Tag: jotham stein

in a race like this one, after the financial disclosure reports are put up, there’s still things to watch for.  first, there’s the personal funds contributions reports like this one (PDF), this one (PDF), this one (PDF), this one (PDF) and this one (PDF) from bill foster.  these are paired with reports of opposition to personal funds like this one and this one from john laesch along with this one, this one and this one from jotham stein.  these are great fun for people running against a self-funder — well, when the fec has a working majority.  right now, there’s not a thing that the fec can do.  you can blame bush, if you want, for that, too.

then there’s the 48 hour notice for contributions in excess of $1,000 or more for the 20 days before an election.  these tell us who’s still aggressively raising money — which is more important, since the millionaire’s amendment has been tripped in this election (allowing laesch and stein to raise considerably more than $2300 from each contributor).  foster has raised at least $18,900 in new monies that required 48 hour notices.  laesch has raised at least $5,500 in new monies that required 48 hour notices.  and stein has raised at least $4,100 in new monies that required 48 hour notices.

foster racked up four more local newspaper endorsements this week: the aurora beacon news, the daily herald, the elgin courier news and the oswego ledger-sentinel.  it seems that foster received all the newspaper endorsements in the district.  laesch did, however, pick up the endorsement of the niu student newspaper.

there were several accounts of the cbs debate: the daily herald, cbs’ own version and the beacon news, another debate sponsor.  the daily herald also covered a recent foster mailing, where he called himself a “paul simon democrat.”  

I asked Simon’s daughter, Sheila Simon, if she’d seen the ad. She hadn’t. But the former member of the Carbondale City Council certainly didn’t take offense.

“Certainly lots of Democrats around that state have annual Paul Simon dinners,” she said. “Anyone who wants to pursue Dad’s line of thinking and associate with him that way, we’re always happy to say yes … It would give him a big kick.”

the beacon news published this article on the candidates:

“I’m not a politician” has been the well-intended, but now common, refrain offered by Democrats in the campaign to replace Rep. Dennis Hastert in the 14th Congressional District.

Meant as a way to distance themselves from party politics and business as usual in Washington, the phrase has provided another common thread linking candidates Bill Foster, John Laesch, Joe Serra and Jotham Stein.

From a policy-making standpoint, the quartet’s overall philosophies align fundamentally and closely when it comes to, among others, withdrawing troops from Iraq, border security and reducing the middle class tax burden.

Agree as they might, the candidates often are the only ones able to point out what makes them different

then there’s the attention given to how much money in the race — especially on the republican side.  the beacon news wrote about the $1.6 million jim oberweis dropped into the race.  the chicago tribune also had a story on the money angle.

The race to replace former House Speaker Dennis Hastert in Congress is turning into one of the most expensive, most bitter and, possibly, most confusing primaries in Illinois this year.

Most expensive because Republican candidates Jim Oberweis, 61, of Sugar Grove, state Sen. Chris Lauzen, 55, of Aurora and Democrat Bill Foster, 52, of Geneva are combining to spend millions.

Most vicious because Oberweis and Lauzen are regularly ripping each other.

And possibly most confusing because the candidates are running not only to replace Hastert next year, but also in a separate primary to complete his unexpired term this year. That means 14th Congressional District voters will cast ballots Feb. 5 in both the regular primary election and the special primary. Once that dust settles, the special general election to finish Hastert’s term will be held March 8.

“Many observers view this district as kind of a bellwether. If the Democrats win on March 8 that’s going to signal a big year for Dems in November,” said Matthew Streb, a Northern Illinois University political science professor.

A Democratic victory would be considered an upset in the solidly Republican district, where President Bush won 55 percent of the vote in the 2004 election and Hastert got 60 percent in 2006.

air america had laesch on the air.  laesch’s blog efforts continued.  they asked for votes for laesch to be the dfa grassroots all star (he didn’t move on).  daddy4mak wonders why laesch hasn’t been front paged at daily kos (donna edwards has been).  downtowner is looking for help in her precincts.  the laesch campaign held a health care forum.  richard bluestein is asking his readers to contribute to laesch (the same post appeared elsewhere, i don’t know how started it).  jassietay2 asks do you believe in miracles?  and rick flosi thinks that ron paul supporters will find something they like in laesch.

in addition, bill foster gave an interview.  his closing television ad is available here.  yinn wrote about foster’s endorsement by the daily herald.  foster also had a new web ad out.

democrats report that the while the laesch campaign has yet to mail, the california nurses association sent a targeted mailer calling laesch the right person on healthcare.  and quentin young recorded a robocall for laesch in the same vein.

the foster campaign reports that:

Obviously, the campaign is getting hectic as we close in on primary Election Day.  Bill was out in the snow this morning greeting commuters at train stations and reminding them to vote, and he’ll be contacting voters door-to-door, on the phone, and in public places every day through the election — except for Super Bowl Sunday.

We’re getting a lot of positive response from NIU students, and we’re opening up another field office in Sycamore, near DeKalb.

i asked all the campaigns what was their final message to voters.  the foster campaign replied:

Well, of course, get out there and vote twice on Tuesday, February 5!

Bill Foster is not a professional politician, and he’s never going to be the loudest voice in the room.  But as a scientist, businessman, and someone who’s lived the 14th District for over two decades, he’ll work hard to represent his constituents, act as an agent of change in Washington, and find solutions to the problems facing this country and this district.

they also noted:

The candidates on the Democratic side have, on balance, run a positive campaign talking about the issues.  The voters, not just in the primary but also in the special election in March, will notice and respect that.  People are sick and tired of the relentless personal attacks and politics-as-usual that we’ve seen among the Republican candidates in this race.

We appreciate all the support we’ve received in the community so far, from the grassroots on up, and look forward to building even more support in the coming weeks.

while all the campaigns are focused on their various gotv, i did want to report the victory parties, as they were lined up.  the laesch campaign is having their victory party at their campaign headquarters (46 W. Downer Place, Aurora).

