Month: January 2008

the most important news at this point is that early voting has begun.  for those who live in illinois’ 14th congressional district, the ballot positions for the special primary election are:

Bill Foster

John Laesch

Jotham Stein

ballot positions for the regular primary election are:

John Laesch

Jotham Stein

Bill Foster

Joe Serra

the winner of the special primary election should expect lots of support.  the dccc put il-14 on it’s first round of red-to-blue races:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the campaign arm of the Democratic Party majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, has announced its initial roster of candidates in a program that will provide them with enhanced fundraising and strategic assistance – most of them for efforts to take over Republican-held seats in this year’s elections.

Candidate to be determined, Illinois’ 14th (North central – Aurora, Elgin, DeKalb). The special election to replace Hastert has been scheduled for March 8, and the parties will select their nominees in primary elections on Feb. 5 – the same day that district voters will cast ballots in the regularly scheduled primary election. The Democratic winner in both contests almost certainly will be Bill Foster, a scientist and businessman who has support from the Democratic hierarchy. Foster is personally wealthy and had early success raising campaign money from other sources, but the Democrats will give him plenty of extra help in the hopes of stealing a generally Republican-leaning district. The Republican field includes state Sen. Chris Lauzen and dairy executive Jim Oberweis, who is Hastert’s preferred candidate.

2004 vote for president: Bush 55 percent, Kerry 44 percent

the dccc won’t be the only democrats rushing in to help foster.

the lawsuit filed by the local election boards has been decided.  “A federal judge has approved an abbreviated calendar for a special March general election to fill a vacancy in the 14th Congressional District…. Judge Ruben Castillo set new deadlines for the tasks to be completed to take into account the time between the two elections.”  one thing i’m going to be paying attention to is how much differentiation there is between turnout in these two separate elections.

this is endorsement season and bill foster has wrapped up most of the newspaper endorsements.  foster got the major chicago paper’s endorsements.  the chicago tribune wrote:

Local Democratic leaders, though, seem to be coalescing around Bill Foster of Geneva, a particle physicist at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. Here’s a first for an Illinois campaign: Foster is endorsed by 22 Nobel Prize winners. Foster is a strong candidate, and he has our support.

the sun-times advised:

Among Democrats, we endorse retired Fermilab physicist and successful businessman Bill Foster of Geneva. His moderate views fit best with the 14th.

Foster’s physics background would be handy in addressing atomic energy and weapons issues and in defending continued funding of Fermilab and Argonne.

We are wary, though, of Foster’s support of a potentially Big Brother type of national employee verification card. He also favors putting up a real or virtual border wall.

His personal hero — and a man whose commitment he tries to emulate — is his late father, Bill, a law professor who helped write the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

foster also won the endorsements from the kane county chonicle and the dekalb daily chronicle.

the aurora beacon news and the ledger sentinel wrote about john laesch’s endorsement by his hometown mayor, valerie burd.  

there’s been plenty of stories about the candidate debates.  the telegraph and daily gazette had this write up, and the beacon news had this one, about the debate two weeks ago.  more recently, the beacon news (here and here) and the daily herald wrote about this weekend’s debate.  in other coverage, the courier news wrote about the candidate’s different approaches to health care, while the daily herald looks at their views on iraq.  chicago’s abc station had this piece about the race (although i never got it to play on my computer).

in more candidate-specific articles, the beacon news and the courier news covered jotham stein’s announcement of his economic plan.  the daily herald covered bill foster’s reaction to president bush’s visit to chicago while the beacon news covered foster’s increasing concentration on his forthcoming republican opponent.  the beacon news also took a tour around the world wide web, looking at the candidate’s websites.

the laesch campaign continues to conduct much of its efforts online.  there were campaign updates herehere, here, here, here and here.  downtowner adds her perspective here and here.  daddy4mak gets excited about pat quinn’s endorsement as does howie klein.  he also hails the endorsement from noam chomsky while calling this race the most “important race in the entire country on February 5.”  archpundit wonders why laesch wants to get rid of the alternative minimum tax (i guess if the leading candidate supports fiscal responsibility, you may as well come out against it).

live leak had this video of the quinn endorsement.  the national pda joined the il-14 and chicago branches in endorsing laesch.

foster has gained more support.  bill baar has been faithful in posting mailers from the candidates, including foster’s: here, here and here.  foster also has a new television commercial, which can be seen here.  

jotham stein has put up a series of youtube videos, on fermilab, buying a seat in congress, and food and health care for every child.

there are still a number of opportunities to hear the candidates.  on thursday night, they will participate in the aurora beacon news/cbs 2 debate (which will also be webcast).  sunday morning WBBM-AM will air a candidate forum on the “at issue” program.  both of these forums provide people numerous chances to compare the candidates on the issues.

the foster campaign reports:

We’re talking to a lot of voters these days, especially with our Aurora field office up and running.

