Author: skywaker9

Today has been proof that election news need not stop when the Olympics happen.  Instead, there have been several fairly important stories to come out today, four of which will be covered here.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Nader tries to sneak in the back door:

Link: http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2008/08/nader_trying_to_slip_onto_the.html#more

I had been saying for a while that I didn’t see how Nader was going to make the ballot in Oregon this fall given that I had not seen any apparent effort by his supporters to mount a signature campaign.  That maybe changing as last week a new political party (the “Peace” party) emerged from the shadows and submitted 25,000 signatures to qualify their party for the ballot.  Assuming they have sufficient signatures (they need between 20-21,000 valid ones, which is far from certain), this would grant them automatic ballot access.  According to Jeff Mapes of the Oregonian, they are then likely to nominate Nader.  I don’t think it’ll have much of an impact because people love Obama, it’s not likely to be that close and Nader has lost a lot of power here, but it’s worth watching.

Whither fusion voting?:

Link: http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2008/08/independent_party_goes_to_cour.html

The Independent Party of Oregon, now the third-largest party in the state, filed a lawsuit Wednesday to force the state to allow fusion-voting.  For those of you not from the Northeast, fusion voting is where multiple parties are allowed to nominate the same candidate.   The votes for that candidate are combined among all the parties they are nominated by.

For example:

Candidate A is nominated only by the Republican Party and gets 45% of the vote.

Candidate B is nominated by the Democratic Party and the Independent Party, they got 40% of the vote as a Democrat and 15% as an Independent Party member for a total of 55% of the vote, meaning candidate B wins.

Except action on this soon as the ballot deadline is August 26.

Gordon Smith ducks the McCain campaign:

Link: http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2008/08/gordon_smith_wont_be_a_mccain.html

Gordon Smith continued to run away from the State GOP today as he announced that he will not be on John McCain’s Oregon steering committee.  Smith, who would otherwise prefer that no one remember he is really a Bush Republican, had already announced that he will not go to the Republican Convention next month.  Interesting to see what kind of impact this will have with a GOP electorate that was not his biggest fan to begin with.

Craig Robinson, Obama’s brother-in-law and Oregon State Basketball Coach, will speak in Denver:

Link: http://blog.oregonlive.com/mapesonpolitics/2008/08/osu_basketball_coach_will_spea.html

In the fun category, it has been announced that Obama’s brother-in-law, Craig Robinson, will introduce his sister Michelle on the first night of the Democratic Convention in Denver.  Should be fun to watch.

Let me know what you think.

This diary discusses a just announced major campaign by FreedomWorks Oregon to try and fool people into thinking that drilling is the only way to secure a sustainable energy future.  Major h/t to the Oregonian on this one (http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2008/08/energy_campaign.html).

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

According to an article published on the Oregonian’s website (link above), FreedomWorks Oregon announced today that it will launch a more than $1M campaign that intends to:

expose “how anti-energy radicals are opposed not just to energy development but to our modern way of life.”

 As evidence of this they cite a poll conducted by Republican pollster Moore Information services that shows that

solid majorities of Oregonians said they favored energy independence, construction of large wave energy farms in marine reserves off the coast and development of large wind energy farms “in scenic or wildlife sensitive areas in Oregon.”  More than two-thirds of poll respondents also said they believe that environmental groups “can be unfair and unreasonable in their efforts to stop energy development” and that they are unwilling to pay $6 a gallon or more for gas to protect the environment

.

Now you might be asking who FreedomWorks and Moore Information are, so see below for more:

FreedomWorks Oregon:

Founded by former House Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-TX) in 2004, FreedomWorks is a libertarian organization in the model of the Club for Growth.  They are well known for their efforts to propose the flat tax, curb lawsuit damages and school voucher programs.  They are also opposed to Net Neutrality.  The Oregon chapter is headed by Russ Walker, a longtime conservative activist in the state.

Moore Information:

Founded by Bob Moore in 1981, Moore Information is a Portland-based polling firm that works almost exclusively for Republican candidates (including Gordon Smith of Oregon and Don Young of AK).  They are well known for their biased polling questions, such as the following:

Q: “Why do you say things are on the wrong track?”

A (separated by commas): Too many liberals/democrats, education/schools, Condition of government/decision-making process, Irresponsible spending, Taxes, Economy/Business Development, Irresponsible/Unqualified Politicians, Gay Civil Rights, Health Care Concerns, Environmental Issues. See this question on page 2 of the document linked here: http://www.moore-info.com/MI_ORClimateDec07.pdf

His full client list is here: http://www.moore-info.com/clients.html.

So What should we do about it:

If this pisses you off, donate to a good Oregon progressive ASAP to counteract this BS.

Here are some good candidates to donate to:

Jeff Merkley (OR Senate): http://www.jeffmerkley.com/

OR House Democrats (OR Legislature): http://www.oregonhousedemocrats.com/

OR Senate Democrats (OR Legislature): http://www.sdlf.net/

Or if you don’t want to donate locally, there is always that Barack Obama guy: http://www.barackobama.com/index.php

Let me know what you think.

With the final signature verification complete. Oregon’s ballot measure slate is set for this year.  Below I review each ballot measure and discuss its chances of passing as well as its impact on the candidate elections this fall.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Some Oregon Initiative Basics:

Although commonly thought only as an Initiative process, the actual truth is that there are four major types of ballot measures (of which the first two are by far the most common):

Legislative Referrals-Typically these are constitutional modifications but they can be statutory as well (See 2007’s Measure 49, which modified the state’s land use laws as an example).  Depending on the specific measure, they require either a simple majority or, in some cases, a 3/5 majority to get on the ballot.

Citizen Statutory Initiatives-Change or create state law.  They require 82,679 signatures.

Citizen Constitutional Initiatives-Change the Oregon Constitution.  They require 110,358 signatures.

Citizen Referrals-Refer a recently passed law, by the legislature, to the people for a vote, most recently seen in the failed attempts to get votes on the state’s new domestic partnership (civil unions) and GLBT civil rights laws.  They require 55,179 signatures, which must be turned in within 90 days after the law is signed by the Governor.

Ballot Measures are listed by ballot measure number.  Measure numbers are sequential and the first measure this year will be Measure 54.  This summary does not include any local ballot measures.