Parking is available free after 5pm in LOT C. This is on River St, West of the office.

the victory party for the foster campaign is at:

Tavern on the Fox, near our field office in Aurora.  We wanted to provide a space for our volunteers and supporters to have a good time and watch the returns — not only for our race, but also for Super Tuesday.

outlook

i read with interest how all three democrats were confident in their (own) victory.  perhaps foster (personally) less so than the others.  strangely, he’s probably the one who should be the most confident.

laesch told one reporter that he had the highest name recognition of the three, which may have been true — before the campaign started.  but after hundreds, maybe thousands, of gross ratings points, at least 8 mailers and the rest of the effort by just one opponent, laesch has no reason to think that’s true now.

a number of laesch supporters have been aghast that i put so much stock in communicated message.  in my experience, message decides elections and you have to put the money in to get the message out.  foster has certainly done that, taking every opportunity to get his message out there.  this will be doubly important as barack obama drives turnout in the democratic race here and in the rest of illinois.

green and gerber’s authoritative book on mobilizing votes (“Get Out the Vote”) has some interesting statistics that really puts this in perspective.  on page 94 (table 8-1: Cost Effectiveness of Get-Out-the-Vote Tactics), the yale professors note that (from their research) direct mail wins one vote per 177 recipients (in partisan households).  door to door, with a persuasion script, garners one vote for every 14 CONTACTS with voters.  leafletting, which downtowner describes here gets you one vote for every 66 registered voters who see it before election day.

these percentages really sets the stage for what we will see next.  foster has dropped 8 mail pieces.  there are approximately 50,000 democrats in il-14 (nice round number), but professional campaigns don’t mail to voters, they mail to households.  and smart campaigns incorporate new information, so that the first round of mail is always a bigger drop than the last round.  doing some rough calculations, i figured that the foster campaign has dropped 265,000 pieces of mail.  what does that mean?  well, for the laesch campaign to have equaled the votes mobilized just from the foster mail drop, they would have had to make actual contact with 21,008 voters in the district.  doing so would have required 1750 hours canvassing (according to the gerber-green statistics) or 218 8 hour days canvassing.

that’s not even taking into consideration the reported 70 field staff that the foster campaign has out, or the likelihood that the foster campaign has knocked on as many, if not more, doors than the laesch campaign.  nor does it consider the fact that one report says that the laesch campaign was leafletting, not canvassing, which has a much higher contact to won vote ratio.

campaigns have advanced considerably from the “mr. smith goes to washington” days.  in the end, laesch didn’t get his message out.  they have been resting on their 2006 laurels, hoping that voters will remember laesch without much reminding and reward them for their grassroots enthusiasm.  i still believe that progressives can win elections virtually anywhere, including in il-14, but not unless they are willing to make the sacrifices needed to win (like raise money, hire an experienced staff, communicate their message to voters on a mass scale, etc).  only one candidate will have the funds and the resources required to win this seat starting on wednesday.  it’s highly unlikely that voters will turn their backs on this fact and choose a lesser known candidate…

the most important news at this point is that early voting has begun.  for those who live in illinois’ 14th congressional district, the ballot positions for the special primary election are:

Bill Foster

John Laesch

Jotham Stein

ballot positions for the regular primary election are:

John Laesch

Jotham Stein

Bill Foster

Joe Serra

the winner of the special primary election should expect lots of support.  the dccc put il-14 on it’s first round of red-to-blue races:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the campaign arm of the Democratic Party majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, has announced its initial roster of candidates in a program that will provide them with enhanced fundraising and strategic assistance – most of them for efforts to take over Republican-held seats in this year’s elections.

Candidate to be determined, Illinois’ 14th (North central – Aurora, Elgin, DeKalb). The special election to replace Hastert has been scheduled for March 8, and the parties will select their nominees in primary elections on Feb. 5 – the same day that district voters will cast ballots in the regularly scheduled primary election. The Democratic winner in both contests almost certainly will be Bill Foster, a scientist and businessman who has support from the Democratic hierarchy. Foster is personally wealthy and had early success raising campaign money from other sources, but the Democrats will give him plenty of extra help in the hopes of stealing a generally Republican-leaning district. The Republican field includes state Sen. Chris Lauzen and dairy executive Jim Oberweis, who is Hastert’s preferred candidate.

2004 vote for president: Bush 55 percent, Kerry 44 percent

the dccc won’t be the only democrats rushing in to help foster.

the lawsuit filed by the local election boards has been decided.  “A federal judge has approved an abbreviated calendar for a special March general election to fill a vacancy in the 14th Congressional District…. Judge Ruben Castillo set new deadlines for the tasks to be completed to take into account the time between the two elections.”  one thing i’m going to be paying attention to is how much differentiation there is between turnout in these two separate elections.

this is endorsement season and bill foster has wrapped up most of the newspaper endorsements.  foster got the major chicago paper’s endorsements.  the chicago tribune wrote:

Local Democratic leaders, though, seem to be coalescing around Bill Foster of Geneva, a particle physicist at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. Here’s a first for an Illinois campaign: Foster is endorsed by 22 Nobel Prize winners. Foster is a strong candidate, and he has our support.

the sun-times advised:

Among Democrats, we endorse retired Fermilab physicist and successful businessman Bill Foster of Geneva. His moderate views fit best with the 14th.

Foster’s physics background would be handy in addressing atomic energy and weapons issues and in defending continued funding of Fermilab and Argonne.

We are wary, though, of Foster’s support of a potentially Big Brother type of national employee verification card. He also favors putting up a real or virtual border wall.

