Weekly Open Thread: At the Movies

Seen any good movies lately?

UPDATE: So I went and saw “I Am Legend” last night. Not bad, but could have gone in a much more interesting direction. Visually an impressive film. Amusingly, one major scene takes place right on the block where I work (you see my office building as Will Smith drives by) – but sadly, I never saw the movie being filmed.

But as some folks in comments discuss, the real treat is the Batman trailer. I did not get to see the alleged six-minute version (grr!), but even the brief preview I saw made it look unbelievably freakin’ awesome. I cannot wait.


Notable User Diaries

  • Plf515 offers a primer on polling. In another diary, plf takes a look at one particular formal model used to predict House election outcomes.
  • They say you can’t tell the players without a scorecard. Fbihop has one for the fast-changing New Mexico political scene right here. Now, what did you want to tell the players?
  • The worst thing, the very worst thing that Chrissy Shays has ever, ever seen in all his years in Congress? The absolute worst? Why, a bunch of ballplayers testifying about steroids. Tparty has the full story about the embarrassingly faint-hearted Republican from CT-04.

NH-Sen: Has Billy Shaheen’s gaffe hurt his wife’s chances?

With all of this focus on Billy Shaheen’s comment on Obama’s alleged past drug use, there hasn’t been much discussion of the potential impact on the Senate race.

My view on this is that it will have a slight negative impact, perhaps more so if Obama wins

in New Hampshire.  Actually, it may appear that

Mark Penn (who should be fired) may have had a greater hand in this dustup.  But if this race gets close, this blunder could be a factor.

What do you think the impact will be?

IL-18: LaHood Blasts Schock

The GOP’s star recruit to replace retiring Rep. Ray LaHood, 26 year-old state Rep. Aaron Schock, sure isn’t living up to the hype.  First came his widely-panned “genius” idea of selling nuclear missiles to Taiwan in order to persuade China to go along with U.S. sanctions against Iran.  And now it looks like Schock has landed in hot water with LaHood himself, by using the congressman’s name in his campaign materials without permission:

LaHood said “there’s been at least seven references” to his name in Schock’s materials, and within the last week, he asked his district chief of staff, Tim Butler, who has also worked on LaHood’s campaigns, to call Schock’s campaign manager, Steven Shearer.

“He hasn’t called back,” LaHood said.

Oops!  

But wait, there’s more!  It seems that LaHood is none too pleased with Schock’s half-baked policy positions, either:

In his announcement address in late October, Schock said that if China didn’t work to persuade Iran away from development of nuclear weapons, “we will sell Pershing nuclear missiles to Taiwan for their defense. Non-proliferation will either be enforced universally or not at all – it is their choice. The Chinese will come around, I have no doubt.”

“My advice on that is that he should have done his homework, and I think it’s an outrageous statement to be making,” LaHood said, “particularly when you have as your No. 1 employer in the Peoria area Caterpillar (Inc.), that has developed many, many relationships with the Chinese, including establishing facilities in China.

“To make a statement that you’re going to arm one country with nuclear weapons to attack China I think shows a fairly high level of not doing your homework, and… immaturity and not using good political sense.”

With ideas like these, perhaps Schock would be better suited to run for the presidency of his local College Republican chapter?

MS-Sen-B: Mike Moore is Out

In an “Open letter to Mississippians,” former AG Mike Moore announced he's not interested in the US Senate:

I met with the leadership in the U.S. Senate while I was in town and talked with many of my friends, former attorneys general who serve their states well as U.S. Senators. The message was clear – the job of Senator is important and fulfilling; the polls show I could win; and I would have the money I needed to win the race. It all just came down to whether it was best for me and my family. The truth is I made my decision four years ago, and it has been a good one for my family and me. In the last four years I made every baseball game Kyle had, Tisha and I have had much more family time, and I have been fortunate in my law practice.

… 

The point is I am happy doing what I am doing, my family is happy, and I look forward to making a big difference in my state and nation. I have seriously considered the U.S. Senate vacancy as my friends urged me to do, but I have always known that what I am doing now is good enough for me. I appreciate all the encouragement to run.

Moore was likely Democrats' best shot at picking up retiring Sen. Trent Lott's seat, but former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove is still looking at the race and could make it competitive.

CT-04: The “Worst Behavior” in Congress in 20 Years? Really?

(Cross-posted at Daily Kos.)

Chris Shays (CT-04) has been in office for two long (too long) decades.

