skywaker9 – Page 3 – Swing State Project

More Oregon Political News: Dems Surge Ahead and More!

I had not planned to publish another Oregon political news roundup but a few stories in today’s news cry out for me to make them known to the blogosphere. They are:

1. Matt Wingard’s troubles deepen-The State Legislative candidate’s (R) child abuse issues may be worse than previously thought.

2. Oregon Dems blast the bailout.

3. Oregon Dems surge in registration in OR-5.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Matt Wingard’s Troubles Deepen:

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/a_political_ad_notes_wilsonvil.html.

As reported yesterday, the Oregon D’s have launched an ad critical of State Rep. candidate (and interim incumbent) Matt Wingard (R-Wilsonville) regarding his 2002 conviction for misdemeanor assault for attacking his then 7-year old son with a screwdriver. However, the story does not end there. According to filings made over custody of the child in 2004 (Wingard and the child’s mother never married), the child’s mother claims that this incident was “part of a history of abusive behavior by Wingard, including slapping that left bruises.” This begs the question of how the Republicans can really claim to be family first if they can’t even pick a candidate who takes care of their own family.

Oregon Dems Blast the Bailout:

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/defazio_urges_congress_to_go_s.html

Led by longtime OR Congressman Peter DeFazio (D-OR4), Oregon Democrats stood up against Henry Paulson’s $700B bailout plan in unison. As Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) said, “Unless we address the underlying faults in the system that brought us to this financial abyss in the first place, we may simply be building the world’s largest bridge to nowhere.” By contrast, Gordon Smith couldn’t seem to make up his mind, stating that “We’re looking at a bad option and potentially worse options.” This is perhaps further proof of how out of touch Gordon Smith is, not surprising given his substantial wealth and strong record as a Bush clone. Still, I am proud to say that Oregon Democrats stand united against this giveaway.

Oregon Dems Surge in Registration in OR-5

Source: http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/09/democratic_registration_surges.html

Oregon’s fifth congressional district has never been considered safe for the Democrats. Since first taking office, retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley (D-OR) had never won with even as much as 60% of the vote and always faced a registration disadvantage. Well, that is no longer true as the Democrats now hold an edge of about 20k in the district, which combined with the myriad problems of Republican candidate Mike Erickson, should give Schrader a relatively easy win.

Let me know what you think.

Oregon Political News Roundup: Gordon Smith the Elitist and More!

Enough has happened in the past few weeks for me to do one of my occasional Oregon political news roundups. Specifically, the following four stories will be covered:

1. Gordon Smith the Elitist-Smith is revealed to be at least the 10th richest member of Congress.

2. One expensive movie ticket-The Governator no shows for a Smith fundraiser, choosing to appear via satellite.

3. Republican Wingard gets hit for child abuse conviction in new ad.

4. Democrats continue rise in voter registration.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Gordon Smith the Elitist:

According to Roll Call’s list of the 50 Richest Members of Congress, Oregon’s own Gordon Smith comes in at #10, with an estimated worth of $28.65M.

Yet that is not the end of the story, to quote Roll Call:

If you take financial disclosure forms seriously (never a good idea), you might be led to believe that Smith’s net worth tripled last year. His 2006 financial disclosure form disclosed net assets of about $8.5 million.

But Smith’s worth is largely derived from Smith Food Sales, a purveyor of frozen vegetables. In 2006 he listed that asset as being worth $5 million to $25 million. In 2007, the value has jumped to the next category, $25 million to $50 million, so even if the value of the asset rose from just under to just more than $25 million, the effect on the disclosure form is to add $20 million to Smith’s minimum net worth. Since Smith doesn’t have to report the assets of the corporation, his actual net worth may be far above what is reported on the Congressional form.

Add to that the recent news that Gordon Smith’s house is worth more than the rest of the OR delegation combined ($3.5M) and that he is the only member of the delegation to not actually live in DC, and one wonders who Gordon Smith really thinks he’s fooling when he says he is not elitist.

Source for the houses info: Congressional Cribs (OR).

One Expensive Movie Ticket

Source: Smith fundraiser turns into pricey movie ticket

Gordon Smith had long planned to hold a fundraiser with the Governator Ahnold (R-CA) and had secured gifts of $1k per person to see the Governator speak. However, due to the budget crisis in CA, the Governator did not come, instead speaking via satellite link to the event. There is now some word that he will come up later for Gordon Smith, but this still begs the question of how deep Smith must be reaching if he needs to rely basically solely on a former action star to fundraise.

Wingard gets hit on child abuse conviction:

Source: Democratic ad hits Wingard on assault

A few months back, it was reported that Matt Wingard had been convicted several years back for misdemeanor assault after hitting his then 7-year old son with a screwdriver. At the time, the OR Repubs tried to get Wingard, who is running for the state house from Wilsonville, a slightly red seat but certainly winnable, to drop out but were unsuccessful. Now the Democrats have released a mailer attacking Wingard for his conviction, an attack that Democratic candidate Jessica Adamson stands behind, stating “This is a community of Saturday morning football games and family dinners and game nights. I don’t believe that Mr. Wingard’s actions reflect the community that I know.” It remains to be seen what impact this will have but I have to say I like the strategy.

Oregon Democrats Continue Voter Registration Rise:

In just released voter registration figures covering registration through the end of August (http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/aug08.pdf) it was revealed that once again the Democrats have increased their lead in the state. Statewide, there are now 894k Democrats and 677k Republicans, with the rest of Oregon’s slightly more than 2M registered voters independents or third party members. For comparison, in 2006, there were 763k Democrats and 701k Republicans. Although the increase has certainly been seen most in heavily Democratic areas, such as Multnomah County, Democrats now hold a voter registration edge, or are within a couple thousand at worst, in more than two thirds of the state’s legislative districts.

Let me know what you think.

