Author: sulthernao

Redistricting North Carolina (w/ data)

Well I really liked Johnny Longtorso’s map of North Carolina, so I decided to expand on that and create a similar map while figuring out the partisan data for each district. Nothing fancy, just county level voting for the 2008 election. The map is 9-4-1, either 9-5 or 10-4 depending on whether a Democrat can defeat Myrick.

Unfortunately, according to the new census report North Carolina will probably not get a 14th district. Plus it probably violates VRA, but it’s an example of how the VRA hurts Democrats in redistricting. So this map is a bit useless, but I like it.  

Congressional District 1: Butterfield (D)

County Obama Vote McCain Vote
Vance 13,166 7,606
Warren 7,086 3,063
Franklin 13,085 13,273
Nash 23,099 23,728
Wilson* 19,652 17,375
Greene 3,796 4,272
Edgecombe 17,403 8,445
Halifax 16,047 8,961
Northampton 6,903 3,671
Hertford 7,513 3,089
Gates 2,830 2,547
Bertie 6,365 3,376
Martin 6,539 5,957
Pitt 40,501 33,927
Washington*
Total 183,985 139,290
New % 56.91%
Old % 62.72%

This is now a 41% Black district (still majority minority) down from 50.6%. And probably a violation of the VRA. Butterfield Got 70.28% in the old district. Likely Democratic (Safe with Butterfield).

Congressional District 2: Etheridge (D)

County Obama Vote McCain Vote
Harnett 16,785 23,579
Johnston 26,795 43,622
Wake* 110,410 76,809
Wilson*
Total 153,990 144,010
New % 51.67%
Old % 52.33%

Leans Democratic. (Safe with Etheridge).

Congressional District 3: Jones (R)

County Obama Vote McCain Vote
Brunswick 21,331 30,753
Onslow 19,499 30,278
Craven 19,352 24,901
Carteret 11,130 23,131
Pamlico 2,838 3,823
Beaufort 9,454 13,460
Hyde 1,241 1,212
Dare 8,074 9,745
Tyrrell 933 960
Washington 3,748 2,670
Chowan 3,688 3,773
Perquimans 2,772 3,678
Camden 1,597 3,140
Pasquotank 10,272 7,778
Currituck 3,737 7,234
Pender* 9,907 13,618
New Hanover* 49,145 50,544
Total* 119,666 166,536
New % 38.14%
Old % 41.81%

District 3 basically gets all the Republican friendly coastal counties in one district. It’s also is the most visually gerrymandered district as it avoids taking Wilmington from the the 7th district. Safe Republican.

Congressional District 4: Price (D)

County Obama Vote McCain Vote
Alamance 28,918 34,859
Orange 53,806 20,266
Durham 103,456 32,353
Chatham 17,862 14,668
Lee 10,784 12,775
Total 214,826 114,921
New % 65.15%
Old % 63.32%

District consists of Durham, Chapel Hill, and Burlington. Looses parts of Wake, gains the entirety of Almanace, Chatham and Lee counties. It’s a very compact district and keeps all the counties together, but I think that there are a bit too many Democrats in this district (I’d aim for more around 60%). Safe Democratic.

Congressional District 5: Foxx (R)

County Obama Vote McCain Vote
Mitchell 2,238 5,499
Avery 2,178 5,681
Watauga 14,558 13,344
Caldwell 12,081 22,526
Alexander 5,167 11,790
Iredell 27,318 45,148
Wilkes 8,934 20,288
Ashe 4,872 7,916
Alleghany 2,021 3,124
Surry 10,475 18,730
Yadkin 4,527 12,409
Davie 6,178 13,981
Stokes 6,875 14,488
Total 107,422 194,924
New % 35.53%
Old % 39.37%

Ugh. So this one really hurt as I passionately hate Virginia Foxx. So that’s probably the best news about this map being ruined with North Carolina only getting 13 districts. Hopefully more  Republican areas can get eaten up by 10th district and Winston-Salem can be incorporated into the 5th to make at least a 45%+ area where Foxx shouldn’t be able to win. As it stands, this Northwestern congressional district is Obama’s worst district aptly home to batshit insane Foxx. Safe Republcian.

