Author: Trent Thompson

A recent round of Survey USA polling commissioned by Roll Call predicts Democrats will do quite well in next year's high-profile US Senate races. From poll-to-poll, the MOE varies from 3.8-4.0% with an approximate sample size of 650 respondents.

Colorado:

Mark Udall (D): 48
Bob Schaeffer (R): 41
Undecided: 11

Maine:

Tom Allen (D): 38
Susan Collins (R-inc): 55
Undecided: 8

Minnesota (07/30 results in parens):

Mike Ciresi (D): 44 (42)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 44 (48)
Undecided: 12 (11)

Al Franken (D): 45 (42)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 46 (49)
Undecided: 9 (9)

New Hampshire:

Jay Buckey (D): 36
John Sununu (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 16

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 53
John Sununu (R-inc): 42
Undecided: 5

New Mexico:

Marty Chavez (D): 48
Steve Pearce (R): 43
Undecided: 9

Diane Denish (D): 47
Steve Pearce (R): 43
Undecided: 10

Bill Richardson (D): 58
Steve Pearce (R): 37
Undecided: 4

Don Wiviott (D): 32
Steve Pearce (R): 49
Undecided: 18

Marty Chavez (D): 48
Heather Wilson (R): 44
Undecided: 8

Diane Denish (D): 49
Heather Wilson (R): 43
Undecided: 9

Bill Richardson (D): 59
Heather Wilson (R): 37
Undecided: 5

Don Wiviott (D): 38
Heather Wilson (R): 47
Undecided: 15

Oregon:

Jeff Merkley (D): 39
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 13

Steve Novick (D): 39
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 45
Undecided: 16

Virginia (9/17 results in parens):

Mark Warner (D): 52 (56)
George Allen (R): 42 (37)
Undecided: 6 (7)

Mark Warner (D): 57 (60)
Jim Gilmore (R): 35 (32)
Undecided: 8 (8)

Thoughts? Surprises?

The Albuquerque Journal reports that Rep. Tom Udall is reconsidering his earlier decision not to run for New Mexico's open Senate seat: 

I just got a call from someone very knowledgable about N.M. Democratic politics who says Rep. Tom Udall's people are calling the party's heavy hitters in the state this morning to inform them he is reconsidering a run for the U.S. Senate.
…

A rapidly growing “Draft Udall” movement online, as well as major arm-twisting from the national Democratic elite (including Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chuck Schumer), has convinced the congressman to reconsider.
…

Udall, a former two-term New Mexico attorney general, has proven he can win statewide and his polling numbers are among the best of any New Mexico politician. Any ambitious politician would take a hard look at the more prestigious Senate senate seat.

Incidentally, I also heard yesterday from separate – but equally reliable sources – that Gov. Bill Richardson called Udall yesterday to tell him he DOES NOT plan to run for the Senate and would stay out of Udall’s way if the congressman decides to jump in.

Tom Udall's entry into the race would certainly shake things up, greatly increasing our chances of picking up the Senate seat while opening all three of the state's House seats. To keep the momentum going, visit DraftUdall.com.

Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) has been the talk of retirment rumors following his decision not to run for the US Senate. Those rumors were reinforced today by news that Davis poured $400,000 of his available $1M COH into the hard-fought re-election campaign of his wife, State Senator Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis.

“He already said he is not running for the U.S. Senate next year, and there’s been a lot of speculation he is going to retire from the House,” said Sean O’Brien, director of the Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership. “This is going to get the rumor mill going even more that he isn’t going to run again and will not need that money. On the other hand, he is supporting his wife, who is a moderate Republican like him.”

Considering that his district scores a PVI of R+0.6, it certainly seems like Davis is tossing aside much needed cash if he's planning on running for re-electiton.

As you might remember reading last week “on some political gossip Web site,” it was reported that State Senator Kay Hagan (D-Greensboro) was reconsidering a challenge to Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC). Today, Hagan announced she's officialy in the race and came out of the gate swinging:

“To make a difference in North Carolina, we need change in Washington,” Hagan said. “We need a Senator to make our voice heard. We need a Senator who will stand up, lead and make a difference. That's what I've done, and it's what I'm going to keep doing in Washington.”

“We need accountability to end the war in Iraq so we can re-invest those resources here at home. How can Washington reject health care for 123,000 North Carolina children, while continuing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on this mismanaged war?” Hagan said. “Making those kinds of decisions is hard, but I know it can be done – because those are the kinds of fights I've led in the State Senate.”

Hagan joins businessman Jim Neal in the Democratic primary.