Gordon Smith claims Merkley supports rapists in new ads

Just a quick post for these two ads below that are absolutely the two slimiest I have seen out of either camp this year.

Quote:

Republican Sen. Gordon Smith has enlisted the victim of a serial rapist to appear in an emotional TV ad accusing his Democratic rival, Jeff Merkley, of failing to crack down on serious sex offenders.

Tiffany Edens, who became well-known in Oregon as she fought convicted rapist Richard Troy Gillmore’s attempt to win parole, charges that Merkley voted in the state Legislature against extending the statute of limitations on rape.

“Jeff Merkley,” Edens says, staring into the camera as the commercial concludes, “you should have voted to protect victims, not rapists.”

Video below the jump…

Oregon Race Chart: A September Look

The following is my look at the races in Oregon this fall, from statewide down to state legislative and excluding ballot measures. Unlike my previous updates, I rank each race within its category, rather than by district number.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://loadedorygun.net/showDi…

Data Sources:

The Most Recent Voter Registration Data is at: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/jul08.pdf

Candidate information comes from ORESTAR: https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/jsp/CEMainPage.jsp?CONTENT_PAGE=cf/CFSearchPage.jsp

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2.05 Million.

Democrats: 42% (+210k vs. Republicans)

Republicans: 33%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 25%.

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party. All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.

Party Key:

D=Democratic

R=Republican

G=Pacific Green

C=Constitution

L=Libertarian

I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).

N=Unaffiliated, otherwise known as Independents.

P=Peace Party (Ralph Nader’s Oregon party).

Ratings:

Tossup-Margin less than 3%.

Lean-3-10% margin.

Likely-11-20% margin.

Safe-More than 20% margin.

Inc=Incumbent, Int=Interim Incumbent (Someone appointed to fill a seat until the next election due typically to resignation of the previous holder. State law allows the party which held the seat to essentially appoint the replacement. For example, when my State Senator resigned to take a job as the leader of a moderate Business Lobbying group, as a Precinct Committee Person I was entitled to vote for his replacement, which was then ratified by the County Commission).\

Rankings:

Within each category, the highest rated seat is the one considered closest. E.g. the highest rate seat in the tossup category is considered the most of a “tossup”.

Statewide Races:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Ralph Nader (P), Cynthia McKinney (G), Bob Barr (L) and Chuck Baldwin (C).

Summary: Its September now and I have yet to see any ads by either campaign. However, the Obama folks are clearly on the ground in this state and McCain has just as clearly made now effort. Count 7 EVs for the Big O, the only question is the margin.

Rating: Leans to Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D) and David Brownlow (C).

Summary: Smith, the DSCC and Merkley are busy slinging mostly negative ads at each other. In fact, only Merkley is really running any positive ads at this point as Smith’s only positive ad is an issue ad on health care sponsored by a major business group. This race has not been polled for a while so I would guess Smith is still sightly ahead. Yet, the dynamics of this state make this race a tossup.

Rating: Tossup.

Secretary of State

Candidates: State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown (D) vs. Eugene TV Reporter Rick Dancer (R) and Seth Allan Wooley (G).

Summary: Kate Brown is going to absolutely kick the crap out of Dancer. Dancer isn’t even that good of a candidate. On an early appearance on Lars Larson’s talk radio program (he’s a well known conservative for those who don’t know), he seemed unaware of much of what the SOS actually does.

Rating: Likely to Safe Brown.

Attorney General

John Kroger (D) faces only minor party candidates and should cruise.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R) and Michael Marsh (C)

Summary: It is always so fan to see the Republicans go after Westlund, who used to be one of them until he saw the light. Ben has the support of those on both sides of the aisle and should cruise to an easy victory here. Not to mention Alley’s own problems as well (he ran his company into the ground).

Rating: Likely to Safe Westlund.

Labor Commissioner (Technically a nonpartisan race, 2 year vacancy filling election)

Candidates: Former State Senator Brad Avakian (D-inc.) vs. Founder, Instructor/Provider of a physical and mental fitness program Pavel Goberman (D) and Losing CD1 Candidate Mark Welzycko (D).

Summary: Avakian should have little trouble, given his status as a well known figure in state politics.

Rating: Safe Avakian.

Congressional Races:

Safe Races:

1st-District 2: Walden (R-inc) will have little trouble. If the margin is under 10% that’s a victory for the Ds.

2nd-District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc) is well-loved in this district and for good reason.

3rd-District 4: DeFazio (D-inc) faces only minor party opposition.

Likely Races:

1st-District 1: Wu (D-inc) should have little trouble with Joel Haugen abandoning the Republcian party to run as a member of the Independent Party. The Republicans do not have a candidate.

Lean Races:

1st and only-District 5

Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).

Registration Info: 165k Ds, 144k Rs, 88k NP/Others.

Summary: Time was this was considered one of the most contentious house races in the country. Then three things happened. First, the Obama registration boost changed this district from one with a very slight D edge to a somewhat substantial one. Second, Kevin Mannix, who lost the R primary to Erickson, accused Erickson, who had claimed he was pro-life, of paying for a former girlfriend’s abortion. This assertion was proven to be at least somewhat true and the resulting turmoil, along with some other recent discoveries has knocked Erickson well behind the pace. Then, to add to Erickson’s pain came the discovery that he had made a trip to Cuba that appears to be nothing more than a glorified vacation. Schrader just went on the air and Erickson doesn’t appear to be contesting this one too much. Still, he can self-finance enough that this race can’t be upgraded for the Ds.

Rating: Leans Schrader.

Oregon Legislature:

Note: Races within the “Safe” category are not ranked.

Oregon Senate

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D).

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

Lean Races:

1st-27 (Bend)

Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican). That being said, I think its far more possible that a hold could occur now given the blue trend of Deschutes County, the center of this district.

