Author: skywaker9

Both for my own amusement and because I believe it, I am presenting the following list of why all Obama supporters should be Oregon Ducks fans  This list is meant in satire and I apologize in advance to those I may offend/attack (read: Michigan, Washington, USC, Notre Dame and perhaps Oregon State fans).  Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1222

10: Just like Obama, Oregon is always underrated.  No one ever expects us to be good.  In fact, over the last ten years, Oregon is the third most underrated football team in the country, ranking, on average 32.5 spots higher in the final poll of the season than in the pre-season poll.

9: Oregon, like Obama, takes pride in changing the status quo.  Fifteen years ago, no one had heard of Oregon sports, now we are among the best in the country in both football and basketball.  Unlike say Notre Dame, which seems to rest largely on its own past performances.

8: Oregon, like Obama, is an offensive-minded team.  Lead by Dennis Dixon, for example, Oregon’s spread offense last season was among the best in the country.  Just see this play again Michigan as evidence:

7: Oregon, like Obama, is thought of by its detractors as more than a little corny.  While in Obama’s case it is the slogan “Change you can believe in”, in Oregon’s case it is our uniforms, as seen below:

.

6: Even as our opponents cheat, in Obama’s case McCain, in our case, Washington and USC, both Oregon and Obama refuse to do so.  Both of us win regardless, which should be respected.

5: Both Oregon and Obama get smeared as being part of a subversive plot.  While for Obama it is the fake Muslim smear, in Oregon’s it is the accusation that because Phil Knight gives a lot of money to the athletic department he essentially runs it.  Both are untrue and both Oregon and Obama rise above it.

4: Both Oregon and Obama face opponents who don’t know when to quit.  Oregon’s rival Oregon State refuses to accept that it is never going to fully catch-up to the Ducks, especially in basketball, while Hillary took a good long time before quitting.  Even when they have lost, there are some in both cases, that refuse to admit it.

3: Neither Oregon nor Obama stand by and takes sh-t from anybody.  Just like Obama quickly responds to smears leveled against him, Oregon’s mascot last year beat the crap out of Houston’s mascot when it appeared to show the Duck up.  Just watch and you’ll see what I mean:

2: The Yell-O chant Ducks fans do at games can be used for Obama as well.  In fact, it was used during both of Obama’s Eugene rallies this fall.  See an example of it in the video below the next item.

1: Both Oregon and Obama draw large very enthusiastic crowds.  Oregon’s are considered some of the loudest and best in all of college sports, just as Obama’s are in the political arena.  See below for an example (the students are doing the “Yell-O” I mention in the last point):

Let me know what you think.

With the submission of signatures for this year’s Oregon Ballot Measures, I thought I’d run down their chances of making the ballot and what they mean, along with listing those ideas that will not make it this year.  Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun (http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1220).

On July 3, petitioners turned in the last of their required signatures for this year’s crop of proposed ballot initiatives.  The SOS has until about the end of the month to verify whether they are valid or not.

The data sources for most of this come from the SOS’s website at: http://egov.sos.state.or.us/elec/web_irr_search.search_form

Acronyms:

AG: Attorney General.

SOS: Secretary of State.

Some process basics:

Although commonly thought only as an Initiative process, the actual truth is that there are four major types of ballot measures (of which the first three are by far the most common):

Legislative Referrals-Typically these are constitutional modifications but they can be statutory as well (See 2007’s Measure 49, which modified the state’s land use laws as an example).  Depending on the specific measure, they require either a simple majority or, in some cases, a 3/5 majority to get on the ballot.

Citizen Statutory Initiatives-Change or create state law.  They require 82,679 signatures.

Citizen Constitutional Initiatives-Change the Oregon Constitution.  They require 110,358 signatures.

Citizen Referrals-Refer a recently passed law, by the legislature, to the people for a vote, most recently seen in the failed attempts to get votes on the state’s new domestic partnership (civil unions) and GLBT civil rights laws.  They require 55,179 signatures, which must be turned in within 90 days after the law is signed by the Governor.