Over that time, he’s had the opportunity to question countless witnesses in Congressional hearings – questionable, criminal, devious, and laughable characters ranging from Brownie to Rummy to Wolfie.

The other day, he gave an interview to a major national website. And guess who he told them had exhibited the “worst behavior” he’s seen in Congress over all those years?

“Let me just say that they were deceitful… They weren’t cooperative. And they were arrogant. And they were like, ‘How dare you question us,’ kind of attitude. And I want you to know I don’t take offense at that. There are certain things as a member of Congress I don’t like. But personally, I was just stunned by it because I haven’t see worse behavior in anyone in my 20 years in public life in Congress.

No, not war profiteers. Or those responsible for getting us into the war. Or Bush Administration officials who refuse to answer any questions, and refuse to abide by Congressional subpoenas. (Or, say, a Congressman scuffling with a Capitol Hill police officer.)

No, none of those people exhibited worse behavior than… baseball players on steroids:

Christopher Shays describes himself as a casual baseball fan. He’s the kind of guy who tracks the Red Sox and Yankees hardball rivalry from a distance but would never be caught dissecting box scores in the morning’s Washington Post. Actually, after coming face-to-face with some of the leading characters — namely a handful of players, commissioner Bud Selig and union leader Don Fehr — during Congressional steroid hearings in 2005, the Connecticut lawmaker has a somewhat more jaded perspective on the game.

Rep. Shays smiles thinking back on the likes of Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro parading before the House Committee on Government Reform — the sense of entitlement they carried on their broad shoulders, the way they dismissed allegations of widespread steroid use in the game, even though committee members suspected otherwise….

“But personally, I was just stunned by it because I haven’t see worse behavior in anyone in my 20 years in public life in Congress.”

It’s astounding that any rational public official would consider Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro to be more worthy of contempt or criticism than, say, Eric Prince of Blackwater:

But there is actually a long list of Bush Administration officials and despicable characters who have come before Shays who have demonstrably exhibited much worse “behavior”… only to have Shays defend and praise them:

  • He told Condi Rice that he was “happy” that she “resisted the temptation” to actually answer questions from other committee members. (Dana Milbank described the end of the hearing: “[Shays] hurried to intercept Rice and gave her a hug. The secretary clasped his hand tenderly as she departed.”)
  • He told Donald Rumsfeld that he was “particularly grateful” that he “called [the Democrats’] bluff” by merely showing up to the hearing, and refused to press him to answer any tough questions.
  • He told GSA Administrator Lurita Doan, accused of politicizing her office, that he thought she was a “remarkable person” and stated he thought that “when an African American happens to be a Republican… she is treated differently” by his colleagues.

All of the above seemed to have done a perfect job as far as he was concerned. The right-wing/libertarian-leaning blog The Agitator describes Shays’ own behavior thusly:

Pardon my French, but are you fucking kidding me?  Shays has served with colleagues who’ve stolen from the public treasury, taken bribes, committed rape and sexual assault, and otherwise made complete asses of themselves.  And the worst behavior he’s seen in 20 years was when a bunch of baseball people were (correctly) indignant about Congress shoving its nose in internal baseball matters over which had no legitimate authority or jurisdiction?

Shorter Shays:

“Forget about billions of dollars wasted, the constitution shredded, and an executive out of control. It’s baseball players that we need to really worry about.”

So… Want to encourage real oversight, of real issues?

Throw some turkee here… and attend the Pub Quiz blograiser for Jim Himes this Saturday night in Bridgeport, CT either virtually or in person:

When: Saturday December 15 from 7 to 10PM ET

Where: Murphy’s Law, 239 Fairfield Ave., Bridgeport, CT

Online at: http://www.myleftnutmeg.com

Or join the Himes for Congress Facebook group here.

(Disclosure: I am proud to be consulting for Jim Himes.)

KY-Sen: Horne is In

It’s official: Andrew Horne, an Iraq vet and Louisville lawyer, is in the race to challenge Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.  MediaCzech has the scoop in the diaries, and Page One has Horne’s online announcement video.

The biggest hurdle that Horne now faces is showing that his campaign can raise some serious dollars in order to raise his statewide profile.  Horne’s only prior political experience in Kentucky was losing the 2006 KY-03 primary to John Yarmuth.  While no candidate could out-raise McConnell at this point, Horne would have to raise a significant amount to be competitive.

You can find Horne’s official website here.