Outlook: Leans Telfer.

2nd-9 (Stayton)

Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).

Registration: R+4k.

Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs. Girod still has the edge though.

Outlook: Leans Girod.

3rd-12 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Brian Boquist (R) vs. Kevin Nortness (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: The Rs had to scramble to get Boquist to run for this fairly safe seat. This district is certainly changing but I don’t know if it is changing fast enough or if Nortness is a good enough candidate to replace the well-known Boquist.

Outlook: Leans Boquist.

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 20 R, 8 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn’t find an opponent for her.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

21 (Salem)-Clem (D).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).

29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).

43 (Portland)-Shields (D).

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).

Lean Races:

1st-26 (Wilsonville)

Candidates: Matt Wingard (R-int.) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap. In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for hitting his children before. The Repubs were panicked enough that incumbent Jerry Krummel resigned so that Wingard could go in as the “incumbent”. Wingard also raised a few eyebrows when he sent out a “legislative update” mere days after taking office, despite the fact that he had not yet voted on a single bill or even attended a committee hearing (h/t to Loaded O for this: Wingard: I Can Haz Spend Ur Money, C?). My heart tells me this will be close but my head tells me that Wingard still has a slight edge.

Outlook: Leans Wingard.

2nd-19 (Salem)

Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).

Registration: R+ less than 1k

Summary: This is a district that should be more competitive than it has in the past. Cameron is vulnerable, especially to a good candidate such as Day. Interesting fact, Cameron runs the cafeteria that operates in the basement of the Oregon Capitol that I ate in probably three times a week during the 2005 session. Let’s just say, his food is much better than he is as a legislator but this is still a historically R-leaning district so he has the edge.

Outlook: Leans Cameron.

3rd-49 (Gresham)

Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).

Registration: D+4.5k

Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district. Republicans think Kahl is a lightweight because he’s young and relatively inexperienced. They’re wrong, he’s a great candidate, especially with the youth voter empowerment machine known as the Oregon Bus Project (http://busproject.org/) on his side. With Mannix out of the picture, this should be a D pickup, especially with the substantial D edge in this district, if they vote, which they did not in 2006.

Outlook: Leans Kahl.

4th-30 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: The Republicans are all excited that Duyck is going to be their candidate here. The well-known Washington County Commissioner is a solid candidate but this is not the Hillsboro that existed ten or even five years ago. It has taken a solid blue turn and add to that the fact that Edwards survived some of the most vicious smears of any candidate in 2006 and still won to give him a slight edge. This is by far the best Republican chance for a pickup though.

Outlook: Leans Edwards.

5th-23 (Dallas)

Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: This open seat battle could be one for the books. That being said, I have to give the edge to Thompson for now because it is an R-leaning district.

Outlook: Leans Thompson.

6th-18 (Silverton)

Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D/I).

Registration: R+2.2k

Summary: Jim Gilbert is back for another attempt at an upset here. This is clearly his best chance yet but it won’t be easy. If the Repubs lose this district, it will have been a big night.

Outlook: Leans Gilliam.

7th-59 (The Dalles)

Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).

Registration: R+1k

Summary: This was the district that shocked everyone in 2006 as it was almost a D pickup. However, I think Huffman will not be caught unaware as a result, though an upset is possible.

Outlook: Leans Huffman.

8th-15 (Albany)

Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).

Registration: D and R even

Summary: This district was not on anyone’s list but mine two years ago as potentially competitive. Now with an even registration mix, a chance for an upset is there. Olson, a former State Policeman, has the edge at this point though.

Outlook: Leans Olson.

9th-17 (Scio)

Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset. Add to that the fact that Sprenger has never won a general election here. Still, this is definitely a district with an R tilt, so it’ll be an uphill battle.

Outlook: Leans Sprenger.

10th-9 (Coos Bay)

Candidates: Arnie Roblan (D-inc.) vs. Al Pearn (R).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: This 2006 rematch should not be any different than the last one. Roblan has a good read on this district and should win his easiest battle yet.

Outlook: Leans Roblan.

11th-6 (Medford)

Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win. My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.

Outlook: Leans Esquivel.

12th-7 (Roseburg)

Candidates: Bruce Hanna (R-inc) vs. Donald Nordin (D).

Registration: R+1.4k

Summary: This would be my shocker of the year if an upset happened. This district, which has been solidly red for decades, or so it seems, has seen a huge drop in the Republican registration edge. Hanna is also not the greatest politician in the world to begin with but still has an edge here. He also has a huge cash edge as the minority leader from the OR House.

Outlook: Leans Hanna.

13th-22 (Woodburn)

Candidates: Betty Komp (D-inc.) vs. Tom Chereck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: I have to put this as competitive because its Woodburn. However, Komp has really done a great job in this district and should win pretty easily. Interestingly, this district has the lowest number of registered voters in the state, likely due to the large number of undocumented workers living here.

Outlook: Leans Komp.

Tossup Races:

1st-39 (Canby)

Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Kossack Mike Caudle almost pulled off a major upset here in 2006 against the then R-leader Wayne Scott. As an open seat race, this one is too close to call. Both candidates are well known and respected in the community. This one should be very close.

Outlook: Tossup.

2nd-52 (Corbett)

Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland. This is a dead tossup district this year and should be fun to watch. If I had to guess, I’d give a very slight edge to VanOrman right now.

Outlook: Tossup.

3rd-54 (Bend)

Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).

Registration: D+1.5k

Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years thanks largely to an influx of California retirees. This could well be the year Stiegler, who barely lost to Burley in an open seat race here four years ago, breaks through and wins it.

Outlook: Tossup.

4th-50 (Fairview)

Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery. He should be in for the fight of his life this year with this district clearly trending blue.

Outlook: Tossup.

5th-51 (Clackamas)

Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores. Barton has as good a chance as anyone and has huge financial backing. I’m moving this race to tossup for that reason alone.