Key:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Race Ratings:

Tossup-Less than 3% margin projected.

Lean-3 to 10% margin.

Likely-11 to 20% margin.

Safe-Greater than 20% margin.

Note: Ratings assume the measure will qualify.

Progress-O-Meter:

How progressive is this initiative, on a 1-10 scale, with 1 being very much not progressive and 10 highly progressive.

Campaign Impact:

What impact will this initiative have on candidate elections this fall, 1 being low and 10 being high.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 54 (C):

Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

Known Opposition: None.

Progress-O-Meter: N/A, technical measure.

Campaign Impact: 1, no impact.

Outlook: Safe Yes.

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

Progress-O-Meter: N/A, technical measure.

Campaign Impact: 1, no impact.

Outlook: Safe Yes.

Measure 56 (S):

Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.

Known Opposition: Taxpayer Association of Oregon (Far Right), Bill Sizemore (Sponsor of all things extremely libertarian).

Progress-O-Meter: 10, gets rid of a really stupid law.

Campaign Impact: 3, this will get some play on the far right but I doubt it’ll have much of a real impact.

Outlook: Likely Yes, the legislature’s approval should allow this one to win pretty easily.

Measure 57 (S):

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Known Opposition: Kevin Mannix and his crew.

Progress-O-Meter: 7, its not a great law but its a damn sight better than Mannix’s proposal.

Campaign Impact: 7, this will probably, along with Mannix’s measure, be the main focus of many campaigns this fall.  It will have an impact for sure.

Outlook: Leans Yes, my guess is that with both on the ballot, Mannix’s extreme measure will fail when compared to this one.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Known Opposition: I would think a lot of progressive groups will mobilize against this one.

Progress-O-Meter: 2, progressives don’t like race-baiting measures like this one.

Campaign Impact: 4, this might get some wingnuts out to vote but I don’t think it’s much of a real issue.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, I think the racist anti-immigrant folks will discover that they have limited political power after this one fails.  However, it is impossible to know exactly how this will turn out because this is the first immigration measure to make the ballot here.

Measure 59 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Known Opposition: A leading coalition of progressive groups will once again mobilize against this one.

Progress-O-Meter: 1, really really bad.

Campaign Impact: 3, yawn.  This ain’t new so this isn’t giong to swing many votes.

Outlook: Likely No, the good news is that although Sizemore can qualify measures, he can’t pass them.  This proposal has failed by increasingly wider margins every time it’s been proposed.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Known Opposition: The Oregon Education Association will doubtless go all out against this measure.

Progress-O-Meter: 2, merit pay simply doesn’t work.

Campaign Impact: 5, the Repubs will definitely try to make this an issue this fall.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, in 2000 a similar measure was rejected with 65% of the vote.  Given the more favorable political climate for education since then, this one will likely fail.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Known Opposition: Most of the Legislature for one (See Measure 57) as well as most of the moderate and progressive groups in the state.

Progress-O-Meter: 1, oh Kevin, your ideas suck so much.

Campaign Impact: 8, this is probably going to be the most closely contested ballot measure this fall except for perhaps the primary initiative.

Outlook: Leans No, with the competing measure by the legislature, this one may go down, which is good because withotu the competiting measure it would likely pass.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Known Opposition: The current groups that receive lottery funds, schools and parks, have opposed this.

Progress-O-Meter: 4, not horrible but not great either.

Campaign Impact: 5, although closely contested I can’t imagine this one will get too much play either way in the campaigns this fall.

Outlook: Tossup, IMHO a bad idea but measures like this have fared pretty well in the past.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Known Opposition: None but anything Sizemore proposes won’t stay without opposition for long.

Progress-O-Meter: 5, I honestly don’t know what Sizemore is up to here but I bet it’s no good.

Campaign Impact: 2, I don’t know what this is but it doesn’t look like it will have to much of an impact.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, I don’t get this one but Sizemore’s name on the measure should be good enough to kill it.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Known Opposition: The progressive movement in this state will mobilize to kill this one.

Progress-O-Meter: 1, strikes right at the heart of the progressive movement.

Campaign Impact: 8, In the current political climate, this measure will certainly get some play and will clearly have an impact.  We are already getting the misleading “Democrats hate the Secret Union Ballot” ads from some right-wing interest groups.

Outlook: Likely No, Sizemore=without power, Public Employee Unions=Powerful, enough said.

Measure 65 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Known Opposition: Both the Oregon D’s and R’s oppose this strongly.

Progress-O-Meter: I’m not even going to try to rate this one because I know I will get slammed if I do but I personally oppose it.

Campaign Impact: 7, This will get a fair amount of play on the left for sure, but I don’t think this measure will break through to independent voters.

Outlook: Leans No, if this qualifies, the state parties will spend a lot of $ to kill it, so I’ll list it as leans no for now.

Let me know what you think.

With the end of July nearing and the election now only 99 days away, I thought it was appropriate to publish a review of the last month’s action in Oregon politics.  In addition, I preview what lies ahead in August and give updates on previous race ratings or other information I have talked about in my earlier diaries.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Stock Watch:

Who is up and down in Oregon politics this month:

Up: Jeff Merkley.  Fresh off his best fund-raising quarter ever, Merkley erased a 9% deficit to Gordon Smith during the past month, even though Smith was on the air and Merkley largely was not.

Down: Gordon Smith.  Already flailing about, Smith appears desperate to show that he is really a centrist, despite all the evidence to the contrary.  His recent decision not to attend the RNC Convention proves he knows that John McCain is an anchor on his campaign.

Up: Oregon Democrats.  As you will see below, the Oregon Democratic Party has seen rating upgrades in a number of races and has not lost ground anywhere.  With a strong group of candidates at all levels, this could be a banner year for the DPO.

Down: Oregon Republicans.  Down, with no money and with rapidly fading chances at all levels, Oregon Republicans are flailing out wildly.  With the demise of a number of their prized legislative recruits for a number of reasons (Jeff Duyck violating residency requirements, Tony Marino turning out to be crazy) and with a huge cash disadvantage to the Oregon Ds, they are in trouble.

Up: Bill Sizemore.  As much as it pains me to say this, Sizemore had a good month in July.  He qualified all his initiatives and although most, if not all, are unlikely to pass, he still thumbed our noses in it again.