Iraq, of course, is a big issue in the minds of voters, as is frustration with politics-as-usual and squabbling in Washington.  However, we’re also seeing an increase in concerns over jobs, the mortgage crisis, and the general state of the economy.

The message remains that Bill Foster’s background as a scientist and a businessman will enable him to confront the challenges facing this district and this country, and change the bickering ways in Washington that prevent anything from getting done.

it adds:

We’re continuing to run a campaign that’s focused on the issues and telling voters about Bill Foster.  That stands in stark contrast to the Republican candidates in this race, who seem to be more focused on attacking each other than on talking about issues that matter to voters.

Bill is receiving a lot of organic support from the scientific community, which is excited by the prospect of sending an accomplished physicist to Congress.  They recognize how critical that background will be to tackling the tough technological problems – energy independence and health care, for example – America faces.

early voting has begun, and jotham stein and bill foster both have votes.  given the popularity of early voting this time, it seems that this race could see a record primary turnout — for both elections.  vote twice.  it’s your right…

An effort of the New Mexico Netroots including Democracy for New Mexico and New Mexico FBIHOP.

For more, see Democracy for New Mexico’s post and words from one of the candidates himself, Martin Heinrich with guest blogs at both of the blogs.

We are in a unique situation in New Mexico.  There is an open Senate seat as well as three open House seats.  The other Senate seat is already held by a Democrat (Jeff Bingaman).  This means four out of five federal seats are up for grabs. In other words, we have an opportunity to make a True Blue New Mexico.  

Today, on January 23, the George W Bush administration, current and former employees alike, will do their best to get Republicans elected.  Dick Cheney will hold a fundraiser in DC for Senate candidate Steve Pearce.  He has already held  a similar DC fundraiser for Heather Wilson.  And none other than Karl Rove himself will headline a fundraiser today. Rove will be in Artesia, NM to raise money for the New Mexico Republican Party.

You can do your part by donating to great progressive Democratic candidates at our ActBlue page.  So why are we doing this drive now?

All this is money — which  will come from wealthy Republicans — will be used to blunt the possibility of a True Blue New Mexico.  So what can we do?  Show them their $5000/PAC, $2000/person dinners with Vice President Dick Cheney are no match for our people powered politics.

So who are the candidates we’re supporting with the True Blue New Mexico donation drive?  

For Senate, the choice is obvious.  Tom Udall is currently a true progressive voice in the House. Udall will be a true progressive voice in the Senate when he is New Mexico’s next Senator.  Not only will this be a great change from Sen. Pete Domenici, but much better than the two main Republican choices.  The ultra-conservative Steve Pearce and fake-moderate Heather Wilson would be disasters for New Mexico.

In the First Congressional District, Martin Heinrich is another great progressive voice.  As an Albuquerque city councilor, Heinrich spoke out against the War in Iraq when it was not a popular thing to do.  He has won environmental awards and has called for an Apollo-type program for energy independence.  And Heinrich spearheaded a successful effort to raise the minimum wage in Albuquerque.  He is a true progressive.

The same cannot be said of his likely general election opponent, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White.  White was the Bernalillo County Chair of the Bush/Cheney campaign in 2004.  In other words, he is partially responsible for helping deliver the county to Bush in 2004.  He does not even have the illusion of moderation that Heather Wilson has; as one person told me, “He isn’t even Heather Wilson — he’s Steve Pearce.”  Not what the First Congressional District needs — now or ever.

In the Second Congressional District, we are lucky enough to have another great candidate in Bill McCamley.  McCamley has experience in Southern New Mexico; he is a Doña Ana County Commissioner and a New Mexico State Alum.  Lobo fans (like myself) will have to give him a pass on that last one, but only because he has great stances on the issues and would make a fine Representative.

