Author: democraticavenger

(Ambitious. I like it. – promoted by James L.)

So this is the most ambitious blogging project I have taken on and am quite excited about it. I will be bringing you, the readers of Swing State, Dailykos, MYDD and the LastingMajority, An update on the 50 most likely Republican Seats to flip to Democratic.  Updating from today, once a month,  all the Way to November 08.

First let me say why I think this is so important.  The blogs role must  play the role of offense as the DCCC might fade back into incumbent defense.  We are very good on offense. This post is attempt to say which seats need to be targeted from  the beginning of the Cycle and adjusting  as circumstance change.

In addition to just the 50 seat targeting, I provide lists of all Republican Incumbents who got less than 60% and 55%, as well as the districts which sent a Republican to Congress that gave George Bush 55% or less of the vote in 2004. This and a few open seats are from where got the list.  For the top 25 targeted races, I gave the reason for weakness.  In the bottom 25,  I just include information not context. I hope this will aid the Netroots Community in make even better targeting decisions.

The Top 50 races

1. MI 7
Republican Tim Walberg
06 Winning Percentage  51%
04 Bush Percentage  54%
Reason for Weakness
Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000,.  He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked  will cause him problems.  If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.

2. PA 15
Republican Charlie Dent
06 Winning Percentage  53%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won .  He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat. 

3. NV 3 
Republican Jon Porter
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority.  The Democrat was able to get 47%  with 5% going else where. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.

4. FL 8
Republican Ric Keller
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage  55%
Reasons for Weakness
You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.

5. WA 8
Republican Dave Reichert 
06 Winning Percentage  ?
04 Bush Percentage  48%
Reasons for Weakness
A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.

6. CO 4
Republican Marilyn Musgrave
06 Winning Percentage 46%
04 Bush Percentage 58%
Reasons for Weakness
46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent.  It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.

7. AZ 1
Republican Rick Renzi
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi.  This is a member who is beatable.

8. CA 4
Republican John Doolittle
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 61%
Reasons for Weakness
A congressperson never wants to get  less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why.  If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race.  We sure should make sure it is.

9. NJ 7
Republican Mike Ferguson
06 Winning Percentage  49%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
Another Republican under 50% spells danger  for him. He also  is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority  for the first time.  Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race.  Ferguson’s position on social issues are also out of step for the district.

10.NC 8
Republican Robin Hayes
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage  54%
Reasons for Weakness
Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.

11. MI 9
Republican Joe Knollenberg
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons  for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on.  He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority.  Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If  she runs again I think supporting  her would be justified.

12.  IL 14
Republican Dennis Hastert
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will  open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic  of an era that is gone. Illinois is  also a state trending clearly our way.  This is a great  chance.

13. OH 16
Republican Ralph Regula
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage  54%
Reasons for Weakness
When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.

14.  PA 18
Republican Tim Murphy
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04  Bush Percentage  54%
Reasons for Weakness 
Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us.  This combined with a district remarkably similar  to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was  recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target

15.  IL 6
Republican Peter Roskam
06 Winning Percentage 51% 
04 Bush Percentage  53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was the DCCC’s greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it.  That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable.  Finding a local candidate will be essential.

16. PA 6
Republican Jim Gelach
06 Winning Percentage  51%
04 Bush Percentage  48%
Reasons for Weakness
51%,  three straight elections. It seems as  if  Jim Gerlach  is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority.  A good Democratic Candidate will make this a  race again and quickly.

17. NY 25
Republican Jim Walsh
06 Winning Percentage  51%
04 Bush Percentage  48%
Reasons for Weakness
  After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been.  As  one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.

18. NM 1
Republican Heather Wilson
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage  48%
Reasons for Weakness
Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.

19. WY AL
Republican Barbara Cubin
06 Winning Percentage  48%
04 Bush Percentage  69%
Reasons for Weakness
No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary. 

20.  OH 15
Republican Deborah Pyrce
06 Winning Percentage  50%
04  Bush Percentage  50%
Reasons for Weakness
If you basically run  in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows.  This is a tough one but  completely winnable

21.  CT 4
Republican Chris Shays
06 Winning Percentage  51%
04  Bush Percentage 46%
Reasons for Weakness
In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties.  It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it.  Still  only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.

