From Fox News:
Mississippi Republican Trent Lott resigned from the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, leaving a post he has held since 1988, spokesman Lee Youngblood said.
Time to ride off into the sunset, rake in some lobbyist scratch, and rebuild that porch.
So who will Haley appoint in his place? Rep. Wicker? Pickering? Treasurer Tate Reeves? And will state AG Jim Hood succeed in his fight to have a special election within 100 days?
Here’s a nice slice of news from Texas tonight: Dems have picked up a Republican open seat in the Texas state legislature, with Democrat Dan Barrett winning with 52% of the vote in a 61% GOP-performing district in Fort Worth. The Republican margin of control in the state House is now 79-71.
Burnt Orange Report has more. Congratulations to Texas Dems for another well-earned victory!
It looks like a court battle over the date for the special election to replace retiring Sen. Trent Lott could very well be in the cards. As we know, Gov. Haley Barbour’s bizarre reading of Mississippi’s electoral law gives him the power to set the special election in November. This would give Barbour’s appointed candidate some crucial time to build up incumbency and make the Democratic candidate run against the headwind of the Presidential election turnout in a very red state.
The Mississippi Democratic Party is fighting the opinion, and they have an ally in a good place: state AG Jim Hood. Hood’s office has just issued an opinion saying that Barbour must set a special election within 100 days of Lott’s retirement (provided he retired before the new year, as planned):
A special election must be held within 100 days after U.S. Trent Lott makes his resignation official, according to a state Attorney General’s opinion issued Monday. […]
Gov. Haley Barbour has scheduled a Nov. 4 special election for voters to decide who would take Lott’s seat permanently. Barbour said he would appoint an interim senator in the meantime.
Secretary of State Eric Clark issued a statement agreeing with Barbour’s course of action, but the Mississippi Democratic Party challenged the election’s timing.
On Monday, assistant Attorney General Reese Partridge issued an opinion that agreed with the party.
The Mississippi Code is “unambiguous,” Partridge wrote. “If the effective date is after the 2007 general election, but before Jan. 1, 2008, the Governor must, within 10 days of receiving notice of the vacancy, issue his proclamation setting the election within 90 days from when the proclamation is issued.”
A personal letter from Attorney General Jim Hood to Barbour attached to the opinion said if no agreement could be reached on the interpretation of the law, a “resolution from the courts” may be the next option.
Good. If Hood can pull this off, the race might become more attractive for some of the state’s Democrats.
Stay tuned.
there’s been a slew of news in this race, for everybody running. rep. lipinski got the afl-cio endorsement [PDF] and the afscme endorsement. this isn’t a surprise given the association of speaker madigan with lipinski, and madigan’s closeness with the unions. lipinski also got the endorsement of pipefitters local 597.
mark pera got the endorsement of NARAL/Pro-Choice America as well as the endorsement of forrest claypool, who won almost 70 percent of the vote in four il-03 townships during the 2006 primary. pera was also endorsed by reformers ald. manny flores, ald. brendan reilly, ald. scott waguespack, st. sen. dan kotowski, st. rep. john fritchey, and mwrd commissioner debra shore.
jerry bennett has announced the endorsements of 66 local mayors; the southwest sider blogger lists them all. the one that is missing is the one undoubtedly supporting lipinski.
jim capparelli has no new endorsements since the last post. capparelli’s website has an audio component to it’s front page, which may have been there before (i often mute sound on my computer).
the politico called lipinski one of the five most vulnerable in 2008 primary challenges:
Lipinski has never been able to win over a large majority of Democrats in his Chicago-based district since he was appointed as the nominee after his father’s abrupt resignation in 2004. His relatively conservative voting record within the Democratic caucus has prompted attorney Mark Pera to mount a well-funded and well-organized challenge.
meanwhile, the national journal has taken notice of kos’ efforts to lick lil lip.
the local newspapers are giving the race attention. clout street, the chicago tribune blog covered the endorsements that pera and bennett picked up. archpundit also covered pera’s endorsement by local reformers. ray hanania, of the southwest news-herald wrote this column on the race:
In the end, the Democratic Primary election comes down to an organization effort. And there, Lipinski has the edge.
In the primary battle two years ago against John Kelly and John Sullivan, Lipinski won by a landslide, with 56 percent of the city’s 46,000 votes and 53 percent of the suburb’s 36,000 votes.
Work the numbers. Lipinski was solid in several heavy voting wards in Chicago, trailing Kelly by 400 votes in the 19th Ward, where Irish voters vote for the Irish above all else.
