Month: May 2007

On national maps North Carolina is often colored red.  We havent voted for a Democrat for the White House since Carter in 1976.  But that might be changing.

In a new poll by Public Policy Polling, when asked who they would vote for in the 2008 Presidential election, 42 percent of voters said a Republican.  But, in a huge surprise, 47 percent of voters said a Democrat.

PPP has been doing a lot of tracking polls lately, and I have a large amount of respect for them and their sister company, On Point Polling.  This poll was done with 606 voters.  The way PPP does their sampling, these were people who will be voting in 2008.

This poll (PDF) has some incredibly interesting results within it.  The question that will get the most media attention is the matchup question between Elizabeth Dole and Roy Cooper.  In that race, Dole is under 50 percent, and has a lead of 46 to 36.  That means that so far Dole has polled at 45 and 44 against 2 Democratic Congressman, 40 percent against our governor, and 46 percent against our Attorney General.

She is in a ton of trouble.

Her approval rating is plus 4, 45% to 41%.  President Bush’s numbers are also ugly, with a negative 11 rating.

The poll also asked if people would be more or less likely to vote Democratic based upon specific nominees.  Surprisingly for me, Hillary does a lot better on this question that I would have expected.  The details though are not all that surprising.  Obama would give huge motivation to black voters, and Hillary is hated by Republicans.  Nothing really shocking.

This poll also contained some very interesting crosstabs.  For instance, we are home to both Ft Bragg and Camp Lejeune, among other bases.  Both of these massive installations are within the 910 area code.  In that area code, Bush’s approval rating is 47 to 45 (plus 2).  On the generic ballot, a Democratic Presidential candidate leads 46 to 42.  The best part is that those numbers are before we start showing ads like this for the third Senator from Virginia.

In addition to this poll, a new poll by Conservative, Non Partisan Republican think tank Civitas shows even worse results for Bush and national Republicans.  I take all of their results with a grain of salt, but their poll showed Bush with a 39 percent approval rating, with 57 percent disapproving (43% strongly disapprove).  Even more telling is their question about the surge strategy:

Do you think the President’s new strategy in Iraq along with the troop surge is:
Improving the Situation 19%
Not making much difference 34%
Making things worse 36%

That is right.  In “Red” North Carolina, the most military friendly state in the country, 70% of voters think the surge is either useless or counterproductive.

Dole has been an unapologetic supporter of Bush.  In fact, in February there was an article in the Charlotte Observer talking about how she was taking a stand separate from most of her fellow NC Republicans to support the surge loudly in public.  Sadly, I cant find that article without paying big bucks for it.

Add on top of all of these polls an article written by Stuart Rothenberg prior to these results about Texas and North Carolina.

In contrast, Democrats have won the past four gubernatorial elections in North Carolina, and the party last won a Senate seat in 1998. While Republicans hold all of the most high-profile statewide offices in Texas, Democrats hold the top offices in North Carolina. And while Republicans hold both chambers of the Texas state Legislature, Democrats have solid majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina Legislature.
:::
On the other hand, Rep. Brad Miller and North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper reportedly are considering a challenge to Dole, and Tar Heel State Democrats are in a far stronger position to recruit a candidate against the Republican Senator.
:::
Dole isn’t much more vulnerable until Democrats get a formidable candidate in the race, but if and when they do, the state’s dynamics, at the very least, offer them a scenario for success.

North Carolina, therefore, bears watching.

In light of all the polling that we have seen in this race, I would say Rothenberg’s analysis is actually pessimistic.  But, he is obviously correct in saying that we need a top tier challenger.  I personally want to see Brad Miller take up the banner.  But no matter who runs she is vulnerable.

For more info on this race, and on a Brad candidacy please visit this website.

I got some press for the Draft Brad website yesterday.  It is only online for now, but its a start.

From the Columbus Dispatch:

Dean DePiero, the popular mayor of Parma, Ohio’s seventh largest city, said last week that he is considering challenging Kucinich, a six-term congressman from Lakewood, in next year’s March 4 primary election. DePiero, former minority leader of the Ohio House, will be unopposed for a new four-year mayoral term in November and could run from cover against Kucinich.