Outlook: Tossup.

6th-20 (Independence/Monmouth)

Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc.) vs. Richard Riggs (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy. She’s in for fight for her life this time due much more to both the state of the Republican party and the slight D registration edge though.

Outlook: Tossup.

7th-37 (West Linn)

Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).

Registration: D+ less than 1k.

Summary: Bruun is a well-known figure in this district; his family has run a construction business for over 100 years in the area. Still, this year he will have to fight hard to keep this swing district, which now has a very slight D edge.

Outlook: Tossup.

8th-24 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006. If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here.

Outlook: Tossup.

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.

Fun with the OR Voters’ Pamphlet: Ballot Measure Edition

This is the second part in my two-part series having a little bit of fun with the Oregon Voters’ Pamphlet. This part discusses the main arguments presented by each side in every contested ballot measure and then dissects them for pure comedic value.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The Oregon Voters’ Pamphlet is currently posted at: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/nov42008/military_vp.html

Please note that this is the “Military/Overseas” edition and as such is a bit rough (it is basically scanned in PDFs).

For a more serious look at these measures, see my diary from a few weeks back: The Final Oregon Ballot: Game On!

For each measure I present each side’s major arguments and list the number of arguments filed for and against. I then analyze and make fun of these arguments.

Note: These are obviously gross exaggerations of some of these arguments so bear with me. I focus on the main argument for each side, but multiple arguments do exist for/against most measures.

For the record, this is how I personally will vote on each measure:

54: Yes.

55: Yes.

56: Yes.

57: Yes.

58: No.

59: No.

60: No.

61: No.

62: No.

63: No.

64: No.

65: No.

Oregon’s Ballot Measures:

Measure Summary:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 54 (C):

Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

No arguments filed for or against.

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

No arguments filed for or against.

Yes Argument: The Double Majority Law basically means that measures that would otherwise pass fail because people don’t vote.

The Real Argument: We’re losing because people don’t vote.

No Argument: The Double Majority Law protects taxpayers from being abused by local governments who may repeatedly sneak ballot measures past them until they pass.

The Real Argument: We hate taxes and we know that the only people likely to vote in non-general elections are those that support taxes.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 23/6.

Yes Argument: Kevin Mannix’s crime bill costs too much because it requires building of too many prisons and focuses on punishment and not treatment.

The Real Argument: Mannix’s measure will pass if we don’t propose this measure so that’s exactly what we’re doing. We can’t really afford this one either but we are in less deep sh-t if we pass this one than Mannix’s.

No Argument: This measure is just a kiss-off designed by politicians to appear that they are doing something when they are in fact not to prevent crime.

The Real Argument: We want everyone who has ever committed any real crime at all locked away forever. Rehabilitation, forget it. If Jean Villejean of Les Miserables fame stole bread under this measure, he’d get hard time and we don’t want any excuses about why he did it.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Yes Argument: Children of immigrants learn English best and integrate best into our society if they have English immersion, not ESL.

The Real Argument: Learn English you Mex-I-Cans! This is A-Mer-ika and you dang well better speak it rather than that there Espan-Yol….

No Argument: It costs too much and is not effective to force English immersion on new immigrants and their children.

The Real Argument: The other side is a bunch of racist f-ers and we shouldn’t listen to them.

Yes Argument: Allowing a full federal deduction saves taxpayers money and thus stimulates the economy.

The Real Argument: Allowing a full federal deduction saves rich people money (the current deduction covers most middle class folks).

No Argument: This deduction is unnecessary and would blow a huge hole in the state budget.

The Real Argument: This deduction would cost a whole lot of state jobs, including teachers. cops and firefighters. You like teachers, cops and firefighters don’t you?

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 6/26.

Yes Argument: We should focus on retaining the best teachers, not simply those that have been there the longest.

The Real Argument: We want another excuse to cut teachers we don’t like.

No Argument: Merit pay doesn’t work because it is difficult to measure student performance.

The Real Argument: We’re used to the seniority system and we want to keep it.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 7/19.

Yes Argument: Those committing low level drug and property crimes get off too easy nowadays.

The Real Argument: Measure 11 (Mannix’s Mandatory Minimum Measure) worked so well at increasing the need for prisons, why not go for broke?

No Argument: This law is overly punitive, most of these folks need treatment, not jail.

The Real Argument: We can’t afford this measure, it’s as simple as that.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 6/10.

Yes Argument: If we want real crime prevention, we need a stable funding source like the lottery.

The Real Argument: This also takes away money from those pesky public schools to boot, we don’t like public schools that much.

No Argument: This would decrease funding for other programs, parks and schools mainly, funded by the lottery.

The Real Argument: Gambling has been funding us for a long time and we can’t afford to lose any money from people who are foolish enough to play the lottery.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 6/24.

Yes Argument: Right now, in order to make minor building changes to your home or business, you need to get a pesky permit. This should not be so.

The Real Argument: This is a backhanded way of starving local governments that depend on permit revenue and thus decreasing the size of government. Oh and we hate pesky permitting requirements for the most part too.

No Argument: Permit requirements are there for our own good and safety.

The Real Argument: Local governments rely so heavily on permit revenues that we can’t afford to lose them.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 7/30.

Yes Argument: Since public employee unions work for the public, they should not be involved in any way in politics.

The Real Argument: Public employee unions are the single biggest source of funding for the Oregon D’s and this way we can kill the Democrats $ source.

No Argument: People can already opt out of their dues being spent on political campaigns. This is just a backhanded way to destroy our influence.

The Real Argument: We lose a lot of our power if this measure passes.

Yes Argument: The top two primary makes sense because it allows the top two candidates regardless of party affiliation to advance to the general election, allowing for choice and encouraging turnout in the primary.

The Real Argument: We don’t like the control parties have our the primaries.