McCamley’s Republican opponents will surely be ensnarled in a costly and bitter primary.  The Republicans see this as a safe Republican seat; but last election, it took an incumbent Republican (Pearce) a ten-to-one money advantage to reach 60 percent against an underfunded and unknown Democratic opponent.  This seat isn’t outside the realm of possibility, and if anyone can deliver it, it would be McCamley.

The Third Congressional District is a bit more muddled.  It’s a problem that most districts in the country would love to have: too many great progressive candidates any one of which can win the general.  So instead of asking people to donate to one progressive candidate in the primary, we ask that money be donated to the NM-03 Democratic Nominee Fund.  The money raised for this will go to the eventual Democratic nominee after the June 3 primary elections.

So once again, please donate to some great Democratic candidates and show  Dick Cheney and Karl Rove that they can’t decide who wins elections by top dollar fundraisers.

As we wrote back in October, Democrats have been aiming to recruit three solid challengers to dislodge the heavily-entrenched trio of Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-21 and FL-25, respectively) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18).

The first heavy hitter, former Hialeah mayor Raul Martinez, threw his hat into the ring against Lincoln Diaz-Balart yesterday.

Are two more challengers on the way?  Local NBC6 political reporter Nick Bogert reports that the Democrats will field a full slate against the Miami-area incumbents:

Democrats hope to take on all three long-time Cuban-American congressional Republicans, Bogert said.

Miami-Dade County party chair Joe Garcia said he will challenge Mario Diaz-Balart, and businesswoman Annette Taddeo will take on Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

Democrats may even set up political action committees to pay for advertisements attacking all three Republican incumbents, Bogert said. He said to expect Republicans to spend a lot to defend those seats.

Garcia, chair of the Miami-Dade Democratic Party and former Cuban-American National Foundation executive director, is the real deal, and should be an excellent candidate.

This is the first I’ve heard of Annette Taddeo, but her official biography is impressive.

Get ready for some south Florida barn-burners.

A shocker out of Missouri:

Missouri Gov. Matt Blunt, a Republican, just announced that he’s not running for re-election this fall.

In a statement that shocked political leaders in both parties, Blunt released a TV address “announcing that having achieved virtually everything he set out to accomplish when he ran for governor, he will not seek a second term.

Still waiting to see how this one shakes out, but Blunt seemed doomed against state AG Jay Nixon (D) in the general election this year.  Could the GOP find a strong contender to make this race safer for them?

Dennis Shulman, the inspiring blind doctor and rabbi who is seeking to unseat Republican incumbent Scott Garrett in NJ-5, has just secured the endorsement of Paul Aronsohn, who ran and lost to Garrett on the Democratic ticket two years ago.

With this crucial endorsement, in addition to raising nearly $200,000 in 2007, Shulman has established his bona fides  and is increasingly looking like the Democratic candidate to beat in this district that finally has a real chance to swing blue.

In other NJ-5 news, Steve Goldstein, the Garden State Equality chair and another supporter of  Shulman, found just the rights words to capture the uniqueness and potential of Shulman’s campaign when he commented:

“The only prayer of winning [in Nj-5, which is a predominantly Republican district] is to throw a Hail Mary pass – or I should say, a Hail Moses pass – by nominating a Dennis Shulman who has one of the most compelling life stories imaginable.  His kind of life story comes once in a blue moon among candidates and has the potential to capture the imagination of this Republican  district and transcend party lines.”

As a Shulman supporter myself, I couldn’t agree more with Goldstein’s assessment. Shulman really is a “blue moon” kind of candidate who possesses that rare ability to deeply and authentically connect with and inspire voters, regardless of party affiliation.

Candidate filing is sailing along with 5 states now having completed candidate filings. And other than a truly woeful performance by the Texas Democratic Party we are humming along.

Below the fold for details and once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.  