Cleveland-area political observers say that many residents of the 10th District are fed up with Kucinich’s quixotic quests for the presidency and grouse that he does not pay sufficient attention to the district. Even so, DePiero admitted that Kucinich would be difficult to beat in a primary in the district, which includes most of the west side of Cleveland and the western and southern suburbs in Cuyahoga County.

As the current mayor of Parma, Dean DePiero leads the largest suburb of Cleveland.  He also served as the Democratic Minority Leader in the state House before his election as mayor in 2004.  Should he decide to run, DePiero would give Kucinich his first major primary challenge in years, but it’s not yet clear how vulnerable Kucinich would be to such a campaign.  One thing’s for sure, though: Dennis’ Presidential aspirations would certainly be complicated if he had to spend his time battling in Cuyahoga County instead of Des Moines and Manchester.  I’m not yet on the bandwagon, but I am intrigued.  And by the looks of it, so are the Buckeye Staters.

Race Tracker: OH-10

Nationally, many pundits and bloggers didn’t take Nevada’s 2nd district too seriously in 2006. It was too safe a Republican district to be even slightly competitive, so the argument went.

Well, we all know that Dean Heller in the end won his election against Democrat Jill Derby. Against expectations though, his result wasn’t very convincing. The man who was elected Secretary of State of Nevada three times, barely won more than 50% of the vote in a district that doesn’t include Democratic Las Vegas. So today, I ventured out in search of Republicans who won their districts in 2006 and did worse than him. Turns out that there weren’t that many.

Only 11 Republicans were elected with a worse result than Heller. Among them: Rep. Sali of Idaho, Rep. Cubin of Wyoming, Rep. Musgrave of Colorado and Rep. Doolittle of California. All these districts were presumed to be safely in Republican hands. There was no way they would become competitive and yet they were.

Again, there is talk of Heller being safe, of other Republican districts more important than Nevada’s 2nd. This is reminder for all of these folks that Heller is among the vulnerable dozen Republicans currently serving in Congress:

  * 50.37% Heller
  * 50.24% Pryce (OH-15)
  * 50.21% Wilson (NM-01)
  * 50.14% Hayes (NC-08)
  * 50.08% Buchanan (FL-13)
  * 50.05% Bachmann (MN-06)
  * 49.95% Sali (ID-01)
  * 49.53% Ferguson (NJ-07)
  * 49.26% Doolittle (CA-04)
  * 48.46% Porter (NV-03)
  * 48.33% Cubin (WY-01)
  * 45.91% Musgrave (CO-04)

Results were taken from NPR.

PS: Please note that I only looked at how many people were willing to vote for the Republican, not how well the opponent did. This is not a diary on close margins. Feel free to comment on that below.

Cross posted from Helluva Heller, where Nevada bloggers have united to take down Heller in 2008.

Following up on last week’s updates:

Hal Daub’s announcement came with one significant surprise: He refused to rule out a run should Chuck Hagel decide to seek reelection. Daub is the ultimate Republican insider, a member of the Republican National Committee. He’s also very much part of Hagel’s circle. So, if Daub’s saying that he’s not going to base his decision on what Hagel does, that means one of two things. Either Hagel has already decided not to seek reelection, or he’s hemorrhaging support so badly that even Hal Daub doesn’t want to be tied to him. Either way, it’s going to be a tough road for Hagel to gain his party’s nomination for the U.S. Senate, especially after all the recent talk of running for President as an independent.

If Daub were to win his party’s nomination, it creates an interesting matchup should Mike Fahey run for the Democrats. A rematch of the 2001 Omaha Mayoral election, which Fahey won by a narrow margin.

But Daub’s is a history of electoral failure. He lost a primary challenge to David Karnes in 1988. Karnes was ultimately defeated by Bob Kerrey. He failed against Jim Exon in 1990. In 1997, he narrowly defeated Brenda Council in a campaign that was marred by race-baiting and outlandish stunts. (Daub actually took a polygraph test to “prove” he wasn’t a liar). By 2001, Omahans were so sick of Daub’s attitude that they were ready for someone new. Enter Mike Fahey. The last six years speak volumes, and Fahey’s landslide reelection victory in 2005 has helped to seal his legacy.