22.  IL 10
Republican Mark Kirk
06 Winning Percentage  53%
04  Bush Percentage 47%
Reasons for Weakness
The seventh  Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was  after 2004. A scare yes, but he  still  had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious. 

23.  PA 3
Republican Phil English
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04  Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor’s abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.

24.  OH 1
Republican Steve Chabot
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage  51%
Reasons for Weakness
Steve Chabot had a real scare this time and came away with it quite well. He might be more vulnerable in a Presidential and the close nature of the district means it is winnable. One possible candidate is Paul Hackett, draft him and you have a race.  This race risks slipping a way. 

25. MI 11
Republican Thaddeus McCotter
06 Winning Percentage 54% 
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another Michigan under-target particularly in relationship to funding.  That means the Vulnerable exists and is real. It is going to be a very tough nut to crack, but it fits the profile of many of the Democrat upset victories that happened across the country this year.

26.  NY 13
Republican Vito Fosella 
06 Winning Percentage  57%
04  Bush Percentage  55%

27.  NJ 5
Republican Scott Garrett
06 Winning Percentage  55%
04  Bush Percentage  57%

28. IL 11
Republican Jerry Weller
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04  Bush Percentage  53%

29.  IA 4
Republican
06 Winning Percentage  57%
04  Bush Percentage  51%

30. NY 3
Republican Peter King
06 Winning Percentage  56%
04  Bush Percentage 53%

31.  OH 2
Republican Jean Schmidt
06 Winning Percentage 51% 
04  Bush Percentage 64%

32.  VA 11
Republican Tom Davis
06 Winning Percentage 55% 
04  Bush Percentage 50%

33.  FL 1O
Republican Bill Young
06 Winning Percentage  66% 
04  Bush Percentage  50%

34.  CA 26
Republican David Drier
06 Winning Percentage 57% 
04  Bush Percentage  55%

35.  OH 3
Republican Mike Turner
06 Winning Percentage 59% 
04  Bush Percentage  54%

36.  NY 29
Republican Randy Kuhl
06 Winning Percentage  52%
04  Bush Percentage 56%

37.  FL 24
Republican Tom Feeney
06 Winning Percentage  58%
04 Bush Percentage  55%

38. DE AL
Republican Mike Castle
06 Winning Percentage 57% 
04  Bush Percentage  46%

39.  NJ 3
Republican Jim Saxton
06 Winning Percentage  58%
04  Bush Percentage  51%

40. MN 6
Republican Michelle Bachmann
06 Winning Percentage  50%
04  Bush Percentage 57%

41. OH 12
Republican Pat Tiberi
06 Winning Percentage 58% 
04  Bush Percentage  51%

42. NY 23
Republican John McHugh
06 Winning Percentage  63%
04  Bush Percentage 51%

43.  OH 14
Republican Steve LaTourette
06 Winning Percentage  58%
04  Bush Percentage  53%

44.  NJ 2
Republican Frank LoBiondo
06 Winning Percentage  62%
04  Bush Percentage  50%

45. WI 1
Republican Paul Ryan
06 Winning Percentage  63%
04  Bush Percentage 54%

46 MN 3
Republican Jim Ramstad 
06 Winning Percentage  65%
04  Bush Percentage  51%

47.  MI 4
Republican Dave Camp
06 Winning Percentage  60%
04  Bush Percentage  55%

48. ID 1
Republican Bill Salli
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 69%

49. FL 18
Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
06 Winning Percentage  62%
04 Bush Percentage 54%

50. MI 6
Republican Fred Upton
06 Winning Percentage  61%
04 Bush Percentage 53%

Republican Incumbents under 60%
Total  75 
AK AL  Don Young 57%
AZ 1 Rick Renzi 51%
AZ 2  Trent Franks 58%
AZ 3 John Shadegg 58%
CA 3  Dan Lungren 59%
CA 4 John Doolittle 49%
CA 26 David Drier  59%
CA 45 Mary Bono 59%
CA 46 Dana Rohrabacher 59%
CA 50  Brian Bilbray  54%
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave 46%
C0 6 Tom Tancredo 59%
CT 4 Chris Shays 51%
DE AL Mike Castle  57%
FL 8 Rich Keller 53%
FL 15 Dave Weldon 56%
FL 21  Lincoln Diaz-Balart  59%
FL 24 Tom Feeney 58%
FL 25  Mario Diaz-Balart  58%
IL 10 Mark Kirk 53%
IL  11  Jerry Weller 55%
IL 13 Judy Biggert 58%
IL 15  Tim Johnson 58%
IN 3 Mark Souder 54%
IA 4 Tom Latham 57%
IA 5  Steve King 58%
KY 2 Ron Lewis 55%
KY 4 Geoff Davis 51%
LA 4 Jim McCrery 58%
MD 6 Roscoe  Bartlett 59%
MI 8 Mike Rogers 55%
MI 9 Joe Knollenberg 52%
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter 54%
MN 2  John Kline 56%
MT AL Dennis Rehberg  59%
NE 1 Jeff Fortenberry 59%
NE 2 Lee Terry 55%
NV 3 Jon Porter 48%
NJ 3 Jim Saxton 58%
NJ 5 Scott Garrett 55%
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson 49%
NM 1 Heather Wilson 50%
NY 3 Pete King 56%
NY 13 Vito Fossella 57%
NY 25 Jim Walsh 51%
NY 26 Tom Reynolds 52%
NY 29 Randy Kuhl 52%
NC 5 Virginia Foxx 57%
NC 8 Robin Hayes 50%
OH 1 Steve Chabot 53%
OH 2 Jean Schmidt 51%
OH 3 Mike Turner  59%
OH 5 Paul Gillmor 57%
OH 12 Pat Tiberi 58%
OH 14 Steve LaTourette 58%
OH 15 Deborah Pryce 50%
OH 16  Ralph  Regula 59%
PA 3 Phil English 54%
PA 6 Jim Gerlach 51%
PA 15 Chrales Dent 53%
PA 16 Joe Pitts 57%
PA 18 Tim Murphy 58%
TX 7  John Culberson 59%
TX 10 Mike  McCaul  55%
TX 31 John Carter  58%
TX 32 Pete Sessions  57%
UT 3  Christopher Cannon  58%
VA 2 Thelma Drake 51%
VA 5 Virgil Goode 59%
VA 10 Frank Wolf 57%
VA 11 Tom Davis 55%
WA 5 Cathy McMorris 56%
WA 8  Dave Reichert
WV 2 Shelley Moore-Capito  57%
WY AL Barbara Cubin  48%

Republican Incumbents 55% or under
Total  34
AZ 1 Rick Renzi 51%
CA 4 John Doolittle 49%
CA 50 Brain  Bilbray 54%
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave 46%
CT 4 Chris Shays 51%
FL 8 Rich Keller 53%
IL 10 Mark Kirk 53%
IL 11 Jerry Weller 55%
IN 3 Mark Souder 54%
KY 2 Ron Lewis 55%
KY 4 Geoff Davis 51%
MI 8 Mike Rogers 55%
MI 9 Joe Knollenberg 52%
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter 54%
NE 2 Lee Terry 55%
NV 3 Jon Porter 48%
NJ 5 Scott Garrett 55%
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson 49%
NM 1 Heather Wilson 50%
NY 25 Jim Walsh 51%
NY 26 Tom Reynolds 52%
NY 29 Randy Kuhl  52%
NC 8 Robin Hayes 50%
OH 1 Steve Chabot 53%
OH 2 Jean Schmidt 51%
OH 15 Deborah Pryce 50%
PA 3 Phil English 54%
PA 6 Jim Gerlach 51%
PA 15 Charlie Dent 53%
TX 10 Mike McCaul  55%
VA 2 Thelma Drake  51%
VA 11 Tom Davis 55%
WA 8 Dave Reichert
WY AL Barbara Cubin 48%

Republican held District where George Bush got 55% of the vote or less
AZ 1
CA 26
CA 50
CT 4
DE AL
FL 8
FL 10
FL 18
FL 24
IL 6
IL 10
IL 11
IL 13
IL 14
IL 16
IA 4
MI 4
MI 6
MI 7
MI 8
MI 9
MI 11
MN 2
MN 3
NV 3
NJ 2
NJ 3
NJ 7
NM 1
NY 3
NY 13
NY 23
NY 25
NY 26
NC 8
OH 1
OH 3
OH 12
OH 14
OH 15
OH 16
PA 3
PA 6
PA 15
PA 18
VA 10
VA 11
WA 8
WI 1

