It’s been a little while since we last took stock of all the potential ’08 vacancies in the House of Representatives, but much has changed since our last installment in this series back in April.
Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeates, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CA-52 | Hunter | R | R+9.3 | 60 | Running for President |
| CO-02 | Udall | D | D+8.1 | 58 | Running for Senate |
| IL-04 | Gutierrez | D | D+30.7 | 54 | Retiring |
| IL-18 | LaHood | R | R+5.5 | 62 | Retiring |
| ME-01 | Allen | D | D+6.2 | 63 | Running for Senate |
Since last time, we’ve added Democrat Tom Allen of Maine, whose official entry in Maine’s U.S. Senate race back in May allows us to mark his House resignation as definite. We’ve also added Ray LaHood, whose district tilts to the Republicans in Presidential contests. However, in 2006, Democrats picked up seven seats with PVIs redder than IL-18th’s (R+5.5). It should come as no surprise, then, that the DCCC has already begun its recruiting process in the district, and that state Sen. John Sullivan is seriously considering a bid.
| District | Incumbent | Party | PVI | Age | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | Young | R | R+14.3 | 75 | Under investigation |
| AL-02 | Everett | R | R+13.2 | 72 | Speculation/Rumors |
| AZ-01 | Renzi | R | R+2.2 | 50 | Under investigation |
| CA-04 | Doolittle | R | R+10.9 | 58 | Under investigation |
| CA-24 | Gallegly | R | R+4.8 | 64 | Botched a retirement attempt in 2006 |
| CA-25 | McKeon | R | R+7.1 | 70 | Speculation |
| CA-41 | Lewis | R | R+9.0 | 74 | Under investigation |
| DE-AL | Castle | R | D+6.5 | 69 | Health issues |
| FL-10 | Young | R | D+1.1 | 78 | Age issues/Speculation |
| IL-03 | Lipinski | D | D+10.3 | 42 | Primary challenge |
| IL-14 | Hastert | R | R+4.8 | 67 | Rumors |
| IL-16 | Manzullo | R | R+4.5 | 64 | Speculation |
| IN-07 | Carson | D | D+8.7 | 70 | Health issues |
| IA-03 | Boswell | D | D+1.4 | 74 | Health issues |
| IA-04 | Latham | R | D+0.4 | 60 | Possible Senate run |
| IA-05 | King | R | R+8.4 | 59 | Possible Senate run |
| LA-01 | Jindal | R | R+18.5 | 37 | Running for Governor |
| LA-02 | Jefferson | D | D+27.8 | 61 | Indicted |
| LA-06 | Baker | R | R+6.5 | 60 | Possible Senate run |
| MD-01 | Gilchrest | R | R+9.8 | 62 | Primary challenge |
| MD-04 | Wynn | D | D+29.8 | 57 | Primary challenge |
| MD-06 | Bartlett | R | R+12.8 | 82 | Age issues |
| MI-03 | Ehlers | R | R+9.0 | 74 | Speculation |
| NC-09 | Myrick | R | R+12.2 | 67 | Speculation |
| NY-23 | McHugh | R | R+0.2 | 60 | Speculation |
| OH-02 | Schmidt | R | R+13.1 | 56 | Primary challenge |
| OH-07 | Hobson | R | R+6.0 | 56 | Rumors |
| OH-16 | Regula | R | R+3.6 | 84 | Age issues/Speculation |
| TN-09 | Cohen | D | D+18.1 | 59 | Primary challenge |
| TX-04 | Hall | R | R+17.1 | 85 | Age issues |
| VA-01 | Davis, JoAnn | R | R+8.9 | 58 | Rumors/Health issues |
| VA-11 | Davis | R | R+0.6 | 59 | Possible Senate run |
| WY-AL | Cubin | R | R+19.4 | 61 | Speculation |
A bunch of new names this month: a recent Roll Call article named Reps. McHugh (NY-23) and Manzullo (IL-16) as possible retirements. Both of those districts–but McHugh’s R+0.2 district in particular–could see explosive races in an open seat scenario. I’ve also added several incumbents who could conceivably fall victim to primary challenges: Democrats Cohen (TN-09), Lipinski (IL-03), & Wynn (MD-04), and Republicans Gilchrest & Schmidt. Other crumb-bum Republican incumbents on shaky ground may face primaries of their own: Doolittle, Cubin, and Don Young are all ripe candidates who may be forced to smell the glove in a primary next year.
Any other retirement rumors floating through the tubes?