Down: Bill Bradbury.  Long one of my favorite Oregon politicians, Bill Bradbury has fallen hard in the last month.  With the revelation that Bradbury did not investigate potential signature fraud by conservative groups (info here: http://www.blueoregon.com/2008/07/citizens-begin.html) I honestly won’t be too disappointed when Kate Brown replaces him in January.  One of his most visible jobs is to enforce the signature laws and he appears he may not have done so, according to our dear friends at Our Oregon and other wonderful liberal interest groups.

Upcoming Deadlines and Interesting Dates:

August 2-All signature verification must be completed (already done), and ballot measure numbers are assigned.  See below for more.

August 26-Voter’s Pamphlet Statements Due.  A rough version will be posted soon after.

August 29-Last day to withdraw/replace a candidate.  All candidates on the ballot at that point are considered the final candidates.  The only exception is if a candidate dies in a non-federal race, under the state constitution the SOS may elect to postpone the election for a short period of time if necessary.

August 30-The seven day rule for campaign finance reporting goes into effect, requiring all contributions and expenditures made from this date to election day be reported within 7 days.  Currently, candidates have 30 days to report.  Violations are subject to progressively harsher penalties.

Measure by Measure, a Ballot Measure Update:

Assuming that Our Oregon is not successful in its lawsuit over possibly fraudulent signatures on Sizemore’s initiatives, here are the current initiatives for this year’s ballot, numbers to be assigned early next week:

Key:

S-Statutory

C-Constitutional

Numbers listed are initiative petition numbers.  Ballot measure numbers this year will begin with #54 and go sequentially from there.  The four legislative referrals will be first, followed by all the qualified citizen initiatives.

Qualified:

Legislative Referrals:

405-C-Corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

406-C-Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

407-C-Repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass.

408-S-Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

3-S-Makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

19-S-This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

20-S-This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

21-S-This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

25-S-Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

40-S-This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

41-C-Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

109-S-Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Failed to Qualify:

51-S-Limits contingency fee awards in lawsuits.  Your classic “lawsuit reform” measure.

53-S-Establishes penalties for “frivolous lawsuits.”

Race Rating Changes:

From my last update, posted here on July 10: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

US Senate: Upgraded from Lean Smith to Tossup.  With the new polling showing Merkley with a small lead, up from 9% down last month, this race has clearly moved to tossup territory.  GAME ON!

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate: OR-14 (West Slope, my home district!), Mark Hass (R), upgrade from Likely Hass to Safe Hass.  Time was this was a competitive district, not anymore.  When last this seat was up, the registration gap was 3k, now its 10k.  With Michaels not raising nearly enough cash to make this competitive, this race goes off the competitive races board.

Oregon House:

OR-29 (Hillsboro), Riley (D) upgrade from Lean Riley to Likely Riley.  Jeff Duyck was the only real chance the OR GOP had in this district.  With him out of the way since it was revealed he didn’t actually live in the district, it’s hard to believe this one will be too close, especially with former GOOPer Terry Rilling running as an independent.

OR-35 (Tigard), Galizio (D) upgrade from Leans Galizio to Likely Galizio.  With Marino becoming more and more of a laughing stock every day, Galizio looks poised to win by far his biggest win of his three races here.

OR-38 (Lake Oswego), Garrett (D) upgrade from Lean Garrett to Likely Garrett.  I know Steve Griffith (R) personally, he’s a nice guy and I respect him a lot.  That being said, he’s going to get his ass kicked in this district as he has been seemingly unable to raise nearly the amount of $ required to be competitive.

OR-51 (Clackamas), Flores (R), upgrade from Lean Flores to Tossup.  With the large amount of cash Flores’s opponent Brent Barton (D) has managed to raise in this district, he has certainly made this one a close race.  It should be fun to watch.

Let me know what you think.

Yesterday I wrote about how Gordon Smith and the Oregon Republican party had released a web ad and website smearing Jeff Merkley’s record.  Today, the DSCC fired back with a brilliant ad nailing Gordon Smith on the war on Iraq.  See more below the jump…

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

First things, first, if you’ll recall, Gordon Smith and the NRSC released the following web ad a few days back criticizing Merkley’s appearance in some issue ads funded by the Democratic Party of Oregon:

Today the DSCC fires back with an ad (not a web ad, an actual TV ad) criticizing Smith, and particularly his insistence that he is bipartisan and supports tax cuts for real families:

Let me know what you think and if you want to help Jeff take back this country by taking out one of Dubya’s most loyal friends, donate at: http://www.jeffmerkley.com/

Proof that Jeff Merkley is gaining fast in his quest to be the next Senator from the great state of Oregon increases by the day.  In the latest, the Oregon GOP goes after Merkley’s supposed campaign finance violations and then puts up a pathetic website attempting to smear Merkley’s tax record.  More below the jump.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The first item today is an ad put out by the NRSC opposing Jeff Merkley’s appearance in some issue ads sponsored by the OR D’s:

The ad makes referrence of a website (http://www.musttaxmerkley.com/) which supposedly proves Merkley has a pro-tax increase record.  Some facts:

1. The newest article on this page is nearly four months old.  Oh and as I was writing this, their site went down…

2. If you go to the “Jeff Merkley’s Record” page, they give two examples of how Merkley supposedly supports higher taxes and bad budget policies  The second is his vote for a renovation of the State Capitol, which was supported by both parties.  Trust me when I say that the pipes were in bad enough condition that the water that came out of them was brown, not to mention other problems the building had.

Enjoy the smell of fear folks, they’re reeking of it.  

The following is the latest in my line of Oregon politics blogs and comes at the suggestion of one of my readers.  Simply put, I will analyze the current cash situation for major non-federal candidates in Oregon (since I believe that the federal races have been well covered here).  

For reference, my latest thoughts on the elections are posted at: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Oregon Campaign Finance Laws:

Oregon has a unique campaign finance system.  This is because Oregon’s first amendment has been interpreted by the Oregon Supreme Court to give equal protection to commercial and individual free speech, meaning that contribution limits are unconstitutional.  However, Oregon does have stringent reporting requirements, which include requiring all contributions/expenditures to be reported to the state’s new online system ORESTAR (https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/jsp/CEMainPage.jsp) within a particular period after the contribution/expenditure is made (it gets shorter the closer we get to the election).