Over 60% for Incumbent
FL 10
FL 18
IL 14
IL 16
MI 4
MI 6
MN 3
NJ 2
NY 23
WI 1

Other Potentially Vulnerable Freshman
ID 1 Bill Sali
MN 6 Michelle Bachmann
FL 13  Vern Buchann
NV 2 Dean Heller
FL 9 Gus Billikrais

Partisan ID is a clear sign of how a party is doing because those who Identify with a party vote for its candidates at extremely high rates and do so in almost all races.  These numbers can be a window into the future. If nothing else they show either improvement or declines in states  that is valuable to know. The following is VNS data by State and  Party ID for 06 and 04, followed by a quick comment on what the data could mean for 08

Arizona
06
Democrat 32
Republican 41
Independent 27

04
Democrat 30
Republican 44
Independent 26

Quick Take
Five point trimming is not nothing, Pederson won Independents by 9. Maybe a Target State?

California
Party ID
06
Democrat 41
Republican 35
Independent 25

Democrat 39
Republican 33
Independent 25

Quick Take :Partisan vote more in an off Year. Nothing to see here.  California Blue

Connecticut
06
Democrat 38
Republican 26
Independent  36

04
Democrat 37
Republican 30
Independent 33

Quick Take
Republican id falls, Indies not Dems mostly gain.  CT electorate votes for Team Blue

Florida
06
Democrat 36
Republican 39
Independent 25

04
Democrat 37
Republican 41
Independent 23

Quick Take, No real change, Florida remains swing of all swing states, like movement in 8th and 13th  to Dems , worry about why Mahoney got  only 49%  The Battle Never stops in Florida.

Hawaii
06
Democrat  40
Republican 23
Independent 37%

04
Democrat 40
Republican 24
Independent 36

Quick Take. Yawn. Dems win Hawaii

Illinois
06
Democrat 46
Republican 31
Independent 23

04
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27

Quick Note
Boy did Dems destroy and fast. Those are comically bad numbers for the GOP. Wished we had spent more money on Seals.  08 in bag.

Maine 
06
Democrat 37
Republican 29
Independent 34

04
Democrat 31
Republican 30
Independent  38

Quick Take
As goes Maine so goes the nation, hard to imagine it even makes the target list in the next election.

Maryland
06
Democrat 50
Republican 31
Independent  19

04
Democrat 41
Republican 32
Independent 26

Quick Take,
No wonder Erlich went down. That high turnout in the primary was a great sign. Great Time to be a Maryland Democrat. So yes we in it in 08
Massachusetts
06
Democrat 42
Republican 19
Independent 39

04
Democrat 39
Republican 16
Independent 44

Quick Take
More Partisans vote in off years. Republicans improved to 19% and  in process ended up with 35%  in the Governor’s race as their high point in any statewide office  and 5 our of 40 State Senate Seats .  I am not sure there is a more dead major party anywhere in the country.  Lets hope Mitt Romney can do for The National Party what he did for the State Party. Dems Win in 08.

Michigan
06
Democrat 40
Republican 33
Independent 27

04
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27

Quick Take
Two point improvement isn’t nothing. Indies still key, the dueling 56’s out of Stabenow and Granholm, after all the hang wringing [ and  late million bucks from the NRSC] Make me feel very good about Michigan going into 08.
Minnesota
06
Democrat 40
Republican 36
Independent 24

04
Democrat 38
Republican 35
Independent 27

Quick Take
Partisan Vote more in off year. Dems gain a point of ID which is nice.  The Senate Race and Walz and almost the entire under ticket were nicer.  We should be ok in Minnesota but it is clearly still a close state, Senate Race aside.

Missouri  06
Democrat 37
Republican 39
Independent 25

Democrat 35
Republican 36
Independent  29

Quick Take
Indies save day  in Senate Race. Party ID slight for Republicans. Claire won by enough.  with unpopular Governor Blunt to at least put it on target list at outset.