We are now less than a year from the primary. What comes next is anyone’s guess, but the field will be set by Labor Day.

In an unrelated note, we’ve got a big weekend in Nebraska – Nebraska Young Democrats are hosting YDA’s Spring National Conference in Omaha. Bill Richardson will be the keynote speaker on Friday. I mention this because I don’t think I can understate just how important the youth will be in 2008 for all of our candidates here. We saw young candidates like Jim Esch and Scott Kleeb do remarkably well for Nebraska, and energize a whole new generation of political activists in this state. It’s time to build on that for 2008.

Disappointing news:

After Peter DeFazio announced his decision not to run for the Senate, the race became an unavoidable topic. I said I would look at it and consider whether a candidacy made sense for me and my family. At this time, it does not, and I have decided not to run for the US Senate.

…

The difficulty in even doing the ground work to evaluate the race was that I have an important, all consuming day job. After years of working in the minority, fighting the Bush administration and Tom DeLay to stop reckless policies and promote Oregon priorities, the world has dramatically changed.

My issues, from ending the Iraq war to stopping global warming, to making sure everyone has health care they can afford, a quality education, and a good job, have gained not just attention, but traction and even momentum. My committee assignments put me in the best possible position to deal with these priorities everyday. I’ve been working for over a decade to get on the Ways and Means Committee and to regain a Democratic majority. I say with January both of these dreams become a reality. Speaker Nancy Pelosi also chose me to serve on the new Global Warming and Energy Independence Committee.

At this unique moment in history there is too much work to be done in the House of Representatives to take on a campaign for the US Senate.

As you can see, giving up a seat in the majority caucus in the House is tough indeed. All the more reason to be impressed with Mark Udall’s and Tom Allen’s decision to seek higher office. But they may be the only sitting Congressmen to do so this cycle. Chuck Schumer will likely have to look elsewhere for his top-tier recruits. However, I’m not all that worried – last cycle, only one of our top Senate candidates* was a member of the House. I think we’ll be able to find plenty of good office-seekers from other quarters this time, too.

* Who challenged an incumbent – Sherrod Brown. Brownsox reminds us about Ben Cardin, Bernie Sanders and Harold Ford.

This puts a smile on my face.

In Kentucky’s Republican gubernatorial primary next week, “although the No. 3 candidate claims his internal polls show former Rep. Anne Northup (R-Ky.) pulling ahead, it appears more likely that she can, at best, force a runoff against troubled incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R),” according to the Evans-Novak Political Report. “Even that appears unlikely at this point. One poll shows Fletcher 10 points ahead and well above the 40 percent threshold at which he avoids a runoff.”

Meanwhile, “on the Democratic side, former Lt. Gov. Steve Beshear is clearly the man to beat at this point. The most likely outcome of next Tuesday’s primary is a runoff between him and Bruce Lunsford. Beshear has benefited from the departure of state Treasurer Jonathan Miller (D) from the race — Miller endorsed Beshear as he exited. In debates, Beshear was everyone’s target, a sign that all of the campaigns recognize his late frontrunner status. Leaning Beshear.”

It looks like that, in the Buegrass State, our best-case scenario is about to come true. Let’s hope so.

My friend JanetTinMd, a Yearly Carnacki veteran, made an excellent point at Booman Tribune that the schedule was too ambitious to squeeze in the National Zoo and and Smithsonian Museum in one day. So see revised schedule below.

Schedule and details below.

The Zoo is pretty good-sized.  You could spend a whole day there, if you really wanted to walk around and see animals, stand in line for the pandas, and give the children a chance to beg for ice cream and goodies from the gift shop or chase each other in circles ’til they’re dizzy (and give the adults a chance to sit on benches and hang out and foment revolution).  🙂
It’s also easy to spend hours in just ONE of the Smithsonian buildings and then wonder where the time went….. 