***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Lots of House races now have Democratic candidates that have bobbed up in the last week or so:

FL-21 – R+6,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

MI-04 – R+3,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

So 375 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 142 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):

Districts with confirmed candidates – 142

Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 0

Districts with rumoured candidates – 21

Districts without any candidates – 33

Filing closed – No Democratic candidate – 6

The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:

AL-01 – R+12,

AL-03 – R+4,

AL-04 – R+16,

AK-AL – R+14,

AZ-01 – R+2,

AZ-02 – R+9,

AZ-03 – R+6,

AZ-06 – R+12,

AR-03 – R+11,

CA-03 – R+7,

CA-04 – R+11,

CA-21 – R+13,

CA-24 – R+5,

CA-26 – R+4,

CA-40 – R+8,

CA-41 – R+9,

CA-42 – R+10,

CA-44 – R+6,

CA-45 – R+3,

CA-46 – R+6,

CA-48 – R+8,

CA-49 – R+10,

CA-50 – R+5,

CA-52 – R+9,

CO-04 – R+9,

CO-06 – R+10,

CT-04 – D+5,

DE-AL – D+7,

FL-01 – R+19,

FL-05 – R+5,

FL-07 – R+3,

FL-08 – R+3,

FL-09 – R+4,

FL-10 – D+1,

FL-12 – R+5,

FL-13 – R+4,

FL-14 – R+10,

FL-15 – R+4,

FL-21 – R+6,

FL-24 – R+3,

GA-01 – R+?,

GA-09 – R+?,

GA-10 – R+?,

ID-01 – R+19,

IL-06 – R+2.9,

IL-10 – D+4,

IL-11 – R+1.1,

IL-13 – R+5,

IL-14 – R+5,

IL-15 – R+6,

IL-16 – R+4,

IL-19 – R+8,

IN-03 – R+16,

IN-04 – R+17,

IN-06 – R+11,

IA-04 – D+0,

IA-05 – R+8,

KS-01 – R+20,

KS-04 – R+12,

KY-02 – R+12.9,

KY-04 – R+11.7,

KY-05 – R+8,

LA-01 – R+18,

LA-06 – R+7,

MD-01 – R+10,

MD-06 – R+13,

MI-02 – R+9,

MI-04 – R+3,

MI-07 – R+2,

MI-09 – R+0,

MI-11 – R+1.2,

MN-02 – R+2.7,

MN-03 – R+0.5,

MN-06 – R+5,

MO-02 – R+9,

MO-06 – R+5,

MO-07 – R+14,

MO-09 – R+7,

MS-01 – R+10,

MS-03 – R+14,

NV-03 – D+1,

NJ-03 – D+3.3,

NJ-04 – R+0.9,

NJ-05 – R+4,

NJ-07 – R+1,

NJ-11 – R+6,

NM-01 – D+2,

NM-02 – R+6,

NY-13 – D+1,

NY-23 – R+0.2,

NY-25 – D+3,

NY-26 – R+3,

NY-29 – R+5,

NC-03 – R+15,

NC-05 – R+15,

NC-06 – R+17,

NC-08 – R+3,

NC-09 – R+12,

NC-10 – R+15,

OH-01 – R+1,

OH-02 – R+13,

OH-03 – R+3,

OH-04 – R+14,

OH-05 – R+10,

OH-07 – R+6,

OH-08 – R+12,

OH-12 – R+0.7,

OH-14 – R+2,

OH-15 – R+1,

OH-16 – R+4,

OK-05 – R+12,

PA-03 – R+2,

PA-05 – R+10,

PA-06 – D+2.2,

PA-09 – R+15,

PA-15 – D+2,

PA-16 – R+11,

PA-18 – R+2,

TX-03 – R+17,

TX-04 – R+17,

TX-06 – R+15,

TX-07 – R+16,

TX-08 – R+20,

TX-10 – R+13,

TX-12 – R+14,

TX-13 – R+18,

TX-19 – R+25,

TX-24 – R+15,

TX-26 – R+12,

TX-31 – R+15,

TX-32 – R+11,

VA-02 – R+5.9,

VA-05 – R+6,

VA-06 – R+11,

VA-10 – R+5,

VA-11 – R+1,

WA-04 – R+13,

WA-08 – D+2,

WV-02 – R+5,

WI-01 – R+2,

WI-06 – R+5,

WY-AL – R+19,

The following GOP held districts have a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:

None currently

The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!

