Tag: OR-2

This latest in my continuing series of diaries on Oregon politics will discuss the current status of Oregon’s political landscape by using voter registration as a guide.  With this model, we can see clearly how strongly the Democratic party is positioned for this fall.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Key:

Names listed are those of the party’s candidate holding the seat.

For Congressional districts, multiply the State Senate values by five.

Strong District: Oregon House Voter Reg. Difference 10k or more, Senate Voter Reg. 20k or more.

Likely District: Oregon House 5-10k Difference, Senate 10-20k Difference.

Lean District: Oregon House 3-5k Difference, Senate 6-9k Difference.

Tossup District: Oregon House less than 3k Difference, Senate less than 6k Difference.

*=Opposition party has registration edge of 1k or more.

x=Candidate is unopposed (by a major party candidate).

All values are rounded to the nearest thousand, source of data is: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/may202008/p08stats.pdf.

My read on the state of the races is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (D): D+ 57k, Likely D.

District 2 (R): R+ 33k, Leans R.

District 3 (D): D+ 125k, Strong D.

District 4 (D): D+ 36k, Leans D.

District 5 (D): D+ 19k, Tossup.

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Seats NOT up for re-election this year:

Total: 14 (Due to a vacancy filler election in one district).

D-Held: 10.

R-Held; 4.

Summary:

Strong D: 3

Likely D: 2

Lean D: 3

Tossup D: 1.

Strong R: 0.

Likely R: 2.

Leans R: 3.

Tossup R: 2.

Uncontested Races:

D-Held: 5, 3 Strong, 2 Lean.

R-Held: 3, 1 Likely, 2 Lean.

Districts in which the opposition party has a voter registration edge:

D: 1, Westlund’s seat.

R: 0.

Up For Re-Election:

Strong Districts:

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D)-x.

22 (Portland)-Carter (D)-x.

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D)-x.

Likely Districts:

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

17 (Beaverton)-Bonamicci (D)-2 year vacancy filler)

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R)-x.

Lean Districts:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D)-x.

14 (West Slope)-Hass (D).

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-x.

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R)-x.

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R)-x.

Tossup Districts:

9 (Stayton)-Girod (R).

12 (McMinville)-Boquist (R).

27 (Bend)-Telfer (R)*-Pickup from Westlund (D).

Oregon House:

All the seats are up for election this year.

Current Composition: 31D, 29R.

Summary:

Strong D: 9.

Likely D: 10.

Leans D: 7.

Tossup D: 5.

Strong R: 0.

Likely R: 4.

Leans R: 5.

Tossup R: 20.

Uncontested Races:

D-Held: 19, 7 Strong, 6 Likely, 4 Lean, 2 Tossup.

R-Held: 6, 4 Likely, 1 Lean, 1 Tossup.

Districts in which the opposition party has a voter registration edge:

D-Held: 0.

R-Held: 6 (Berger, Nelsen, Lim, Flores, Lindland, Burley).

Strong Districts:

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D)-x.

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D)-x.

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D)-x.

43 (Portland)-Shields (D)-x.

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D)-x.

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D)-x.

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D)-x.

Likely Districts:

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R)-x.

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D)-x.

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-x.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D)-x.

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D)-x.

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D)-x.

38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D)-x.

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R)-x.

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R)-x.

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R)-x.

Lean Districts:

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

6 (Medford)-Esquivel (R).

9 (Coos Bay)-Roblan (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D)-x.

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D)-x.

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D)-x.

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D)-x.

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R)-x.

Tossup Districts:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

7 (Roseburg)-Hanna (R).

15 (Albany)-Olson (R).

17 (Scio)-Sprenger (R).

18 (Silverton)-Gilliam (R).

19 (Salem)-Cameron (R).

20 (Independence/Monmouth)-Berger (R)*.

21 (Salem)-Clem (D)-x.

22 (Woodburn)-Komp (D).

23 (Dallas)-Thompson (R).

24 (McMinnville)-Wiedner (R).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R)-x.

26 (Wilsonville)-Wingard (R).

29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).

30 (Hillsboro)-Edwards (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D)-x.

37 (West Linn)-Bruun (R).

39 (Canby)-Kennemer (R).

49 (Gresham)-Nelsen (R)*.

50 (Fairview)-Lim (R)*.

51 (Clackamas)-Flores (R)*.

52 (Corbett)-Lindland (R)*.

54 (Bend)-Burley (R)*.

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

59 (The Dalles)-Huffman (R).

Let me know what you think.

In order so that those of you who have been reading my Oregon politics diaries can understand who these people are I have been talking about, I present the following entry.  For brevity’s sake, only statewide and congressional candidates will be discussed.

For your information, my last Oregon elections preview is here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/10/12954/7313/791/549408.

Cross posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1234

Statewide Offices:

US Senate (R Defending)

Incumbent: Gordon Smith

Party: Republican.

Birthdate: 05/25/1952

Hometown: Pendleton.

Experience in Current Job: 12 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Oregon State Senator 1993-1997

President, Oregon State Senate 1995-1997.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-40%.

ACLU-57%.

Gun Owners of America-0% last year, 100% the year before that.

AFL-CIO-44%.

Did You Know: Gordon Smith’s brother Milan Dale Smith, Jr. is a federal judge, appointed by Dubya in 2006 to the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals.

Challenger: Jeff Merkley

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 10/24/1956

Hometown: Portland.

Experience in Current Job (If an elected official): 10 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Speaker of the House, Oregon State House of Representatives, present

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1998-present.

Democratic Leader, Oregon State House of Representatives.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-75%.

NRA-F, every year they have rated him.

AFL-CIO-94%.