His personal hero — and a man whose commitment he tries to emulate — is his late father, Bill, a law professor who helped write the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

foster also won the endorsements from the kane county chonicle and the dekalb daily chronicle.

the aurora beacon news and the ledger sentinel wrote about john laesch’s endorsement by his hometown mayor, valerie burd.  

there’s been plenty of stories about the candidate debates.  the telegraph and daily gazette had this write up, and the beacon news had this one, about the debate two weeks ago.  more recently, the beacon news (here and here) and the daily herald wrote about this weekend’s debate.  in other coverage, the courier news wrote about the candidate’s different approaches to health care, while the daily herald looks at their views on iraq.  chicago’s abc station had this piece about the race (although i never got it to play on my computer).

in more candidate-specific articles, the beacon news and the courier news covered jotham stein’s announcement of his economic plan.  the daily herald covered bill foster’s reaction to president bush’s visit to chicago while the beacon news covered foster’s increasing concentration on his forthcoming republican opponent.  the beacon news also took a tour around the world wide web, looking at the candidate’s websites.

the laesch campaign continues to conduct much of its efforts online.  there were campaign updates herehere, here, here, here and here.  downtowner adds her perspective here and here.  daddy4mak gets excited about pat quinn’s endorsement as does howie klein.  he also hails the endorsement from noam chomsky while calling this race the most “important race in the entire country on February 5.”  archpundit wonders why laesch wants to get rid of the alternative minimum tax (i guess if the leading candidate supports fiscal responsibility, you may as well come out against it).

live leak had this video of the quinn endorsement.  the national pda joined the il-14 and chicago branches in endorsing laesch.

foster has gained more support.  bill baar has been faithful in posting mailers from the candidates, including foster’s: here, here and here.  foster also has a new television commercial, which can be seen here.  

jotham stein has put up a series of youtube videos, on fermilab, buying a seat in congress, and food and health care for every child.

there are still a number of opportunities to hear the candidates.  on thursday night, they will participate in the aurora beacon news/cbs 2 debate (which will also be webcast).  sunday morning WBBM-AM will air a candidate forum on the “at issue” program.  both of these forums provide people numerous chances to compare the candidates on the issues.

the foster campaign reports:

We’re talking to a lot of voters these days, especially with our Aurora field office up and running.

Iraq, of course, is a big issue in the minds of voters, as is frustration with politics-as-usual and squabbling in Washington.  However, we’re also seeing an increase in concerns over jobs, the mortgage crisis, and the general state of the economy.

The message remains that Bill Foster’s background as a scientist and a businessman will enable him to confront the challenges facing this district and this country, and change the bickering ways in Washington that prevent anything from getting done.

it adds:

We’re continuing to run a campaign that’s focused on the issues and telling voters about Bill Foster.  That stands in stark contrast to the Republican candidates in this race, who seem to be more focused on attacking each other than on talking about issues that matter to voters.

Bill is receiving a lot of organic support from the scientific community, which is excited by the prospect of sending an accomplished physicist to Congress.  They recognize how critical that background will be to tackling the tough technological problems – energy independence and health care, for example – America faces.

early voting has begun, and jotham stein and bill foster both have votes.  given the popularity of early voting this time, it seems that this race could see a record primary turnout — for both elections.  vote twice.  it’s your right…

You know, it’s very kind of bored now to keep us all in the loop by providing Roundup diaries.  Of particular interest to me is the race in IL-14, so of course when I came back for a pit stop between trips today and saw that he had posted an IL-14 Roundup #3 diary, I took the time to scan it.

Hmmm.  There seems to be very little going on in the Laesch campaign, to hear bored tell it.  Could have sworn I heard about more endorsements recently than those bored now mentions in his coverage of the Laesch campaign, which amounts to this:

john laesch woke up to good news this morning: state senator mike noland has endorsed him.

and this:

booman tribune has an old interview of john laesch that now comes up on google search. his campaign continues its periodic campaign updates here and here. laesch’s former blogger also talks about Podunk,IL vs. the New Chicago Machine, the laesch youtube page covers his simmons appearance (broken into multiple videos and quentin young’s endorsement.

and…

no, I guess that’s about it – all the news bored could find the space or time to bring us about Laesch…

compared to this kind of coverage of Foster:

support for bill foster has been growing on the blogs. this post notes that foster is being called the front runner in the race. i also overlooked the bill foster interview epluribus media conducted at yearlykos. another post looks at foster’s energy proposals

and

foster has benefitted both from his status as a scientist and the recent cutbacks at fermilab (a major employer in the district). his science credentials are finding posts on political and non-political blogs, including Physics and Physicists: Politics & Science, and Open Science Thread: Politics & Science and another Open Science Thread. finally, Nuclear Mangos covered foster. one blogger wants you to know that he contributed to foster because of this. the cutbacks at fermilab have gotten foster mentions in the local press, Fermilab under threat due to federal budget and Federal budge so far not good for Fermilab

and

the foster campaign reports:

Bill Foster has been picking up the endorsements of local leaders in the district, including former Newark Mayor Roger Ness, DeKalb County Board member Robert Rosemier, Kane County Board members Gerald Jones, Bonnie Lee Kunkel, and Rudy Neuberger, and Aldermen Chuck Brown (Geneva), Mike Saville (Aurora), and Jim Volk (Batavia). His message that, as a scientist and businessman, he’s an experienced problem solver ready to address the issues facing our community and our nation and ready to change the ways things are done in Washington, is gaining traction and resonating with voters.

they have numerous events coming up in the next week including activities in winfield township, west dundee and elgin.

Followed by a curt:

the other campaigns did not report anything new for the next week or so.

Hmmm.  Guess that means there’s nothing new to report, eh?  Well, either that or bored is using that line (in reference to upcoming events on calendars) in an attempt to imply that the Foster campaign is where all the action is.

But really, bored seems to be missing a few details.