Note: All totals are as recent as possible and are rounded to the nearest thousand.  I only do reports for contested races, so, for example, since the AG’s race has no Republican candidate, I will not report on it.  I exclude the state party’s themselves because their state reporting is not a full picture of their financial status since their contributions are split between federal and state races.

State Party Legislative PACs:

Democrats:

Future PAC (Oregon House):

COH: $627k

Contributions: $572k

Expenditures: $254k

Biggest Contributor: Opportunity PAC (Governor Kulongoski’s PAC)-$25K.

Senate Democratic Leadership Fund (Oregon Senate):

COH: $275k

Contributions: $165k

Expenditures: $77k

Biggest Contributor: Kurt Schrader for State Senate-$20k.

Republicans:

Promote Oregon Leadership (Oregon House):

COH: $46k

Contributions: $298k

Expenditures: $381k

Biggest Contributor: Friends of Bruce Hanna-$20k.

Leadership Fund (Oregon Senate):

COH: $151k

Contributions: $265k

Expenditures: $196k

Biggest Contributor: Roger Beyer for State Senate-$20k.

Oregon Victory PAC (Oregon Legislature):

COH: $142k

Contributions: $195k

Expenditures: $220k

Biggest Contributor: Nancy Lamatta-$30k

Statewide Candidates:

Secretary of State (D Open):

Democratic Candidate: Kate Brown.

COH: $10k

Contributions: $390k

Expenditures: $529k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Education Association-$50k.

Republican Candidate: Rick Dancer

COH: $70k

Contributions: $96k

Expenditures: $25k

Biggest Contributor: Seneca Jones Timber Company-$25k.

State Treasurer (D Open):

Democratic Candidate: Ben Westlund.

COH: $73k

Contributions: $191k

Expenditures: $127k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Education Association-$30k.

Republican Candidate: Allen Alley.

COH: $35k

Contributions: $193k

Expenditures: $178k

Biggest Contributor: Salem Attorney Mark Stevens (in-kind)-$25k.

State Legislature:

Note: Only candidates in contested races are discussed.  Where no information is available that means that the candidate has currently raised and/or spent less than $2k since the May primary and so is not required to report.  This is not so important, however, because of the free and easy transfers available between candidate committees and because many expenditures come from the party and its committees anyways.

District 9 (Stayton) (Republican Interim Defending):

Interim: Fred Girod (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Bob McDonald.

No information available.

District 12 (McMinnville) (Republican Open)

Republican Candidate: Brian Boquist

COH: $26k

Contributions: $15k

Expenditures: Less than $1k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC (OR R’s)-$5k.

Democratic Candidate: Kevin Nortness

Nothing to report.

District 14 (West Slope) (D Interim Defending)

Interim: Mark Hass (D)

COH: $55k

Contributions: $62k

Expenditures: $31k

Biggest Contributor: IBEW-$3k.

Challenger: Lisa Michaels (R)

COH: $3k

Contributions: $3k

Expenditures: $1k

Biggest Contributor: Leadership Fund (OR R’s)-$2k.

District 27 (Bend) (D Open)

Democratic Candidate: Maren Lundgren

COH: $4k

Contributions: $5k

Expenditures: $1k

Biggest Contributor: Truman Club of Central Oregon-$1k.

Republican Candidate: Chris Telfer

COH: $14k

Contributions: $107k

Expenditures: $99k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC and the Leadership Fund-$10k each.

Oregon House:

Note: Districts 9 and 29 have at least temporarily dropped off the competitive races list because Republican challengers were disqualified for filing in a district that they did not actually live in.

District 6 (Medford) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Sal Esquivel (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Lynn Howe (D)

COH: $5k

Contributions: $9k

Expenditures: $4k

Biggest Contributor: Eric Swenson-$750.

District 7 (Roseburg) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Bruce Hanna (R), Hanna is the Republican leader in the OR House, so his numbers are higher.

COH: $74k

Contributions: $111k

Expenditures: $111k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Forest Industries Council-$15k.

Challenger: Donald Nordin (D)

No information available.

District 15 (Albany) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Andy Olson (R)

COH: $115k

Contributions: $72k

Expenditures: $45k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Forest Industries Council-$10k.

Challenger: Dick Olsen (D)

COH: $2k

Contributions: $3k

Expenditures: $1k

Biggest Contributor: Benton County Democratic Party-$1k.

District 17 (Scio) (R Interim Defending):

Interim: Sherrie Sprenger (R)

COH: $6k

Contributions: $51k

Expenditures: $45k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$10k.

Challenger: Dale Thackaberry (D)

No information available.

District 18 (R interim defending):

Interim: Vic Gilliam (R)

COH: $27k

Contributions: $65k

Expenditures: $64k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$20k.

Challenger: Jim Gilbert (D)

No information available.

District 19 (Salem) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Kevin Cameron (R)

COH: $37k

Contributions: $51k

Expenditures: $23k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Forest Industries Council-$10k

Challenger: Hanten (HD) Day (D)

COH: $6k

Contributions: $13k

Expenditures: $6k

Biggest Contributor: Marion County Democrats (in-kind)-$5k.

District 20 (Independence/Monmouth) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Vicki Berger (R)

COH: $49k

Contributions: $46k

Expenditures: $32k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Beverage PAC (in-kind)-$10k.

Challenger: Richard Riggs (D)

COH: $5k

Contributions: $30k

Expenditures: $26k

Biggest Contributor: Marion County Democrats (in-kind)-$6k.

District 22 (Woodburn) (D Defending)

Incumbent: Betty Komp (D)

No information available.

Challenger: Tom Chereck (R)

No information available.

District 23 (Dallas) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Jim Thompson

COH: $15k

Contributions: $52k

Expenditures: $43k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$10k.

Democratic Candidate: Jason Brown

COH: $11k

Contributions: $14k

Expenditures: $6k

Biggest Contributor: Nancy and Gerald Brown-$5k.

District 24 (McMinnville) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Jim Weidner

COH: $1k

Contributions: $52k

Expenditures: $54k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$10k

Democratic Candidate: Bernt Hansen

No information available.

District 26 (Wilsonville) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Matt Wingard

COH: $34k

Contributions: $52k

Expenditures: $27k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$30k.