Lipinski’s vote margin in the suburbs were strong across the suburban areas of the district. He did better, though, in the city, mainly because he won huge voter support in the district’s other key wards, the 23rd, 13th and 11th.
Can Lipinski lose? Maybe, if the powers that be who represent voters in the 3rd District turn their backs on him and on his father, who spent years helping all those communities and leaders.
read the whole thing, which reflects the current conventional wisdom about the race.
jerry bennett has been getting increasing coverage. the daily southtown covered bennett’s presentation before a gage park high school class:
While not a household name, Bennett is the best-known of Lipinski’s opponents. More than 20 area mayors recently endorsed his candidacy. As Palos Hills’ part-time, $28,000-a-year mayor – a post he has held for 27 years – and as a regional leader on several planning boards, Bennett touts his governmental experience as the characteristic that sets him apart from his opponents.
ray hanania (as well as archpundit) covered bennett’s s-chip announcement. the reporter online covered a rally, where bennett says lipinski “has not done the job” and is a “Republican in Democratic cloth.” a radio interview with bennett can he heard here.
mark pera probably scores the best in the last couple of weeks, since his netroots following has been active in keeping his story alive. one of them posted this story from chicago’s fox news on youtube. local tribune papers covered pera’s endorsements by citizen action/illinois, claypool and naral. the blogosphere has been on fire for pera this month, starting with an in these times article, to archpundit’s coverage of pera youtube offerings, openleft’s coverage of candidate statements to dailykos writeups here and here. pera is also getting coverage in the capitol hill outlets, the hill and roll call. it’s no surprise, then, that aaron krager argues that pera is winning the media war.
the capitol fax blog had a lively discussion about the turmoil of the lipinski campaign, with rich miller, as usual, providing some common sense.
not so new, but at least new to his website, dan lipinski offers up an old brochure [PDF]. interestingly, i think lipinski’s new slogan (“representation you have come to expect!”) is probably more accurate than his old one (“leadership. commitment. experience.”).
capparelli has a new, printable issues page. he has a welcome video up, as well.
the bennett campaign got back to me shortly after posting the first post, and i gave them the opportunity to answer those questions. their campaign headquarters is located at 7229 W. 103rd St, Palos Hills, IL, 60465. (Phone: 708-907-5063), which is open everyday. they feel like their grassroots support is strong:
we have more than 70 Mayors from all over the region backing Jerry’s campaign. Mayors are at the absolute grassroots level, ensuring the quality of life in their towns and communities is addressed and providing those essential services from water to libraries to parks and rec. Mayor Bennett is also a life-long South Sider and his extensive network of family (he’s one of 13 brothers and sisters), relatives, friends, colleagues and civic contacts are doing everything from making phone calls to hosting coffees to telling their own friends and neighbors to collecting small-dollar donations for the campaign. Our Southside Swarm is also gearing up for a strong field effort in these weeks leading up to the Feb 5th Election Day.
they report they have “lots of “at home” projects – calling, netroots networking, etc – for at web-savvy folks!” email alex [alex@jerrybennettforcongress.com] or call 708-907-5063, if you are interested.
pera put up a new cable ad, the youtube version is here. the campaign also sent out two direct mail pieces, available on the website. the “end this war” mailer is justified by a “fact sheet for this mailing.” [PDF]. the campaign also released a third video message from the campaign to voters. that’s using your web.
since the last post, the pera campaign has been joined by two new employees, deputy fund-raiser trevor montgomery, who is an iraq war veteran, and community outreach and field organizer, maura kelly. a video of montgomery is up on youtube here.
if the first posts in this series was designed to lay a foundation, this next group will be focused on looking at the fundamentals in this race. like blocking and tackling decide football games, the fundamentals decide elections. there are five fundamentals that are thought to be decisive in the outcome of elections:
1. the candidates
2. money
3. the environment (deciding factors that campaigns can’t change)
4. the climate (deciding factors that campaigns can influence)
5. their organizations
probably the biggest deciding factor right now in this race is the political environment. while the incumbent has about a third of those polled who support his re-election, this is still a machine district. and it’s not just any machine district, but the core of the chicago political machine. it will take more than half a million dollars to be competitive with the machine candidate in this district. there is such a strong undercurrent in the last two weeks that any campaign that hopes to be competitive will need to buttress itself and its voter base from the effect.
add to this the fact that the primary is february 5th. the machine is hoping that the weather is nasty — typically, this is called precinct captain’s weather, because some believe that only those who benefit directly from the chicago system will come out in such weather.