Let’s see, right there on the Laesch website I find news of several recent endorsements of Laesch that I can find no direct mention of in any (because I went back and checked them all) of bored now’s IL-14 Round Up diaries, including:

? Barbara Ehrenreich, best-selling author of “Nickel & Dimed”

? Studs Terkel (yeah, that Studs Terkel)

? nationally-syndicated radio host Mike Malloy

? Valerie Burd, Mayor, Yorkville

? Robin Sutcliff, 3rd Ward Alderman, Yorkville

? Jim Feeley, Vice-Chairman, Kendall County Democratic Party

? Ruth Anne Tobias, Chairperson, DeKalb County Board

? Lynn Schmitz, Executive Committee member, DeKalb County Democratic Party

? Jerry Sheridan, Chairman, Lee County Democratic Party

? Pat Jones, Jr., Treasurer, Lee County Democratic Party

? Karen Nelson, Whiteside County Board

? Tom Nicholson, Chair, Henry County Board

? Tim Wise, Chief of Police, Annawan

Oh, and lots and lots and lots of PCP endorsements.

Then there are some organizational endorsements that seem to have slipped by bored now in his “Roundup,” like, for instance:

? Independent Voters of Illinois – Independent Precinct Organizations

? IL-14 Progressive Democrats of America

? and the Chicago Progressive Democrats of America

? and the national Progressive Democrats of America

? Democratic Action Political Action Committee

? VET PAC

? Northwestern Illinois Building and Construction Trades Council

? International Union of Operating Engineers – Illinois State Branch

? Western Regional Council of the United Electrical, Radio & Machine Workers of America

? and, of course, John’s own union, Carpenter’s Local 195

At least bored now mentioned John’s AFL-CIO endorsement, in passing.

My personal favorite?  Would have to hands-down be the part where bored now tells us about favorable coverage of Foster (written by, not surprisingly, bored now) by providing text links that read like this

“this post notes that foster is being called the front runner in the race,”

while, in the same Roundup, giving us wildly descriptive text-links, like this about Laesch:

his campaign continues its periodic campaign updates here and here

to Laesch campaign blogs, where if you follow the links there you will find coverage in the Chicago Sun-Times, of Dick Simpson (head of the University of Illinois at Chicago’s Political Science Department, former Chicago alderman, author, progressive leader and columnist for the Sun-Times, who won his aldermanic race running against a much better financed candidate) predicting Laesch

is now headed to victory in the primary (and the March 14 special election to replace retired Hastert) over Bill Foster, a more conservative political newcomer, scientist and wealthy businessman.

But, of course, we wouldn’t want to go so far as to accuse bored now of spinning his roundup diaries to favor a particular candidate.  He does, after all, provide links to things, that link to other things, which in turn cover some of these not-directly-mentioned things.

On the other hand, if I were someone whose foremost intent was comprehensive coverage of the race in IL-14, or for that matter if I were Jotham Stein’s former blogger, I think I’d be taking the time to think through the “fair and balanced” nature of bored now’s “reporting” and “analysis” in his “Roundups” and taking the time to post a few of my own updates.  But I’m not, I’m just “Laesch’s former blogger” and current supporter so I’ll stick to Laesch news.

As far as IL-14 goes, my prediction stands: Anyone who is relying on bored now for news and an evenhanded analysis of the race in IL-14 is going to be very, very surprised on February 5.

cross-posted on Fireside14, PrairieStateBlue, MyDD, DailyKos

the two primaries in illinois’ 14th congressional district are fast approaching.  the biggest piece of news in this race is that the endorsement session for the chicago tribune is available online:

but given the importance of this particular race — voters will not only be choosing their nominees for the general election in november, but also their nominees for the special election in march to fill the term of retiring dennis hastert — there’s plenty of other news.

we can file the recent articles into three categories: news about the special election, coverage of the numerous debates in this race and news about the candidates themselves.  the authoritative illinois issues online has comprehensive coverage in this month’s issue.  congressional quarterly, as usual, had two articles about the race, starting with a setup piece that mentions how important it is for democrats to win this seat:

The next special House election – the sixth of the 2007-08 cycle – will occur March 8 in Illinois’ 14th District, a mostly suburban district west of Chicago where the winner will succeed former Republican House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, who resigned Nov. 26. That contest may turn out to be the most competitive special election this cycle: While Illinois’ 14th gave Bush 55 percent of the vote in the 2004 election, it is the most politically competitive in presidential vote performance of the seven districts that have held special elections this election cycle or soon will.

The chief contestants – Democratic scientist Bill Foster and Republicans Chris Lauzen, a state senator, and Jim Oberweis, a dairy executive – are well-funded and are preparing to run in a Feb. 5 special primary election that will coincide with the state’s regularly scheduled primary election.

another article notes the potential confusion of asking voters to cast two different ballots.

the ongoing debates between the three democrats (and, sometimes, two republicans — joe serra seems to be MIA) have generated plenty of coverage.  the chambers of commerce breakfast in st. charles continued to receive coverage, here and here

both chicago public radio and wgn radio covered last night’s (january 8) debate; i don’t know why their aren’t streaming versions of their coverage.  the kane county chronicle also covered the debate.  there was also this coverage of the endorsement session at the aurora beacon news.

john laesch woke up to good news this morning: state senator mike noland has endorsed him.  last week, bill foster was in the news for receiving endorsements by elected officials of both parties.

jotham stein won among democrats in eric zorn’s year end reader poll (1,375 total responses)  biil baar wonders if that doesn’t make stein our huckabee?  stein started a new youtube page that includes the introductory video on his website, as well as two new videos: Global Warming and Immigration Reform v. Scientist’s National ID Card.  

booman tribune has an old interview of john laesch that now comes up on google search.  his campaign continues its periodic campaign updates here and here.  laesch’s former blogger also talks about Podunk,IL vs. the New Chicago Machine.  the laesch youtube page covers his simmons appearance (broken into multiple videos and quentin young’s endorsement.

support for bill foster has been growing on the blogs.  this post notes that foster is being called the front runner in the race.  i also overlooked the bill foster interview epluribus media conducted at yearlykos.  another post looks at foster’s energy proposals.

