Author: RandySF

Things look increasingly good for Barack Obama and Kay Hagan in North Carolina, but the thing that jumped out at me this morning came from Stuart Rothenberg in his assessment of the senate race.

Dole is increasingly regarded as political roadkill by campaign observers, but reports of her electoral demise may be greatly exaggerated.

Yes, Dole doesn’t have the financial advantage that she should at this time, hasn’t returned to her state often enough, and for too long failed to appreciate the danger that she was in. While her poll numbers were good initially, her popularity nose-dived after Democratic attacks on her ineffectiveness in the Senate.

But the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s independent expenditure effort has begun in the Tar Heel State, and Dole’s campaign has finally become more aggressive. Challenger Kay Hagan remained unscathed (and undefined) until recently, and the GOP attacks are likely to help Dole improve her position in the contest.

Still, that only means that the Republican Senator is in a dogfight and still seriously vulnerable, hardly the position Dole expected to find herself in. Of course, her state is better for a Republican than Oregon is for Smith, and unlike in Oregon, Republicans are only now starting to brand Dole’s Democratic challenger as a liberal big taxer.

This is the first time I had heard of anyone considering Dole to be in such bad shape polls notwithstanding. I was wondering if anyone else is hearing the same thing.

We all know that Texas will likely go red on election night and deliver her electoral votes to John McCain. Many of us also know that Dallas County was, for many years, the heart of the Republican takeover of the Lone Star State. Things began changing two years ago when Democrats swept county office races with the help of voter dissatisfaction and a kickass GOTV operation. Now, you might think that, in a presiential year, Dallas Democrats might be on defense, but not so. According to the Dallas Morning News, no less that four Republican judges have either leaft the Republican Party, or are preparing to leave.

As Texas Republicans gather for their national convention, GOP members back in Dallas are preparing to bolt the party.

Monday, Dallas County Court at Law Judge Mark Greenberg plans to announce at a Democratic Party Labor Day picnic that he’s leaving the Republican Party, said people from both parties familiar with his decision. The judge, who next faces re-election in 2010, could not be reached.

At least two other judges are expected to leave the GOP before November.

“They are looking at the numbers and the demographics and realizing that they can’t win by running as Republicans,” said Darlene Ewing, chairwoman of the Dallas County Democratic Party.

Last week, Dallas County Republicans lost another when county Criminal Court Judge Elizabeth Crowder said she’s switching to the Democrats.

It’s the latest political shift since the 2004 elections, when Democrats started to make inroads in county offices held firmly by Republicans since the Reagan years.

Since last year, five Republicans have defected, including state District Judge John Creuzot, who presides over the county’s felony courts, and state Rep. Kirk England of Grand Prairie. Judge Creuzot and Mr. England face Republican opposition in November.

There is a debate in political circles as to whether partisan change begins at the top or the bottom. Some argue that people first start voting for a particular party at the top of the ticket and eventually work their way down. Others contend that it begins on the local level and works its way up as lower-tier recruits run for office.

In the South, people started voting Republican for president, but still elected Democrats to Congress and local office. At the same time, local politicians started chaging their affiliation from Democrat to Republican before climbing their way to the top. In Texas, it’s beginning at the local level. County Republicans in Dallas and Harris Counties are reading the hadwriting on the wall and understand that voters are losing faith in their ability to govern. As a matter of fact, Barack Obama’s ativities in Texas are not about winning the state, but helping Democrats build on the gains they made in the State House and perhaps even take it over.

It’s slow, painstaking work. Winning judgeships is not as exciting as winning a senate seat, but this is exactly how Karl Rove started the party takeover, and perhaps this is where we begin the long march back. My eyes are upon you, Texas.

Things have changed around a little bit in my Senate rankings. But instead of an analysis of which seats are more likely or less likely to switch from red to blue, it has simply become now just a matter of which seats are more likely to flip.

1. Virginia: No Change. There is just nothing more to say here than Mark Warner gave a very senatorial speech last Tuesday night.

2. New Mexico: Pearce has stronger Republican backing which was reflected in recent polling. Too little too late, it’s in the bag.