the bennett campaign seems to expect to import some of their own lil machines into the district for his benefit. many of the towns and villages who’s mayors have endorsed bennett have non-partisan elections. that doesn’t mean they don’t have parties — or machines — just that they are not known by the democratic or republican label. we cannot know how committed these mayors are to bennett’s election, but if they are, then machine or precinct captain’s weather may not tilt the campaign one particular way. however, bennett can only benefit from importing lil machines if he’s got his support id’ed by the time they come in (for the most part).
the final environmental factor that will strongly influence this race is the obama effect. barack obama drives turnout in illinois. his presence on the ballot in the primary of 2008 will have the same effect as his presence on the ballot in the primary of 2004 — it will boost turnout significantly. and it will boost turnout beyond the normal surge turnout expected in a presidential year. turnout will be super-surged, and all those extra voters are not likely to go to the machine. of course, the good precinct captains know this, and they may have a plan to respond.
in many ways, as candidates the jury is still out for the non-incumbents. lipinski is, at best, a D candidate. that’s a D for below average, not democrat. mark pera has shown promise, but i don’t think he’s shined (yet) like dan kotowski or deb shore did in 2006. his campaign says:
By any objective measure, Mark Pera is the viable challenger to Congressman Dan Lipinski. With less than 50 days to the election, Mark, myself and our campaign staff have been up and running full-time and over-time for nearly five months out of our offices here in Countryside. We have been up on cable TV since the end of October with two TV ads (“It’s Time” and “Pain at the Pump”). We have four top-notch direct mail pieces out the door and in the hands of Democratic voters. The video messages that we have posted online at our Web site and on YouTube are watched by thousands of viewers. We’ve set the framework for this campaign and, perhaps most importantly, we are directing the new people and resources that have joined us to increase the pace of the campaign. For example, we recently opened a second field office in the city.
Mark has the talent and vision to provide real leadership for residents of the 3rd district. Since 2001, he has served as President of the Lyons Township High School Board of Education, which has an attendance area of 80,000 residents. The district is one of the top school districts in the state. As director of the Cook County State’s Attorney’s Office’s Environment and Energy Division, he and his team was responsible for prosecuting major industrial polluters and well-known utility companies that were working against the public interest. It’s these civic and law and order credentials that have helped him earn the trust and support of some of the leading reformers in Cook County and the state.
jerry bennett is still too new to the race. he’s played an insider’s game, to the extent he can, and hasn’t really had the level of public appearances one expects from an a-level candidate. the bennett campaign tells us that the local mayoral network is significant in the southside and southwest side. they will leverage that as much as they can. bennett has been, by all accounts, an effective mayor who has organized his fellow mayors to gain influence in the state. but bennett’s late entry is problematic. bennett’s name recognition outside his town is limited. in pera’s poll, capparelli had better name recognition than bennett. pera’s name recognition was higher than either of them — due to his earlier start.
jim capparelli has been almost invisible outside his base. so who knows?
the political climate favors the reformers. that’s why there’s so many looking to claim that label in the race. lil lip is vulnerable, and pera’s campaign has specifically been designed to take advantage of that:
We’re hearing from voters that they have decided to vote for Mark Pera on Feb. 5. The reason they most often cite is that our campaign is on the right side of the issues that the voters care about deeply, whether it’s the Iraq war, energy and the environment, choice, personal privacy, stem cell research or health care. They think our current Congressman’s leadership on these issues is inadequate, the don’t like how Lipinski was put in office and voters want change. They know Mark can bring about that change.
the campaign that can seize the reformer label in this race seizes the advantage. that’s why the pera campaign (and its allies) have worked so hard to grab the reformer label and present this race as one between pera and lipinski. this rankles the campaigns of the other two candidates, each of which brings their own advantages to the race.
actblue offers one way to tract money. at this date, actblue shows:
Jerry Bennett
Contributors: 22
Amount: $8,140
Jim Capparelli
Contributors: 5
Amount: $300
Daniel Lipinski
Mark Pera
Contributors: 1,859
Amount: $118,066
the bennett campaign tells me that they have raised $100,000 in the first 30 days of his campaign. yet even if they continue this pace, they still don’t get to $500,000 (which rich miller reminds us is the “price” of competitive state legislator races in illinois — there are three state senate districts in il-03). there’s a reason why we advise campaigns to start early. pera may have outraised lipinski in the last quarter, but lipinski ended it with more cash on hand. i’d call that a tie.
