IL-03 Roundup #4

the most important news at this point is that early voting has begun.  for those who live in illinois’ 3rd congressional district, the ballot positions are:

Mark N. Pera   #9

Jim Capparelli #10

Daniel William Lipinski #11

Jerry Bennett #12

all the democrats in this race have filed their voter guide questions.  lipinski’s response states “I have also been a leader in the battle to responsibly bring our troops home from Iraq.”  pera’s response argues that “More than anything else, voters are tired of politicians in Washington D.C. who are beholden to special interests and they are fed up with the nepotism and corruption that we see from the Lipinskis and the Strogers of Cook County.”  bennett’s response observes:

During those 27 years [as mayor], I’ve worked with my fellow mayors and other public officials to transform the town and our region. We’ve come up with innovative solutions for building infrastructure, improving law enforcement and securing a safer environment.

capparelli says: “I’m determined to reignite the patriotism we all felt in the months following the attacks of 2001.”

it’s also endorsement season for the local newspapers.  the chicago tribune endorsed lipinski.  given that he didn’t even show up for the trib’s endorsement session, it’s hard to see why.  one might assume it has something to do with it’s closeness to the chicago machine.  the suntimes has yet to endorse in this race, even though early voting has begun.  the local pioneer paper endorsed mark pera as “the best choice to unseat incumbent Daniel Lipinski.”

lipinski got raves for one of his earmarks.  otoh, carol marin returns to lipinski’s ethics issues:

It was 3½ years ago that Bill ran and won in the spring primary, and only that summer when he felt the sudden urge to retire. Ward committeemen friends, familiar dynastic names like Daley, Hynes and Madigan, quickly marshaled the best man for the job.

Boom, there came Dan Lipinski, a college political science professor who had been working out of state for years, anointed to replace his dad on the November Democratic ballot. The opponent on the Republican side, a 25-year-old bar owner from Cicero, posed no threat. He was a plant previously recruited by the Lipinski forces to guarantee the general election was a gentle ride for Dan. And indeed it was.

the western springs doings talks about the race here.  the southwest news herald covered a recent debate where lipinski showed up late.  and the nearwest gazette had a story on several blogs’ support for mark pera.

lipinski has two new union endorsements: the Chicago Regional Council of Carpenters and Sprinkler Fitters Local 281.  pera has been racking up other endorsements: Blue America, Blue Majority, Democratic Leadership for the 21st Century, Illinois Planned Parenthood Council, Oak Park DFA, Planned Parenthood Action Fund and United Citizens for a Better America.

carl nyberg wrote a great writeup of the league of women voters debate, including a summary of the positions taken at the debate.  yoda noted that rahm emanual’s leadership pac contributed $2,500 to lipinski’s re-election.

vasyl markus, the communications director from the bennett campaign, observes:

The biggest news is that Dan Lipinski is finally emerging from his bunker.  There have been joint appearances with all four candidates at the Sun Times editorial board, the League of Women Voters debate, and at an event in Berwyn.

Jerry emphasized his experience and leadership at these events.  He is the only candidate in the race with a track record of balancing budgets, keeping property taxes low, doubling the size of the police force, and working with the region’s local officials to build infrastructure and plan for the future.  At both the League of Women Voters and the Berwyn event, audience members came up to Jerry to let him know that they support him.

Lipinski got grilled about his connections with his father by Carol Marin at the ed board meeting.  Marin wrote a column criticizing Lipinski’s responses.  Lipinski also tried to claim credit for funding certain transportation projects in the districts, but Jerry pointed out that each of those projects had been initiated by Bill Lipinski, and that Dan Lipinski has not initiated any new infrastructure capital projects for the region.

miss laura, wegerje and rob nesvacil covered the trib’s endorsement of lipinski while markos and michael in chicago covered the doings’ endorsement of pera.  lots of blogs picked up the carol marin editorial.  illinois informant has a post, as does reading on walden.  miss laura at dailykos got in on the act.  charlotte lynn continues the long line of questions about lipinski’s ethical problems; which was picked up by others.

aaron krager continues to cover this race.  ray hanania interviewed pera on his radio show.  yoda and frank swap canvassing tales.  the pera campaign has put up a new video on health care, which also got covered by miss laura.