3. Alaska: This one moves up from fifth place. Stevens was already in enough trouble prior to the indictment, but now he’s doomed. Now that he won the primary, exoneration, removal from the ballot or Palin’s selection can save the Republicans now.

4. New Hampshire: No change. Shaheen’s continued strong showing in polls tells me there is a deep dissatisfaction with Sununu that goes beyond the Republican brand. I’m not sure even McCain can save him now.

5. Colorado: Previously third. Even though Shaffer seems to be on his feet now, the only reason that this race dropped is the fact that Republicans grew so much weaker in Alaska and New Hampshire. Colorado will be hard fought on all levels, but Mark Udall remains the favorite.

6. Oregon: No change. The fact that Gordon Smith has attached himself so closely to Obama tell me that his polling is showing a very strong blue trend. Will he be washed out? Stay tuned.

7. Minnesota: Al Franken is showing signs of life. He’s pounding away on Norm Coleman and it’s taking effect.

8. North Carolina: Elizabeth Dole is showing the political community that she has a glass jaw. Never before in her life did she have to fight for anything and got by against a weak opponent in 2002. Kay Hagan is no wilting flower and the DSCC is putting up the cash to back her up.

9. Mississppi B: What does it say about this year when the top 9 seats on my list are true pickup opportunities for us? Republicans are fighting deep in red territory now and even though Musgrove has faded a bit, this one is going right down to the wire.

10. Kentucky: McConnell knows he is in for a race.

After looking over these seats, I am now revising my projection to a net gain of 6-8 seats.

As I have been execting, Kay Hagan is closing in on Elizabeth Dole in a new Survey USA poll.

In an election for United States Senator in North Carolina today, 08/12/08, 12 weeks till votes are counted, incumbent Republican US Senator Elizabeth Dole edges Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan 46% to 41%, according to this latest SurveyUSA pre-election tracking poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh. But: Libertarian Christopher Cole gets 7% today, which, when combined with another 5% of voters who are undecided, makes the Senate race today fascinating to watch and difficult to handicap. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released four weeks ago, on 07/15/08, which did not include Cole by name, Hagan is flat, Dole is down. Cole gets 11% of male votes today, siphoning key votes Dole needs to win. Cole gets 12% of young votes today, siphoning key votes Hagan needs to win. Cole gets 9% of the white vote today, cutting Dole’s lead from 30+ points to 20 points. Though Dole holds 82% of the GOP base today, that’s down from 90% in July. 1 in 5 NC Independents today vote for Cole, which takes key votes away from both candidates. Dole is running for her second term in the United States Senate. Hagan is serving her fifth term in the North Carolina State Senate. Support for 3rd-Party candidates often collapses as Election Day nears, and that may or may not happen in North Carolina in 2008. Today, 12 weeks out, voters with a message they want to deliver to both Republicans and Democrats are using Cole as their protest vehicle.

This was taken before Kay launched her ads, which I expect to pull her even closer.

This cannot be good news for Ann Northrup.

Republican Anne Northup, trying to regain her 3rd District congressional seat, has parted ways with her campaign manager, Scott Will, after disagreements that made it difficult for them to work together.

Anne and I have different personalities that really didn’t mesh real well,” Will said. “Anne is a great candidate, and I had a great experience here but it was just time to move on.”

Ted Jackson, Northup’s campaign chairman, said the issues appeared to “manifest themselves over a long period of time” and the two finally agreed yesterday that it wasn’t going to work.

Translation: She is losing. Look, you rarely fire your campaign manager when things are going well, even if you have “stylistic differences” (reminds me of the term “creative differences”). This is a bad time for her to be in disary. Perhaps she should realize it is also a bad time to be a Republican.

For all the talk of “Red State Missouri”, Democrats did not do too shabbily when it came time to turn out and vote in the key state and congressional primaries last night.

First, if you look at the vote for governor Republican voting in a hotly contested party primary, only outperformed Jay Nixon and a minor opponent by 38,081 votes. In the Republican leaning MO-09 where both parties had contested primaries, Republicans outperformed Democrats by 3,312 votes.