Montana
06
Democrat 32
Republican 39
Independent 29

04
Democrat 32
Republican 39
Independent 29

Quick Take
No Movement in Partisan ID despite Beloved Governor, he won’t be able to carry Dem Pres Candidate. Montana is a Red State at least another Cycle. Tester is awesome.

Nebraska
06
Democrat 27
Republican 50
Independent 23

04
Democrat 24
Republican 53
Independent 22

Quick Take
Great Improvement though clearly not enough to change much.  Theses things take time.  Nebraska for whoever the Republicans nominate
Nevada
06
Democrat 33
Republican 40
Independent 27

04
Democrat 35
Republican 39
Independent 26

Quick Take
Rare back sliding in critical battle ground state, also explains high profile loses, including two house seats and governorship. Why are Colorado-Arizona, doing well while Nevada struggles? Still has to be a pick off target for 08.

New Jersey
06
Democrat 41
Republican 28
Independent 31

04
Democrat 39
Republican 31
Independent 30

Quick Take
Nice Five point bump, sealed deal in Senate race.  Dem Partisans also extremely loyal to Dem nominee,allows for slight loss with Indies. Do they really want to try to pick up a Dem held Senate  Seat in New Jersey?  Win in 08

New Mexico
06
Democrat  41
Republican 32
Independent 27%

04
Democrat 40
Republican 33
Independent 27

Quick Take
Slight Dem increase encouraging,  given extreme close nature of last two Presidential Elections there.  Senate Race also interesting.
New York
06
Democrat 47
Republican 25
Independent 27

04
Democrat 45
Republican 29
Independent 26

Quick Note
Only real news is the NY Republicans are not quite as dead as Massachusetts
Republicans Dems win Presidential vote here.

North Dakota
06
Democrat 29
Republican 38
Independent 33

04
Democrat 27
Republican 41%
Independent 32

Quick Take
Improvement is good, hard to see races it will matter in near future, given Dems already hold whole Congressional Delegation.  Red in 08

Ohio
06
Democrat 40
Republican 37
Independent  23

04
Democrat 35
Republican 40
Independent 25

Quick Take
Awesome  Numbers, Given Kerry Win with Ohio Indies, means Dems have inside track at 08 Electoral College votes.

Pennsylvania
06
Democrat 43
Republican 38
Independent 19

04
Democrat 41
Republican 39
Independent 20

Quick Take
Very good encouraging Numbers, will Republicans want to Contest in Pennsylvania?  Can Rendell-Casey be stopped?  Does Jim Gerlach have a way to riggle out again, tune in next cycle for, As Pennsylvania turns.

Rhode Island
06
Democrat 38
Republican 18
Independent 44

04
Democrat 39
Republican 16
Independent 45

Quick Take
Probably just noise, in the Party ID numbers, and a party at 18 isn’t going to scary me, though it may have saved their Republican Governor. Rhode Island is blue in 08

Tennessee
06
Democrat 34
Republican 38
Independent 28

04
Democrat 32
Republican 40
Independent 28

Quick Take
Shame it didn’t push Ford across finishing line, but those numbers with our Governor’s 69 means their may still be hope for Tennessee

Texas
06
Democrat 31
Republican 41
Independent 28

Democrat 32
Republican 43
Independent 24

Quick Take
Doesn’t Change much. Texas is Red State. Is Senator Croyn as hated as Perry, can we get only challenger please.

Utah
06
Democrat 20
Republican 56
Independent 24

04
Democrat 19
Republican 58
Independent 24

Quick Take
It is Utah. 

Vermont
06
Democrat 29
Republican 27
Independent 44

04
Democrat 31
Republican 27
Independent  41

Quick Take
Vermont’s Indies voted 74% for Bernie Sanders and 67% for John Kerry, so honestly Vermont loves us. Dems in 08

Virginia
06 
Democrat  36
Republican  39
Independent  26

04
Democrat 35
Republican 39
Independent  26

Quick Take
No real movement. Virginia Independents were all decisive in 04 and 06 races, do they hold key to Presidency?  Too tempting a target not to try.
Washington
06
Democrat 39
Republican 29
Independent 32

04
Democrat 36
Republican 32
Independent 33

Quick Take
Maybe Washington will find its way off targets list now, look its George Nethercutt, I am scared.