the biggest thing in the blogs from pera’s perspective is the blog-raisers going on.  kos started it by challenging the blogs to raise money for him.  miss laura picks up the banner and runs with it.  kbal11 writes about his thank you phone call from mark pera while mark pera thanks the blogs.  others got involved, locally as well as not-so-local, including leftword, mydd (direct democracy) america blog and wurfwhile.  there are probably others i missed (though not intentionally).

the pera campaign notes:

We are in the midst of a fundraising effort sponsored by a number of national Netroots and progressive Democratic leaders. The goal of this fundraising drive – which is called “5,000 for Pera” – is to boost our total number of online contributors on ActBlue to 5,000. Since it began on Jan. 14, we have raised more than $40,000.

second life is also holding an online fundraiser for pera.

the bennett mailer i mentioned last roundup is up on their site (downloaded as a pdf).  they have a second mailer is filling mail boxes this week.  lipinski has sent out “just three mail pieces.”  the pera campaign has their “Tired of being squeezed?” mailer up as well as their current walk piece (which is also available in spanish).  you can expect everyone’s mail to start hitting now.

the pera campaign announced:

We have opened a third campaign office – which we’re calling our suburban office – at 9734 S. Roberts Road in Palos Hills. It is staffed by deputy field director Ahlam Jbaba, an Arabic speaker. Ahlam is responsible for coordinating our Muslim and Arab American outreach. Our other offices are located at 7061 Willow Springs Road, Countryside (Pera for Congress Headquarters), and 6158 S. Pulaski, Chicago (Chicago office).

the bennett campaign reports that they have initiated a series of robocalls in the district.  it observes:

The Bennett campaign’s message from now until election day is twofold: First, Dan Lipinski has consistently supported George W Bush and conservative Republicans on issues such as abortion rights, stem cell research, the war in Iraq, and health care reform.  Second, of all the candidates in the race, Jerry has the most experience dealing with the bread and butter issues that the next Congressman from the 3rd District will face.

the pera campaign’s message is:

Dan Lipinski has voted consistently with President Bush and the Republicans on the issues that matter most to Democrats. He has yet to acknowledge, much less remedy, the ethical challenges plaguing his re-election bid. People in the 3rd District are tired of politics as usual, nepotism and cronyism. If you want real change in Chicago, Cook County and Washington D.C., you should vote for Mark Pera, a real mainstream Democratic reformer.

they feel like this message is resonating with voters:

Mark, our campaign staff and scores of volunteers have called through literally hundreds of precincts throughout the the 3rd District and Democrats are telling us that they want change and that they are going to vote for Mark Pera when they go to the polls on Feb. 5.

Since Jan. 14, the start of early voting in Chicago and Cook County, voters on the phones and in person have said that they already have voted for Mark.

they still are looking for volunteer help:

We want you to be part of our campaign.

Your choice is simple: Mark is a principled Democrat and he feels strongly about the issues that voters care about most – the Iraq war, energy and the environment, health care, embryonic stem cell research, choice and privacy. Dan Lipinski votes with President Bush and the Republicans on each and every one of these issues.

As of Monday, we are just 15 days out from Feb. 5. We are continuing to gain momentum and we need you to help put us over the top by walking precincts, making phone calls, putting up yard signs and spreading the word about our campaign.

To get involved, call our field director, Jacob Dusseau, at (708) 579-2834.

the bennett campaign has two fundraisers in the next two days, including one with democratic pollster, celinda lake.

financial disclosure reports are still not available, but since the last roundup, the pera campaign has raised another $41,623 across actblue, the bennett campaign has raised another $2,175 (and doubled their number of online contributors) and the capparelli campaign has raised an additional $100 across actblue.

finally, it’s been frigid in the chicagoland area — something that has traditionally been called precinct captain’s weather.  the idea behind that phrase was to suggest that only those who benefited from patronage jobs from the machine would be so bold as to go out and campaign when it was in the single digits.  only now — after early voting has begun — are traditional precinct captains getting out and telling “their” voters who to vote for (ie, lipinski).  the hold of the chicago democratic machine has been fading of late, but this congressional seat is at the heart of the machine.  if they can’t win it for lipinski, they can’t win it for anyone.  for the next two weeks, we’re going to find out how powerful the chicago machine is now.  this is clearly the most viable threat that has been posed to the machine on the southwest side of chicagoland…

MLK Day Round-up

Let's take a look back at some of the stories that fell though the cracks over the past week or so:

    CT-4: The beneficiary of a Swing State Project co-sponsored blograiser, Jim Himes is stretching every last dollar in his campaign against Chris Shays. In other news from the district, it appears that Shays' congressional staffers are jumping ship before it goes under.

