Author: RandySF

For a state that John McCain is expected to win handily, the Republicans sure look like they are in trouble. Democrats are poised to picked up the AZ-01 Congressional seat and yesterday, the Arizona Republic reports that there is a very good chance that Democrats will take control of the State House of Representatives for the first time in 44 years.

One of the state’s leading Republican strategists warned Monday that the GOP is in “acute jeopardy” of losing control of the state House – and maybe even the Senate – in an election that could be brutal for the party.

“The situation is dire and getting worse by the day,” Lincoln Strategy Group political consultant Nathan Sproul wrote in a four-page memo addressed to every GOP legislative candidate.

As subtle as a fire alarm, the memo comes less than a month before the Nov. 4 election and cautions incumbents and newbies alike that “the Republican Party is standing on the cliff of minority status.”

“The doomsday scenario for Republicans is no longer a distant possibility,” Sproul added.

He concluded his memo by saying that the danger of losing the majority status was “real and imminent.”

“The Democrats are well-funded, organized and hungry,” Sproul wrote. “It is every man and woman for himself or herself. Good luck. You’re going to need it.”

Democrats currently hold 27 seats to the Republicans’ 33 seats, meaning a four seat swing will win it for us. There is no need to ephazise the importance of legislative seats here as we followed special elections for the past 2 years. We also know that, as with the case of Barack Obaam, legislatures are incubators for future members of Congress, governors, and possibly presidents. If you are in AZ, do what you can to make it happen.

Word broke out late last night that the NRCC may be scaling back or pulling out of the MN-03 race, according to Minnestota Public Radio.

I checked the ad buys at WCCO-TV today and found that the National Republican Congressional Committee has canceled a week of ads that were scheduled to run on Republican Erik Paulsen’s behalf.

The public file at WCCO shows that the NRCC cancled 66 spots that were reserved between October 14th and October 20th. The political committee still has $216,450 in time reserved from October 21st to election day on Paulsen’s behalf. The NRCC has also reserved time at KSTP, KMSP and KARE. No word yet on whether the ad buys were scaled back at those stations. The NRCC has been forced to play defense this year so the money reserved for Paulsen may be going to an incumbent in a tough race.

Meanwhile, the NRCC will also run ads on GOP Rep. Michele Bachmann’s behalf. The NRCC has reserved time on Bachmann’s behalf to run between October 20th and election day (at a cost of about $126k) at WCCO.

Still trying to determine if the NRCC money reserved at the other stations is time for Bachman and Paulsen or just Paulsen. They reserved about $1.1 million at the four stations earlier this year.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has reserved $1.9 million in ads at the four stations. The DCCC started running ads on September 16th and have time booked through election day.

As you already know by this ad and this ad, a lot of the DCCC’s efforts are focused on the match-up between DFLer Ashwin Madia and Republican Erik Paulsen in the 3rd.

It’s too soon to say what all this means. It is possible that they are going to let Freedom’s Crotch pick up the slack. Either way, this is not good news for Paulsen.

Sometimes a story just speaks for itself. This is one of them

A top official in the McCain camp told us Sen. Elizabeth Dole is virtually certain to lose in conservative North Carolina….

Top Republicans say they have no hope for Dole in North Carolina. “There’s no point in even counting the votes,” said a top McCain official.

Republican hopelessness: Priceless.

I just received a series of email alerts from the Cook Political Report. They read as follows.

KY-SEN: Likely Republican to Lean Republican

PA-03: Lean Republican to Toss-up

NM-02: Lean Republican to Toss-up

MI-09: Lean Republican to Toss-up

KY-02: Likely Republican to Lean Republican

FL-21: Lean Republican to Toss-up

Seems to me that the biggest news in this batch come from KY-SEN, NM-02 and MI-09.

Bonus: Cook moved FL-PRES, NC-PRES and IN-PRES from Lean Republican to Toss-up.

This afternoon, I received an email alert that the prosecution may finish its presentation of evidence in the trial of Ted Stevens on Thursday, indicating to me that the end of proceedings may be near. If that is the case, that leads me to ask what happens next after a verdict is handed down.

1. Stevens is acquitted:

Stevens will have time to head up to Alaska and make thecase that he has done much for residents and deserves re-election. He may have the benefit of Sarah Palin on the presidential ticket, but will not have her endorsement. Can he pull it out or would he still be tainted?

2. Stevens is convicted but still runs:

A conviction will force him to resign form the senate but not to remove his name from the ballot, assuming he appeals the case. If he remains on the ballot, it really will be over and the race will rank right up there with Virginia.

3. Stevens is convicted and drops out:

I do not know what the deadline to have your name removed from the ballot and replaced. Even if h can, does Parnell run? And if Parnell runs, can he ride Palin’s coattails to the senate?

What do you think?

Some people like Chuck Todd, others don’t. I remember his days with the Hotline and always found him to be a straight shooter when talking about House, Senate and gubernatorial races. And that is why I found this article in today’s First Read so interesting. Even though he is not declaring her dead, it does not sound as though he likes her chances.

Down the ballot in North Carolina, the Democratic hit that Elizabeth Dole spent just 20 days in the Tar Heel State in 2005 and 13 days there in 2006 might very well have been the final nail in her coffin in her race against Dem challenger Kay Hagan. Could the end of the Bush era also bring us the end of the Dole era? There has been a Dole in the Senate for nearly 50 straight years — and either a Bush or a Dole on the national ticket going back to ’72. Will Liddy Dole’s potential defeat signal the true end of the two most powerful Republican families of the last 50 years?