foster has benefitted both from his status as a scientist and the recent cutbacks at fermilab (a major employer in the district).  his science credentials are finding posts on political and non-political blogs, including Physics and Physicists: Politics & Science, and Open Science Thread: Politics & Science and another Open Science Thread.  finally, Nuclear Mangos covered foster.  one blogger wants you to know that he contributed to foster because of this.  the cutbacks at fermilab have gotten foster mentions in the local press, Fermilab under threat due to federal budget and Federal budget so far not good for Fermilab.

it’s become apparent to everyone that all three campaigns have active efforts in contacting voters at their door or phone.  the foster campaign has begun it’s mail effort and is more frequently advertising on television.  i expect the stein campaign to begin to mail to voters shortly; no one knows if laesch will have the money to mail.

perhaps the biggest development is the effort at the regional level to organize democrats to participate in the special election in march.  a loose coalition of party organizations and grassroots activists are beginning to focus on this race after the super duper tuesday.  the most recent development in this area is the interest in taking the lessons learned in iowa by midwestern democrats and apply them to this special election.

the foster campaign reports:

Bill Foster has been picking up the endorsements of local leaders in the district, including former Newark Mayor Roger Ness, DeKalb County Board member Robert Rosemier, Kane County Board members Gerald Jones, Bonnie Lee Kunkel, and Rudy Neuberger, and Aldermen Chuck Brown (Geneva), Mike Saville (Aurora), and Jim Volk (Batavia).  His message that, as a scientist and businessman, he’s an experienced problem solver ready to address the issues facing our community and our nation and ready to change the ways thinsg are done in Washington, is gaining traction and resonating with voters.

they have numerous events coming up in the next week including activities in winfield township, west dundee and elgin.

the other campaigns did not report anything new for the next week or so.

as for outlook, it will be interesting to see how the different campaign’s messages resonate with voters.  while laesch has a certain emotional appeal to the area’s progressives, foster apparently has an equally emotional appeal to those effected by the fermilab job losses.  other residents fearing for their jobs may coalesce around foster, as well.  stein has reacted strongly to some of foster’s proposals, and this may provide another emotional base for support.  but you have to reach people through all the noise and connect with them to secure an emotional base.  the debates scheduled with the republican candidates doesn’t really help the three differentiate themselves from one another…

like il-03, there are new endorsements that have been announced since the first post.  john laesch has gotten the afl-cio endorsement [PDF], the endorsement of pdachicago, and the endorsement of the western regional council of the united electrical, radio & machine workers of america.

bill foster has increased his growing list of endorsements with endorsements by senator durbin, afscme state council 31, planned parenthood, seiu as well as 22 nobel prize winners and a growing list of voters.

jotham stein got the endorsement of harry katz, dean of cornell university’s school of industrial and labor relations, which i failed to mentioned before.

the local papers have been covering the fact that there is a special election in the district.  the daily herald covered both the opening of candidate’s petition drives and the first day of filing:

Laesch, a Newark carpenter who challenged Hastert a year ago, turned in more than 1,700 signatures and Foster, a former Fermilab scientist from Geneva, had 1,832.

The top Republican and Democratic vote-getters in the special primary will compete in the special general election March 8 to fulfill the remainder of Hastert’s term, which ends in January 2009.

a candidate’s forum was held in st charles for candidates of both parties.  the three major democrats attended, and the daily herald, the st charles republican and kane county chronicle covered the fireworks.  so did aurora’s openline blog.  openline also gave more general coverage of the race.

kendall county democrats have set up their own board for following this race.

several outlets picked up the dueling endorsements of durbin for foster and afl-cio for laesch.  rich miller’s capitol fax blog noted that, “Both of these endorsements are important in a Democratic primary, and neither will come with a whole lot of cash.”  the beacon news and courier news covered it, as did the kane county chronicle.  aurora’s openline blog hit at this angle.  both the daily herald and the chicago tribune’s clout street blog covered the dueling unions (afl-cio and afscme) angle.

laesch was interviewed for the progressive news daily podcast.  he also live blogged at firedoglake.  the campaign congratulated their “all-volunteer army of John’s friends and neighbors in the 14th district” for getting on the special election ballot.  wurfwhile covered laesch’s endorsement by the alf-cio and was late in his coverage of laesch’s november press conference (but not for the video of it.  otoh, archpundit points out that laesch’s energy statement supports banning corn-based ethanol, and takes contradictory positions on spending money on scientific research.  he also points out the irony of anger at planned parenthood’s endorsement of foster, when he refused “to accept donations from pro-abortion rights political action committees” in 2006.

jotham stein got coverage for his education proposal in the daily herald and for filing his paperwork for the special election.  stein was also busy on the airwaves, getting interviewed on the mike koolidge show and wls’ connected to chicago

foster has been the big winner of news coverage, both local and national, this time. us news and world report reported on the foster as scientist angle.  george bush’s assault on science is getting attention everywhere.  the beacon news covered foster’s energy plan.  the kane county chronicle covered durbin’s endorsement of foster.  several of the sun-times local papers covered planned parenthood’s endorsement of foster: here and here.  

foster is also getting lots of local blog support.  hiram wurf talked about his endorsement of foster, other key endorsements, the durbin endorsement, the afscme endorsement, the planned parenthood endorsement, the trouble seeing foster’s grassroots support, and the seiu endorsement.  archpundit had stories about foster’s endorsements and foster’s new commercial.

aaron krager, of faithfully liberal, blogged about his volunteer stint for the foster campaign as well as foster hitting the air waves.  clout street also covered foster’s new cable ad.  nosugrefneb talks about a letter making the rounds of scientists and grad students at the university of chicago, university of illinois at chicago and northwestern.  prairie state blue covered foster’s live blogging for dailykos, including video of the session.  that blog also covered foster’s nerdiness.  aurora’s openline blog wonders why foster accepted the planned parenthood endorsement.