AL-02 – R+13,

FL-06 – R+8,

FL-25 – R+4,

GA-03 – R+?,

GA-06 – R+?,

GA-07 – R+?,

GA-11 – R+?,

IL-18 – R+5.5,

LA-04 – R+7,

MT-AL – R+11,

NE-02 – R+9,

NE-03 – R+23.6,

NV-02 – R+8.2,

NJ-02 – D+4.0,

NY-03 – D+2.1,

OK-03 – R+18,

OK-04 – R+13,

SC-01 – R+10,

SC-04 – R+15,

TN-07 – R+12,

UT-03 – R+22,

The following districts have not a single rumoured candidate:

AL-06 – R+25,

CA-02 – R+13,

CA-19 – R+10,

CA-22 – R+16,

CA-25 – R+7,

CO-05 – R+15.7,

FL-04 – R+16,

FL-18 – R+4,

ID-02 – R+19,

IN-05 – R+20,

KY-01 – R+10,

LA-05 – R+10,

LA-07 – R+7,

MI-03 – R+9,

MI-06 – R+2.3,

MI-08 – R+1.9,

MI-10 – R+4,

MO-08 – R+11,

NE-01 – R+11,

OK-01 – R+13,

OR-02 – R+11,

PA-19 – R+12,

SC-02 – R+9,

SC-03 – R+14,

TN-01 – R+14,

TN-02 – R+11,

TN-03 – R+8,

UT-01 – R+26,

VA-01 – R+9,

VA-04 – R+5,

VA-07 – R+11,

WA-05 – R+7.1,

WI-05 – R+12,

And last but not least the list I did not want to have to include.

The following Republicans will not have a Democratic opponent in 2008:

TX-01 – R+17,

TX-02 – R+12,

TX-05 – R+16,

TX-11 – R+25,

TX-14 – R+14,

TX-21 – R+13,

Finally due praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Colorado, Kentucky, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, Nevada, Montana, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. Thats 23 states with a full slate, and 15 states with one race to fill! That is more than 3/4 of the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 9 1/2 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, FL-12, LA-06, MS-03, VA-06 and WI-06; 7 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006! Of the other 3 TX-11 will again go uncontested whilst VA-04 and AL-06 do not currently have Democratic candidates.

We were on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006 but with the Texas debacle it now seems unlikely.

Expect to see FL-25, KY-01, AL-02, SC-01, LA-04 and MT-AL to fill soon.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

The so-called GOP “consensus candidate” to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Weller and take on Democratitc state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, New Lenox mayor Tim Baldermann, is looking more and more like a dud.  Case in point: GOP crumb-bum extraordinaire Dennis Hastert is bailing out the Baldermann campaign with a much-needed fundraiser:

Baldermann admits he needs the money.

“I have done very little fundraising,” he said. “It makes me sick to my stomach. My campaign people gave me a list of people who gave money to (Weller). I told them, ‘If you think I’m going to call somebody who’s never heard of me and ask for $2,300, that’s insane.’ I fight with them every single day over it.

“They wanted my Christmas card list. I’m not doing that stuff. I refuse to do it. The Republican Party wanted me to run; the Republican Party should help fund my campaign.”

Which Republican Party, Tim?  This one?

Get serious.

From the Miami Herald:

Raul Martinez, the charismatic but controversial former Hialeah mayor, is returning to politics to challenge one of the most powerful Republicans in the Cuban-American community: U.S. Rep. Lincoln Díaz-Balart.

Martinez’s expected announcement Tuesday in front of Hialeah City Hall pits two South Florida political titans — both admired by large numbers of Cuban Americans.

The campaign almost certainly will be deeply acrimonious with charges of corruption, and challenges of who’s tougher on Cuba. Martinez, 58, a Democrat, is the most serious challenger Republican Díaz-Balart, 53, has faced in his 15 years as U.S. congressman.

Diaz-Balart, of course, considers any challenge to him to be part of a pro-Castro conspiracy:

Díaz-Balart has told The Miami Herald and El Nuevo Herald that Martinez’s return is part of a ploy by Fidel Castro sympathizers to lift or weaken the U.S. trade embargo on Cuba. Martinez insists he is not interested in changing the four-decades’ old embargo against Cuba, though he wants to ease the restrictions the Bush administration set on family travel to Cuba and on remittances.

“He’s muddying the waters,” Martinez said. “What is he afraid of?”

FL-21 is pretty Republican turf on paper (it has a PVI of R+6.2), but Martinez is a huge local name and should make this a marquee race.  This should also be a strong test of the GOP’s endurance in the Cuban-American community.  Mark this one on your lists of “top races to watch”.