I am sure Bob and Elizabeth Dole love each other very much, but s far as their record in the Senate, she cannot hold a candle to her husband’s, which is remarkable by any standard. North Carolina elected Jesse Helms for many years and they gave us Faircloth and Burr as well, so I would not write off any Republican, but it’s fair to say Dole is in a lot of trouble and fast running out of time. If she does not find a magic bullet soon, she won’t have to step inside North Carolina ever again.

Stuart Rothenbergis probably the most conservative prognosticator when he classifies House, Senate and Gubernatorial races, which is why it’s big news that he has moved the Oregon Senate Race to “Lean Takeover” from “Toss-up”. He also did the same for Colorado and moved Lousiana and Kentucky to “Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party”. Overall, four seats moved in our direction. Here is the summary below.

NOTE: In another columnhttp://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/09/kentucky-senate-ratings-change-favors.html], said he would not argue with anyone who calls Kentucky a “toss-up”.

Here are our latest Senate ratings. Our latest estimate is a Democratic gain of 5-8 seats.

# = Moved benefiting Democrats

* = Moved benefiting Republicans

Likely Takeover (2 R, 0 D)

NM Open (Domenici, R)

VA Open (Warner, R)

Lean Takeover (4 R, 0 D)

Smith (R-OR) #

Stevens (R-AK)

Sununu (R-NH)

CO Open (Allard, R) #

Toss-Up (1 R, 0 D)

Dole (R-NC)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 1 D)

Coleman (R-MN)

Landrieu (D-LA) #

McConnell (R-KY) #

Wicker (R-MS)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 0 D)

Collins (R-ME)

Currently Safe (12 R, 11 D)

ID Open (Craig, R)

NE Open (Hagel, R)

Alexander (R-TN)

Barrasso (R-WY)

Chambliss (R-GA)

Cochran (R-MS)

Cornyn (R-TX)

Enzi (R-WY)

Graham (R-SC)

Inhofe (R-OK)

Roberts (R-KS)

Sessions (R-AL)

Baucus (D-MT)

Biden (D-DE)

Durbin (D-IL)

Harkin (D-IA)

Johnson (D-SD)

Kerry (D-MA)

Lautenberg (D-NJ)

Levin (D-MI)

Pryor (D-AR)

Reed (D-RI)

Rockefeller (D-WV)

Bobby Bright is by no means my favorite kind of Democrat, but he sure knows how to turn conservative groups against each other. The Politico is reporting that Bobby Bright was able to use Freedom’s Watch’s attacks nto an opportunity to get the Christian Coalition to his side.

They might ordinarily find themselves rooting for the same candidates, but the Christian Coalition is no fan of Freedom’s Watch and its major funder, casino magnate Sheldon Adelson.

Last week, Freedom’s Watch launched a new ad campaign slamming Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright for what it said was a record of raising taxes. Bright fired back with his own ad citing his “conservative Christian values,” implicitly in contrast with those of Freedom’s Watch and Adelson, who is Jewish.

The Christian Coalition takes issue with Adelson, who made billions — he’s the country’s fifteenth-richest man, according to this year’s Forbes 400 list — in the casino business, with properties in Las Vegas and Macau. The Venetian Macau is what sticks in the craw of social conservatives. “Where Adelson has placed his treasure makes it quite clear where his heart is: in gambling and in backing the regime in China that persecutes Christians,” Alabama Christian Coalition president Randy Brinson said in a statement.

The coalition also invokes disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who helped Native American tribes get approval for new casinos, often aiding his clients by funneling money to Christian organizations that would then rally in opposition to other tribes’ efforts. “We’re tired of the Abramoffs and Adelsons of this world using their ill-gotten gains to try to buy elections and influence,” Brinson said.

Bright, running as a conservative Democrat, actually attends the same church as his opponent, State Rep. Jay Love. The Christian Coalition called on Love to repudiate the Freedom’s Watch ads as well.

Yes it is very unseemly, but then so are the Repubcians, Freedom’s Watch and the Republicans. And it is a rare Democrat who knows how to turn the GOP’s factions against each other.

My latest update is ready, with the big news being Oregon and North Carolina.

1. Virginia: No change. I have nothing more to say about this one.

2. New Mexico: No change. The NRSC pulled the plug on this one.

3. Alaska: No change. Things look grim for Uncle Ted. The Federal criminal trial is underway and witnesses testified that he was never billed for the work on the house. Palin’s presence will not help either, especially since she threw him and Don Young under the bus. Young’s name on the ballot will be no help either. At this point, I don’t even think a new name on the ballot would help at this point. I think it’s over.

4. Colorado: Previously fifth. Udall’s increasing strength and new tightness in the New Hampshire race bring this up a notch.

5. New Hampshire: Previously fourth. Sununu is showing signs of life, especially with McCain’s strength at the top of the ticket. Shaheen should still win, though.

6. Oregon: No change. Merkley has surged and Gordon Smith is finding himself of trouble. Unless Smith can find a way to change the game, it might be over for him.

7. North Carolina: Previously eighth. This race has really taken off and some operatives are describing Dole as “political road kill”. I suggest everyone contribute to this race and Oregon if you can.

8. Minnesota: Previously seventh. This shifted downward only because of Hagan’s new strength. However, Al Franken has a lot of work to do.

9. Mississippi: No change. Musgrove is still in the hunt.

10. Kentucky: No change. Recent polls have Lunsford getting very close to McConnell. It remains to be seen whether he can keep that momentum up. He certainly has the money to do so. McConnell’s strength in the Bluegrass State has long been overstated by pundits. He has never been loved the way Wendell Ford was and he never had a tough opponent after 1990. I had written this one off because Lunsford did not show much signs of life. The current surge could be due to current conditions rather than the candidate. Still, we have ten races now where the Democrat is either likely to win, or has a good shot.