KY-Sen: BREAKING- Andrew Horne announces his candidacy for U.S. Senate

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots)

The People-Powered Candidate of 2008. The Jim Webb of 2008. The man that will finally take out Senator Mitch McConnell.

I give you the next Senator from KY: Lt. Col. Andrew Horne.

For Immediate Release Contact: Susan Dixen

Thursday, December 13, 2007 502.759.0772

ANDREW HORNE ANNOUNCES CANDIDACY FOR U.S. SENATE IN KENTUCKY

“I’m running for U.S. Senate because it’s time for a change and because Senator Mitch McConnell is more than part of the problem. He is the problem,” said Andrew Horne

Louisville, KY – Lt. Colonel Andrew Horne (Ret.) launched his campaign today to take back the U. S. Senate seat for the people of Kentucky, now held by Mitch McConnell. Horne, while a Marine and Reservist, served tours of duty Desert Storm and recently in Iraq. Horne outlined his decision to run and what he plans to focus on as Senator in a video released on the internet this morning.

You can watch the video at AndrewHorne.org. The full text of it available on the site, as well.

“I’m running for U.S. Senate because it’s time for a change and because Senator Mitch McConnell is more than part of the problem. He IS the problem. It is time for Kentuckians to take our government and country back. We should not be told to take a backseat to the wealthy and powerful. It’s time to tackle the challenges facing our country instead of passing them off to our kids. It’s time for leaders who’ll take the right stand,” Horne says in the video.

“Mitch McConnell, the Republican Leader, symbolizes everything wrong with Washington. He bows to big business, practices the worst kind of politics, and doesn’t take a stand when faced with tough issues. Simply put: Mitch McConnell carries George Bush’s water on Iraq; I carried a rifle in Iraq” he added.

Horne noted that under the Bush-McConnell regime, Washington politicians have:

   *

     failed to fix our health care crisis;

   *

     sendt our jobs to China and Mexico;

   *

     failed to lead on immigration reform;

   *

     ran up a nine trillion dollar debt for our children, and

   *

     led our country into an ill-conceived and mismanaged war in Iraq.

Horne also noted yesterday that the Bush-McConnell obstructionism has continued to hinder progress, pointing to the latest example, the President’s veto of S-Chip fully supported by McConnell.

In the coming weeks and months, Horne will lay out his proposals to benefit the people of the commonwealth.

ABOUT ANDREW HORNE

Andrew Horne was born to working, middle-class parents, who for 30 years owned and operated a series of small businesses in Louisville, including Horne Cleaners and Clubfit International, a golf equipment and supply store. Just before graduating from Pleasure Ridge Park High School, he enlisted in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve and, soon after commencement, headed to Parris Island, S.C. for boot camp.  Horne worked his way through the University of Louisville, and in 1983 became the first in his family to graduate from college.  He later earned a degree from University of Louisville’s Brandeis School of Law, after fulfilling his six-year active duty contract with the Marines.

After tours overseas in both operations Desert Storm and Iraqi Freedom, Horne retired this year from the Marines as a lieutenant colonel.

Horne, his wife Stephanie, and their two children are members of Louisville’s Christ Church United Methodist, where he’s taught Sunday School. Horne serves as the spokesperson for the Brain Injury Association of Kentucky, leading the Wounded Warriors program which provides resources and relief to those suffering from this “signature” wound of the Iraq war. He also has been active with the Toys for Tots campaigns, the Marine Corps Coordinating Council of Kentucky, Boy Scouts of America, Junior Achievement and Boys’ State of Kentucky. He is a member of the Louisville Bar and American Bar associations. He previously served as a senior advisor to VoteVets.org, a pro-military group that supports Iraq and Afghanistan veterans running for office.

For more info on Andrew Horne, here’s my interview with him last month:

Lt. Col. Andrew Horne was kind enough to answer some questions that I had for him. Here is the transcript:

ME: You were registered independent before you decided to run for Congress against Anne Northup in 2006. Why had you remained Independent up until that point, and what factored in your decision to join the Democrats?

AH: Since enlisting as a Marine in 1979, I was registered as an Independent voter, believing that as a Marine my duty was to my country, my loyalty to the Constitution, and not a particular political party or president. But my political perspective changed after completing my last tour in Iraq.  I saw first hand how the Bush administration’s civilian leaders mismanaged the war and misled the American people. I saw our Republican leaders repeatedly ask working people and middle class families to bear the greatest sacrifice, while asking little of the wealthiest and most powerful. For these reasons, I changed my party registration from Independent to the Democratic Party.  As a candidate with my background, the discussion will be about ending the war responsibly and taking on the real challenges facing American families, such as health care, education and economic and retirement security.

