As of 3:30 AM on Nov. 4th the Republicans have a 239 seat majority in the House which is 21 seats over the 218 needed for the majority.
So I started taking a VERY EARLY look at 2012 House Seats and seeing if there are at least 22 seats the Democrats should realistically be able to take a run at if 2012 is a normal election year (50-50 turnout).
So the seats we lost that I think we’d have a 40% chance of winning and up are AZ-01 (R+4), AZ-05 (R+5), CA-20 (D+5), FL-02 (R+6), FL-08 (R+2), FL-22 (D+1) FL-24 (R+4), IL-08 (R+1), IL-11 (R+1), IL-14 (R+1), IL-17 (D+3), MI-01 (R+3), MI-07 (R+2), MN-08 (D+3), NV-03 (D+2), NH-01 (EVEN), NH-02 (D+3), NJ-03 (R+1), NY-13 (R+4), NY-19 (R+3), NY-20 (R+2), NY-24 (R+2), NC-02 (R+2), OH-01 (D+1), OH-06 (R+2), OH-15 (D+1), OH-16 (R+4), PA-07 (D+3), PA-08 (D+2), PA-11 (D+4), TX-23 (R+4), TX-27 (R+2), WA-03 (EVEN), WI-07 (D+3), and WI-08 (R+2). Right there is 35 seats, if I counted correctly, where the Dems should be able to win at least 1/2 of them by it simply not being 2010 Part II.
Then we could add in the Republican seats that should be up for a challenge in a Presidential election like AZ-03 (Quayle won by 11.6%), CA-03, CA-44, CA-45, CA-49, FL-12, FL-25, IL-10, MN-06 (Bachmann is bound to shoot herself in the foot soon), PA-06, PA-07, SC-02 (Wilson won by 9.8% in this year, imagine when AA turnout is higher), and WA-08. The Dems have a much smaller chance at winning any of these districts, aside from IL-10, but 1/2 of 35 is 17.5 and adding 2-3 seats here would put Democrats within 2 seats of re-taking the House.
Now I’m sure redistricting will shake things up and some senior Democrats and Republicans will retire but as of today I think the Democrats could just have an average election year and still take back the House albeit with a tiny minority. If Obama gets a re-election bounce similar to Clinton in 1996 then maybe his coattails could elect another 10 or so Democrats.
P.S. If you see any seats that I forgot to list please let me know.
P.P.S I looked at a combination of a districts PVI and 08/10 election numbers.