Author: verasoie

OR-5 is one of the most vulnerable Democratic-held seats this cycle, as the current Democratic incumbent Darlene Hooley has decided to resign. Rep. Hooley won this swing-district, which actually has a Republican registration plurality, by typically about 10% based on her moderate voting record, and as an open seat it is being hotly contested in the Republican primary.

For more background, see my previous diary on this topic: http://www.dailykos.com/…

Today, the strongest and most well-known Republican candidate, Kevin Mannix, made his official declaration, setting off what will likely be a bloody primary on the Repubilcan side.

Update: The MSM is finally starting to report this: blog.oregonlive.com/politics/2008/03/mannix_makes_it_official_hes_r.html

as is the most prominent Oregon political blog:

www.blueoregon.com/2008/03/the-trouble-wit.html

www.blueoregon.com/2008/03/mannix-running.html

Presently, the only site mentioning this is a right-wing blog that I won’t link, especially as they don’t provide any substantive information or links, but Kevin Mannix had already announced his intention to announce “something” this morning, and it was widely anticipated that he would run, so this hardly breaking news.

However, it is worth knowing that Kevin Mannix previously represented parts of this rural/suburban/urban mixed district as a state legislator, and has run (and lost) for statewide office FOUR times previously (AGx2, Governorx2), so he has wide name recognition and conservative credentials, especially as the former head of the Oregon GOP. He will be a very strong candidate in the primary and general election.

The other declared Republican candidate, Mike Erickson, is an independently wealthy businessman who mainly self-financed a losing effort against Darlene Hooley last time, losing 54-43 in 2006. He is generally considered a fairly bland candidate without prior experience in government or elected office who has not articulated specific policy positions. This is in strong contrast to Kevin Mannix, who has made a small fortune in the past few years by pushing multiple ballot measures onto the ballot, and has a vast electoral experience of staking out conservative stances on issues.

One tidbit from the right-wing website was that Mannix apparently has a 37% edge in a head-to-head poll against Erickson, so he’s going to have to pile in a ton of his cash to make that up.

Personally, I think this contest will be a tough hold for the Democrats this fall, but it is possible. The most prominent Democrat candidate (of two), Kurt Schrader, is a pretty good candidate as a State Senator who  has a good background on rural and suburban issues, and though he is more conservative than I would like, he may be a wash for Darlene votewise. For the sake of completeness, another Democrat, Steve Marks, former chief-of-staff to popular former Democratic governor John Kitzhaber, has also recently declared for this seat. He is suspected to be more progressive than Schrader, but with a far lower name recognition and a lack of an established constituency.

http://www.blueoregon.com/…

Finally, I’d like to see how the left-wing perspective on a contested primary here for the Republicans compares with what we feel about the contested primary for the Democratic presidential nomination, i.e. can a contested primary be “bad” for them in this district, but “good” for the Democrats? or are they both “bad” or “good”?

Cross-posted at dailykos:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

OR-5 is one of the few Democratic House vacancies this cycle that will be closely contested by Republicans, as the Democratic incumbent who is retiring, Darlene Hooley, has typically won about 55-45 or tighter since she first won the seat in 1996.

With Darlene’s abrupt announcement of her retirement this month and the primary on May 20, the clock has been ticking on who will be the Democratic candidate to declare for the race, until now: State Sen. Kurt Schrader.

Sen. Schrader is a veterinarian and farmer who lives in an exurb of Portland, Canby, and who has been active in county in state politics for decades, having served on numerous county commissions and farm boards prior to becoming a state legislator in 1996. Notably, his wife is also prominent in politics as a county commissioner and it was uncertain until today which one would run for this seat.

More on Kurt Schrader:

http://www.leg.state.or.us/sch… and

http://dkosopedia.com/wiki/Kur…

Today, he announced that he would be running for OR-5, a mixed rural/suburban/urban district that runs from a sliver of downtown Portland to include much rural farmland and a part of the coast, along with the state capital Salem:

http://www.blueoregon.com/2008…

Personally, I believe he is a pretty good fit for this district, given his strong constituency in the Portland exurbs/suburbs while having obvious professional connections to the rural interests.  

I don’t know Schrader well, but he appears to be a fairly good Democrat, not exceptionally progressive but certainly someone we could be happy with in this swing district and would probably represent a wash with Hooley. Also, at 57 years of age, he should be good for ten years at least in this seat if (once) he wins, especially with the Portland suburbs trending increasingly Democratic of late. And lastly, Schrader is mid-term in his Oregon State Senate seat, so if he were to lose, he would maintain his seat, which would likely be hotly contested too, although the Democrats have a sizable (18-12) advantage in the State Senate.

His opponents include:

Mike Erickson (declared), a milquetoast business-owner and multimillionaire who was defeated handily by Hooley last time 54-43 during his first foray into politics.

Kevin Mannix (all-but-declared), the odious former Oregon GOP chair who has lost multiple statewide races for Governor (in the general and primary) and Attorney General (2x) after having defected from the Democratic Party as a state legislator in 1997. He has significant name recognition in the district as he represented part of it until 2000 as a state legislator, and from his statewide races, but most notably of late he has been the author of multiple contentious conservative ballot measures that have become a gravy train for him.

A bloody primary is expected between Erickson and Mannix, as the former can spend tons of his own dough and ran last time, whereas Mannix has more Republican establishment support.

Schrader is the first and probably only Democrat to declare in this race as several other likely candidates have declined to run and he should be able to begin accumulating a sizable warchest before facing off against the Republican nominee after the May 20 primary. As such, this could be a very good chance at a hold for the Democrats while being a close enough district to get the NRCC to spend some scarce resources, though it is by no means a gimme—- it will take a lot of work to hold this race against either candidate, but in a Presidential year, this should be a toss-up to lean-Dem seat.

N.B. As of yet, I can not find a campaign website for Schrader.

Crossposted at dKos: http://www.dailykos.com/story/…