ME: Many in the media are claiming that the “surge” strategy is working in Iraq. How accurate do you think such claims are?

AH: To determine if the escalation is “working” we must begin with what the goals were at the time it was initiated and our desired end state for Iraq.   If our end state is political reconciliation leading to stability it has not been a success.  If our end state is more of our troops in harms way protecting Iraqis then it has been a success.   However, few would argue that having more of our troops risking their lives every day to keep their fingers in the proverbial dike is a good thing or a desirable consequence, particularly when it does not appear there is any end in sight.  From these parameters it is clearly not working.  The question is how long do we cling to the hope that the Iraqi leadership will step up and do what needs to be done.  I for one believe the Iraqi leadership will allow us to carry their water for them as long as we are willing.  If we send a clear message that we will leave soon they will step up.  The current Basra situation is an example of what could happen if we leave- much to the chagrin of the Bush administration the British pulled out of Basra and defying all predictions violence dropped by 90%.

ME: What type of reaction do you get from fellow Marines that you served with when they hear how critical you are of President Bush’s policies in Iraq?

AH: Marines’ attitudes are not monolithic, and they are as diverse as the general population.   However, most of the Marines I speak to are supportive and tell me I am doing the right thing, particularly if they have seen combat in Iraq.

ME: What do you make of the saber rattling going on amongst the Bush administration when it comes to Iran?   Is this even a viable option at this moment, or is this just for show?

AH: The Iran situation is serious and should not be underestimated.  The administration seems to be eager to increase tensions and the saber rattling is just one example.  The rhetoric could be intended to pressure the Iranians to the table; however, Bush does not always act prudently and he could be considering some form of preemptive action.  From my perspective, there do not seem to be many viable options for the use of force given our current force structure and other commitments, but if history has taught us anything it is not to misjudge the extent of Bush’s hubris.

ME: Do you think that McConnell’s two filibusters on Sen. Jim Webb’s amendments to restore proper troop rotation between tours will hurt his support among the military in KY, particularly Western Kentucky?

AH: Absolutely.  Mitch McConnell prevented voting on the Webb Amendment that would have given our troops more time between tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The people that join our military are patriots who are willing to make enormous sacrifices for our country and our way of life.  Those sacrifices, however, are not being shared by the rest of our society and the same people are asked again and again to shoulder the burden.  This has not been lost on Veterans.  Mitch McConnell will be held accountable.  In this vein, I want to share a note that I read on the “Draft Horne” website:

   Dear Mr. Horne,

   My husband is currently serving his 2nd fifteen month deployment in Iraq. I am asking you to please run against Mitch McConnell in 2008. I wrote to Mr. McConnell asking him to request more MRAP's for our troops, and received no response. When I wrote him regarding Rush Limbaugh's comments about "phony soldiers", I received a letter defending Rush as a consistent supporter of our troops. This seems very lopsided to me, and I believe that someone like you could make a really big difference in Congress. Please run.

ME: Outside of policies dealing with Iraq and Veterans, what are your major criticisms with Mitch McConnell’s performance in the Senate?

AH: I strongly believe Senator Mitch McConnell is taking us down the wrong path.  McConnell has given President Bush, big business and corrupt lobbyists a blank check and rubber stamp for their selfish agenda. He is unwilling to address the healthcare crisis.  He votes against legislation that would control college costs for regular people.  He is blatantly loyal to corporate interests above the interests of working people and the middle class.  However, if I were to have one principal complaint it would be his gross partisanship.  In that last 7 years he has been one of the most strident enablers of the Bush fiasco and since the midterm elections he has been the most vocal, effective and smug obstructionist in the Senate.   By his conduct it is clear that he does not care what is good for Kentucky, the United States or the people; his primary concern is his own survival and the political success of the Republican Party.

ME: Many Democrats around the country are currently upset with their party, particularly for not following through on their promises when they won back Congress last fall. How valid do you think such complaints are, and do you share any of them?

AH: The message from the electorate during the last elections was stunning and the Democrats have not acted on that message.  So I do believe that much of the criticism is fair; however, the Republican’s have sufficient votes in the Senate to filibuster and Bush can still veto so the Democrats do not have an unfettered ability to enact legislation completely of their choosing.  The Democrats could have forced the issue in regard to funding of Iraq by not sending up alternative legislation absent affirmative statements by McConnell and Bush that there would be some compromise.