Democratic Candidate: Jessica Adamson

COH: $14k

Contributions: $60k

Expenditures: $56k

Biggest Contributor: AGC Committee for Action (Mainly Construction Companies)-$2.5k.

District 30 (Hillsboro) (D Defending)

Incumbent: David Edwards (D)

COH: $25k

Contributions: $26k

Expenditures: $22k

Biggest Contributor: Agency 76 LLC-$2.5k

Challenger: Andy Duyck (R)

No information available, he just came in to replace a Republican candidate who dropped out, so he would not have to report quite yet.

District 35 (Tigard) (D Defending)

Incumbent: Larry Galizio (D)

No information available.

Challenger: Tony Marino (R)

COH: Less than $1k

Contributions: $32k

Expenditures: $32k

Biggest Contributor: Promote Oregon Leadership PAC (in-kind)-$4k.

District 37 (West Linn) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Scott Bruun (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Michele Eberle (D)

No information available.

District 38 (Lake Oswego) (D Open)

Democratic Candidate: Chris Garrett

COH: $2k

Contributions: $118k

Expenditures: $132k

Biggest Contributor: FireFly Studios LLC (in-kind)-$7k.

Republican Candidate: Steve Griffith

No information available.

District 39 (Canby) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Bill Kennemer

COH: $74k

Contributions: $112k

Expenditures: $59k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$20k.

Democratic Candidate: Toby Forsberg

COH: $17k

Contributions: $53k

Expenditures: $38k

Biggest Contributor: David Forsberg-$10k.

District 49 (Gresham) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: John Nelsen

COH: $22k

Contributions: $104k

Expenditures: $83k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Victory PAC-$30k.

Democratic Candidate: Nick Kahl

COH: $8k

Contributions: $102k

Expenditures: $98k

Biggest Contributor: Oregon Trial Lawyers PAC-$5k.

District 50 (Fairview) (R Defending)

Incumbent: John Lim (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Greg Matthews (D)

COH: $38k

Contributions: $66k

Expenditures: $29k

Biggest Contributor: Various Firefighter PACs-$10k each, $40k total.

District 51 (Clackamas) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Linda Flores (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Brent Barton (D)

COH: $105k

Contributions: $84k

Expenditures: $44k

Biggest Contributor: William Barton and Oregon Trial Lawyers PAC-$10k each.

District 52 (Corbett) (R Open)

Republican Candidate: Matt Lindland (R)

No information available.

Democratic Candidate: Suzanne VanOrman (D)

No information available.

District 54 (Bend) (R Defending)

Incumbent: Chuck Burley (R)

COH: $27k

Contributions: $95k

Expenditures: $89k

Biggest Contributor: Friends of Bruce Hanna (in-kind)-$8k.

Challenger: Judy Stiegler (D)

COH: $18k

Contributions: $26k

Expenditures: $14k

Biggest Contributor: Truman Club of Central OR-$4.5k.

District 59 (The Dalles) (R Interim Defending)

Interim: John Huffman (R)

No information available.

Challenger: Mike Ahern (D)

COH: $10k

Contributions: $32k

Expenditures: $22k

Biggest Contributor: Jason Hale-$10k.

Let me know what you think.

This latest in my continuing series of diaries on Oregon politics will discuss the current status of Oregon’s political landscape by using voter registration as a guide.  With this model, we can see clearly how strongly the Democratic party is positioned for this fall.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Key:

Names listed are those of the party’s candidate holding the seat.

For Congressional districts, multiply the State Senate values by five.

Strong District: Oregon House Voter Reg. Difference 10k or more, Senate Voter Reg. 20k or more.

Likely District: Oregon House 5-10k Difference, Senate 10-20k Difference.

Lean District: Oregon House 3-5k Difference, Senate 6-9k Difference.

Tossup District: Oregon House less than 3k Difference, Senate less than 6k Difference.

*=Opposition party has registration edge of 1k or more.

x=Candidate is unopposed (by a major party candidate).

All values are rounded to the nearest thousand, source of data is: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08stats.pdf.

My read on the state of the races is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (D): D+ 57k, Likely D.

District 2 (R): R+ 33k, Leans R.

District 3 (D): D+ 125k, Strong D.

District 4 (D): D+ 36k, Leans D.

District 5 (D): D+ 19k, Tossup.

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Seats NOT up for re-election this year:

Total: 14 (Due to a vacancy filler election in one district).

D-Held: 10.

R-Held; 4.

Summary:

Strong D: 3

Likely D: 2

Lean D: 3

Tossup D: 1.

Strong R: 0.

Likely R: 2.

Leans R: 3.

Tossup R: 2.

Uncontested Races:

D-Held: 5, 3 Strong, 2 Lean.

R-Held: 3, 1 Likely, 2 Lean.

Districts in which the opposition party has a voter registration edge:

D: 1, Westlund’s seat.

R: 0.

Up For Re-Election:

Strong Districts:

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D)-x.

22 (Portland)-Carter (D)-x.

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D)-x.

Likely Districts:

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

17 (Beaverton)-Bonamicci (D)-2 year vacancy filler)

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R)-x.

Lean Districts:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D)-x.

14 (West Slope)-Hass (D).

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-x.

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R)-x.

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R)-x.

Tossup Districts:

9 (Stayton)-Girod (R).

12 (McMinville)-Boquist (R).

27 (Bend)-Telfer (R)*-Pickup from Westlund (D).

Oregon House:

All the seats are up for election this year.

Current Composition: 31D, 29R.

Summary:

Strong D: 9.

Likely D: 10.

Leans D: 7.

Tossup D: 5.

Strong R: 0.

Likely R: 4.

Leans R: 5.

Tossup R: 20.

Uncontested Races:

D-Held: 19, 7 Strong, 6 Likely, 4 Lean, 2 Tossup.

R-Held: 6, 4 Likely, 1 Lean, 1 Tossup.

Districts in which the opposition party has a voter registration edge:

D-Held: 0.

R-Held: 6 (Berger, Nelsen, Lim, Flores, Lindland, Burley).

Strong Districts:

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D)-x.

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D)-x.

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D)-x.

43 (Portland)-Shields (D)-x.

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D)-x.

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D)-x.