Congressional District 6: Coble(R)

County Obama Vote McCain Vote
Rowan 23,391 37,451
Davidson 22,433 45,419
Randolph 16,414 40,998
Rockingham* 17,255 23,899
Guilford* 45,000 45,000
Guilford* 142,101 97,718
Total* 124,493 192,767
New % 39.24%
Old % 36.52%

Without the 14th district, this too probably will get more Democratic as it will get Greensboro and cede some Republican area to the too Democratic 4th district. But as it stands it is Safe Republican.

Congressional District 7: McIntyre(D)

County Obama Vote McCain Vote
Columbus 11,076 12,994
Bladen 7,853 7,532
Duplin 8,958 10,834
Sampson 11,836 14,038
Lenoir 13,378 13,401
Wayne 22,671 26,952
Jones 2,378 2,817
Pender* 9,907 13,618
New Hanover* 49,145 50,544
Cumberland* 15,400 10,000
Total 152,602 162,730
New % 48.39%
Old % 47.20%

Considering that this is a McCain district, I made sure that I kept all of McIntyre’s base intact I gave most of Robeson County to the 8th to strengthen Kissell, though I attempted to snake McIntyre’s home (Lumberton) into the district.  This district is a percentage better than before. My reason for adding the rest of Sampson, all of Lenoir and Wayne is because while the counties are all either Republican or Tossup, they all seem like McIntyre can do well and build a Democratic base in.

Since from what I can see Generic Democrat did about 3% better than Obama this district is Tossup Democratic. (Safe for McIntyre).

Congressional District 8: Kissell(D)

County Obama Vote McCain Vote
Total 138,448 118,982
Anson 6,456 4,207
Montgomery 4,926 6,155
Richmond 9,713 9,424
Moore 17,624 27,314
Scotland 8,151 6,005
Hoke 9,227 6,293
Robeson 23,058 17,433
Cumberland* 59,293 42,151
Total 138,448 118,982
New % 53.78%
Old % 52.96%

I made Kissell’s district a bit more Democratic by  grabbing more of Fayetteville and Robeson and Republican Moore, but loosing all the Republican territory in Cabarrus, Stanly, and Union and Republican part of Mecklenburg (Charlotte) which he lost 34.7k to 46.4k. This is now Leans to  Likely Democratic.

Congressional District 9: Myrick (R)

County Obama Vote McCain Vote
Union 31,189 54,123
Stanly 8,878 19,329
Cabarrus 31,546 45,924
Mecklenburg* 76,958 30,848
Total 148,571 150,224
New % 49.72%
Old % 45.11%

This is a pretty spiteful gerrymander specifically to get rid of Myrick  

MN-Sen, Coleman retracts comments

http://www.startribune.com/pol…

Earlier Friday, during an energy-related visit to Wright County, Coleman expressed second thoughts about a statement he made the morning after the Nov. 4 election.

Asked whether he would concede the race if the Canvassing Board certified Franken as the winner — as Coleman had suggested that Franken should do that post-election morning — the senator noted that at the time his 700-plus-vote lead over Franken was more substantial and that he hadn’t slept in 36 hours. Now, he said, “I don’t think I’d have made the same statement.”

Hilarious.

It’s Day 4 and apparently Coleman’s lead is down to 115 with 64% counted. There are over 1600 questioned ballots (pretty evenly distributed amongst Coleman and Franken), so that’s what it is going to come down to. Also, since the precincts counted have been redder than the actual results, we most likely have more than the 56 ballots that you could extrapolate from the data (it’s really hard to extrapolate because the of issue of questioned ballots).

Some of the questioned ballots seem to be frivolous and will almost certainly be decided quickly:

Coleman officials taped 51 ballots challenged by Franken officials on a wall and podium and labeled them “Franken’s Frivolous Follies.” Most the ballots were from Meeker County and marked with an X rather than a filled-in oval.

…

For their part, Franken officials showed a series of ballots challenged by the Coleman camp that showed a vote for Republican presidential candidate John McCain and either a vote for Franken or no one for senator. “Now, that’s silly,” Elias said.

Since the number of questioned ballots are nearly the same, and it looks the results might close around Coleman+50, it’s going to come down to who is making the less frivolous challenges.