ME: During the nomination process of AG Mukasey, there was much discussion of what defines torture and what defines “enhanced interrogation techniques”. How familiar are you with waterboarding, and does this constitute torture?

AH: All politics aside, waterboarding is absolutely torture.  It is prohibited by the Army interrogation manual, which is used by all of the armed forces of the United States.  If Soldiers, Marines, Sailors or Airmen waterboard a prisoner they can and probably will be prosecuted under the Uniform Code of Military Justice for “Abuse of a Prisoner.”  End of discussion.

Let me say that I do not know if the politicization of words is a new phenomenon but it is new to me.  When I was in Iraq during a command briefing to Ambassador Negroponte we were all amused to learn from the Ambassador that we were not supposed to use the words “insurgent[s]” or “insurgency,” apparently the approved words were “terrorist[s]” and “terrorism.” [In his defense he seemed as amused as the rest of us.]  When I came home I was surprised and amused when I was questioned about whether the attack into Iraq was an “invasion” or “liberation.”  [I wasn’t aware there was any real question about that.]  The games being played by Bush, et al would almost make me laugh if they weren’t so disturbing.

ME: Many candidates in the Republican Presidential debates have boasted about “doubling Gitmo”, channeling “Jack Bauer”, and saying the most important civil liberty is “staying alive”. What are your thoughts on this kind of talk?

AH: I am unsure how a rational person can comment on those types of attitudes.  Torture and detention centers are not things that anyone should boast about.  We must not forget that moral standards are vital to success in warfare and school yard attitudes about strength and toughness have no place in serious debate.  I wrote an Op Ed for the CJ right before the 2006 midterms entitled “Tough Is Not Enough”, which addresses these issues in more detail.  (ME: full transcript here)

LA-Sen: New Poll Gives Landrieu a Slight Edge

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (registered voters):

Mary Landrieu (D-inc.): 46%

John Kennedy (R): 42%

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Those numbers don’t quite jive with Kennedy’s internal polling that he published late last month, which showed him leading Landrieu by a 45%-38% margin.  We can’t yet tell for sure which poll is the outlier, but at this point, I’m inclined to trust SUSA over Kennedy’s Zogby poll.

Whatever the case, this one’s gonna be tough.

UPDATE: The full poll is available here.

UPDATE #2: Hey, guess what?  Kennedy finally took a bold leap into the 21st Century and removed his official campaign site from Geocities.  His next task?  Remove all those “Under Construction” and dancing Calvin & Hobbes GIF files from his current site.

Republican Congressional Fundraising Sucks — It’s Great To Be A Democrat

The National Republican Congressional Committee was technically in the red, even before they spent over $400,000 (about 15% of their cash on hand) to help Bob Latta win a special election in Ohio — in a district that Bush carried by a whopping 22% in 2004.  John Boehner, House Minority Leader — the one who thinks American lives are a "small price" to pay for victory in Iraq — explains the money woes of Congressional Republicans thusly:

“Now the money sucks for two reasons,” Boehner said in a Politico interview. “People are mad at the president; they are mad at the party. And then [there is] this whole immigration fight. People just turned off the spigot.”

Boehner is bringing in image consultants and trying to "re-brand" the Republican party.  It's great to see the other guys wasting money (that they don't have) on  image consultants and flimsy attempts to re-brand or re-create their party.  Note: Boehner didn't mention actual policy changes, just a PR campaign.

Here in Alabama, word is out that George Wallace, Jr. is sniffing around the 2nd Congressional District race.  He would join Republicans Jay Love, Greg Wren, Harri Anne Smith and  David Grimes who are already in the AL-02 raceCome on in George, the water is fine!  The more the merrier, especially since Republican fundraising "sucks."  Y'all go ahead and spend a lot of money in an expensive primary — the NRCC will be there to bail you out next October.  Not!

Of the 202 Republican held seats in Congress, about 90 are districts with a partisan voting index (PVI) or R+10 (like OH-05) or greater.  If the NRCC has to spend $400K per race to hold the other 112 Republican held districts that are as, or less, Republican than OH-05, it will need over $45 million.  That's just to hold the current Republican minority — in a cycle where Republican fundraising "sucks" — starting from a negative $1 million balance only 10 1/2 months before the general election.

This is a good time to be a Democrat — even in Alabama. 

Cross-posted from Left in Alabama.