john laesch has a spiffy new website up (link above) that is more high res and feature rich.  the text for the site seems to be the same, but it now includes a photo suitable for print media and a flickr photostream.  i hadn’t noticed before (so it may be new), but the site encourages you to “Nominate John Laesch at Democracy for America” but it has (so far) failed to apply for the dfa endorsement.  (campaigns can apply at this link).  one new feature, it’s spanish translation, hasn’t been completed yet.  nonetheless, this is a great improvement.  simple, easy to navigate, eye candy.  laesch also has a new youtube video.

stein also has a new video up on his website (link above) that focuses on family.  stein’s spanish page IS in spanish!  (not new, just the contrast.)

foster has a new cable ad running.  they also have a new brand across the web reminding everyone of the special election on march 8th.  looking past the february 5th elections, are we?

given the proximity of christmas, you might think that the campaigns would be slowing down.  not happening.  the laesch campaign begins its gotv training on saturday at 10:30.  the stein campaign will continue to release his ideas and positions on the issues and volunteers are working out of the campaign headquarters to communicate with supporters and people who signed their petitions.  the foster has begun an email campaign asking their low dollar donors to recommit for the special election or to bring in a new donor to our campaign.  

outlook

if the first posts in this series was designed to lay a foundation, this next group will be focused on looking at the fundamentals in this race.  like blocking and tackling decide football games, the fundamentals decide elections.  there are five fundamentals that are thought to be decisive in the outcome of elections:

1. the candidates

2. money

3. the environment (deciding factors that campaigns can’t change)

4. the climate (deciding factors that campaigns can influence)

5. their organizations

probably the biggest factor right now in this race is the political environment.  and the most important environmental factor is the upcoming special election.  the fact that the special election is a month away from the special primary focuses all attention on this question: who scales up fastest?  the campaigns have six weeks to identify supporters and then educate them on voting twice for them on the same ballot (once for the general election and again for the special election).  the campaigns already lost a week or so because they had to circulate petitions (again) for the special election.  christmas and new year’s will cost them some more time.  this is even more true for the laesch campaign (and possibly stein’s), since they are so dependent on volunteer expertise.  the foster campaign staff will undoubtedly work the same amount during that week.  (i worked on christmas day last year, so i sympathize.)

one of the questions asked of the campaigns dealt with their candidates.  the laesch campaign was unable to participate, since they are currently flooded with questionaires that they are working on.  still no word whatsoever from the serra campaign.

the stein campaign argues:

we have the best candidate because our candidate represents the district best.  Jotham may be a lawyer but at one point he was a cabby and struggling to make it through college.  On the other hand he has done fairly well in life and represents that portion of the population of this district too.  So he has seen both ends of the spectrum.  Also Jotham at least knows what the issues are, one of the candidates goes way to far to the left for this district, and the other well he doesn’t like to talk issues he just throws money at the problem of winning a primary.  The other thing is, I’m willing to bet that jotham has knocked on more doors and spoken one on one with more voters then the other two.

Jotham speaks so well to voters on the issues.  Jotham has been the first to stand on a lot of issues that the other two guys have been trying to make hay out of.  Jotham was the first to say he was against an ID card, Laesch had a press release about how he was against them.  Foster came out against global warming and for renewable fuels, I hate to say it but Jotham has been talking about that since the beginning and with a better plan then Foster’s that everyone can benefit from.  I believe if folks could have a sit down chat with Jotham on the issues they would support him.

foster’s campaign chimes in:

Bill Foster is the only candidate with deep roots in the community, a background of solving problems that appeals to voters and the only candidate with the resources to compete against entrenched Washington Republicans who will fight like hell to save this seat.

He has spent a lifetime changing institutions for the better and when he puts his mind to it, he has always met with remarkable success.  When Bill worked on integrated circuits, he first learned how to make and design integrated circuits so he could lead a team of designers.  When Bill entered politics, he did it as an activist in a campaign that had little chance of succeeding.  He is the only candidate who knows how to put together a winning team.

they further argue:

That as a scientist and a businessman Bill is a refreshing change of pace from the usual politician.  He makes decisions based on facts, not the fictional reality that partisanship demands.  He also is uniquely able to make a huge impact on technical areas like energy policy because he can tell you if something can work in the lab and in the business plan.

all in all, the three main candidates in this race all come with flaws.  some argue that foster is charisma-challenged and too impressed by his intelligence, others believe that laesch has a messianic complex, and stein is too policy-focused and that hasn’t yet caught on (it’s late, there’s only a little time left to do so).  i’d call any comparison of these three candidates a draw — a gambler might say, pick ’em — but the contrast with il-10, where you have two high-energy, dynamic candidates couldn’t be more stark.

does this matter?  well, yeah.  in part, because voters are starting to feel the pain.  the foster campaign notes that:

Voters are still talking about all the problems we need to solve, especially ending the war.  Their newest concern is the nervousness about the economic situation in the US because of the mortgage crisis.

the stein campaign observes some differentiation in the concerns of the district:

In a place like Aurora, their worried about Jobs and the current housing mess.  In a place like Geneva, their worried about more taxes.  Out west in a place like Geneseo, its jobs.  A lot of the people out west work in places like Davenport and Moline, that’s outside the district, and are worried about places like John Deere and the Arsenal and Alcoa.  Currently there are no problems, but there are rumors that John Deere will be moving their HQ out of the Quad Cities.  Which makes people fear that maybe the second most recognized american symbol in the world after coke will start moving jobs overseas slso.

the political climate is changing, and only those campaigns who maintain comprehensive contact with the electorate will be able to respond to those changes.  there is no question that the laesch campaign has maintained contact with the netroots.  but it doesn’t appear that they have the same close relationship with the electorate.  the momentum from being the 2006 candidate was squandered (partially, perhaps even majorly, because laesch took time to get married).  the fact that they didn’t have the most signatures, or raised the most, even in the small dollar category, is evidence of this.

the point on money has already been made.  foster has not only committed his own resources, he’s raising money, significantly from new sources.  stein has made the effort, and we will see how that’s going on his next report.  laesch has an extraordinary burn rate; it’s a good thing that he’s got signs left over and volunteers committed to helping his campaign.