Signature Verification Method:

Oregon is unique in that it does not generally verify every single signature.  Instead, the SOS randomly samples about 10-15% of the signatures and verifies them against the statewide database.  There are accepted ratios that for every type of violation (such as out of state, not registered and duplicate signatures) that are found, there are likely to be a certain number in the full set.  If a sampling shows a measure may not have enough to qualify, the SOS then takes a second equally sized sample and verifies that.  Typically about 65-75% of signatures submitted for a measure are valid, although non-paid signature gatherers tend to do much better than paid ones.  The recent record for paid signature gatherers is 85-90% by the Christian Right folks, who get such high validity rates by passing around the petitions at churches, where registration is high.

Changes to Oregon’s Initiative Laws:

In response to a number of minor scandals, mostly by conservative groups, the Oregon Legislature passed HB 2082 in 2007, which set down increased requirements for gathering signatures.  Simply put, the requirements  are as follows:

1. Required online training courses and certification for all paid signature gatherers.

2. The state will now provide basic templates for petition signature sheets.  In the past, sheets were given a guide, which was often followed incorrectly, leading to invalidated signatures.

3. 1,000 signatures must now be submitted to get a ballot title (the description that goes on the ballot, widely considered a key part of whether a measure passes or not).  Previously, only 50 signatures were required, leading to “title shopping”, where groups would submit many versions of the same measure to try and get a good ballot title.

4. The requirement that each sheet only contain signatures from persons in only one county is repealed.  This was done because with the new statewide voter registration database, it was an unnecessary restriction.

5. Increased restrictions on signature gatherers related to what they can or can’t do to correct invalid information on a petition sheet.

6. The SOS now serves as the campaign finance organization for all initiatives in the state, including local initiatives.  Previously, the SOS only worked on state level measures.

7. All signature gathering companies are required to maintain and submit regular accounts showing that petitioners were paid in a manner that was not per signature but by hour/day.  This provision has caused a lot of trouble for some initiatives and may well keep some off the ballot.  It is currently being challenged in federal court, but is not expected to be successfully so.

8. All sponsors and signature gathering firms are now held personally liable for the illegal activities of anyone working for/under contract to them.  This is important because up to now only the signature gatherers themselves was liable.

Failed Ideas:

The following measures are a selection of the bad ideas that thankfully will not qualify for this year’s ballot:

Note: All Measures are listed by the Initiative Petition (IP) number.

Key:

S-Statutory Measure

C-Constitutional Measure

22-C: Would have “Made Oregon Constitutional Guarantee Of Free Expression Of Opinion Inapplicable To Conduct Or Personal Behavior”.

23-S: Would have banned any teaching that “promotes GLBT behavior” at public schools and universities.

35-S/36-C: Would have allowed building a casino on the location of the old Multnomah Greyhound track.  The State Constitution currently prohibits casino gambling outside of Indian Reservations (and has since the state’s founding).

78-C: Would have posed a supermajority requirement (3/4) on the legislature for passing a law with an emergency clause.  This is important because laws with an emergency clause are not subject to a referendum petition since they take affect immediately upon their signature by the governor.

105-S: Would have revoked the right of the federal government to own state land, would have reverted such land to the counties for ownership.  This measure was rejected by the AG’s office on the grounds that the state did not have the authority do take this action.

108-C: Would have declared that using public funds to perform abortions is murder.

112-S: Would have basically turned all state workers into federal immigration officers, requiring them to verify status of all they serve.

Measures Submitting Signatures:

This list only includes those measures that had not reached the required number of signatures before I wrote about them last.  For a list of all measures, see this diary: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/25/113448/828/338/541717.

Key:

Validity Rate-Percentage of Signatures found valid in previous submissions.

Required Signature Numbers: Statutory 82,769, Constitutional 110,358.

20-S

Chief Sponsor: Anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore

Summary: Requires teacher pay to be based on “performance” not seniority.

Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 81,149.

Previous Validity Rate: 65%.

Signatures now submitted: 3,784.

Required Validity Rate: 43%.

Will it Qualify: Yes.

41-C

Chief Sponsor: Longtime loser Republican candidate Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Lottery funds to Crime Prevention, Investigation and Prosecution efforts.

Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 102,565.

Previous Validity Rate: 64%.

Signatures now submitted: 18,183.

Required Validity Rate: 43%.

Will it Qualify: Yes.

51-S

Chief Sponsor: Conservative Activist R. Russell Walker.

Summary: Caps Attorneys fees, a classic “tort reform measure”.

Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 68,227

Previous Validity Rate: 64%.

