Author: RandySF

Several polls taken right over the weeks after the North Carolina primary show that the race for the senate has reached the top tier. now is as good a time as any to help me raise the maximum single donation for Kay Hagan on my Turn Carolina Blue page.

We have a chance to turn out Elizabeth Dole and turn North Carolina Blue. With Dole’s weakness, Hagan’s unexpected stregnth and Barack Obama at the top of the ticket and your help, we can make it happen. Help me raise $2,300, the equivalent of a maximum single donation, for Kay Hagan’s campaign and we can put and end to the legacy of Jesse Helms. Thank you very much for your help.

Most of us do not have $2,300 to throw around, but together we can. This year we can end the Jesse Helms legacy and Dole family dynasty in one shot. Please help and spread the word. Thanks!

Like many Americans, I am in the process of building a stock portfolio to help invest in me, my family and my son’s future. But I also want to invest in my country. I am building a portfolio of five House districts to cotribute $50 each month (or $25 if I change my find). The district are based on the following criteria:

1. It is currently occupied by a Republican.

2. One district per region.

3. Rated tossup by the Cook Political Report, a typically conservative analystical piece.

4. Must be a true tossup. VA-11 is not one of them.

5. Must be in a relatively inexpensive district. I will leave NY-13 to the big boys.

6. Must have a nominee or very likely nominee.

Thus far I have chosen the following districts:

1. West/Southwest: Betsy Markey in the CO-04.

2. Northwest: Darcy Burner in the WA-08.

3. Northeast: Eric Massa in the NY-29.

I need help for the final two. In the Midwest, I am split between Dan Seals in the IL-10, Mark Schaur in the MI-07 and John Boccieri in the OH-16. I am skipping OH-15 because it is a bit pricey. Also, I am trying to decide how likely Paul Carmouche will be the nominee in the LA-04. Your help or other suggestions would be much appreciated. Thanks.

It must be a bad time to be a Colorado Republican. Barack Obama is in good shape to carry the state’s electoral votes, Mark Udall is looking more and more likely to pick up the vacant Senate seat, and now, everyone is becoming bearish about Marilynne Musgave’s chances of re-election.

The bad news comes from two sources. First, the website Coloradopols.com that Republicans at the recently held State Convention have already given up on her.

Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave was a dead woman walking on Saturday. Supporters of Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, as well as Rep. Cory Gardner, were telling delegates that should Musgrave lose to Democrat Betsy Markey this November, they will both immediately announce their candidacies. Both were privately telling delegates that Musgrave is a lost cause.

Secondly come details of why the Cook Political Report has shifted their classification from “Lean Republican” to “Tossup”, as reported by PolitickerCO.

House editor David Wasserman explained in the Cook Political Report that Democratic candidate Betsy Markey “has finally gotten her campaign operation into shape” against incumbent U.S. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R-Fort Morgan).

Democratic strategists, Wasserman added, “also say she carries less baggage than 2006 nominee Angie Paccione, who came within three points of defeating Musgrave.”

Another factor, Wasserman noted, is that presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama stands to do very well among CO-4 voters.

Meanwhile, private polls show Musgrave is “badly struggling,” Wasserman said in his explanation.

It’s worth noting that Musgove’s campaign would not return any calls. Short of Obama getting elected, nothing would please me more than knocking Musgrove off. Go, Betsy, go.

A new poll has just been released by the Bob Lord campaign indicating that incumbent John Shadegg is vulnerable. However, a lot of info is missing, according to Roll Call.

Polling memos are only as valuable as the numbers in them. A May 27 Bennett, Petts & Normington memo in Arizona’s 3rd district claims that Rep. John Shadegg (R) is “extremely vulnerable” but provides few and flimsy numbers from the actual survey to support the claim.

The May 18-20 survey, conducted for Shadegg’s Democratic challenger, attorney Bob Lord, showed the Congressman with a 31 percent re-elect number and 75 percent name identification….

It’s the numbers missing from the polling memo that tell the real story. The initial head-to-head ballot between Shadegg and Lord is nowhere to be found. Want Shadegg’s job approval number? Won’t find it here. The favorable/unfavorable numbers for the candidates (including Lord’s name ID) are not included either.

The poll included a bonus on the presidential race that may or may not be accurate.

The survey (and memo) also showed a presidential matchup, with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) leading Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) 48 percent to 43 percent in a district President Bush won with 58 percent in 2004. If McCain is underperforming Bush by 10 points in Arizona, Republicans should brace themselves for an electoral massacre that will make 2006 look like a birthday party.

Now that everyone acknowledges that Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, Charlie Cook has shifted ten distric rating, and boy are they huge.

Primary Aftermath: Race Ratings Change in Ten Districts: House Editor David Wasserman releases the latest updates for districts in which primaries were held on Tuesday, and explains what the conclusion of the Democratic presidential nomination fight may mean in several other districts across the country. We are changing our race ratings in ten districts where we believe Democratic chances of taking Republican-held seats have increased. With these changes, the GOP occupies 21 of the 27 seats now listed in the Toss Up column.

CA-04- OPEN (Doolittle)- Solid Republican to Likely Republican

CO-04- Marilyn Musgrave- Lean Republican to Toss Up

CT-04- Chris Shays- Lean Republican to Toss Up

IL-10- Mark Kirk- Lean Republican to Toss Up

NM-02- OPEN (Pearce)- Likely Republican to Lean Republican

NY-29- Randy Kuhl- Lean Republican to Toss Up

NC-08- Robin Hayes- Lean Republican to Toss Up

OH-01- Steve Chabot- Lean Republican to Toss Up

VA-02- Thelma Drake- Likely Republican to Lean Republican

WA-08- Dave Reichert- Lean Republican to Toss Up

Some like CO-04 and CT-04 were long overdue, but the one that stands out is OH-01. If we can take out someone like Chabot, we’ll have a VERY big night.