which leaves their organizations.  in a sense, this isn’t just about their organizations, but their potential to scale up.  the laesch campaign seems to recognize that they are it, with “little or no help expected from the national or state Democratic Party.”  given their organizational structure, they may not be able to handle a massive influx of assistance, even if they received it.

the stein campaign still suffers from the lack of a campaign manager, someone who conducts the chorus, as it were.  stein has a capable staff, but not enough of it (especially for the special election).  no one doubts that jotham has worked hard as a candidate — he’s raised the money to demonstrate that — but he’ll need more people working hard if he’s going to win a special election.

in a way, the stein campaign recognizes that they have to scale up.  they say that their keys for winning are:

Talking to the voters, putting a good field plan for the final

stretch into place.  Focusing our message so that our supporters know they

can vote twice for our candidate.

good field plan requires lots of leadership and experienced captains.

foster’s campaign is clearly the most scaleable.  in fact, scaleability seems to have been part of the plan from the very beginning.  they have been taking on staff and apparently training volunteers.  the campaign has plans to integrate local and state democrats into their gotv efforts after the primary is decided.  it is this inherent scaleability that gives foster not only the best chance to win the special primary, but a decent shot at taking the seat blue.

how can this be?  laesch’s supporters continue to trumpet his stands on the issues and believe that this will deliver him to victory.  the problem with that is that voters don’t even know laesch’s name, let alone his stands on the issues — and that assumes that voters in the 14th would prefer laesch’s stands to the other candidates.  laesch has neither the money nor the organization to effectively deliver his message to the electorate.  activists and ideologues may focus on issues and where candidates stand, but voters rarely do.  voters may become vaguely aware of a congressional candidate’s message, but they have neither the time nor inclination to go much beyond that.  in the end, the perceived advantage that laesch had — that he had run before — is minimized by the fact that his name recognition was in the high thirties among the general electorate, and mid-40s for democratic voters.  he has better name recognition now, before foster’s and stein’s mail starts to drop.  but those numbers don’t make him secure from the challenge.  by contrast, seals’ name recognition is almost double laesch’s.

the message that voters will see this election follows the money and the organization.  in both these areas, foster’s campaign has been out front.

each race has a lens through which a political campaign can be viewed.  in the il-03 race, the lens is the emergent scandal surrounding dan lipinski and whether any challenger can coalesce their social and political networks before the bombardment of advertising begins.  in the il-14 race, that lens is the concurrent special election.

denny hastert’s resignation announcement last night sets up a special election, who’s primary most likely will be conducted concurrently with the primary for the november 2008 general election.  in several ways, this sets back campaigns, because they basically have to start all over again.  illinois’ election laws are (from my perspective) quite arcane.  by law, there was no vacancy until hastert’s resignation takes effect.  “Dan White, executive director of the State Board of Elections, said he had yet to receive notice of Hastert’s resignation.”  one assumes that this will come today.  this begins the countdown.  the governor has to call an election within 120 days of the vacancy for both the primary and the “general” (it’s easier to call it a special election, and i will) elections.  the governor has five days to set a date for these two elections; the primary is expected to coincide with the february 5 primary in illiois.  apparently, as bill pascoe writes, “NO election (including a primary election) can take place fewer than 50 days after the creation of the vacancy.”

But Illinois law also sets periods for collecting signatures, for filing candidacies, and for challenging candidacies. It’s my understanding that when you add up these discrete periods, you end up with a time frame of 50-57 days as a minimum requirement before ANY election — including a primary election — could be held.

cq notes, though:

The state board of elections prefers that there be at least 72 days between the day the governor sets the special general election and when the special primary election is held, to allow for enough time to prepare. That 72-day window is not binding in state law, though, and the state elections board could oversee the election under a more compressed timetable if the governor so mandated.

The Illinois election code does require, though, that the candidacy filing period for a special congressional election occur 50 to 57 days before the special primary election.

to me, the really interesting thing about this illinois review article (right-wing blog) was the admission by “one former State Board of Elections counsel [who] said the fact is no one really knows yet how to handle a special election at the same time a primary is being conducted.  They are two completely different elections, and demand two different sets of signature petitions.  But the state code doesn’t make the procedure clear.”  and there’s the rub.  no one really knows how to handle a special election at the same time as a regular (primary) election.

there is the thought that this special election — the first for congress in 2008 — will provide a few hints of voters’ overall direction for the upcoming national campaigns, perhaps a bellweather.

The Democrats, in their 2006 upsurge, captured several House seats in districts that traditionally have favored Republicans. The contest in the 14th District – where Hastert has long dominated House races and where President Bush took 55 percent of the vote in 2004 – may test whether the Democrats continue to have the momentum to put even more Republican seats into play, or whether the GOP position has stabilized to some degree.

perhaps.  but this is unknown territory, and one that requires both the candidates and their campaigns to work harder, raise more money, and push their supporters harder:

The dual nature of the campaigning – for the special election and the regular primary – could become costly for candidates who will be forced to intensify their efforts since it is unlikely that a primary voter would vote for two separate candidates for the same office to cover different time spans.

this isn’t unheard of (there are examples where people are on the ballot for two different things, such as a party office and a government office), but the 14th congressional district doesn’t really have a democratic party organization that one can rely on to get this across to voters.

the race for the open seat in il-14 is one of the most covered campaigns in illinois.  there’s an entire blog dedicated to it (although it came out of the 2006 campaign and has a decided laesch p.o.v.).  hiram wurf continues to cover the race from a few miles away.  aaron krager has put together a fine analysis of the race.  

as i mentioned above, in a real sense, the campaigns must start over.  they must pass petitions again, and mobilize volunteers to circulate petitions rather than persuade voters or identify supporters.  the complexity of one’s campaign organization is increased.  the advantage goes to the candidate and/or campaign that can best handle this increasing complexity — who can, in a phrase, do two or more things at once.  and there’s a clear benefit to those who have done this before.