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D)-x.

Likely Districts:

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R)-x.

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D)-x.

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-x.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D)-x.

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D)-x.

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D)-x.

38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D)-x.

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R)-x.

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R)-x.

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R)-x.

Lean Districts:

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

6 (Medford)-Esquivel (R).

9 (Coos Bay)-Roblan (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D)-x.

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D)-x.

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D)-x.

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D)-x.

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R)-x.

Tossup Districts:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

7 (Roseburg)-Hanna (R).

15 (Albany)-Olson (R).

17 (Scio)-Sprenger (R).

18 (Silverton)-Gilliam (R).

19 (Salem)-Cameron (R).

20 (Independence/Monmouth)-Berger (R)*.

21 (Salem)-Clem (D)-x.

22 (Woodburn)-Komp (D).

23 (Dallas)-Thompson (R).

24 (McMinnville)-Wiedner (R).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R)-x.

26 (Wilsonville)-Wingard (R).

29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).

30 (Hillsboro)-Edwards (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D)-x.

37 (West Linn)-Bruun (R).

39 (Canby)-Kennemer (R).

49 (Gresham)-Nelsen (R)*.

50 (Fairview)-Lim (R)*.

51 (Clackamas)-Flores (R)*.

52 (Corbett)-Lindland (R)*.

54 (Bend)-Burley (R)*.

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

59 (The Dalles)-Huffman (R).

Let me know what you think.

In order so that those of you who have been reading my Oregon politics diaries can understand who these people are I have been talking about, I present the following entry.  For brevity’s sake, only statewide and congressional candidates will be discussed.

For your information, my last Oregon elections preview is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

Cross posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1234

Statewide Offices:

US Senate (R Defending)

Incumbent: Gordon Smith

Party: Republican.

Birthdate: 05/25/1952

Hometown: Pendleton.

Experience in Current Job: 12 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Oregon State Senator 1993-1997

President, Oregon State Senate 1995-1997.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-40%.

ACLU-57%.

Gun Owners of America-0% last year, 100% the year before that.

AFL-CIO-44%.

Did You Know: Gordon Smith’s brother Milan Dale Smith, Jr. is a federal judge, appointed by Dubya in 2006 to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.

Challenger: Jeff Merkley

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 10/24/1956

Hometown: Portland.

Experience in Current Job (If an elected official): 10 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Speaker of the House, Oregon State House of Representatives, present

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1998-present.

Democratic Leader, Oregon State House of Representatives.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-75%.

NRA-F, every year they have rated him.

AFL-CIO-94%.

Did You Know: Among his previous work, Merkley was head of Portland Habitat for Humanity, where he successfully helped expand the program’s reach and success.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (D Defending):

Incumbent: David Wu

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 04/08/1955

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: 10 Years

Previous Government Experience: Commissioner, Oregon Planning Commission.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-100%.

NRA-F.

AFL-CIO-96%.

Did You Know: David Wu was the first-ever Taiwanese-American representative.

Challenger: Joel Haugen

Party: Republican

Birthdate: 11/19/1949

Hometown: Scapoose

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: Scappoose Park and Recreation Commissioner, Scappoose Park and Recreation Commission, 2002-2004.

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: He cites as his political inspiration a Minnesota legislator by the name of John McKee.

District 2 (R Defending)

Incumbent: Greg Walden

Party: Republican

Birthdate: 01/10/1957

Hometown: Hood River

Experience in Current Job: 10 Years.

Previous Government Experience:

Senator, Oregon State Senate, 1995-1997

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1988-1995

Majority Leader, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1991-1993

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100% last year, 35% the year before.

ACLU-17%.

NRA-A.

AFL-CIO-42%.

Did You Know: Until recently Walden owned Columbia Gorge Broadcasting, which ran five radio stations in the Columbia Gorge area.

Challenger: Noah Lemas

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 02/16/1970

Hometown: Bend

Experience in Current Job: N/A.

Previous Government Experience: N/A.

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A.

Did You Know: Noah has been a successful entrepreneur in the snowboard industry, building and then selling off two companies (Sunriver Snowboards and Side Effect Board Shop).

District 3 (D Defending)

Incumbent: Earl Blumenauer

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 08/16/1949

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: 12 Years.

Previous Government Experience:

Commissioner of Public Works, Portland City Council, 1986-1996

Commissioner, Multnomah County Commission, 1978-1986

Representative, Oregon State House, 1973-1978.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-100%.

NRA-F.

AFL-CIO-96%.

Did You Know: Earl got his start in elected office in the 1970s as a proponent of the Right to Die, Right to Vote Constitutional amendment, which lowered the voting age to 18.

Challenger: Delia Lopez

Party: Republican

Birthdate: 02/14/1963

Hometown: Oakland (OR)

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: N/A

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: Is running in Earl’s district despite the fact that she lives in the fourth district, in which Peter DeFazio (D) is unopposed.

District 4 (D Unopposed)

Incumbent: Peter DeFazio

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 05/27/1947

Hometown: Springfield

Experience in Current Job: 22 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Chair, Lane County Commission, 1982-1986.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-100%.

NRA-B.

AFL-CIO-96%.

Did You Know: In his prior life before becoming an elected official, DeFazio was a gerontologist (someone who studies the social, psychological and biological aspects of aging).

District 5 (D Open)

Democrat: Kurt Schrader

Birthdate: N/A.

Hometown: Canby.

Experience in Current Job: 6 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Senator, Oregon State Senate, 2002-present

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1996-2002

Former Chair, Canby, Oregon Planning Commission.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-67%.

NRA-B-.

AFL-CIO-89%.

Did You Know: Kurt has been both an organic farmer and a veterinarian.  His wife is currently chair of the Clackamas County Board of Commissioners.

Republican: Mike Erickson

Birthdate: N/A

Hometown: Salem

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: N/A

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: Erickson was the placekicker and punter for Portland State’s football team and still holds the school record for career field goals made with 32.

Statewide Offices:

Attorney General (D Unopposed)

Democrat: John Kroger

Birthdate: N/A

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: Deputy Policy Director of Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, legislative assistant to U. S. Representative Tom Foley (D-WA) and U. S. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A.

