Author: safi

I’m SHOCKED, SHOCKED that this story which has spread like wildfire the past few hours has yet to be discussed on the site.

For those who haven’t heard, and according to Countdown Gov. Patterson just confirmed it, Caroline Kennedy, daughter of JFK, has spoken to Gov. Patterson about being Hillary Clinton’s replacement.

I feel like with someone like her in the mix a lot of the things we said Patterson would look for like geography, race, gender kind of become secondary.

Not to necessarily take a position on this, but I just feel like it would be difficult for Patterson to choose someone like Brian Higgins or Tom Suozzo over Caroline Kennedy.

There will be 16 democratic held seats up in 2010. I’ll take a look at which of these seats I consider to have the potential to be competitive.

Before I start, I’ll just add that I’m going to be small c, conservative with this analysis. Many of the races that I put in the competitive category will probably not be competitive on election day, but that looking 2 years ahead I have absolutely no idea what will happen.

Not competitive races: Even 2 years ahead of time, I think I can safely predict that barring something unusual I don’t expect a race in these states.

1. Arkansas(Blanche Lincoln)-Huckabee is not running.

2. California(Barbara Boxer)-You think Arnold’s ego will allow him to be one of 100, and a powerless backbencher at that? PLEASE.

3. Indiana(Evan Bayh)

4. Maryland(Barbara Mikulski)

5. New York(Charles Schumer)

6. North Dakota(Byron Dorgan)-Hoeven’s passed on a race twice, no reason to believe it won’t be a third.

7. Oregon(Ron Wyden)

8. Vermont(Patrick Leahy)

9. Washington(Patty Murray)-I think 2-time loser Dino Rossi is probably too tainted by now.

Now, I’ll look at the 7 states I think could be competitive.

1. Colorado(Ken Salazar)-Things are looking real good for Salazar, but if former Gov. Bill Owens decides to return to politics, who knows.

2. Connecticut(Chris Dodd)-I don’t expect this race to be competitive. But, Dodd does have pretty mediocre approval ratings and if Chris Shays decided to run Dodd could be in for a race.

3. Hawaii(Daniel Inouye)-He runs again, he wins. But, he’ll be 86 on election day. And if he chooses to retire, the Dem will be a favorite but Gov. Lingle could give us some heartburn.

4. Illinois(TBD)-Whomever is appointed will be a heavy favorite but until we know exactly who that is, its impossible to know how this will play out.

5. Delware(TBD)-This is even more complicated than Illinois since there’s the possiblity of a place holder so Beau can run in the 2010 election. But judging by the DE GOP’s inability to field a credible candidate for the 08 Governor’s race doesn’t bode well for them here.

6. Nevada(Harry Reid)-I know a lot of people have looked at this race as potentially very competitive, but I just don’t see it. But, I have little doubt that whomever is running the NRSC will be trying hard to recruit a top-tier candidate here.

7. Wisconsin-I don’t expect this race to be competitive either. But if Scott Walker or Paul Ryan decide to run, this could turn into a very tight race.

A few days ago when the senate race was a 1-2 point race, this thread may have been more relevant but now it looks like both Dems will win.

But, Alaska’s polls close a full 2 hours after any other state in the country. So, a lot of Alaskans may go to the polls with one of the candidates, probably Obama, having already reached 270, and I was wondering if you guys thought this might effect turnout, and who this would benefit.

There doing this same thread at Daily Kos and I disagree with some of brownsox’a analysis but its a good start.

One of the things you have to keep in mind, is that unless he appoints himself he’s probably facing a stiff primary opponent. I know a little bit about Illinois politics, so here’s some of the names who will be tossed around:

1. Blagojevich: I don’t think its out of the realm of possibility that Blago appoints himself. Having said that, it would be incredibly stupid on his part to do so. He’s not particularly popular in Illinois and this move would make him look pretty bad.