many believe that this benefits john laesch, who was the 2006 democratic nominee.  laesch does have the support of the netroots — especially the netroots outside of illinois.  he also has the benefit of having spent time in every corner of the district.  if the electorate is not that familiar with john, the district’s political activists are.  he enjoys the support of many of them.  he is apparently the first in the race to get a union or special interest group endorsement.

one thing that the laesch campaign has excelled at is getting earned media (they pretty much have to), and they are doing this again.  they’ve been good about using youtube in the same way, including, for example, putting up video of press conferences that may not have been attended by the press.  (you can also find debate footage at the friends of laesch youtube page.)

the consensus front runner in this race appears to be bill foster.  for a first time candidate, foster entered the race remarkably prepared.  in 2006, foster took off ten months to volunteer for patrick murphy’s successful run for congress, and he hews closely to the positions that propelled murphy to election.  but probably the biggest advantage that foster brings into this race — and perhaps why he’s perceived as the front runner — is that he knows, and is prepared to do, what it takes to win a seat in congress.  open seats for congress are more competitive and more driven by money.  congressional quarterly’s CQ Politics’ Top 10: Money Leaders in Open-Seat House Races names foster as one of the most aggressive candidates raising money for an open seat in congress — along with two of the republicans running for the seat.  david wasserman, an editor at the highly regarded cook political report, predicts that winning this seat will cost at least $2 million.

foster has convinced others that he’s serious about winning this seat.  his endorsement page not only includes early indicators like civic action, but illinois behemoths like dan hynes (state comptroller) and leading illinois progressives like alexi giannoulias (state treasurer and obama ally).  and it’s gotten him into the candidate’s boot camp.

foster would like to make this race “a national referendum on the policies of George Bush,” but some progressives want to make it a referendum on bill foster.  i guess they identify foster as the front runner, too.  much has been made of foster’s willingness to caucus with the blue dog democrats, and his focus on fiscal responsibility.  others simply object to the presence of a self-funder — especially since their favored candidate isn’t raising that much money.  this hand-wringing about a serious candidate in a district with a pvi of +5 R forced chris bowers to admit, “it is important to note that Blue Dogs and Bush Dogs are not the same thing… To put it one way, a Patrick Muphy Blue Dog is the sort of Blue Dog to whom I can provide enthusiastic, activist support for Congress.”

what some may not see is that foster is bringing new people into the democratic process and, presumably, into the democratic fold.  that should be something that progressives support.  “More than 80 percent of Foster’s donors are first-time donors, and nearly three-quarters are scientists like Foster, a former Fermilab physicist.”  he’s expanding the base in an area that is decidedly red, “The Foster campaign reported 680 contributors in the third quarter filing period,” with a large number saying that they were first time contributors.  and he’s doing it based on issues that progressives support: “The first, second and third issue is Iraq,” foster says.

you can see this focus in the second of foster’s youtube videos, Bill Foster: We Must Change Course in Iraq.  foster’s youtube page also sports a biography video.  foster’s campaign also hosts a blog, has a facebook group and a flickr page.  and, as i was writing this, foster’s first television ad went up.

jotham stein was first in the race and has been making the rounds building support.  he was the first candidate to hire staff, and has been dedicated to raising the money he needs to compete.  his website is the only one to have a spanish version, which is interesting since approximately 20% of the district is hispanic.  the numbers are far higher for democrats in the district.

early on in his run, stein used former candidate christine cegelis to guide him through the process of running for office.  his background in the law and policy has given him the basis for the most extensive issues proposals of the democrats running.  stein says,

I know I can do much better. In this campaign, I will offer real solutions to many of the real problems facing our country. From defeating global warming, to having a strong national defense, to more jobs for our district, to guaranteeing food and health care to our kids, I am taking a stand.

along with the usual facebook page, stein adds a myspace and he’s taken advantage of the democratic party’s partybuilder tools.

joe serra entered the race last.  he comes at the race from a different position.  serra says, “I am running because I feel that the elected officials in Congress today are not getting the peoples business done. I am running to rebuild our greatest asset – our military.”  unique among the candidates, serra has applied for endorsement by democracy for america, which requires that you fill out their simple questionnaire.

stein’s field director noted that “hastert just threw a wrench into a lot of field programs out there.”  he observed that most people are still focused on the presidential campaigns, and they are undoubtedly not aware of the fact that they will face three different elections in the next 120 days.  needless to say, few understand that the campaigns again have to collect 873 signatures to get their candidates on the (special election) ballot.  how these four campaigns interact with the electorate over that time will be key to their success.

the foster campaign has been concentrating on their mailings and phone banking.  they prepared to run in the special election all along, they tell me.  the moment hastert stepped down, the campaign emailed its supporters and they got immediate replies, i am told.  their focus now, as expected, would be to prepare for another round of passing petitions.  their campaign office (1035 E State St, Suite J, Geneva) has been a hub of activity and potential volunteers are asked to email meredith@foster08.com to find out more.

the foster campaign is also speeding up the hiring of additional staff in preparation for the special election.  both the foster and the stein campaigns had about two dozen people circulating petitions for them for the regular primary, as well as the candidates and members of their families.  given the compressed nature of this next run (about three weeks to pass petitions), they will probably need double that.

the stein campaign has been doing coffees and door-to-door of late, working out of their campaign headquarters at 115 campbell in geneva.  they understand that a “grassroots movement is needed,” that this period is all about educating the public.  they are re-focusing on “getting jotham on the ballot” for the special election, although no specific plans had been made yet.  stein’s field director admits that “people are going to be confused” by all this and they’ve made plans to make the process a little easier.  that includes taking advantage of an already planned large event and getting people involved at that point.  but they “can’t comment on specific plans for a special election right now.”

the volunteer who answered the phone at the laesch campaign conveyed the location of their campaign offices at 46 w downer place in aurora, but didn’t feel comfortable answering more questions.  she passed the message along, but i didn’t get a call back from them.

efforts to reach joe serra were not effective.