it’s a little harder to compare organizations. the word seems to be that lipinski’s organization is crumbling. demoralized, even. there are rumblings that lipinski senior has seized control of his son’s “organization” in order to right the ship. i wonder if it matters. the lipinski name isn’t what it used to be. madigan will be the machinehead who decides where the resources go. if the speaker wants to keep this seat, and he’s willing to sacrifice some other races he’s interested in, he will. but we won’t know until the last two weeks. the afl-cio and afscme endorsements could be vital to mobilizing behind lipinski — if they get into the middle of it.
there’s very little question that the pera campaign has the best organization at this moment. they’ve been aggressive about raising money, and this has allowed them to go on the air and in the mail. they’ve been outrageously successful at gaining earned media. they have opened a second field office, and plan “an amazing Get Out The Vote (GOTV) strategy and we’re fortunate to have the support of the volunteers and constituent groups we need to move from planning to action in the upcoming weeks.”
i wouldn’t underestimate the bennett organization. they have put together a “kick-ass chicago team to run bennett’s campaign.” he needs it. palos hills is a small town in the district, and the 3,000 votes he’s gotten there in the past isn’t close to what is needed to be competitive. in 2006, there were more than 81,000 votes cast in this primary. no one would be surprised if it went over a hundred thousand in february. the real question is, where will the extra votes come from? if they come out of the city, and the 19th ward holds its voters for lipinski, the incumbent wins.
numerous calls and emails to the capparelli campaign were not returned for this report…
There is no longer ANY doubt that Jackie Speier is about to run for Congress against Tom Lantos. The San Francisco Chronicle is reporting that former State Senator Jackie Speier is staffing up.
Demo derby: Former state Sen. Jackie Speier has just signed Mayor Gavin Newsom’s onetime campaign manager Alex Tourk to help launch her still-unofficial campaign to unseat Peninsula Congressman Tom Lantos in next June’s Democratic primary.
“She hasn’t declared yet, but she asked me to join her team – and I’m honored to be part of it,” Tourk said Friday. “And I’m confident when people are reminded of her record and talk to her one-on-one in house meetings, there will be no doubt her time is now.”
Some of you from the Bay Area may remember that Tourk is the now ex-husband of Ruby Rippey-Tourk with whom Newsom had an affair. You may also that Tourk is a very talented, well-connected operative who is highly thought of by everyone in the City’s political commnity. To score this guy is a huge plus in Speier’s favor. It also means that she will be playing to win. However, I do not think he is familiar with the blogging commnuity. We’ll see what happens, but expect fireworks this Spring and Summer.
Evidence of Tom Davis’ impending retirement continues to mount. Red Virginia is reporting that Davis’ campaign manager will soon be on his way out.
Tom’s campaign manager Nick Meads is rumored to be leaving the campaign and returning to his home state of Pennsylvania. This is a HUGE LOSS on top of Foreman and the 2 Chris’s. Who is next, Dave Thomas???
I think it’s a matter of when Davis has his next job lined up before he formally announces the obvious.
Last week it was Texas, this week Ohio.
Candidate filing in Ohio closes in less than a month – 4th January – and we still don’t have confirmed candidates in a number of Congressional House districts!
Once again go and take a look at the
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
Below the fold for details………….
Ohio has 18 Congressional House districts. 7 are held by Democrats who are all at this stage running again as follows: (Note that I have included the Cook PVI scores for each district also.)
OH-06 – D+0,
OH-09 – D+9,
OH-10 – D+6,
OH-11 – D+33,
OH-13 – D+6,
OH-17 – D+14,
OH-18 – R+6,
That leaves 11 Republican held districts.
There are confirmed challengers in 7 of those 11 districts:
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
That leaves four districts with no confirmed candidate
And here they are:
OH-03 – R+3,
Charles Sanders, Jane Mitakides and Dave Esrati are collecting signatures but they are not yet confirmed.
OH-04 – R+14,
Not a peep no candidate here.
OH-05 – R+10,
Is Robin Weirauch running again?
OH-08 – R+12,
Not a peep no candidate here.
Less than a month to go and we need 4 candidates – do you know anyone that could run?
Two Republican members of Congress apparently wed over the weekend. Mary Bono, the widow of Sonny Bono and his successor in Congress wed Connie Mack III, a Florida Republican. Bono represents CA-45 (R+3) one of the weaker Republican House districts in California. Mack represents FL-14, one of the more clearly Republican districts in the Sunshine State.