Odds: 50-1

2. Lisa Madigan: This is almost as bad as him appointing himself. This would look like a purely political move, a complete quid pro quo. The worst part is that while Madigan would be his toughest primary opponent both Dan Hymes and Alexi Giannoulas could still knock him off. (This same logic applies to choosing Himes and Giannoulas as well)

Odds: 35-1

3. Jan Schakowsky: This move would please a lot of prgoressives and be heralded around these parts. But, she’s got some baggage due to her husband and there’s another factor that I’ll lay out later as to why I don’t think she’ll be the choice.

Odds: 20-1

4. Jesse White: This is the move that on paper looks perfect. Historic African-American leader who is universally respected by Republicans and Democrats in Illinois, alike. The problem with this pick is that White is 74 years old and would be 76 on election day 2010. Meaning, he probably doesn’t run for re-election and an open Senate seat in Illinois could get very crowded and very ugly.

Odds: 15-1

5. Jesse Jackson Jr.-This is who I think it will be. My main disagreement with brownsox’s analysis is that he didn’t include the role race will play in this decision. Their is only 1 African-American senator right now and if he wins the presidency and is replaced by a white person, Blago could alienate a large slice of the Democratic electorate. This issue would be compounded by the fact that, other than Erik Fleming against Thad Cochoran, there are no African-Americans running for US Senate this cycle. That means the 09-10 Congress will ahve no African-American represenation. If you don’t think Blago’s primary opponent will use that to his advantage, your out of your mind. The one concern about Jesse Jackson Jr. is his dad and the view that this could make him unelectable statewide, but he’s not his dad.

The goal has been to get to 60 seats in the senate. Let’s assume that Lieberman still caucuses with the Dems, so that means we need 9 seats.

We’ve currently got 8 seats where we’re either tied or ahead: VA, NM, CO, NH, AK, MN, OR and NC. Its far from a sure thing that we’ll win all of these, but all are legitimate targets and I like our trendlines in all of them.

But that’s only 59, so we have to look beyond them to get to 60. There are a number of races that I think we got a shot to get that 60th.  

Three races that I’m giving up on are Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Kentucky. I know Rice and Kleeb are very popular around these parts. I still think Andrew Rice is a terrific candidate, but I always thought the only way Rice had a shot was a Macaca-type gaffe by Inhofe and he hasn’t done it. Kleeb is also a terrific candidate and he’s saying that once he gets his name ID up, his numbers will improve. My question is what is he waiting for, the election is in 6 weeks. I never thought Lunsford really had a shot, even when polls showed him ahead. I always thought this race was more about keeping McConnell occuppied and make him use his considerable warchest on himself

Here are the 3 races that I think could be #60

1. Georgia: Survey USA and Rasmussen show wildly different results of this race. Me being the cynic that I am tend to believe SUSA, but if Ras’ numbers are closer to reality, this is still a race.

2. Maine: I know a lot of people are throwing in the towel on Allen, but I’m not. I know he trails by 13, although I think that poll may have oversampled Republicans as evidenced by Obama’s scant 4 pt. lead. But Maine is the bluest state we’re contesting this cycle and I think a well done ad by Obama and the DSCC’s money-bomb we could see this race turn dramatically quite quickly.

3. Mississippi: This is the closest of the three, but I ahve to admit I’m most bullish about this one. Wicker has been slowly but surely moving up, and unlike Goergia or Maine I don’t really know how they stop Wicker’s momentum.

There was a poll after the GA primary that showed Martin down 6 and Schumer and the DSCC said they’d keep an eye on this race. Well, it looks like they may look elsewhere now.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…

A new PPP of Florida just came out it showed the Presidential race within the MOE(McCain up 3) but readers of this site are more interested in the two potential 2010 senate matchups.

It shows Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz up one on Sen. Martinez but that Sen. Bob Graham would be up 20, 51-31 on Martinez. Also Martinez has an abominable 24/40 Approval/dissaproval rating.

It seems like Sink, Wexler and Schultz are all basically tied with Martinez while Graham would beat him soundly.

The moral of the story, Martinez is absolutely beatable by anyone but if we want to definitely win then get Graham in the race.

Edit: a link to the poll

http://www.publicpolicypolling…