No Argument: The top two primary doesn’t increase turnout and actually decreases the chance a third-party candidate will make it to the general election. If you want to vote in a primary, register as a member of a political party.

The Real Argument: The Republican and Democratic parties don’t want to lose control of their nominating processes.

Let me know what you think.

Fun with the OR Voters’ Pamphlet: Candidate Edition

The following is the first of two parts reviewing the fun, the interesting and the just plain odd in Oregon’s Voters’ Pamphlet this year. Think of this as a bit of humor to brighten your days.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The Oregon Voters’ Pamphlet is currently posted at: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/nov42008/military_vp.html.

Please note that this is the “Military/Overseas” edition and as such is a bit rough (it is basically scanned in PDFs).

For each candidate I will present their main message (for Rs and any fun third party folks), and my thoughts on what they are really saying. Candidates are Rs unless otherwise indicated.

President:

McCain

What he says: Washington in broken.

What he means: I broke Washington and you fools expect me to fix it.

Nader (Peace Party)

What he says: Only I can fight for these issues that you care about.

What he means: I can do this because I apparently don’t read any newspapers and have a huge ego.

US Senate:

Smith

What he says: I am a centrist who supports both the Republican and Democrat (he spells it that way) parties.

What he means: HA HA, you fools, I love playing moderate for two years so I can be a typical Repub for four.

US Congress

2nd District

Walden

What he says: Being environmentally responsible is good for all of us.

What he means: Drilling and clear-cutting are good for all of us.

3rd District

Lopez

What she says: Local government is best.

What she means: But I want to be part of the federal government because they have all the $.

5th District

Erickson

What he says: I ran a business so I can run a government.

What he means: I hope to God people don’t remember how much of a hypocrite I am, I mean that trip to Cuba was a bit shady…

Secretary of State

Dancer

What he says: I want a nonpartisan Secretary of State.

What he means: Because that’s the only way a Republican will ever win this office.

State Treasurer:

Alley

What he says: I have run a business so I can run the state.

What he means: I hope to God people don’t know I ran my business (Pixelworks) into the ground (The price of the stock has dropped from $9/share two years ago to $1.60 now and was worth $60/share in 2004).

State Legislature:

I only profile selected races here due to space (e.g. those that are most humorous.

State Senate:

2nd District

Atkinson

What he says: I am a smart, independent and principled leader.

What he means: Yet I managed to shoot myself in the knee while fixing a friend’s bike.

14th District (My District)

Michaels

What she says; Vote by mail is rife with voter fraud (it’s not actually).

What she means: I don’t like vote by mail because it means Republicans lose.

State House:

9th District

Pearn

What he says: Government regulation has cost Oregon jobs.

What he means: I hate government, I want to drown it in a bath tub.

22nd District

Chereck (link to his bat-shit crazy post: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/nov42008/military_vp/chere_t.pdf)

What he says: Following God is the way to govern.

What he means: I want a theocracy.

Note: This guy is f-ing crazy. Among other things, he lists that he has a social security card and is married. He also lists “The Bible” as part of his education, as well as “Pesticide application recertification training”.

36th District

Oppenheimer

What he says: My ideas should become law.

What he means: I know I have no chance to win, so why don’t I just propose the craziest things possible?

52nd District

Lindland

What he says: I’m not a normal politician.

What he means: If people f-k with me, I’ll use all my UFC skills against them, like in this video (except I won’t lose this time):

Let me know what you think…

Money Talks: Who’s Funding Oregon’s Ballot Measures?

The following diary discusses whom is behind the campaigns to pass and defeat every single one of Oregon’s ballot measures this fall. It discusses who is funding them and what their political leanings are.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Data from: ORESTAR

Measure Summary:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

Measure 56 (S):

Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Who’s Involved?:

Note: I am doing this down here because some groups support/oppose multiple measures and so it’s simpler to do it this way. Also note that the person listed as “leading” each group is simply the treasurer of the committee.

Committee to Protect Local Control of Schools-No on 58-led by known Democratic Activist Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Defend Oregon-Yes on 56 and 57, No on 58-64, led by Kevin Neely:

Contributions: $500k.

Expenditures: $620k.

COH: -$120k.

Largest Contributor: Oregon State Council of Service Employees-$455k.

Don’t Pay to the Test-No on 60, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Don’t Silence our Voice-No on 64, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

No Way to Fight Crime-No on 61, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Oregon Anti-Crime Alliance PAC, No on 57, Yes on 61 and 62, led by Kevin Mannix (R):

Contributions: $76k.

Expenditures: $60k.

COH: $16k.

Largest Contributor: Loren Parks, a crazy “sex therapist” originally from Oregon, now lives in Vegas-$75k.

Oregonians Against Unfair Elections, No on 65, led by Kevin Neely:

Contributions: $2,250.

Expenditures: $1,500.

COH: $750.

Largest Contributor: Loan from PacWest Communications-$2,250.

Oregonians Against Unsafe Housing, No on 63, led by Kevin Neely:

Contributions: $150k.

Expenditures: $10k.

COH: $140k.

Largest Contributor: Barnes Labor Management Cooperative Committee-$100k.

PAC 483, No on 59 and 64, led by Donna Bandeen, a longtime D activist:

Contributions: $9k.

Expenditures: $500.

COH: $8.5k.

Largest Contributor: Portlanders for Accountability (a union-backed group formed to fight changes to Portland’s city charter last year)-$5k.

The Better Way to Fight Crime Commitee, Yes on 57, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Voting Matters, Yes on 56, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Vote Yes on 65 Make Every Voter Count, Yes on 65, led by Michael Greenfield, a management consultant, minimal COH.

Let me know what you think. There may be other groups, the Taxpayer Association of Oregon for one has yet to officially jump in, but this is it for now.

Oregon’s Republican Delegates: Who are these fools?