Did You Know: Among his previous work, Merkley was head of Portland Habitat for Humanity, where he successfully helped expand the program’s reach and success.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (D Defending):

Incumbent: David Wu

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 04/08/1955

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: 10 Years

Previous Government Experience: Commissioner, Oregon Planning Commission.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-100%.

NRA-F.

AFL-CIO-96%.

Did You Know: David Wu was the first-ever Taiwanese-American representative.

Challenger: Joel Haugen

Party: Republican

Birthdate: 11/19/1949

Hometown: Scapoose

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: Scappoose Park and Recreation Commissioner, Scappoose Park and Recreation Commission, 2002-2004.

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: He cites as his political inspiration a Minnesota legislator by the name of John McKee.

District 2 (R Defending)

Incumbent: Greg Walden

Party: Republican

Birthdate: 01/10/1957

Hometown: Hood River

Experience in Current Job: 10 Years.

Previous Government Experience:

Senator, Oregon State Senate, 1995-1997

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1988-1995

Majority Leader, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1991-1993

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100% last year, 35% the year before.

ACLU-17%.

NRA-A.

AFL-CIO-42%.

Did You Know: Until recently Walden owned Columbia Gorge Broadcasting, which ran five radio stations in the Columbia Gorge area.

Challenger: Noah Lemas

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 02/16/1970

Hometown: Bend

Experience in Current Job: N/A.

Previous Government Experience: N/A.

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A.

Did You Know: Noah has been a successful entrepreneur in the snowboard industry, building and then selling off two companies (Sunriver Snowboards and Side Effect Board Shop).

District 3 (D Defending)

Incumbent: Earl Blumenauer

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 08/16/1949

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: 12 Years.

Previous Government Experience:

Commissioner of Public Works, Portland City Council, 1986-1996

Commissioner, Multnomah County Commission, 1978-1986

Representative, Oregon State House, 1973-1978.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-100%.

NRA-F.

AFL-CIO-96%.

Did You Know: Earl got his start in elected office in the 1970s as a proponent of the Right to Die, Right to Vote Constitutional amendment, which lowered the voting age to 18.

Challenger: Delia Lopez

Party: Republican

Birthdate: 02/14/1963

Hometown: Oakland (OR)

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: N/A

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: Is running in Earl’s district despite the fact that she lives in the fourth district, in which Peter DeFazio (D) is unopposed.

District 4 (D Unopposed)

Incumbent: Peter DeFazio

Party: Democratic

Birthdate: 05/27/1947

Hometown: Springfield

Experience in Current Job: 22 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Chair, Lane County Commission, 1982-1986.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-100%.

NRA-B.

AFL-CIO-96%.

Did You Know: In his prior life before becoming an elected official, DeFazio was a gerontologist (someone who studies the social, psychological and biological aspects of aging).

District 5 (D Open)

Democrat: Kurt Schrader

Birthdate: N/A.

Hometown: Canby.

Experience in Current Job: 6 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Senator, Oregon State Senate, 2002-present

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1996-2002

Former Chair, Canby, Oregon Planning Commission.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-67%.

NRA-B-.

AFL-CIO-89%.

Did You Know: Kurt has been both an organic farmer and a veterinarian.  His wife is currently chair of the Clackamas County Board of Commissioners.

Republican: Mike Erickson

Birthdate: N/A

Hometown: Salem

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: N/A

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: Erickson was the placekicker and punter for Portland State’s football team and still holds the school record for career field goals made with 32.

Statewide Offices:

Attorney General (D Unopposed)

Democrat: John Kroger

Birthdate: N/A

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: Deputy Policy Director of Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign, legislative assistant to U. S. Representative Tom Foley (D-WA) and U. S. Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY).

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A.

Did You Know: Kroger was a well-respected prosecutor, having won cases against defendants ranging from Mafia kingpins to Enron executives before moving to Portland to become a professor at the Lewis and Clark Law School.

Secretary of State (D Open)

Democrat: Kate Brown

Birthdate: 06/21/1960

Hometown: Portland

Experience in Current Job: 12 Years.

Previous Government Experience: Senator, Oregon State Senate, 1996-present

Representative, Oregon State House of Representatives, 1991-1996.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-56%.

NRA-F.

AFL-CIO-89%.

Did You Know: Kate Brown was born in Torrejon de Ardoth, Spain and grew up in Minnesota.  Before running for elective office, she was an attorney, practicing Family and Juvenile law.

Republican: Rick Dancer

Birthdate: N/A

Hometown: Eugene

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: N/A

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A

Did You Know: Dancer’s last job was an the anchor for Eugene’s ABC affiliate, KEZI.

State Treasurer (D Open)

Democrat: Ben Westlund

Birthdate: 09/03/1949

Hometown: Bend

Experience in Current Job: 6 Years.

Previous Government Experience:

Senator, Oregon State Senate, 2002-present

Representative, Oregon State House, 1997-2002.

Key Interest Group Ratings:

NARAL-100%.

ACLU-50%.

NRA-A+ (While still a Republican)

AFL-CIO-100%.

Did You Know: In response to a number of his positions, not least of which was his fight for GLBT rights and universal health care, opposed by the Republican Party, Westlund switched from Republican to Independent in 2006 and then from Independent to Democrat last year.

Republican: Allen Alley

Birthdate: N/A.

Hometown: Lake Oswego

Experience in Current Job: N/A

Previous Government Experience: Former Deputy Chief of Staff to Governor Kulongoski (D) for about a year.

Key Interest Group Ratings: N/A.

Did You Know: Alley was the co-founder and former CEO of Pixelworks, a “Semiconductor company which designs, develops and markets highly integrated system-on-a-chip solutions for broadband communications.”

Let me know what you think.