    FL-10: Confronting retirement rumors, Bill Young, the longest-serving Republican in Congress told local reporters, “Unless I tell you something different, just assume that I am running.”

    FL-24: Democratic challenger Suzanne Kosmas has raised over $350,000 in her bid to unseat Rep. Tom Feeney, an amount the Kosmas campaign claims “outpaced Feeney's best fundraising quarter of his Congressional career on record.”

    KY-Sen: Businessman Greg Fischer joins the Democratic race to ditch Mitch McConnell.

    OH-10: Cleveland mayor Frank Jackson endorsed one of Special K's primary opponents, councilman Joe Cimperman.

    TX-22: Republican Dean Hrbacek, running against incumbent Nick Lampson, sent out a direct mail piece featuring a “computerized composite of Hrbacek's face and someone else's slimmer figure, in suit and tie, from neck to kneecaps.”

    VA-House:  With Democrats taking a majority in the Virginia state senate, the party firmly has a seat at the redistricting table. Seeking to avoid a stalemate with the GOP-controlled state house, Gov. Tim Kaine is pushing a plan for nonpartisan redistricting.

Show the DSCC! Help boost Draft Kleeb pledge numbers!

As discussed yesterday, Scott Kleeb told Nebraska TV that he will be meeting with national Democratic Party leaders this next week to gauge his support in D.C. I am assuming, most importantly, that Scott will be meeting with the DSCC leadership. The DSCC will be pledging an unknown amount of money and resources to Scott’s potential Senate candidacy and we need to make sure the Washington support is as big as possible.

The DSCC will undoubtedly gauge Scott’s chances by looking at his support, not just in Nebraska from the Netroots as well. Which is why I ask for your help today.

Draft Kleeb has been sponsoring a pledge drive (PLEDGE for KLEEB) where Kleeb supporters from around the state of Nebraska can pledge their support to our potential candidate. Now we are turning to the netroots for help as well.

Please take the time to head to our PLEDGE DRIVE site and fill out the information. If you can spare it, pledge $5-$10-$15-whatever amount and please pledge some volunteer hours. Even if you live outside of Nebraska you can still play a role in this campaign. Or at the vary least, simply pledge your support – the DSCC needs to know that Scott has the support to win this race. It won’t be easy, but it is possible!

PLEDGE for KLEEB today!

Thank you for your continued support!

Congressional races by state: MT, ID, MO, SD, SC

For previous diaries in this series, see this page

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to swingstateproject

These are all states with filing deadlines in late March

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

ID has 2 congressional districts, both held by Republicans

MO has 9 districts, 5 Republican and 4 Democratic

MT has 1 district, with a Republican

SC has 6 districts, 4 Republican and 2 Democratic

SD has 1 district,, with a Democrat

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

MO-01     D+26   .11       Clay             No             Safe

MO-03     D+8    .47       Carnahan         Yes            Mostly safe

MO-04     R+11   .77       Skelton          No             Safe

MO-05     D+12   .25       Cleaver          Yes            Safe

SC-05     R+6    .52       Spratt           No             Safe

SC-06     D+11   .26       Clyburn          No             Safe

SD-AL     ???    .56       Herseth Sandlin  No             Safe

Seats held by Republicans

MO-02 R+9  .73

MO-02 is an odd shaped district in northeastern MO, bordering IL.  It completely surrounds MO-01, which is St. Louis

Akin, first elected in 2000, has won easily, but his opponent the last two times (George Weber) managed to get almost 40% in 2006, with almost no money

Weber is running again.

Also running is Mike Garman , who seems to be a health care specialist.

MO-06 R+5  .69

MO-06 is the northwestern part of MO, bordering NB, KS, and IA.

Graves, first elected in 2000, has won easily. In 2004, he did substantially better than Bush, even though his opponent raised almost $1 million.

This year, his opponent is former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes who has been running since May, 2007, and has the backing of the DCCC.  This could be interesting.

