Author: RandySF

Ladies and gentleman we have another Congressional District now breaking wide open. Accordig to Capitol Weekly, Republicans are sounding alarms that Dana Rohrabacher is in the fight of his life against our own Debbie Cook.

The third contest is in the 46th Congressional District in Orange County, where incumbent Republican Dana Rohrabacher faces Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook.

According to GOP sources, internal polling shows the difference between Rohrabacher and Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach, to be within the margin of error, although Rohrabacher has heavily outspent Cook. Hoffenblum believes Rohrabacher faces “possibly the strongest Democrat to run against him since the current district lines were drawn in 2001.”

I am not aware of any DCCC efforts to help her out and don’t expect the California Democratic Party to get off its ass anytime soon. Debbie Cook is our girl. She is a progressive mayor of Huntington Beach and an environmental attorney (on our side) by trade. I don’t need to remind of what Rohrabacher is. I know we are all nearly tapped out, I dread adding up all the money I gave for this cycle. But she is so close to knocking him off, so close. And wouldn’t it be the sweetest cherry on top to see him go? If you want to know a little more about her, go to her web site and, if you can drop just $5, $10, $25, please do so. It IS an expensive district, but every door hanger and every piece of literature counts. Just imagine how it would feel on November 5 to see Dana gone.

It is beginning to look like the senate race in Alaska may no longer hinge on Ted Stevens’ trial verdict. According to court testimony by his wife, senate staffers handled the privte bills of both the senator and his wife.

This seems to have little to do with the specific charges against Ted Stevens, but Catherine Stevens’ testimony has revealed that the senator used a well paid Senate aide to pay personal credit cards and home utility bills and run other personal errands for the senator and his wife.

Prosecutors in the corruption trial of Stevens have gone on the attack as the senator’s wife heads into her second hour of testimony, accusing the couple of using Senate staff for all sorts of things, like cutting the grass in the D.C. home and paying Nieman Marcus bills for Mrs. Stevens — all out of the Stevens family account.

It’s not unusual for senators to use staff as gophers, including running errands and driving them around town, but the testimony seems designed to show the jury that Stevens and his wife lived a privileged life in which Senate staff were put to use for personal needs.

The aide in question is Barbara Flanders, an aide who made $126,000 as part of Sen. Stevens’ staff in 2007, according to the legislative database legistorm.com

“Didn’t your husband’s staff pay your credit card bills?” lead prosecutor Brenda Morris asked Catherine Stevens. “Did Barbara Flanders pay your Saks Fifth Avenue bills?”

“She could have,” Catherine Stevens said. “She had authority to sign on our accounts.”

Stevens’ explanation is that she and her husband have a joint Senate credit union account for their personal checking, and Flanders was put in charge of personal bills, including paying utilities, insurance and other bills for the chalet in Girdwood, Alaska, that is the subject of this investigation.

Stevens has said she paid every invoice that came to her home as part of the renovations that led to the FBI investigation that has Stevens on trial in federal court.

I know it is not an illegal act to have congressional staffers handle these kinds of errands and it has happened before. But given the heavy stench of corruption that has permiated the state on all levels of government, voters may decide they have had enough of this, whether he is found guilty or not.

We’ve been talking about the $500,000 dropped by the DSCC into Atlants, but according to subcription-only Roll Call, they’re doing more than we originally thought.

As a result, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has begun dumping cash into the race. According to Democratic sources, the DSCC this week gave cash to the state Democratic party to help pay for an ad buy that the state committee would be taking out against Chambliss.

Additionally, the Atlanta Journal Constitution on Wednesday reported the committee had made a $500,000 television ad buy. According to the paper, the DSCC will run ads on five television stations serving the Atlanta area. The ad is scheduled to run 369 times, largely during prime time and newscasts, by next week, the paper reported.

Roll Call did not say how much was transferred to the GA State Party, but it is obvious by now the DSCC takes this race very seriously. Should be a lot of fun!

From Nancy Pelosi

How would you like to defeat a Republican who has spent the past six years trying to write discrimination into our Constitution, privatize Social Security, and block affordable health care for millions of American children? We can do just that in Colorado’s 4th District — but only if we act in the next 72 hours.

Every two years, Republican Congresswoman Marilyn Musgrave becomes more and more vulnerable. This year, we have our best chance to finally win this seat behind Democrat Betsy Markey. Recent polls indicate that Betsy has surged ahead, but the race is about to reach a tipping point.

If we don’t act now, in just 72 hours, Betsy will no longer be able to afford television ads, just as national Republicans are moving in to help Congresswoman Musgrave stay on the air.