The following is a brief summary of whom the Oregon Republican delegates are that are supposedly going to Minneapolis/St. Paul this week for their convention. Obviously, I send along my most fervent prayers (even though I’m a Unitarian) for the victims of Hurricane Gustav not only those in the US who are yet to be hit but those throughout the Caribbean. Still, they should at least nominate McSame and I thought it would be fun to discover who these people are.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

I will admit that I know more about the McCain delegates than the Ron Paul ones so bear with me. Where I don’t know much and can’t find much I write “political activist”. These profiles ARE slanted and so I am a bit aggressive perhaps (like calling people xenophobes) in the name of fun….

Statewide McCain:

Bob Avery — Junction City-Legislative Assistant to State House Minority Leader Bruce Hanna (R).

Russ Walker — Keizer-Head of Oregon FreedomWatch, Oregon’s own Grover Norquist spinoff.

Tim Nashif — Portland-Leader of the yes on Measure 36 (Gay Marriage Ban) campaign in 2004.

Gregory Wooldridge — Portland-Former Naval Officer and head of OR Veterans for McCain. You may remember him because he was a front person for McSame in the Wesley Clark response.

Donna Cain — Rogue River-Republican party fundraiser and fake PUMA (she gave $225 to HRC early this year according to Open Secrets).

Kevin Mannix — Salem-Former multiple-statewide loser and mandatory minimum activist.

Marylin Shannon — Brooks-Former State Senator, current leader of an organization that just tried to overturn Oregon’s new domestic partnership and equal rights for GLBT laws…

Jeffery A. Grossman — Beaverton-Drill, drill drill activist and software security specialist.

Ron Paul At Large Delegates

Elaine Smith — Prairie City-Attorney.

Ivan Cermak — Selma-Political Activist.

Keith Kaiser — Wilsonville-Political activist.

Marc Lucca — Stayton-Former state rep candidate and legislative aide. (Personal Note: When I worked in the legislature I worked next to the office he was then working for, he’s a good guy if really conservative).

Congressional District 1 Delegates

James L. Ellison — Portland-Political Activist.

Sherri L. Grossman — Beaverton-Schools activist, believes strongly that modern society is breaking down the “family unit”.

Barbara Tennent Anderson — Portland-Political Activist.

Congressional District 2 Delegates

Jeannetta Garner — Nyssa-2nd District OR GOP Leader.

Ron Maurer — Grants Pass-State Rep.

Dennis Tooley — Redmond-Member of Board of Directors for Dorchester (OR GOP annual conference).

Congressional District 3 Delegates

Linda Flores — Clackamas-St. Rep/Anti-immigrant activist.

Jay Kushner — Portland-Multiple time loser candidate in deep blue Portland.

James Anderson — Troutdale-GOP Fundraier.

Congressional District 4 Delegates

Nina Avery — Junction City-Former Campaign Worker for Jim Feldkamp (who lost OR-4 to DeFazio in 2004 and 2006).

Jeff Osanka — Eugene-Neighborhood Activist in the Fairmont neighborhood in Eugene.

Melyssa Swartz-Baxter — Eugene-Wife of a soldier who was injured by an IED in Iraq.

Congressional District 5 Delegates

Wayne Brady — Salem-Retired Aerospace Engineer and regular contributor to multiple OR conservative blogs….

Greg Leo — Aurora-Parks activist (as in actually pro-Parks).

Andrea Hofmann — Keizer-Oregon Federation of Republican Women Leader.

Automatic Delegates

Vance Day — Salem-State Party Chair.

June Hartley — Nyssa-Committeewoman.

Solomon Yue — Salem-Committeeman.

The Final Oregon Ballot: Game On!

Yesterday was the deadline for submitting minor party candidates and replacing withdrawn major party candidates for the Oregon ballot this fall. Below you will find my review of the races from the statewide elections to ballot measures and all the way down to state legislative races. Take a break from convention coverage and read on!

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Data Sources:

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2.05 Million.

Democrats: 42% (+210k vs. Republicans)

Republicans: 33%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 25%.

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

Other Notes:

There is currently a lawsuit pending to require the SOS to list if candidates have been nominated by multiple parties. For example, Jeff Merkley would appear as (D,I) since he has been nominated by both the Dems and the Independent Party. I list any cross-nominations as they are posted in ORESTAR.

Statewide Races:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Ralph Nader (P), Cynthia McKinney (G), Bob Barr (L) and Chuck Baldwin (C).

Summary: The fact that McCain isn’t even trying to contest Oregon says a lot. It would be a reach for him at best. Obama, on the other hand, sent a bunch of the Obama fellows here a few weeks ago and is ramping up for the fall. I really don’t think Nader, who snuck on the Oregon ballot through the back door, will have much impact.

Rating: Leans to Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D/I) and David Brownlow (C).

Summary: Smith is at best slightly ahead but is clearly struggling. Forced already to blow A LOT of cash on what I refer to as “Furnituregate”, I don’t know if he made that much of an impact. Merkley is running about the best campaign I’ve ever seen anyone run in this state.

Rating: Tossup.

Attorney General

John Kroger (D) faces only minor party candidates and should cruise.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D/I) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R) and Michael Marsh (C)

Summary: It is always so fan to see the Republicans go after Westlund, who used to be one of them until he saw the light. Ben has the support of those on both sides of the aisle and should cruise to an easy victory here. Not to mention Alley’s own problems as well…

Rating: Likely to Safe Westlund.

Ballot Measures:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

Outlook: Safe Yes.

Measure 56 (S):

Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.

Known Opposition: Taxpayer Association of Oregon (Far Right), Bill Sizemore (Sponsor of all things extremely libertarian).

Outlook: Likely Yes, the legislature’s approval should allow this one to win pretty easily. The game is clearly on over this measure but I doubt it’ll have trouble.