Signatures now submitted: 19,129

Required Validity Rate: 76%.

Will it Qualify: Likely No.

Note: The sponsors for this measure are currently challenging the state’s new initiative requirements, especially those related to providing “accounts” for all signature gathering efforts.  As such, these recently submitted signatures should technically not count since they are not currently in compliance with the law.  However, the SOS has agreed to provisionally count them pending the outcome of the lawsuit.

53-S

Chief Sponsor: Walker.

Summary: Requires sanctioning of attorneys who file “frivolous lawsuits”.

Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 69,263.

Previous Validity Rate: 64%.

Signatures now submitted: 19,383

Required Validity Rate: 70%.

Will it Qualify: Leans No.

Note: As with the last one, these signatures are currently presumed invalid as the sponsors are not in compliance with the initiative requirements posed by the SOS.

109-S

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D).

Summary: Creates an “Open Primary” allowing top two, regardless of party affiliation advance to the general election in most cases.

Valid Signatures Previously Submitted: 69,383.

Validity Rate: 76%.

Signatures now submitted: 27,421.

Required Validity Rate: 49%.

Will it Qualify: Likely Yes.

Let me know what you think.

The following is a preview of the initiatives that are expected to/may qualify for the 2008 fall ballot.  All signatures are due by July 3, 2008 if they have not already been submitted.  Crossposted from Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/25/113448/828/338/541717)

Some Oregon Initiative Basics:

Although commonly thought only as an Initiative process, the actual truth is that there are four major types of ballot measures (of which the first two are by far the most common):

Legislative Referrals-Typically these are constitutional modifications but they can be statutory as well (See 2007’s Measure 49, which modified the state’s land use laws as an example).  Depending on the specific measure, they require either a simple majority or, in some cases, a 3/5 majority to get on the ballot.

Citizen Statutory Initiatives-Change or create state law.  They require 82,679 signatures.

Citizen Constitutional Initiatives-Change the Oregon Constitution.  They require 110,358 signatures.

Citizen Referrals-Refer a recently passed law, by the legislature, to the people for a vote, most recently seen in the failed attempts to get votes on the state’s new domestic partnership (civil unions) and GLBT civil rights laws.  They require 55,179 signatures, which must be turned in within 90 days after the law is signed by the Governor.

Ballot Measures are listed by these types and then by their Initiative Petition (IP) number since ballot measure numbers will not be assigned until signature verification is completed on August 3, 2008.  Measure numbers are sequential and the first measure this year will be Measure 54.  This summary does not include any local ballot measures.

Key:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Will it make the ballot:

Qualified-The imitative is already qualified.

Likely to Qualify-The imitative is likely (85%+) to qualify.

Fate Uncertain-50-50 on whether this initiative will qualify.

Unlikely to Qualify-Less than a 50% chance of qualification.

Race Ratings:

Tossup-Less than 3% margin projected.

Lean-3 to 10% margin.

Likely-11 to 20% margin.

Safe-Greater than 20% margin.

Note: Ratings assume the measure will qualify.

Progress-O-Meter:

How progressive is this initiative, on a 1-10 scale, with 1 being very much not progressive and 10 highly progressive.

Legislative Referrals (Already all qualified):

405-C

Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

Known Opposition: None.

Progress-O-Meter: N/A, technical measure.

Outlook: Safe Yes.

406-C

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

Progress-O-Meter: N/A, technical measure.

Outlook: Safe Yes.

407-C

Summary: Repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass.

Known Opposition: Taxpayer Association of Oregon (Far Right), Bill Sizemore (Sponsor of all things extremely libertarian).

Progress-O-Meter: 10, gets rid of a really stupid law.

Outlook: Likely Yes, the legislature’s approval should allow this one to win pretty easily.

408-S

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Known Opposition: Kevin Mannix and his crew.

Progress-O-Meter: 7, its not a great law but its a damn sight better than Mannix’s proposal.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Yes, my guess is that with both on the ballot, Mannix’s extreme measure will fail when compared to this one.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

3-S

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Qualification Status: Qualified.

Summary: This is at least the third time, and I think the fourth, that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Known Opposition: A leading coalition of progressive groups will once again mobilize against this one.

Progress-O-Meter: 1, really really bad.