If you don’t like Nancy, that’s tough. Betsy i an outstanding Democrat and she is on track to beating Marilyn Musgrave. You want to pass that up?

If Stuart Rothenberg is right, House Democrats are in for another big year like 2006. He now estimates a Democratic gain of 25-30 seats. Here are his newest ratings:

Here are our latest House ratings. Our latest estimate is a Democratic gain of 25-30 seats.

Any seats not listed are currently considered to be at limited risk for the incumbent party. For our race-by-race analysis, you must subscribe to the print edition of the Report.

# = Moved benefiting Democrats

* = Moved benefiting Republicans

^ = Newly added

PURE TOSS-UP (7 R, 5 D)

AL 5 (Open; Cramer, D)

CT 4 (Shays, R) #

FL 16 (Mahoney, D) *

FL 21 (L. Diaz-Balart, R)

LA 6 (Cazayoux, D) #

MI 7 (Walberg, R) #

NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)

NM 2 (Open; Pearce, R) #

NJ 7 (Open; Ferguson, R)

OH 1 (Chabot, R) #

OH 15 (Open; Pryce, R)

PA 11 (Kanjorski, D) *

TOSS-UP/TILT REPUBLICAN (10 R, 0 D)

AL 2 (Open; Everett, R) #

FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart, R) #

IL 10 (Kirk, R) #

KY 2 (Open; Lewis, R) #

LA 4 (Open; McCrery, R)

MD 1 (Open; Gilchrest, R) #

MO 9 (Open; Hulshof, R) #

NY 26 (Open; Reynolds, R)

VA 2 (Drake, R) #

WA 8 (Reichert, R)

TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (10 R, 4 D)

CA 11 (McNerney, D)

CO 4 (Musgrave, R)

FL 8 (Keller, R) #

GA 8 (Marshall, D)

IL 11 (Open; Weller, R)

KS 2 (Boyda, D)

MI 9 (Knollenberg, R) #

MN 3 (Open; Ramstad, R) #

NJ 3 (Open; Saxton, R)

NM1 (Open; Wilson, R) #

NY 29 (Kuhl, R) #

NC 8 (Hayes, R) #

PA 3 (English, R) #

PA 10 (Carney, D) #

LEAN REPUBLICAN (4 R, 1 D)

CA 4 (Open; Doolittle, R) #

ID 1 (Sali, R) #

MO 6 (Graves, R)

OH 2 (Schmidt, R)

TX 22 (Lampson, D)

LEAN DEMOCRATIC (5 R, 2 D)

AZ 1 (Open; Renzi, R) #

FL 24 (Feeney, R) #

NV 3 (Porter, R) #

OH 16 (Open; Regula, R) #

PA 4 (Altmire, D)

VA 11 (Open; Davis, R)

WI 8 (Kagen, D) #

REPUBLICAN FAVORED (9 R, 0 D)

AZ 3 (Shadegg, R) ^

CA 46 (Rohrabacher, R) ^

FL 13 (Buchanan, R)

IL 6 (Roskam, R)

MN 6 (Bachmann, R)

NE 2 (Terry, R) ^

PA 6 (Gerlach, R)

WV 2 (Capito, R)

WY A-L (Open; Cubin, R) ^

DEMOCRAT FAVORED (3 R, 6 D)

AK A-L (Young, R)

AZ 5 (Mitchell, D) #

AZ 8 (Giffords, D) #

IN 9 (Hill, D)

KY 3 (Yarmuth, D) #

MS 1 (Childers, D)

NY 13 (Open; Fossella, R)

NY 25 (Open; Walsh, R)

OR 5 (Open; Hooley, D) #

Dropped :

IL 14 (Foster, D) #,

KS 3 (Moore, D) #,

NY 20 (Gillibrand, D) #

To me, the biggest news is the shifting of MI-09 to “Tilt Democratic” and the  OH-01 to “Pure Toss-up”. I would love to see the internals for that Ohio race. I am surprised that he was so reserved whe he shifted FL-16. I think Mahoney is a goner. Oh well.

I don’t know if this is a sign that it’s over for John McCain or simply a benefit of having so much money, but the Politico is reporting that the RNC is planning to pump $5 million into senate races to protect endangered incumbents.

The Republican National Committee, growing nervous over the prospect of Democrats’ winning a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, is considering tapping into a $5 million line of credit this week to aid an increasing number of vulnerable incumbents, top Republicans say.

With party strategists fearing a bloodbath at the polls, GOP officials are shifting to triage mode, determining who can be saved and where to best spend their money.