Not to mention that it will take at least a good half-hour to get from the Zoo to the Mall via Metro. 

Remember our experiences from Harpers Ferry, and trying to keep a group of any size together hopping between two places that are not especially near each other — maybe it might be more relaxing to pick one or the other, either the zoo or one of the museums? (Maybe zoo if the weather is good, one of the museums if it’s raining?) It’s been a while since I went to the zoo, but I’m sure they have places to sit and eat, either picnic or purchase food there… 

Just thinking of a slower pace so we can actually talk and not be too stressed over watching the clock…. though I’ll certainly tag along with what other folks want to do.

The Mid-Atlantic meetup has always been on the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend. Probably more so than other meetups that tend to involve lots of alcohol and wild orgies (I wrote that for any freepers reading this), Yearly Carnacki is a laidback affair, with people bringing their children and with an emphasis on fun as well as politics.

Here’s the plan, and we’re trying to have two meetup times to accomodate those who just want to attend later in the day, a request in past years. Bring a brown bag lunch or pick up something for a picnic.

11 a.m. — Meet us at the visitor’s center of the National Zoo. More information about the zoo here. Zoo map here (PDF)

1 p.m. — Picnic at the zoo (or lunch at the snack bar for those inclined).

In the event of thunderstorms — severe rain and not just a sprinkle — the alternative location is the Smithsonian Castle near the information desk where we will then pick a museum to tour. Meet there at 11 a.m. in the event of severe rain.

For information on how to meet up with the group if you want to meet us later in the day, shoot me an email.

The Georgia netroots kicked it up a notch today in the GA-10 special election to replace deceased Rep. Charlie Norwood.  Follow me below the fold for the smack down.

Jump!

A few weeks ago, the front runner Jim Whitehead said this:

“Iraq has not been a big thing in our district,” said Whitehead, a former University of Georgia offensive lineman.

Well, the netroots fire back today with this from the street committee:

Also, consensus Democratic candidate James Marlow responded with an OpEd in the Athens Banner-Herald that is a must read (req. required).

This is a race we can win.  It is time for us to help make that happen.  You can support James Marlow by donating at the local blog Tondee’s Tavern ActBlue page here.

Like David, I don’t have a moose in this race, but hey, it’s an election–and if one of either Rep. Chaka Fattah or Rep. Bob Brady can pull off an upset win, we’d be dealing with yet another House vacancy and special election this year.  However, the odds of such a scenario happening appear to be long.  For more coverage, results, and analysis check out Young Philly Politics and the Philadelphia Inquirer.

UPDATE (David): It’s Nutter. I wonder if retaking the majority made the mayoralty less appealing to Fattah and Brady.

From the Prince of Darkness:

Rep. Kenny Hulshof, a rising Republican star in Congress, is on the short list to be University of Missouri president. That raises the possibility of Democrats picking up his House seat representing Missouri’s Little Dixie.

Hulshof won the once solidly Democratic seat in 1996 with 48 percent of the vote and was given a coveted membership on the House Ways and Means Committee. Hulshof has won recent elections with over 61 percent (even in 2006, when Democrats were winning elsewhere in Missouri and a state Senate seat in the district was lost by the Republicans).

Missouri Republican strategists worry that it would be difficult to retain the district in a special election if Hulshof takes the university post.

While Bush won this district by 55/42 and 59/41 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, it was represented by Democrat Harold Volkmer for 20 years from 1977-1997.  A special election with a strong local Democratic candidate could prove to be a rockin’ good time.  In fact, special elections in both this district and Arizona’s 1st district could give Tom Cole and the NRCC brain trust migraines this summer, should they happen.

Now, I have a question for the SSP brain trust: how well did Claire McCaskill perform in this district last November?

UPDATE (David): Man, I knew someone would come up with the answer! Major props to MORawn for crunching the numbers: in 2006, McCaskill got 46% in MO-09, to Talent’s 54%. That jives with pcd’s slightly rougher calculation. So, a tough row to hoe even for a top-shelf candidate, given that last year’s senate race was a high-water mark for us. But an open seat is always a game-changer.

Race Tracker: MO-09