Outlook: Likely No, the good news is that although Sizemore can qualify measures, he can’t pass them.  This proposal has failed by increasingly wider margins every time it’s been proposed.

19-S

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Qualification Status: Qualified.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Known Opposition: I would think a lot of progressive groups will mobilize against this one.

Progress-O-Meter: 2, progressives don’t like race-baiting measures like this one.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, I think the racist anti-immigrant folks will discover that they have limited political power after this one fails.  However, it is impossible to know exactly how this will turn out because this is the first immigration measure to make the ballot here.

20-S

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Qualification Status: Likely to Qualify

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Known Opposition: The Oregon Education Association will doubtless go all out against this measure.

Progress-O-Meter: 2, merit pay simply doesn’t work.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, although the first time tried here, given the more conservative states that have seen this measure fail I doubt this has much of a chance here.

21-S

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Qualification Status: Qualified

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Known Opposition: None but anything Sizemore proposes won’t stay without opposition for long.

Progress-O-Meter: 5, I honestly don’t know what Sizemore is up to here but I bet it’s no good.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, I don’t get this one but Sizemore’s name on the measure should be good enough to kill it.

25-S

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Qualification Status: Qualified

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Known Opposition: The progressive movement in this state will mobilize to kill this one.

Progress-O-Meter: 1, strikes right at the heart of the progressive movement.

Outlook: Likely No, Sizemore=without power, Public Employee Unions=Powerful, enough said.

40-S

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Qualification Status: Qualified

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Known Opposition: Most of the Legislature for one (See Referral #408) as well as most of the moderate and progressive groups in the state.

Progress-O-Meter: 1, oh Kevin, your ideas suck so much.

Outlook: Likely No, with the competing measure by the legislature, this one appears headed for defeat.

41-C

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Qualification Status: Likely to Qualify

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Known Opposition: The current groups that receive lottery funds, schools and parks, will likely oppose this.

Progress-O-Meter: 4, not horrible but not great either.

Outlook: Tossup, IMHO a bad idea but measures like this have fared pretty well in the past.

51-S

Chief Sponsor: R. Russell Walker (Libertarian Activist)

Qualification Status: Fate Uncertain

Summary: Limits contingency fee awards in lawsuits.  Your classic “lawsuit reform” measure.

Known Opposition: The Oregon Trial Lawyer’s Association has already come hard strongly against this measure not surprisingly.

Progress-O-Meter: 2, not as bad as the similar measure in 2004, but still quite bad.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, if a similar measure couldn’t pass in 2004, I doubt this one will now.

53-S

Chief Sponsor: R. Russell Walker

Qualification Status: Fate Uncertain

Summary: Establishes penalties for “frivolous lawsuits.”

Known Opposition: As with the last one, expect the Oregon Trial Lawyers Association to go full out against it.

Progress-O-Meter: 1, closing the courthouse door is not a progressive value.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, assuming either or both of these qualify, they will likely pass or fail together.

109-S

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Qualification Status: Fate Uncertain

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Known Opposition: Both the Oregon D’s and R’s oppose this strongly.

Progress-O-Meter: I’m not even going to try to rate this one because I know I will get slammed if I do but I personally oppose it.

Outlook: Leans No, if this qualifies, the state parties will spend a lot of $ to kill it, so I’ll list it as leans no for now.

Let me know what you think.

The following is a preview of Oregon’s delegates who were recently selected to attend the National Convention (excluding state-level delegates whose results are not posted yet).  More information is available by going to: http://restricted.dpo.org/delegates/.  Delegates are listed below by District and Candidate whom they support.  Crossposted from Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/23/122757/648/415/540647)

The following are the district-level delegates elected to attend the Democratic Convention in Denver this August.

Delegates are listed by district and candidate, along with the candidate they were elected to support (although obviously all, or nearly all, of the HRC delegates will actually vote for Obama in Denver).  Alternate delegates are indicated with a *.  

DPO=Democratic Party of Oregon.

A map of Oregon’s Districts is here: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/DistrictMaps/CongMaps/statecong.pdf

Superdelegates (All Obama):

Governor Ted Kulongoski

Senator Ron Wyden

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (OR)

Rep. Peter DeFazio (OR)

Rep. David Wu (OR)

Rep. Darlene Hooley

SOS Bill Bradbury

DNC Jenny Greenleaf (OR)

DNC Meredith Woods-Smith (OR)

DNC Wayne Kinney (OR)

DNC Gail Rasmussen (OR)

DNC Frank Dixon (OR)

Oregon’s Add-on Delegate is former Governor, and awesome progressive Barbara Roberts for the second time in a row (at least).