The wedding was clearly reminiscent of the 1994 nuptials of two NY Republican House members: Susan Molinari and Bill Paxon. Molinari, despite being part of Republican House leadership, resigned her seat just three years later. Republican Senator Nancy Landon Kassebaum married Howard Baker in 1996 and did not seek re-election.
The difficulties of maintaining three households (one in the DC area plus one in each home district) would tend to nudge at least one of the partners to a somewhat speedy retirement.
Democrats would have a much better chance of winning Bono’s district than winning Mack’s.
Already this session, JoAnn Davis of Virginia died and was replaced in a special election by a male Republican and three Republican women in the House (Deb Pryce, Barbara Cubin, and Heather Wilson) have announced their retirement. Wilson is running for a Senate seat.
Should Bono retire, California would have no Republican women in the Housae (out of 19 seats). About half of California’s House Democrats, including Speaker nancy Pelosi, are women as are both of its two US Senators.
All indications are that Tom Davis will NOT seek reelection in the VA-11, according to the Republican blog Red Virginia.
Breaking… Tom Davis is closing down his campaign office. This is coming after he already has 2 primary opponents – so why is he closing down his office? Reports are that he is donating all of his office equipment to Fairfax County Republican Committee and he is leaving the campaign office by the end of the year. This means TOM DAVIS WILL NOT BE SEEKING RE-ELECTION!!!!
More coming….
UPDATE: On top of Dave Foreman’s departure, Christian Deschauar and Chris Espinoza have also left the Davis team. Both Chris’s and Dave were the Annandale District Office staff. This continues to add onto the long list of reasons that Tom Davis is RETIRING.
DEVELOPING… (More to come from Tom Davis Annual Christmas Party)
UPDATE 2: After attending Tom’s Christmas party there is much to report… Tom was not campaigning. In fact, several guests commented to me that it was somber. Tom and Jeannemarie did not work the crowd! The tone of the event screamed DEFEAT. Attendance was very low, perhaps because he forgot to invite people- incredibly, TOM FAILED TO INVITE THE BRADDOCK AND SULLY DISTRICT REPUBLICAN COMMITTEES. .
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW MORNING!!!
Mark this down as a pickup. Welcome back, Congresswoman Byrne.
If you – or your friends or family – give to Mark Pera on my Mark Pera fundraiser page by next Saturday, I’ll kick in a matching donation of my own. Check it out.
(I’ve done this kind of matching pledge before (including earlier this month for Mark Pera) so take that as assurance that my pledge is for real).
The details:
Mark Pera is a great candidate, he’s got endorsements from Chicago’s reformers, and he’s trying to throw out a Chicago-machine, Bush Dog Democrat named Dan Lipinski.
I’ve supported Mark Pera with contributions in the past, but won’t any more….. unless you (or your friends and family) do.
I’m through with donating money to candidates without leveraging it against other folks donations. So, I simply won’t be donating another dime to Mark if I can’t get you and others to join with me.
Of course, I am doing this to get you to donate if you haven’t already. But more importantly, I want you to approach your off-line friends and family who’ve never once been asked to donate to Mark Pera or Dan Lipinski, but who you know would want to donate to help a progressive, reform-minded, pro-choice Democrat replace a Bush Dog, “pro-life” Democrat in a super-safe Democratic district that will never elect a Republican.
We in the left blogosphere have seen a kazillion ‘asks’ for Mark Pera – we all have been pretty thoroughly canvassed. More “roots-spreading” action on all of our parts can make $15 or $25 donations turn into a really impressive amount by widening the reach of the campaign. All it takes to do that is a donation on your part (which you may have done) and a quick email of your own to select contacts asking them to do the same.
I will be kicking in a matching donation for ones received on my ActBlue page for Mark through next Saturday night (Dec 22) — and when I match them you’ll know it because you see my donation here. This isn’t a match program like you see at the DCCC or other Democratic organizations — unlike those, you’ll literally be able to see when I’ve put down my money for Mark – and I’d love it if you help tap me out for Mark. Check out the site for details.
Chances are, you’ve donated to Mark if you’re reading this diary. (If not, please do). But I hope this diary will encourage you to approach a handful of contacts you know who believe in the importance of electing great progressives like Mark but who don’t know about him yet. The case should be an easy sell all by itself (this recent post makes a damn good case that Pera’s got a campaign that can win), but just to give you another hook, I’m adding on the incentive that they can make their donation bigger because I will match it – as well as the sense of urgency for them to act now, since my offer expires on December 22.
Please give and ask others to give!