Measure 57 (S):

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative. Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Known Opposition: Kevin Mannix and his crew.

Outlook: Leans Yes, my guess is that with both on the ballot, Mannix’s extreme measure will fail when compared to this one.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Known Opposition: I would think a lot of progressive groups will mobilize against this one.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, I think the racist anti-immigrant folks will discover that they have limited political power after this one fails. However, it is impossible to know exactly how this will turn out because this is the first immigration measure to make the ballot here.

Measure 59 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns. This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Known Opposition: A leading coalition of progressive groups will once again mobilize against this one.

Outlook: Likely No, the good news is that although Sizemore can qualify measures, he can’t pass them. This proposal has failed by increasingly wider margins every time it’s been proposed.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Known Opposition: The Oregon Education Association will doubtless go all out against this measure.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, in 2000 a similar measure was rejected with 65% of the vote. Given the more favorable political climate for education since then, this one will likely fail.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Known Opposition: Most of the Legislature for one (See Measure 57) as well as most of the moderate and progressive groups in the state.

Outlook: Leans No, with the competing measure by the legislature, this one may go down, which is good because without the legislative measure it would likely pass.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Known Opposition: The current groups that receive lottery funds, schools and parks, have opposed this.

Outlook: Tossup, IMHO a bad idea but measures like this have fared pretty well in the past.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Known Opposition: None but anything Sizemore proposes won’t stay without opposition for long.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, I don’t get this one but Sizemore’s name on the measure should be good enough to kill it.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Known Opposition: The progressive movement in this state will mobilize to kill this one.

Outlook: Likely No, Sizemore=without power, Public Employee Unions=Powerful, enough said.

Measure 65 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Known Opposition: Both the Oregon D’s and R’s oppose this strongly.

Outlook: Leans No, the state parties will spend a lot of $ to kill it, so I’ll list it as leans no for now. Also the Oregonian is endorsing it, which typically means it’ll lose (the Oregonian has a history of endorsing losing candidates/propositions).

Congressional Races:

District 1: Wu (D-inc) will cruise.

District 2: Walden (R-inc) will have little trouble. If the margin is under 10% that’s a victory for the Ds.

District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc) is well-loved in this district and for good reason.

District 4: DeFazio (D-inc) is unopposed.

District 5

Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).

Registration Info: 165k Ds, 144k Rs, 88k NP/Others.

Summary: Time was this was considered one of the most contentious house races in the country. Then three things happened. First, the Obama registration boost changed this district from one with a very slight D edge to a somewhat substantial one. Second, Kevin Mannix, who lost the R primary to Erickson, accused Erickson, who had claimed he was pro-life, of paying for a former girlfriend’s abortion. This assertion was proven to be at least somewhat true and the resulting turmoil, along with some other recent discoveries has knocked Erickson well behind the pace. Then, to add to Erickson’s pain came the discovery that he had made a trip to Cuba that appears to be nothing more than a glorified vacation. If this were Florida he’d be done but it’s not and he can self-finance enough to make this competitive, meaning I’ll leave it in the “Lean” category for now.

Rating: Leans Schrader.

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Ratings changes since last update:

Dist 9 and 12 from Likely/Lean R to Lean R.

Dist. 14 to noncompetitive because this is my district and I have yet to see any campaign by the Repub.

The following districts are competitive, or at least potentially competitive.

9 (Stayton)

Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).

Registration: R+4k.

Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs. Girod still has the edge though.

Outlook: Leans Girod.

12 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Brian Boquist (R) vs. Kevin Nortness (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: The Rs had to scramble to get Boquist to run for this fairly safe seat. This district is certainly changing but I don’t know if it is changing fast enough or if Nortness is a good enough candidate to replace the well-known Boquist.

Outlook: Leans Boquist.

27 (Bend)

Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican). That being said, I think its far more possible that a hold could occur now given the blue trend of Deschutes County, the center of this district.

Outlook: Leans Telfer.

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 20 R, 8 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.

Ratings Changes since last update:

District 29 (Riley) moved to noncompetitive due to disqualification of his Republican opponent on the grounds he did not actually live in the district.

District 35 (Galizio) moved to noncompetitive because his Republican opponent has turned out to be a complete loser.

District 38 (Garrett) moved to noncompetitive because although Steve Griffith is a personal friend of mine and in a normal year might have a shot in this blue district running as a moderate to liberal R, the registration disadvantage he faces is simply too big for him to overcome.

District 51 (Flores) moved from Lean R to tossup because of her Democratic opponent’s fundraising advantage…

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

The following seats are competitive:

6 (Medford)

Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win. My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.

Outlook: Leans Esquivel.

7 (Roseburg)

Candidates: Bruce Hanna (R-inc) vs. Donald Nordin (D).

Registration: R+1.4k

Summary: This would be my shocker of the year if an upset happened. This district, which has been solidly red for decades, or so it seems, has seen a huge drop in the Republican registration edge. Hanna is also not the greatest politician in the world to begin with but still has an edge here. He also has a huge cash edge as the minority leader from the OR House.

Outlook: Leans Hanna.

9 (Coos Bay)

Candidates: Arnie Roblan (D-inc.) vs. Al Pearn (R).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: This 2006 rematch should not be any different than the last one. Roblan has a good read on this district and should win his easiest battle yet.

Outlook: Leans Roblan.

15 (Albany)

Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).

Registration: D and R even

Summary: This district was not on anyone’s list but mine two years ago as potentially competitive. Now with an even registration mix, a chance for an upset is there. Olson, a former State Policeman, has the edge at this point though.

Outlook: Leans Olson.

17 (Scio)

Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset. Add to that the fact that Sprenger has never won a general election here. Still, this is definitely a district with an R tilt, so it’ll be an uphill battle.

Outlook: Leans Sprenger.

18 (Silverton)

Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D/I).