West Virginia
06
Democrat  51
Republican 32
Independent 16

04
Democrat 50
Republican 32
Independent 18

Quick Take
No real change, will Dems return home  30% voted for Bush in 04. Probably Red in 08 but needs to be watched.

Wisconsin
06
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27

04
Democrat 35
Republican 38
Independent  27

Quick Take
Second only in greatness to Ohio, these are great numbers that give Dems  a great shot at Wisconsin in 08

Wyoming
06
Democrat 27
Republican 56
Independent 17

04
Democrat 25
Republican 53
Independent 22

Quick Take
How does this state have a Dem Governor and almost elect a Democrat to Congress. This proves not even Utah should be over looked.

Four States I wish I had data for
Colorado Arkansas New Hampshire and Iowa

It is nice to be the Majority again. One of the main reasons Democrats are back in the Majority is that they were able to put a lot more races into contention then were the Republicans.  It is vitally important that we keep this playing field imbalance, so that we can continue to be in and expand our Majority. It is my contention, that at least one quarter of House Republicans remain vulnerable today.  This statement is even truer if the Republicans were to nominate a true social conservative for President in 2008.  Democrats need to compete as if we were behind rather than ahead 15 seats. Being in the Majority makes everything easier for us, and everything harder for them. We also may see a large group of retirements, none of which should catch us off guard. Which is why the advantage must be pressed. It is also important to note that challengers help force legislators to vote with their constituencies on the hopefully popular Democratic legislation we put forward. Rather than having to water down our legislation for Bipartisanship, we can threaten defeat to those members who go against popular sentiment in their districts.  Here is my comprehensive list of seats Democrats could still gain as well, as the criteria by which the decisions were reached.  Also the currently uncalled races are omitted.

Under 55
All Republican members of Congress who received 55% or of their vote must be consider vulnerable they are listed by How Democratic the District voted in 2004 Presidential race.  Those that were not targeted this time receive a *
CT 4 Chris Shays
IL 10  Mark Kirk
PA 6 Jim Gerlach
NY 25 Jim Walsh
PA 15  Charlie Dent  *
VA 11 Tom Davis*
OH 1 Steve Chabot
MI 9  Joe Knollenberg *
NV 3  Jon Porter
PA 3 Phil English*
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter *
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson
IL 6 Peter Roskam
AZ 1 Rick Renzi
MI 8 Mike Rogers
MI 7  Tim Walberg*
IL 11 Jerry Weller *
CA 50 Brain Bilbray
NY 26 Tom Reynolds
NY 29 Randy Kuhl
NJ 5 Scott Garrett  *
MN 6 Michelle Bachmann
NV 2 Dean Heller
VA 2 Thelma Drake
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave
NE 2  Lee Terry *
CA 4 John Doolittle
KY 4 Geoff Davis
KY 2 Ron Lewis
IN 3 Mark Souder
ID 1 Bill Sali
NE 3 Adrian Smith

All Republicans from district Where John Kerry got 45% of the vote or More [listed by State excluding those were a Democrat held the Republican to less than 55%] Their Re-election Percent next to name
DE AL  Mike Castle  57%
FL 10  Bill Young  66%
FL 18  Ileana Ros-Lehtinen 62%
FL 24 Tom Feeney  58%
IA 4  Tom Latham  57%
MI 6  Fred Upton  61%
MN 3 Jim  Ramstad  65%
NJ 2 Frank LoBiondo  65 %
NJ 3 Jim Saxton 59%
NY 3 Peter King 56%
NY 13 Vito Fossella  57%
NY 23  Bob McHugh  63%
OH 3 Mike Turner 59%
OH 12 Pat Tiberi 58%
OH 14  Steve  LaTourette
OH 16 Ralph Regula 59%
PA 18  Tim Murphy 58%
WI 1  Paul Ryan 63%

Others, The members of Congress who are potentially vulnerable for other reasons:

AK AL  Don Young
MT AL  Dennis Rehberg
CO 6  Tom Tancredo
VA 10 Frank Wolf [ possible retirement] 
IL 14  Dennis Hastert[Possible retirement]
CA 26  David Dreier 

This is where I get to be wrong. I have found six Democratic Candidates who are running good campaigns in the right environments who are currently not listed on any list of competitive races in the country by any professional prognosticators. . So here is where I go out on a limb.  All of these candidates will get 40%, most will get 45% and one will win.  This is not to rule out the possibility of other strange upsets.  But theses six campaigns have a real shot at riding a wave.