District 1:

Clinton:

Political Activist-Susan Castner

Multnomah County and State Party Leader-Moses Ross

Political Activist and former Novick supporter-Hallie Travis

Obama:

State Rep.-Larry Galizio*

Latino Outreach Person Extraordinaire-Elizabeth Lopez

Washington County D’s Finance Chair and Public Education Activist-Karen Packer

Political Activist, Intel Engineer and Former McGovern Field Worker-Steve Packer

Student Activist (and the youngest delegate in the state at the age of 19)-Andrew Simon

District 2:

Clinton:

Political Activist-Milt Goldman

Retired Professional Fundraiser-Myra Silverman

Obama:

Jackson County Party Chair-Paulie Brading

Jackson County Commissioner-David Gilmour

Party Activist-Sharon Marler*

Mega-Obamaniac-Matthew Sutton

District 3:

Clinton:

Longtime Oregon resident and super cool party activist-Mary Botkin

GLBT Activist-Laura Calvo

Retired Psychologist-Joseph Mazzara

Obama:

Chair of the DPO’s Faith Caucus-Enrique Arias

Former State Senator-Robert Boyer*

Political Activist-Susan Gates

Business and Employment Specialist-Shirley Minor

Party Fundraiser and Communications Specialist-Mac Pritchard

Future State Rep. and Founder of the Oregon Bus Project-Jefferson Smith

Chairperson, Nike Global Product Safety Team and Loaded Orygun Contributor-Stephanie Vardavas

District 4:

Clinton:

Deputy DA-Joan Demarest

Former ODOT (Oregon Department of Transportation) Manager-Loyd Henion

Political Consultant-Jon Pugsley

Obama:

Real Estate Broker and Douglas County Party Chair-Dean Byers

Real Estate Broker-Sara Byers*

Student and Community Organizer-Matt Keating

Retired Special Agent, Dept Of Defense-Karen Lonon-Jones

Video Producer/Writer-Nancy Webber

District 5:

Clinton:

President, Astro Data Services-Harry Demarest

Political Activist-Michael Dye

DPO Leader-Judith Sugnet

Obama:

Union Representative-Jeff Anderson*

Health Care Activist and Grad Student-Walter Dawson

Political Activist-D. Diane Wagner

Small Business Owner-Shirley Woods

Let me know what you think.

The following is a review of Oregon’s primary and a preview of Oregon’s fall elections now that the primary results (with the exception of Ballot Measure 53) are certified.  Crossposted from Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/16/121742/983/269/536725).

The Oregon Primary is nearly all in the books, so I thought it was appropriate to offer a final review of it and preview the fall campaigns.  I posted a more detailed preview a few weeks ago here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/5/12544/25866/676/530200.

The major source for my numbers is the SOS’s election results page: https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/goToElectionResults.do?actionId=viewLoad&mode=view.

The Oregon Primary, by the numbers:

Total Number of Votes Cast: 1,170,553, or 58.04%

Turnout in the 2006 Primary: 38.58%.

Democratic Turnout: 75.66% (a new record for an Oregon primary, smashing the previous record of 71.3% set during the 1968 Presidential Primary).

Number of Votes for Barack Obama: 375,000.

Number of Votes for Hillary Clinton: 260,000

Number of Votes for John McSame: 286,000.

Biggest margin of victory in any county for Hillary: 800 votes (Coos County).

Biggest margin of victory in any county for Obama: 53,000 votes (Multnomah County).

Jeff Merkley’s Margin of Victory over Steve Novick: 16,000.

Number of undervotes in the US Senate Primary: 90,000, or well above Merkley’s margin of victory.  By my estimate, Novick would have netted 3-5,000 or so more votes in Multnomah County alone had everyone cast ballots, assuming his margin of 52-40% had held.

Approximate cost per vote for Mike Erickson in the CD 5 Republican Primary (through the end of April only so the number is going to be higher than this): $23.

Approximate cost per vote for Kurt Schrader in the CD 5 Democratic Primary (through the end of April only): $1.70.

