Author: ryanlkelly

It appears that CQ is in the midst of changing two Michigan races from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite.

I did my daiy check on the CQPolitics.com Election Map, and noticed the number of House races in No Clear Favorite went to 17 from 15. I went to the map and now MI-07 (Mark Schauer against Rep. Walberg) and MI-09 (Gary Peters against Rep. Knollenberg) are “yellow” and in a no clear favorite status.

I expect a story to be submitted by CQ and provide the details in the next day. At that time, the remaining information on the pages will get updated to reflect the “No Clear Favorite” status. Recent polling has been documented on SSP. Details of each race below the fold.

MI-07

2008: Rep. Tim Walberg (R) vs. Mark Schauer (D)

2006: Walberg (R) 50 percent, Sharon Renier (D) 46 percent

Democrats are heavily targeting the seat, arguing that Walberg, who ousted moderate incumbent Joe Schwarz in a bitter primary in 2006, is too conservative for the southern, rural district. Democratic state Sen. Mark Schauer continued to out-raise the first-term Republican congressman through the second quarter of 2008 and easily cleared the Aug. 5 primary against Renier, the organic farmer whose underfunded candidacy in 2006 highlighted Walberg’s vulnerability.

MI-09

2008: Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) vs. Gary Peters (D)

2006: Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) 52 percent, Nancy Skinner (D) 46 percent

Democratic gains in the Oakland County district combined with Knollenberg’s record low win in 2006 have made Michigan’s 9th Congressional District a top Democratic target and former state Sen. Gary Peters a top candidate for the party in 2008. Knollenberg has eight terms under his belt and has gotten an early start in campaigning for re-election. He raised $1.8 million as of March 31, but Peters is receiving support from the Democratic House campaign committee and had raised three-quarters of a million dollars by the same date.

It will be very interesting the order we see the races come in on election night. It’s fun that we predict through our “Cattle Calls” which seats we think are going to flip from the most likely to the far-reaching, but even more so, we will know rather quickly on election night if Democrats will have a shot at the magical-filibuster-proof majority (for the last time, 60 seats is NOT a veto-proof majority).

EAST: As the east coast polls close we’ll see Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia, and North Carolina first at varying times given the different poll closing times, getting 2 to 4 seats and a big indication of if it’s going to be a 5-6 seat pick-up or 8-9.

CENTRAL: Then we get some big-time news with Minnesota and Mississippi-B (even Louisiana to boot). Right there, we’ll have a lot of the current “Lean GOP” races called (if they can be) in Maine, North Carolina, Minnesota, and Mississippi-B.

As we complete the Central area, Democrats will know if their dream of a 60-seat filibuster majority is viable or if they are in for a good night with a 6 seat pick-up. Of course by this point, we Democrats hope that we can take whatever races we have won thus far and add +4 more onto them.

MOUNTAIN WEST: We move into the next category which should hopefully be races that are called as soon as the polls are closed in New Mexico and Colorado. Let’s hope there is no uncertainty when these polls close.

PACIFIC: Finally we have Oregon, followed by Alaska. Neither of these of course are certain, and if things aren’t going out way, we could end up with the “floor” of seats at DEM+4, or we could be riding a Democratic wave all the way to DEM+10 (and my dream of having 60 without Lieberman being needed for cloture).

I am hopeful that by the time the polls close in my home state of Florida (panhandle included), we’ll be off to an excellent start with at least 3 seats on the East coast which will make my nerves a little bit less stressed as we move across the nation, both for the presidential election (which should be a no brainer) and our fate in the Senate.  

CQ has posted a ratings change as of 7/9 for NY-25, moving it to “Leans Democrat” from the previous “No Clear Favorite” category, moving another GOP held seat into the Democratic side. Democratic Candidate Dan Maffei now has the edge in the race against the GOP candidate former Onondaga County Legislature Chairman Dale Sweetland for the seat being vacated by Rep. James Walsh (R-NY).

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

This puts the CQ 111th Congress projections at:

236 Democrats, 186 Republicans, 13 No Clear Favorite

Of those 13 NCFs, 8 are GOP seats, while 5 are Democrats (AL-05, FL-16, KS-02, LA-06, & OR-05). Frankly, I think FL-16 is my biggest concern, and I’d throw in TX-22 in that category.