Did You Know: Kroger was a well-respected prosecutor, having won cases against defendants ranging from Mafia kingpins to Enron executives before moving to Portland to become a professor at the Lewis and Clark Law School.

Secretary of State (D Open)

Democrat: Kate Brown

Birthdate: 06/21/1960

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: 12 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Senator, Oregon State Senate, 1996-present

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1991-1996.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-56%.

NRA-F.

AFL-CIO-89%.

Did You Know: Kate Brown was born in Torrejon de Ardoth, Spain and grew up in Minnesota.  Before running for elective office, she was an attorney, practicing Family and Juvenile law.

Republican: Rick Dancer

Birthdate: N/A

Hometown: Eugene

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: N/A

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: Dancer’s last job was an the anchor for Eugene’s ABC affiliate, KEZI.

State Treasurer (D Open)

Democrat: Ben Westlund

Birthdate: 09/03/1949

Hometown: Bend

Experience in Current Job: 6 Years.

Previous Government Experience:

Senator, Oregon State Senate, 2002-present

Representative, Oregon State House, 1997-2002.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-50%.

NRA-A+ (While still a Republican)

AFL-CIO-100%.

Did You Know: In response to a number of his positions, not least of which was his fight for GLBT rights and universal health care, opposed by the Republican Party, Westlund switched from Republican to Independent in 2006 and then from Independent to Democrat last year.

Republican: Allen Alley

Birthdate: N/A.

Hometown: Lake Oswego

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: Former Deputy Chief of Staff to Governor Kulongoski (D) for about a year.

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A.

Did You Know: Alley was the co-founder and former CEO of Pixelworks, a “Semiconductor company which designs, develops and markets highly integrated system-on-a-chip solutions for broadband communications.”

Let me know what you think.

The following is my latest read on this fall’s Oregon elections.  This update is prompted by the release of some new registration data that goes down to the state legislative district level, thus allowing me to more correctly analyze the races.  This update includes all candidate races at the state legislative level and up (excluding local races) but does not include ballot measures.

For information, see my previous OR politics diaries:

Oregon Ballot Measures: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/25/113448/828/338/541717

Oregon’s Vote By Mail System FAQ (Written for the primary): http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/19/124239/061/359/518313.

My first post-primary update: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/16/121742/983/269/536725.

Crossposted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1227

Data Sources:

Registration data comes from this document: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08stats_web.pdf or here: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08stats.pdf

Primary Election Results are here: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08results.html

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2 Million.

Democrats: 42% (+200k vs. Republicans)

Republicans: 33%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 25%.

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party.

Ratings:

Tossup-Margin less than 3%.

Lean-3-10% margin.

Likely-11-20% margin.

Safe-More than 20% margin.

Inc=Incumbent, Int=Interim Incumbent (Someone appointed to fill a seat until the next election due typically to resignation of the previous holder.  State law allows the party which held the seat to essentially appoint the replacement.  For example, when my State Senator resigned to take a job as the leader of a moderate Business Lobbying group, as a Precinct Committee Person I was entitled to vote for his replacement, which was then ratified by the County Commission).

Statewide Races:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D).

Summary: The fact that McCain isn’t even trying to contest Oregon says a lot.  It would be a reach for him at best.  Obama, on the other hand, sent a bunch of the Obama fellows here a few weeks ago and is ramping up for the fall.

Rating: Leans to Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D).

Summary: This continues to be a bit of an uphill battle for Merkley.  However, Gordon’s Smith strange tack to the left, which has been widely discussed here and elsewhere, makes one wonder how this race is really shaping up.  Smith’s biggest advantage is still his $ lead but that is diminishing.  

Rating: Leans Smith.

Secretary of State

Candidates: State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown (D) vs. Eugene TV Reporter Rick Dancer (R).

Summary: Kate Brown is going to absolutely kick the crap out of Dancer.  Dancer isn’t even that good of a candidate.  On an early appearance on Lars Larson’s talk radio program (he’s a well known conservative for those who don’t know), he seemed unaware of much of what the SOS actually does.

Rating: Likely to Safe Brown.

Attorney General

John Kroger (D) is unopposed.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R).

Summary: It is always so fan to see the Republicans go after Westlund, who used to be one of them until he saw the light.  Ben has the support of those on both sides of the aisle and should cruise to an easy victory here.

Rating: Likely to Safe Westlund.

Labor Commissioner (Technically a nonpartisan race, 2 year vacancy filling election)

Candidates: Former State Senator Brad Avakian (D-inc.) vs. Founder, Instructor/Provider of a physical and mental fitness program Pavel Goberman (D).

Summary: Avakian should have little trouble, given his status as a well known figure in state politics.

Rating: Safe Avakian.

Congressional Races:

District 1: Wu (D-inc) will cruise.

District 2: Walden (R-inc) will have little trouble.  If the margin is under 10% that’s a victory for the Ds.

District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc) is well-loved in this district and for good reason.

District 4: DeFazio (D-inc) is unopposed.

District 5

Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).

Registration Info: 161k Ds, 142k Rs, 98k NP/Others.

Summary: Time was this was considered one of the most contentious house races in the country.  Then two things happened.  First, the Obama registration boost changed this district from one with a very slight D edge to a somewhat substantial one.  Second, Kevin Mannix, who lost the R primary to Erickson, accused Erickson, who had claimed he was pro-life, of paying for a former girlfriend’s abortion.  This assertion was proven to be at least somewhat true and the resulting turmoil, along with some other recent discoveries has knocked Erickson well behind the pace.  Still, he can self-finance to a significant enough extent that this race is not out of reach for him.

Rating: Leans Schrader.  

Oregon Legislature:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D).

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

The following districts are competitive, or at least potentially competitive.

9 (Stayton)

Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).

Registration: R+4.5k.

Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs.  Girod still has the edge though.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Girod.

12 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Brian Boquist (R) vs. Kevin Nortness (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: The Rs had to scramble to get Boquist to run for this fairly safe seat.  This district is certainly changing but I don’t know if it is changing fast enough or if Nortness is a good enough candidate to replace the well-known Boquist.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Boquist.

14 (West Slope/Beaverton-My district!)

Candidates: Mark Hass (D-int) vs. Lisa Michaels (R).

Registration: D+10k.