MO-07 R+14 .64

MO-07 is the southwest corner of MO, bordering KS, OK, and AR

Blunt, first elected in 1996, has won easily, raising huge amounts of money (over $3 million in 2004 and 2006).

There is no confirmed challenger, although Jack Truman who ran in 2006, appears to be running.

MO-08 R+11 .71

MO-08 is the southeastern quarter of MO, bordering IL, KY, TN, and AR

Emerson, first elected in 1996, has won easily against underfunded opponents.

There is no confirmed challenger

MO-09 R+7 .76

MO-09 is the northeast portion of MO, excluding St. Louis and its suburbs and exurbs.

Hulshof, first elected in 1996, won very narrowly then (getting less than 50%) but much more easily since. In 2006, he beat Duane Burghard 61-36, outraising him by 5-1.

Burghard is running again.

MT-AL R+?? .56

MT has only one CD.  Although it went strongly for Bush, it also has 2 Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor

Rehberg, first elected in 2000, may retire to run for Senate against Baucus (he tried in 1996, and lost, 50-45). He has won re-election easily

There is no confirmed challenger (but if Rehberg does go for the Senate run, that should change)

SC-01 R+10  .43

SC-01 is a long thin strip of coastline, that also touches NC

Brown, first elected in 2000, has won easily, sometimes unopposed by a Democrat.  He may retire.

Linda Ketner is thinking about running for this seat.  Go for it, Linda!

SC-02 R+9 .53

SC-02 is an I shaped district, running south from Columbia to the Atlantic, and bordering GA.

Wilson, first elected in 2001, has won easily against underfunded opponents.  In 2006, Michael Ellison got 37% of the vote with almost no money

There is no confirmed challenger

SC-03 R+14  .61

SC-03 is the northwest portion of SC, mostly bordering GA.

Barrett, first elected in 2002, has won easily against underfunded opponents (when he had one)

There are no confirmed challengers

SC-04 R+15 .47

SC-04 is the central part of northern SC including Spartanburg, and borders NC

Inglis, first elected in 2004 (but also in congress from 1992-1997) has won easily against underfunded opponents

The 2006 challenger William Griffith may run again.  Go for it!  You gotta love a candidate who has a page on his website called ‘nerds’!

Rasmussen Congressional Poll–could the House flip back?

Rasmussen’s latest Congressional generic poll has the Democrats only up 43%-38%.

While I think Rasmussen has been touting that 2008 will be more of a Republican year, this poll result should be a cause of a lot of worry.

We’re likely going to field fewer candidates than 2006, and the Republicans will need one less

seat after March 11 (I’m very pessimistic about

this special election).

What’s to blame?  I think it’s a combination of poor leadership, the surge (let’s admit it–it hasn’t really worked, but a brilliant political move), and the effect of consistently poor approval ratings.  You can’t escape 25% forever.

Any thoughts?

NE-Sen: Scott Kleeb – “Starting today, we’re on full time.”

From Nebraska TV:

Some traveled a few hours to be here, and others are running for state legislature in their district.

Saturday was about networking and developing a strategy to get Democrats excited about the state presidential caucus coming up, and more awareness in the third district.

“We want the 3rd district to move,” one Democrat announced to the crowd.

Move to reach rural communities and young people whom party members say their district is losing.

“I see the 3rd district floundering,” Lisa Hannah said, a local Democrat considering running for state legislature.  “The next census we could end up losing our district.”

Lisa Hannah used to be a Republican, but experience with national Democratic leaders and concern for her community changed her mind.

“I see the Democratic party as moving forward.”

She may run for state legislature but her goal now is to network by sharing ideas with fellow Democrats like Kate Sullivan.  She’s running for the 41st district.

“I care for rural populations. They continue to decline,” she said.

Both women show concern for  rural areas, and they share high hopes for Nebraska with everyone else at the meeting, especially with the presidential caucus coming up.

With the possibility of Scott Kleeb running for office, that’s enough to bring these folks to their feet.

“Starting today, we’re on full time,” Kleeb said.

Kleeb says he’ll be very involved in the third district, but says he has not decided if he will run yet.  He’s meeting with party leaders in Washington D.C. next week, and said he’ll make a decision in the next two weeks.  He says family time and raising enough campaign money are big factors in his decision.