Two well-placed sources, independent of each other, have contacted the Swing State Project to let us know that NC State Senator Kay Hagan (D-Greensboro) has reconsidered her earlier decision and will challenge Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

Blue NC had picked up earlier rumors that Hagan might be back in from a local Democratic strategist:

Even before Jim Neal outed himself, Kay Hagan was looking at getting back in the U.S. Senate race. Now she’s getting more encouragement – from home and from Washington. Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, had looked at running earlier. She pulled back because Senator Charles Schumer from New York, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, was intent on recruiting Grier Martin. Martin eventually opted out.

Now Hagan is reconsidering. She’s being wooed by North Carolina Democrats – and by Schumer. The garrulous New Yorker’s first task was to eat crow with Hagan. 

Public Policy Polling recently pegged Dole's approval at 44% with 41% disapproval. If our sources are correct, these numbers certainly suggest Hagan would have something to work with.

SurveyUSA has released its first poll showing who New Mexicans would like to see replace Republican Pete Domenici in the US Senate:

Tom Udall (D): 55
Steve Pearce (R): 37

Tom Udall (D): 56
Heather Wilson (R): 38

Bill Richardson (D): 60
Steve Pearce (R): 36

Bill Richardson (D): 62
Heather Wilson (R): 35

Marty Chavez (D): 35
Steve Pearce (R): 56

Marty Chavez (D): 44
Heather Wilson (R): 48

Patricia Madrid (D): 38
Steve Pearce (R): 54

Patricia Madrid (D): 45
Heather Wilson (R): 46

Don Wiviott (D): 23
Steve Pearce (R): 58

Don Wiviott (D): 34
Heather Wilson (R): 51

MoE: ± 4.4%, n=514

While this round of polling is likely a reflection of name-recognition, it does provide us with a valuable baseline.

Of course, it's disappointing to see that a candidate with numbers like Tom Udall has already turned down a run for the seat. And, as of now, Bill Richardson is still running for President.

While we're still waiting for an official announcement, sources close to Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson say she's decided to seek the seat currently held by Republican Jerry Weller. Halvorson has been heavily recruited over the past few weeks by the DCCC and EMILY's List.

Update: Politico has the details: 

In a big recruiting coup for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D) has decided to run for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller (R-Ill.).

“She sees this as a historic time in Washington, and she wants to be a part of it,” said one Democratic operative familiar with her decision. “She wants to bring the things she accomplished in Illinois to Washington.”

However, just last night the Politico was reporting that a Halvorson run was unlikely. Their source was an Illinois Democratic operative who was only able to parrot Halvorson's own comments on the matter.

Compare Politico's “Illinois Democratic operative” (October 1):

It’s hard to be one of 435 when you can be the first woman state Senate president in Illinois

to Debbie Halvorson herself (September 19):

I don't know if I want to be one person out of 435. Compared to, possibly, being the first-ever woman Senate president, I don't know. It's a big decision.

Building quality Democratic caucuses in the House and Senate is the continuing mission of the Swing State Project, just as it should be of the larger progressive blogosphere.  In that vein, DailyKos, MyDD, and SSP have joined forces once again to promote candidates that Democrats can be proud of in 2008 with our Blue Majority fundraising page.

Candidates who came painfully close to unseating Republicans in 2006, like Darcy Burner in Washington and Dan Maffei in New York, could use your support to help close the deal. And true progressives like Donna Edwards and Mark Pera need our backing to continue waging primary challenges against out-of-touch incumbents.

Our goal is to amass 500 new contributions for Blue Majority candidates before the end of the third fundraising quarter (Sunday, September 30th).  That means we need 150 more people to step up to the plate.  Can you afford to give $15 today to the Blue Majority candidates?  Let's make sure that Republicans and Lieberdems alike know that we won't back down.

PS: If you're in the area, don't forget to join David and James for the Jim Himes Blograiser & Pub Quiz this Saturday. 

In a recent poll comissioned by the state Democratic party, Alaskan voters said that they were unlikely to re-elect Republican Internet Guru Ted Stevens to the US Senate.

Likelihood to re-elect (Hays Research Group, 9/17-18; June results in parentheses; n=401; MoE=+-4.9%):

Very Unlikely: 29 (30)
Somewhat Unlikely: 16 (13)
Undecided: 11 (6)
Somewhat Likely: 16 (22)
Very Likely: 27 (28)

These numbers are certainly moving in the right direction, as a full 45% of Alaskans say they're unlikely to re-elect the veteran legislator to a seventh full term.

I guess all the corruption was bound to catch up to him at some point.