Registration: R+2.2k

Summary: Jim Gilbert is back for another attempt at an upset here. This is clearly his best chance yet but it won’t be easy. If the Repubs lose this district, it will have been a big night.

Outlook: Leans Gilliam.

19 (Salem)

Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).

Registration: R+ less than 1k

Summary: This is a district that should be more competitive than it has in the past. With a lack of need to defend their own seats, this may become a democratic target, making an upset possible.

Outlook: Leans Cameron.

20 (Independence/Monmouth)

Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc./I) vs. Richard Riggs (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy. She’s in for fight for her life this time due much more to both the state of the Republican party and the slight D registration edge though.

Outlook: Tossup.

22 (Woodburn)

Candidates: Betty Komp (D-inc.) vs. Tom Chereck (R).

Registration: D+2k.

Summary: I have to put this as competitive because its Woodburn. However, Komp has really done a great job in this district and should win pretty easily. Interestingly, this district has the lowest number of registered voters in the state, likely due to the large number of undocumented workers living here.

Outlook: Leans Komp.

23 (Dallas)

Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: This open seat battle could be one for the books. That being said, I have to give the edge to Thompson for now because it is an R-leaning district.

Outlook: Leans Thompson.

24 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006. If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here. Call it a tossup.

Outlook: Tossup.

26 (Wilsonville)

Candidates: Matt Wingard (R-int.) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap. In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for hitting his children before. The Repubs were panicked enough that incumbent Jerry Krummel resigned so that Wingard could go in as the “incumbent”. This is still Wilsonville though, so it’s an R lean for now.

Outlook: Leans Wingard.

30 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: The Republicans are all excited that Duyck is going to be their candidate here. The well-known Washington County Commissioner is a solid candidate but this is not the Hillsboro that existed ten or even five years ago. It has taken a solid blue turn and add to that the fact that Edwards survived some of the most vicious smears of any candidate in 2006 and still won to give him a slight edge.

Outlook: Leans Edwards.

37 (West Linn)

Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).

Registration: D+ less than 1k.

Summary: Bruun is a well-known figure in this district; his family has run a construction business for over 100 years in the area. Still, this year he will have to fight hard to keep this swing district, which now has a very slight D edge.

Outlook: Tossup.

39 (Canby)

Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).

Registration: D+ 1k

Summary: Kossack Mike Caudle almost pulled off a major upset here in 2006 against the then R-leader Wayne Scott. As an open seat race, this one is too close to call. Both candidates are well known and respected in the community.

Outlook: Tossup.

49 (Gresham)

Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).

Registration: D+4.5k

Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district. Republicans think Kahl is a lightweight because he’s young and relatively inexperienced. They’re wrong, he’s a great candidate, especially with the youth voter empowerment machine known as the Oregon Bus Project (http://busproject.org/) on his side. With Mannix out of the picture, this should be a D pickup, especially with the substantial D edge in this district.

Outlook: Leans Kahl.

50 (Fairview)

Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery. He should be in for the fight of his life this year with this district clearly trending blue.

Outlook: Tossup.

51 (Clackamas)

Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores. Barton has as good a chance as anyone and has huge financial backing. I’m moving this race to tossup for that reason alone.

Outlook: Tossup.

52 (Corbett)

Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland. This is a dead tossup district this year and should be fun to watch.

Outlook: Tossup.

54 (Bend)

Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).

Registration: D+1.5k

Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years. This could well be the year Stiegler, who barely lost to Burley in an open seat race here four years ago, breaks through and wins it.

Outlook: Tossup.

59 (The Dalles)

Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).

Registration: R+1k

Summary: This was the district that shocked everyone in 2006 as it was almost a D pickup. However, I think Huffman will not be caught unaware as a result, though an upset is possible.

Outlook: Leans Huffman.

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.

Cuba Libre: Republican Mike Erickson (OR-5) and his Cuba Vacation

I had been hearing rumors from friends who work for the Oregonian that a major story was about to break concerning Mike Erickson. I do not know if this story is it but it’s a fun one anyways. Simply put, Mike Erickson claimed that he had taken a trip to Cuba in 2004 as an attempt to work with humanitarian organizations. Instead, it appears that instead he used it as an excuse to have a good time, smoke a lot of Cuban cigars and have some fun cock fighting.

Major h/t to the Oregonian for this story: http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2008/08/mike_ericksons_trip_to_cuba.html#comments

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

According to the Oregonian:

Mike Erickson, Republican candidate for the U.S. House, made a six-day visit to Cuba in 2004 that he described as a “humanitarian trip” to help disabled Cubans oppressed by Fidel Castro. But the visit was actually a vacation that included marlin fishing, nightclub visits and Cuban cigars.

, Link is above in the intro.

In a letter released to the Press, Erickson claims that he undertook this trip as a means to bring needed medical supplies to impoverished Cubans and that he observed first hand “just how horrific Castro’s stronghold on the nation had oppressed and mistreated people.”

Link to the letter here: http://blog.oregonlive.com/politics_impact/2008/08/IMAGE0001.pdf

His itinerary tells a far different story, however. Instead of a humanitarian mission, it appears Erickson went down to Cuba to attend a cigar convention and have a good time living the life of luxury. In fact, the itinerary seems to indicate that the company which sponsored his trip even provided some in his group (if not Erickson himself) with papers showing they never actually visited Cuba but Mexico. I don’t know enough about the embargo to know whether this is any sort of problem but it sounds wrong at least.

Link to the itinerary here: http://blog.oregonlive.com/politics_impact/2008/08/IMAGE0002.pdf

What’s Next:

This is yet another blow to Erickson’s fast-fading chance to win this once thought to be tossup seat in Oregon. I don’t know this will force Erickson out of the race but he has until August 26 if he wishes to do so, at which point the Republicans can name a replacement.

Let me know what you think.