The most important result, in my opinion, came out of the MO-06 where, with only 84% of the Democratic vote reporting, was running ahead of Sam Graves by 578 votes. Does primary turnout necessarily predict general election results? Not always. But it is a good measure of enthusiasm of party voters and, and when you take into account a number of factors, it looks like it is on our side.

I keep pinching myself over and over, but a new poll reported by the subsciption-only Roll Call has Mark Begich opening a huge lead over Ted Stevens while “Tubes” maintains a strong lead in the primary.

Indicted Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) has dropped far behind in the general election but maintains his lead in this month’s primary, according to polling data from both before and after the Alaska legend was indicted on seven felony counts earlier this week.

The Ivan Moore Research poll taken July 30-31 showed Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) leading Stevens, 56 percent to 35 percent, with more than 5 percent undecided.

A survey by the same pollster from July 18-22 – before the indictments were handed down – showed Begich leading Stevens, 51 percent to 43 percent.

The earlier poll had a sample size of 504 registered voters statewide and a margin of error of 4.4 points. The later survey, taken just over a day after news of Stevens’ indictments broke, polled 413 registered voters with a 4.8-point margin of error.

The poll also showed an 11-point drop in Stevens’ approval rating: From the first survey to the second survey, the percentage of people who had a positive impression of Stevens decreased from 55 percent to 44 percent.

Though Stevens faces six opponents in the Aug. 26 Republican primary, the poll showed him with a handsome lead over businessman Dave Cuddy, his chief competition. In the same July 30-31 survey, which polled 219 Republicans about the primary, Stevens scored 59 percent and Cuddy had 19 percent with about 20 percent undecided.

What can I say other than that we are watching our best-case scenario playing out right before our eyes.

The good news keeps rolling in today, and it looks like Linda Stender may be given a leg up by Republican Bridgewater Councilman Michael Hsing who has announced his intention to run as an independent in the NJ-07.

A one-time contender for the Republican nod for the seat, Bridgewater Township Councilman Michael Hsing, 53, now says he would be a better choice for voters than either state Sen. Leonard Lance, R-Clinton Township, or Assemblywoman Linda Stender, D-Fanwood, the two major-party nominees.

“As an independent, I shed the baggage on my back, I can do things without being pulled by the party,” Hsing said in an interview Friday, July 25. “That sets me apart from the two candidates. They will always have that baggage on their back.”

Democrat Linda Stender already has a lot of cash on hand and the Republicans cannot be happy.

Based on today’s news of Ted Steven’s indictment and the current GOP field. Congressional Quarterly has changed their rating of the race to “Lean Dem.”

The Democrats’ recruit to take on Stevens, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, found himself on even stronger footing July 29 when Stevens was indicted for allegedly concealing benefits he received from employees of Veco Corp., an Alaskan oil services company. Stevens, 84, who has served in office longer than any GOP senator in history, faced generally easy re-election contests throughout more than six terms in office, but his connection to the Veco Corp. scandal has left him with little hope of regaining his stature in the state prior to this year’s elections. The primary is August 26, and other Republican contenders include David Cuddy, a wealthy real estate developer who lost to Stevens in the 1996 GOP primary after spending more than $1 million in personal funds, and five lesser-known candidates including Republican minister Gerald L. Heikes.

I tend to agree. The GOP brand is now mud in Alaska. Gov. Palin has a 6 month child with Down’s syndrome and is not likely going to want to commute between Alaska and DC. Lt. Gov. has committed himself to the House race. And surprisingly the Republican bench in the state is very weak, as though they expected Stevens and Young to rule forever. Vic Vickers and Dave Cuddy each have a lot of money and could just as easily spend it against each other as spend it against Stevens. Would I prefer to run against Stevens? Yes. But regardless, Mark Begich now runs with a leg up in the race.

Charlie Cook’s folks have just released new ratings for four key senate races. Thay are as follows:

Oregon: Lean R to Toss-Up

North Carolina: Likely R to Lean R

New Mexico: Toss-Up to Lean D

Kentucky: Solid R to Likely R

The blue bus keeps on rolling. I’ll keep you updated on any further changes for today.