First of all, I am delighted to see Democrats getting active in the 3rd District. Using Scott’s 2006 Congressional race as a model, Democrats should be able to make some progress in one of the most conservative districts in the nation.

Second, I am glad to hear that Scott is meeting with party leaders next week. That is a major step in the direction of a U.S. Senate race. We can only hope that said national leaders (I’m betting Chuck Shumer is one of them) pledge to help Scott as so many other activists have done through Draft Kleeb’s Pledge Drive.

So how can we make sure that national Democrats give Scott the resources he needs to win this race? By pledging ourselves! I am convinced that someone at the DSCC looks at this website and probably checks the pledge drive…so we must boost our numbers for Scott!

So what are you waiting for? PLEDGE volunteer hours. PLEDGE contributions. Or just PLEDGE your support to Scott! We have gotten this far together, all we need to do is cross that finish line! PLEDGE for KLEEB today!

MN-SEN

This was supposed to be the marquee race of the 08 cycle. But I’ve heard very, very little about it in recent months.

It seems like Franken has the leg up right now. The question with Franken was whether or not he was a serious candidate and whether or not he could win. He’s definitely confirmed the first part. And the second part, he’s been polling just as good as Ciresi recently.

Minnesotans fill me in, what does it look like?

OR-Sen: Novick Campaign Attempts to Manufacture Sham Endorsement

Last July, when Speaker Jeff Merkley entered the US Senate race, Steve Novick promised Oregon voters an “inspired primary where each of us makes our case for why we must replace Gordon Smith and presents our respective visions.” While there were early signs Novick might not be planning to run such a campaign, things have taken a recent turn for the worse

All the signs point to members of the Novick campaign attempting to create a local chapter of the Progressive Democrats of America with the intention of receiving its endorsement:

On Tuesday, the Merkley campaign got an email inviting Jeff Merkley to an endorsement meeting this Saturday for the Portland chapter of the Progressive Democrats of America.

Four days notice is pretty tight for an endorsement meeting, but that was only the first red flag.

The email was sent by the “State Coordinator” of the Progressive Democrats of America…. Liz Kimmerly. Who is Liz Kimmerly? She's a senior staffer for the Novick for Senate campaign.

That's right: The endorsement process by which the PDA would endorse a U.S. Senate candidate is being organized by the staff of one of the candidates.

Further implicating the Novick campaign staff, it appears that the local chapter planned to disregard the national organization's guidelines for endorsements, which require “a written questionnaire prior to the interview and 30 days notice to all local PDA members about the interview meeting.” And perhaps most unsettling, the national PDA says the Portland chapter was a mere “48 hours” old at the time the endorsement meeting was announced.

Apparently, the Novick campaign is “so desperate for their first organizational endorsement that they tried to fake one” by “setting up a shotgun chapter of a national organization in order to get their endorsement.” If nothing else, this whole ordeal is embarassing to the Novick campaign; these aren't the sort of dirty campaign tricks Democrats should be using against each other in a party primary.

Update: While nothing takes away from the hard facts of the matter, it's worth noting for disclosure reasons that Kari Chisholm, author of the BlueOregon piece, works as a consultant for the Merkley campaign. In this instance however, the message remains unchanged and speaks for itself regardless of the messenger.

Is Northup getting ready to challenge Yarmuth in KY-03?

It looks as if former Rep. Ann Northup who held the strongly Democratic KY-03 from 1996 until she was defeated by Yarmuth in 2006, may run again now that the GOP’s top recruit, federal prosecutor Erwin Roberts has dropped out of the race.  http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

I am skeptical of Northup’s ability to win this district after her amazing 13% loss to the scandal tarred Ernie Fletcher in the gubernatorial primary.  Add to that the fact that even after she represented the district for a decade, a partisan NRCC poll still has her trailing Yarmuth 47%-49%, which means after partisan adjustments she probably trails 43%-53% in reality.  http://www.campaigndiaries.com/  She also doesn’t get the usual incumbent rule since she held the district as recently as two years ago.  

I should also point out that this is the only district in the state that John Kerry managed to carry in 2004 and this is even more impressive since he was killed statewide by 21%.  Any Democratic nominee would carry this district in 2008 and that will help Yarmuth greatly since incumbents usually run ahead of their national ticket.  Still, I would continue to watch this race.  If Northup gets in, what looked like an easy hold gets much tougher.