Closest Race: Ballot Measure 53, the “original certification” puts the margin at 450 votes out of 978,000 cast, or .06%.  It is currently being recounted and results will be known by 6/24.

Undervotes in this race: 192,000, or more than 425 times the margin.

Enough fun with numbers, now for a quickie Oregon General Election Preview:

Race-Rating Key:

Tossup-Less than 3% margin.

Lean-3 to 10% margin.

Likely-11 to 20% margin.

Safe-Over 20% margin.

When discussing a race I list the incumbent, or failing that the incumbent party, first.  

Candidates are indicated by the following symbols:

Inc-Incumbent.

Int-Interim Incumbent, someone who was appointed to fill out a term.  Oregon law allows the political party that controls a seat to basically appoint a replacement in case of resignation and so it is not uncommon for state legislators to resign so their successor can run as an incumbent.  Appointments are valid until the start of the next legislative session in a year following a general election.  Therefore, those appointees who have two years left on their term following an election must face a special election for those two years.   For example, Brad Avakian (D) resigned his State Senate seat and was replaced by Suzanne Bonamici (also D).  Since Avakian was not up for re-election until 2010, Bonamici will face a special election for the last two years of Avakian’s term this fall.

Statewide Races:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D).

Summary: The latest polling shows Obama with a solid lead in the 10% range.  Expect him to win by this much or more.  Barr might hurt McCain here because many of the urban Rs are libertarians who aren’t particularly fond of him.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D).

Summary: The latest poll shows Smith with a 9% lead but under 50%.  Merkley will definitely benefit from Obama’s strength here.  For now, his biggest weakness is most certainly his cash disadvantage but its nothing he can’t overcome.

Outlook: Leans Smith.

Labor Commissioner (Nonpartisan) (2-year interim):

Brad Avakian (int) is facing only token opposition, namely this nut, who likes to put curses on his opponents: http://www.getenergized.com/vote.html.  

Outlook: Safe Avakian.

Attorney General:

John Kroger (D) is unopposed and even won the OR R’s nomination by write-in.

State Treasurer:

Candidates: Ben Westlund (D) vs. Allen Alley (R).

Summary: Against someone else Alley might have a chance, but Westlund has friends on both sides of the aisle.  This one is going to be a rout.

Outlook: Likely to Safe Westlund.

Secretary of State

Candidates: Kate Brown (D) vs. Rick Dancer (R).

Summary: Brown is going to kick Dancer’s ass, period.  Dancer has no real base to speak of and has received only a lukewarm reception from Oregon Rs.  This is an important race this year, obviously, since the next SOS will help with redistricting.

Outlook: Likely to Safe Brown.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (Wu-D)-Likely to Safe Wu.

District 2 (Walden-R)-Likely to Safe Walden.

District 3 (Blumenauer-D)-Safe Blumenauer.

District 4 (DeFazio-D) is unopposed.

District 5

Candidates: State Sen. Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman (and hypocrite) Mike Erickson (R).

Summary: Schrader is a well known and respected legislator in this district and his wife is the current chair of the Clackamas County Commission.  Erickson, on the other hand, lost the endorsements of both Oregon Right to Life and the Oregon Farm Bureau, two groups without which no Republican can really hope to win.  I think he has enough cash to keep this race within 10% but not to win.

Outlook: Leans Schrader.

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate:

In brief:

Current Composition: 18 D, 11 R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18 D, 12 R (1 D to R (Westlund), 1 I to D (Gordly).

Races by Rating:

Safe: 7D, 5R.

Lean/Likely Hold: 2R, 1D.

Lean Takeover: 1D (Ben Westlund’s Seat in Central Oregon looks likely to flip to the Rs.  Put it this way, if they can’t win that seat, the Oregon Rs are really really in horrible shape.

Oregon House:

In brief:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 23 R, 5 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.

Races by Rating:

Safe/Likely: 25D, 10R.

Lean Hold: 6D, 13R.

Tossup Districts: 5 (all Rs, specifically: Berger (R-inc, Independence/Monmouth), Wingard (R-open, Wilsonville), Bruun (R-inc, West Linn, Kennemmer (R-open, Canby) and Lindland (R-open, Corbett).

Lean Takeover: 1R (Minnis’s old seat, now as an open seat, should flip to the Ds).

Let me know what you think.