And with the House and Senate Republican campaign committees being drastically outspent by their Democratic counterparts, and outside groups such as Freedom’s Watch offering far less help than was once anticipated, Republicans are turning to the national party committee as a lender of last resort.

A decision is imminent because television time must be reserved and paid for upfront, and available slots are dwindling.

One thing that stands out is that there is no indication that they plan to help out Bob Schafer in Colorado or Wicker in Mississippi. What was also interesting is one GOP staffer who thinks the RNC shoud bail on McCain altogether.

But that the party would use new money to block a Democratic triumph in the Senate rather than boost the odds of its presidential nominee speaks volumes about what many Republicans think is still salvageable. And some in the GOP, especially those working on House and Senate races in which their candidates’ poll numbers swoon during the financial crisis, are increasingly agitated about money being spent on what all observers, including McCain, acknowledge is an uphill fight on top of the ticket.

“They should pull the money from ­McCain like [former RNC Chairman] Haley Barbour did in ’96, when Dole slid away, and funnel it to save some Senate and House seats as best they can,” said one longtime GOP strategist who is working on congressional races.

If I haf to guess, I would say such cash will go to help Saxby Chambliss, Mitch McConnell and John Sununu. If I were the DSCC, I would see if they can open up a line of credit like the nrcc did, or find a way to raise a quick $10 million. The RNC does have a lot of money and I do not want to pass up a once-in-a-generation opportunity because of money.

Everyone heads up. The Georgia Race has been offically declared red hot by the beltway pundits with this email just now hitting my box.

Mon Oct 13 14:48:57 CDT 2008Race: 2008 Senate – GAThe Cook Political Report Race Rating for this race has been changed from LeanRepublican to Toss Up.

Yep, DC has labled it a toss-up and with Oregon going blue this could be the biggest race on Election Night. All hands of deck!

This is clearly the point in the election campaign where you get a pretty firm idea who will win or lose a lot of races, and this is one of them. According to KY3 Political Note is reporting that Republican Kenny Hulsolf is caling back his ad campaign.

Kenny Hulshof’s campaign for Governor ran less television ads on KY3-TV this past week than it did the week before, a potential troubling sign of the financial state of his campaign, political insiders tell the KY3 Political Notebook.

According to KY3 Sales records, Hulshof spent $19,000 on television ads on Springfield’s top-rated television station for this week, beginning Oct. 6th. On the previous week, beginning Sept. 29th, the Hulshof camp spent $37,000 on KY3. That’s almost a 50 percent cut in ad buys in just seven days. For the week of Sept. 22, Hulshof spent $40,000 on KY3.

For comparison, Jay Nixon’s campaign is moving in the opposite direction, incrementally increasing its advertising week by week. For the week of Sept. 22, Nixon spent $50,000 on KY3. On Sept. 29th, the campaign jumped to $56,000 worth of ads for the week. The past week, beginning Oct. 6th, Nixon spent $62,000 on KY3.

It’s been expected that Nixon would win and the money obviously shows. Now the DGA can focus on helping our candidated in WA and NC and possibly salvage something out of IN.

Either Liddy DOle is running out of money or she is just getting outgunned. Either way, she has now resorted to spending her own money, according to the Charlotte News and Observor.

Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole says she is spending some of her own money on her first reelection bid, trying to offset millions of dollars in negative spending Democrats have used to make the race one of the closest in the country.

Dole and her campaign declined to say how much she has pledged to her campaign, but the commitment came recently enough that it won’t appear in campaign finance reports due this week.

“You get such a lot coming at you and spending a great deal of time raising money — there just comes a point when you feel like you need to put some skin in the game,” Dole said.

A spokesman for Dole’s campaign, Dan McLagan, said Sunday that Dole has raised more than $3 million in the quarter ending Sept. 30. He declined to provide a number for cash-on-hand. The campaign of Dole’s Democratic challenger, state Sen. Kay Hagan, also declined Sunday to provide details of her financial resources.

Yeah, I think this one’s over.

A new Insider Advantage poll came hot off the presses and has the Georgia Senate race all tied up at 45%% each.

In the latest InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position poll, Democratic challenger Jim Martin has pulled to a tie with U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss in the U.S. Senate race in Georgia. In other polling, the Georgia presidential race has tightened substantially, and Barack Obama leads in Ohio.

These major changes — especially Chambliss’ dramatic tumble from safe frontrunner — reflect the turbulent nature of the electorate, as well as the economy, in the weeks leading to the election.

IA does not have the best reputation in the world, but it is in line with other polls. Now where is the DSCC?