Summary: In 2000 this seat was the site of the most expensive legislative campaign in OR history to that point as Ryan Deckert (D) unseated Eileen Qutub (R).  My how things change as the popular Hass looks ready to cruise here.

Outlook: Likely Hass.

27 (Bend)

Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).

Registration: R+3.5k

Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican).  That being said, I think its far more possible that a hold could occur now given the blue trend of Deschutes County, the center of this district.

Outlook: Leans Telfer.

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 21 R, 7 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn’t find an opponent for her.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

21 (Salem)-Clem (D).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).

43 (Portland)-Shields (D).

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).

The following seats are competitive:

6 (Medford)

Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).

Registration: R+3.5k

Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win.  My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.

Outlook: Leans Esquivel.

7 (Roseburg)

Candidates: Bruce Hanna (R-inc) vs. Donald Nordin (D).

Registration: R+1.6k

Summary: This would be my shocker of the year if an upset happened.  This district, which has been solidly red for decades, or so it seems, has seen a huge drop in the Republican registration edge.  Hanna is also not the greatest politician in the world to begin with but still has an edge here.

Outlook: Leans Hanna.

9 (Coos Bay)

Candidates: Arnie Roblan (D-inc.) vs. Al Pearn (R).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: This 2006 rematch should not be any different than the last one.  Roblan has a good read on this district and should win his easiest battle yet.  

Outlook: Leans Roblan.

15 (Albany)

Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).

Registration: D and R even

Summary: This district was not on anyone’s list but mine two years ago as potentially competitive.  Now with an even registration mix, a chance for an upset is there.  Olson, a former State Policeman, has the edge at this point though.

Outlook: Leans Olson.

17 (Scio)

Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset.  Add to that the fact that Sprenger has never won a general election here.  Still, this is definitely a district with an R tilt, so it’ll be an uphill battle.

Outlook: Leans Sprenger.

18 (Silverton)

Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: Jim Gilbert is back for another attempt at an upset here.  This is clearly his best chance yet but it won’t be easy.

Outlook: Leans Gilliam.

19 (Salem)

Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).

Registration: R+1k

Summary: This is a district that should be more competitive than it has in the past.  With a lack of need to defend their own seats, this may become a statewide target, which makes an upset possible.

Outlook: Leans Cameron.

20 (Independence/Monmouth)

Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc.) vs. Richard Riggs (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy.  She’s in for fight for her life this time due much more to both the state of the Republican party and the slight D registration edge though.

Outlook: Tossup.

22 (Woodburn)

Candidates: Betty Komp (D-inc.) vs. Tom Chereck (R).

Registration: D+2k.

Summary: I have to put this as competitive because its Woodburn.  However, Komp has really done a great job in this district and should win pretty easily.  Interestingly, this district has the lowest number of registered voters in the state, likely due to the large number of undocumented workers living here.

Outlook: Leans Komp.

23 (Dallas)

Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: This open seat battle could be one for the books.  That being said, I have to give the edge to Thompson for now because it is an R-leaning district.

Outlook: Leans Thompson.

24 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006.  If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here.  I’m moving this one to a tossup.

Outlook: Tossup.

26 (Wilsonville)

Candidates: Matt Wingard (R) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap.  In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for hitting his children before.  However, this is still an R district so Wingard has a slight edge.

Outlook: Leans Wingard.

29 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: Chuck Riley (D-inc.) vs. TBD (R) and Terry Rilling (R turned I).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: Rilling’s decision to run as an I likely will give Riley an easy win.  Not that he wouldn’t have won anyways.  Add to that the ruling by the SOS that former R candidate Jeff Duyck doesn’t actually live in this district and is therefore ineligible to run for it and this race is close to sliding off the competitive race board.

Outlook: Leans Riley.

30 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: The Republicans are all excited that Duyck is going to be their candidate here.  The well-known Washington County Commissioner is a solid candidate but this is not the Hillsboro that existed ten or even five years ago.  It has taken a solid blue turn and add to that the fact that Edwards is battle tested and he should win.

Outlook: Leans Edwards.

35 (Tigard)

Candidates: Larry Galizio (D-inc.) vs. Tony Marino (R).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: Tony Marino’s story keeps getting weirder and weirder.  First it was his criminal record, then it was the revelation that he was an online ordained Priest and now the information that he runs an online diploma mill.  Add to that the fact that this district, which Galizio won by a scant 850 votes four years ago, is no longer really a tossup district and Larry should win easily here.  This race may slide off the competitive races board by the next update.

Outlook: Leans Galizio.

37 (West Linn)

Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: Bruun is a well-known figure in this district; his family has run a construction business for over 100 years in the area.  Still, this year he will have to fight hard to keep this swing district, which now has even registration.

Outlook: Tossup.

38 (Lake Oswego)

Candidates: Chris Garrett (D) vs. Steve Griffith (R).

Registration: D+6k

Summary: If Griffith were a D, which he practically is in many ways, this district would be his.  However, he is not.  Add to that this district’s substantial D edge and the fact that Griffith will not likely get the $ he needs to be competitive and Garrett should cruise.

Outlook: Leans Garrett.

39 (Canby)

Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).

Registration: D+.5k

Summary: Kossack Mike Caudle almost pulled off a major upset here in 2006 against the then R-leader Wayne Scott. As an open seat race, this one is too close to call.

Outlook: Tossup.

49 (Gresham)

Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).

Registration: D+4k

Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district.  With her out of the picture, this should be a D pickup, especially with the substantial D edge in this district.

Outlook: Leans Kahl.

50 (Fairview)

Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).

Registration: D+2.5k

Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery.  He should be in for the fight of his life this year with this district clearly trending blue.

Outlook: Tossup.

51 (Clackamas)

Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores.  Barton has as good a chance as anyone, although it is definitely an uphill battle, despite the small D registration edge.

Outlook: Leans Flores.

52 (Corbett)

Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland.  This is a dead tossup district this year and should be fun to watch.

Outlook: Tossup.

54 (Bend)

Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years.  This could well be the year Stiegler, who barely lost to Burley in an open seat race here four years ago, breaks through and wins it.

Outlook: Tossup.

59 (The Dalles)

Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).

Registration: R+1k97

Summary: This was the district that shocked everyone in 2006 as it was almost a D pickup.  However, I think Huffman will not be caught unaware as a result, though an upset is possible.

Outlook: Leans Huffman.

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.