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Over the past few months, I continuously pinched myself as the race for the House of Representatives developed. Recruitments, polls and Republican primary results against incumbenets such as Indiana’s Dan Burton sent signal after signal that we could be in for another big year. Now, a Democracy Corps poll as reported at Talking Points Memo indicate to pollster Stan Greenberg that we could be in for an even bigger year than 2006.  

Are House Democrats on the verge of an unprecedented second “wave election” in a row — one that could win them up to another 45 House seats?

That’s the astonishing finding of a new survey by the Democracy Corps, the Democratic polling firm run by Stan Greenberg and James Carville.

The new survey polled 1,600 people across 45 GOP-held districts, ranging from the competitive Tier 1 to harder-to-reach Tier 2 with the named incumbents and their opponents used instead of generic match-ups. The aggregate results showed the Democratic candidate winning the Tier 1 races 51%-42%, and the edging out the GOP 48%-45% in the Tier 2 match-ups, though they trailed 43%-51% in the “rural/small town” category.

During a conference call with reporters, Greenberg was bullish on the Dems’ chances this Fall, predicting a second wave on top of the one from 2006: “It’s certainly reasonable to think that of these 45 seats, half these seats could go to the Democrat if the trend holds.”

In June I think it is a  stretch to be so bulling and cling to my prediction of about 20-21 seats, but I am doing so in the face of evidence to the contrary. Certainly we have the money, candidates and energy to blow this election wide open. Let’s make it happen.

[UPDATE]

In my excitement, I missed where Greenberg suggested HALF of the 45 could flip. Regardless, we’re in for a big year.

Take off another name on the list of potential Republican candidates. The Staten Island Advance is reporting that County Clerk Stephan Fiala will take a pass on an increasingly unatractive seat.

Republican County Clerk Stephen Fiala has taken his name out of the running to replace Rep. Vito Fossella (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn) in the House of Representatives.

“My best judgment has led me to the decision not to run for Congress,” Fiala told the Advance.

Fiala said he was concerned about his ability to raise money for the race and looking down the road, said he believed that the congressional district would be redrawn to favor a Democrat after the 2010 census.

I guess he expects us to win the State Senate, too. I’m not sure if this is a big loss for the GOP. State Senator Lanza has not declared his intentions and Fiala may just be getting out of the way. At any rate, this is becoming a race of attrition. Who will be left standing?

This is hot off the presses. A new poll of the MD-01 race shows Democrat Frank Kratovil is withing strking distance of his Republican opponent, Andy Harris, who beat Wayne Gilcrest in a primary back in February.

As Democrats reassess their chances in once-safe Republican districts after their successes in a series of special elections this spring, one place they may take a closer look at is Maryland’s Eastern Shore-based 1st district.

In that race, Queen Anne’s County State’s Attorney Frank Kratovil (D) has pulled within single digits of state Sen. Andy Harris (R), according to a month-old Democratic poll obtained by Roll Call today.

The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group poll of 400 likely voters gave Harris 43 percent of the vote and Kratovil 34 percent, with 23 percent undecided. The poll was conducted April 23-24 and had a 5-point margin of error.

The numbers got even tighter among voters who were familiar with the backgrounds of both candidates.

I’m still digesting this, so I will have more to say on the thread later.

Things are moving VERY rapidly in the NY-13 since Fossella’s annoucement that he is not running for re-election. It was reported earlier than Mike Cusick and Mike McMahon are looking at the race and today also comes word that Diane Savino will not likely get in.

Van Hollen and his lieutenant at the DCCC, Rep. Steve Israel (D-L.I.) spoke with four Democrats either already running or considering jumping into the race, including Staten Island Assemblyman Mike Cusick, Staten Island Councilman Mike McMahon, Brooklyn Councilman Domenic Recchia and 2006 candidate Steve Harrison. Another Democrat whose name had been mentioned, State Sen. Diane Savino, has indicated to party officials she likely won’t jump into the crowded field.

Cusick, McMahon and Recchia are also holding private talks among themselves. “The discussions are about what will take to win and who would be the best candidate who can win in November,” a well-placed source tells The Mouth.

I am happy to see that there is so is so much coordination on our side so as to avoid a costly primary. Hopefully we’ll have our guy soon.

With Vito Fossella out of the race, the NY-13 district is becoming more and more attractive to some of the stronger potential Democratic candidates. According to the New York Times Assemblyman Mike Cusick and City Councilman Michael McMahon are expressing their clear interest in running.

Shortly after Mr. Fossella announced his decision Tuesday, two Democrats from Staten Island said they were interested in the seat: Councilman Michael E. McMahon, who has represented northern Staten Island since 2002, and Michael Cusick, a state assemblyman who represents an area in the center of the island.

“I am having earnest discussions with the other folks who are interested and the county leaders in Staten Island and Brooklyn,” Mr. McMahon said Tuesday. “I’m hopeful that we can come to a decision very quickly. Because of the short time frame, it’s important that we unite around a candidate rather than having a primary fight.”

Similarly, Mr. Cusick said that “ultimately, the goal is to win in November” and that “it would be preferable not to have a primary and for the Democrats to work things out.”

THe article says nothing about Dianne Savino entering the race. It looks like a good situation for the DCCC. Their top two recruits clearly want to avoid a tough primary and are willing to sit and work things out, although I don’t know if Harrison shares that sentiment. Of the two, I think Cusick may be the stronger. He is an honorary member of the Fraternal Order of Police, represents part of Staten Island and his ties to Charlie Schumer will make it easy to raise a lot of money in a short time. Savino may be stronger on paper but her running would put her state senate seat at risk when we are trying to flip the chamber. Hopefully, everything will work itself out soon.