but the picture seems to go from bad to worse for the Republicans.

Shocking news from the NY-13, Daily Kos and The Albany Project are reporting coverage from the NY Daily News that Republican Frank Powers has died of an apparent heart attack.

GOP and law enforcement sources confirmed Powers, 68, a retired Wall Street executive and MTA board member, died at his Annfield Court home on Staten Island.

“We’re back to square one in terms of finding a candidate,” said one obviously shaken Staten Island Republican. “You go from the bizarre to the surreal around here.”

UPDATE: Powers’ family issued the following statement:

“Our dad Frank passed away early this morning. As you can imagine, this is a difficult time for our family. We would appreciate privacy and time as we make the necessary arrangements.”

“We shall have more information when final arrangesments have been made. We thank you for your kindness and cooperation and ask you to keep our dad and family in your prayers.”

It goes without saying that my condolances go out to the family, however the political reamificatios are huge if local Republicans can leverage is memory to recruit a stronger candidate. Stay tuned.

You might recall that after Republicans lost three out of four of their vacant House seats earlier this year, Stuart Rothenberg tried to reassure them and told the everything was going to be ok (“There there, you just had some bad nominees”). So I guess it comes as no surprise that when he comes across a Republican who can actuslly walk and chew gum at the same time, he went absolutely orgasmic, according to the Washngton Post’s Chris Cilizza.

Minnesota’s 3rd (Open seat, R): There’s no tougher grader of candidates for Congress than Stu Rothenberg. So when Stu praises a candidate, we listen. Of Republican Erik Paulsen, Stu wrote: “I wouldn’t say my interview with Erik Paulsen went well. I’d say it was spectacular.” (Stu’s column at Roll Call is subscriber-only.) WOW. Paulsen, a sitting state senator, has drawn similar reviews from Republican strategists who believe he is one of the most able candidates they have fielded this cycle. (The Fix has not yet met him — hint, hint.) Democrats nominated Ashwin Madia, an Iraq vet and first-time candidate.

I’ll leave it up to those of you in Minnesota to tell me how good Paulsen is, but this year it may not matter. From what I have seen about the district, it looks tailer-made for a strong Obama showing and a flip from red to blue. And Rothenberg better realize that just because the guy impressed him at a DC cocktail party, it doesn’t mean he will have much of a chance in November.

You know a politician is in trouble when the people around him begin to walk away. And in the case of Ted Stevens, they’re walking away fast. Such is the case in Alaska where the state’s AFL-CIO has endorsed Stevens’ opponent for the first time in decades, according to Roll Call (subscription only).

Bucking tradition, the Alaska AFL-CIO has endorsed Sen. Ted Stevens’ (R-Alaska) opponent for the first time in recent history.

In what the union described as an unusually early decision, the 60,000-member organization voted this week to endorse Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) instead.

Alaska AFL-CIO President Vince Beltrami said the union endorsed Stevens in all of his re-election campaigns in recent memory, though Stevens had either a minimal or token challenger in many of those campaigns.

“My sense, having been a 20-year resident of the state, is that he’s not been not endorsed for decades,” Beltrami said. “So this is a significant departure.

Apparently the union has had a tradition of supporting Republicans in the state. They officially endorsed Don Young in the same meeting. Therefore, it must be a considerable measure how weak Stevens is and how likely they beleive Mark Begich will win. I’m starting to feel very confident about this race.

I hate Robert Novak, but he has useful connections to the GOP. And in this week’s email update, New Mexico Republicans are nothing by grim over the idea of trying to retain Pete Domenici’s seat, especially with a poll like the one he sites.

Udall is a well-known and well-liked politician who taps perfectly into the environmentalist zeitgeist of the state. His liberal base is large and energetic while Pearce’s conservative base is much smaller. Bush hangs like a rain cloud over the GOP here, and McCain might not bring any coattails.

It’s believable then when one New Mexico Republican tells us of a poll showing Udall up by 31 points.

I think we can put this one to bed.

[UPDATE]

As a bonus, Novak also covered the NM-01 race.

Considering only the candidates, White has the edge, but the political landscape seriously favors Heinrich. Bush’s name and the GOP brand are dirt in New Mexico. Tom Udall is likely to dominate the Senate race. In Albuquerque at least, Obama enthusiasm could drive up Democratic turnout, while luke- warmness about McCain could suppress GOP turnout. Domenici won’t be able to help White, while Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D) could be on hand to boost all of the Democratic candidates.

Because we expect a strong Democratic tide, White’s strengths look likely to be wiped out by a Democratic surge. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

Sometimes a poll just speaks for itself

Democrat Mark Warner has widened his lead against Republican Jim Gilmore in the race for Virginia’s senate seat. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Warner earning 60% of the vote while Gilmore attracts 33%.

Last month, Warner enjoyed an eighteen-point lead. This represents the sixth consecutive survey to find Warner leading by double-digits, as well as his strongest lead to date. Before falling back in this survey, Gilmore had consistently polled between 37% and 39% percent. Rasmussen Markets data gives Warner an 89.9% chance of winning this race in November (results updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).

Warner’s favorability ratings have also improved. The Democrat is viewed favorably by 70% of Virginia voters and unfavorably by 24%. Gilmore’s numbers are 46% favorable, 42% unfavorable.

I cannot recall a time when a Senate candidate lifted the rest of the ticket, but with numbers like those, you have to wonder what kind of impact he may have on the presidential, VA-11 and VA-02 elections. How blue can VA get?