Michigan 9th
This is one of the serious under covered race in a district where it should be treated with greater respect.  This is a district that gave George Bush a whopping and impressive 51% of the vote in 2004.  While the Democrats didn’t get the most impressive nominee in Nancy Skinner, they did get a feisty one.  The finance report tells a good story. Incumbent Congressman Joe Knollenberg has spent more money, almost 2.5 million dollars, more then he has raised this cycle. He also faced a primary from a pro-choice Republican Women who got 30% against him. Now it is true that Michigan has open voting but this is still a sign.  Nancy Skinner is a progressive talk radio host, so she can deal with press. I also believe that in the end both Michigan Gov and Senate will break for us by about giving Nancy a chance at coattails, she has raised a respectable if not impressive 330,000 dollars.  Her website is  http://nancyskinner….
Check her out.

Minnesota 2nd
I just refuse to give up on Coleen Rowley. She was named Time Woman of the Year. Her campaign has been considered Lackluster, but Coleen has slowly clawed her way back into this race. We will benefit from a massive victory in the Senate Race and also hopefully the Governor’s race.  Her opponent Incumbent John Kline is also not loved.  He only ran slight ahead of The President in his district and only got 57% not terrible but also not wonderful. The only polling out is Survey USA that shows Coleen in striking distance 50-42. She has a real shot. Go Coleen.
On web http://www.coleenrow…

Ohio 3rd
  This is quite possibly the least covered house race that has any money be spent at all. Before I get to the specifics of the race let me be clear the key thing that this race has going for it is Ohio. The Republican in Ohio seem to be collapsing at an astonishing rate. This means that upsets just become more likely across the board. I point therefore to Ohio’s 3rd district. This is a surprise district because the Democratic Candidate was forced to drop in late August. What is surprising is that this caused the Democrats to have an improved candidate overall.  Dick Chema is such a candidate. He was a prosecutor before he decided to run for Congress and has put together both acceptable amounts of money and strong support from the politicians in the district. This district only gave George Bush 54%. It is clearly a long shot a Mike Turner has no real fireable except being a Republican, in Ohio that might just be enough.  It is clearly possible. On  the web
http://www.chemaforc…

Montana At Large
The Montana miracle  will be tested in this race. Jon Tester has run an awesome campaign and that will hopefully benefit Democratic Nominee Monica Lindeen. She has a run a good if under covered campaign. Remember that even while Schweitzer was winning by a relatively small amount we won almost all Statewide offices and the Legislature. I think it will be closer with a real chance Monica pulls it off. Again the incumbent Dennis Rehberg hasn’t  real made any fatal mistakes. The question is while tossing out Burns will they also toss Rehberg. There is reason for hope.
On Web http://www.lindeen.n…

NJ 5
If there is a greater example of Congressman who is just out step with the view of his constituents, it  is Scott Garrett. He was of the most Conservative Members in the House Voting against Katrina Aid and  Renewing the Voting  Rights act. The district did go 57% for George Bush but they just aren’t this Conservative. Paul Aronsohn  is a good candidate who has raised a decent amount of money with a decent bio and has been working hard.  He also has a lot of Clinton Alumni helping him. This one could be the biggest surprise if the district would just figure out how Conservative Garrett really is.
http://www.paularons…

IL 11
John Pavich was highly touted and then he went away, we will see if he comes back on election night.  It is only a 53%  Bush district and Illinios has trended very Democratic.  Pavich has also picked up a few newspapers and the Chicago Tribune stayed Neutral.  Incumbent Jerry Weller is likely to hold. But John Pavich has kept it close and I like it is an upset.
On Web http://www.pavichfor…

There you have it. Six races no one has on their list that just might flip. I stand by the prediction. Everyone gets 40 most get 45 and  one will win.  I am either a prophet or a moron we found out in about 40 hours.