Month: January 2008

Back in May, former Hamilton County Commissioner Phil Heimlich (yes, from that Heimlich family, hence the awful pun in the headline) said he’d run against Evel Knievel Mean Jean Schmidt in the OH-02 Republican primary.

Democrats rejoiced at the thought of a bloody internecine war – and then rejoiced again last month when yet another GOPer, state Rep. Todd Brinkman, also jumped into the fray. What better way to ensure Schmidty’s survival than a fractured, multi-way primary?

On Wednesday, though, Heimlich bitterly acknowledged this possibility and decided to bail for his own warped version of the greater good:

“Mr. Brinkman’s candidacy serves no purpose other than to assure Rep. Schmidt’s renomination,” Heimlich said in the news release. “There is no reason to put the Republican Party through a tough primary battle when victory isn’t possible.”

However, I’m not so sure this is necessarily a bad development. Heimlich had actually out-raised Schmidt and conceivably could have chalked up a narrow plurality win with a third candidate in the race, assuming the anti-Schmidt vote were big enough to drive the incumbent below, say, 40%.

But Brinkman now has to win outright, and he’s only been in the game for six weeks. What’s more, Ohio has one of the earliest primaries in the country – it’s fast approaching on March 4th. Whereas Heimlich had been campaigning for the better part of a year, Brinkman will have less than three months to attempt his coup.

Sure, it’s conceivable that the local establishment will rally behind Brinkman in the short time left, but what we’ve seen so far suggests it’s not likely. The same Enquirer article notes:

Friday night, the Hamilton County Republican Party’s executive committee passed over two Hamilton County Republicans – Heimlich and Brinkman – to endorse Schmidt, of Clermont County. Schmidt was the favorite of 69 members, while Heimlich had 33 votes and Brinkman, five.

If the GOP powers-that-be (at least in Hamilton County, one of seven that make up the district) were going to pick an anti-Schmidt, they’d probably already have done so.

Given that Schmidt took under 48% in her hotly-contested primary in 2006, I won’t rule anything out. But Brinkman will have to move fast and raise a lot of money to out-hustle Schmidt. Like her sartorial idol Mr. Knievel, Mean Jean has already defied (political) death more than a few times. She may have another jump in her still.

again, the most important news is that early voting has begun.  for those who live in illinois’ 10th congressional district, the ballot positions for the primary election are:

Daniel J. Seals

Jay K. Footlik

only dan seals completed the voter guide question.  his response notes:

After a short 11-month campaign and a lot of hard work, Dan shocked the pundits and incumbent Mark Kirk by winning 47 percent in the election. Dan is vying for the seat again in 2008, and this time with even more support.

the financial disclosure reports are out.  seals reports a healthy “quarter:”

Total Contributions

Qtr: $329,731.01

Tot: $904,762.27

Total Operating Expenditures

Qtr: $199,646.21

Tot: $383,183.77

CoH: $627167.58

footlik’s report confirms what people are seeing on the ground:

Total Contributions

Qtr: $133,433.08

Tot: $422,308.08

Total Operating Expenditures

Qtr: $414,415.88

Tot: $480,341.28

CoH: $133,351.09

the saddest thing is, despite footlik’s considerable drop-off in donations, he still managed to raise in the 4th quarter pretty much what john laesch raised in an entire year.

being newspaper endorsement season, endorsements lead the news in this race, too.  seals has swept these: he got the pioneer press endorsement, the daily herald endorsement as well as the chicago tribune’s:

Seals gets the edge, based on a better grasp of local issues and concerns. He is endorsed.

the sun-times endorsement was more expansive:

Seals our choice in the 10th District

Democratic voters in Illinois’ 10th Congressional District on Chicago’s North Shore should consider themselves lucky.

Two strong candidates are running in the Feb. 5 primary, vying for the chance to take on Republican incumbent Rep. Mark Kirk, who is running unopposed.

[…]

But the endorsement goes to Seals, who has significantly more local support than Footlik. We like his well-rounded background, including an international economics master’s degree, fluency in Japanese and a stint working for the federal government in Washington.

He also has an MBA and worked as director of marketing at GE Capital, experiences we hope prove helpful in national economic matters. He is the son of former Chicago Bears guard George Seals and a social worker.

Several of Seals’ policy ideas are more fleshed out than Footlik’s, particularly on the economy and immigration reform, including a push for Mexico to do more to control the flow of immigrants and boost its own economy.

Seals also has the best chance to defeat Kirk.

jay did get another endorsement that went last time to dan seals, that of the jewish political alliance of illinois.  dan, otoh, got dick durbin’s endorsement again.  durbin noted, as reported by the sun-times:

“If Dan Seals were not the candidate, Jay would be a very interesting choice,” Durbin said. “But Dan has been battle-tested. He knows the district inside and out. His opponent does not have that kind of experience.”

the chicago tribune used this quote:

“I think he’s one of our strongest congressional candidates in the country, and he proved it last time,” Durbin said. “He came very close, and I think he deserves another chance at it. I think he’s battle-tested and I’m happy to support his candidacy.”

the journal also covered durbin’s endorsement of seals.

chicago public radio covered the race.  the chicago tribune noted that the difference in name recognition may be the biggest difference between footlik and seals.  the ap story observes that our economic difficulties is of great concern even in illinois’ wealthiest congressional district.

the debates between footlik and seals got more attention.  the 10th dems convention got coverage, as well, with a seals’ slant here and here.  seals got 180 votes in the straw poll while footlik received 44 votes.  this margin, you might remember, reflects the same margin found in seals’ internal poll.  and these are democratic activists — all of whom were likely to be aware, at least, of footlik’s candidacy.

if you noticed, these roundups have a specific format.  the first section is basically the news reported by the mainstream media.  the second section i call, what’s new.  this is the segment were i talk about the blogs and websites, etc.  skokie talk, a website for jay’s hometown of skokie (in the 9th CD represented by jan schakowsky) notes this good news for jay:

Footlik currently lives in Buffalo Grove with his wife and daughter. He’s expecting another daughter in February.

congratulations, jay.  i’m sure i speak for many people when i say that.

jta, a jewish news service, has increased it’s coverage of this race dramatically.  it now has a reporter on the ground (jacob berkman).  it reports footlik’s charges about dan’s position at northwestern, about footlik’s “jewish credentials,” how some were offended by footlik’s humor and about how much the footlik-seals matchup mirrors obama and hillary.  the latter write-up was called by archpundit a good overview:

My read is that Jay is a great guy and a good candidate, but given Seals is well liked by Democrats in the District and most understand you need to run twice to win, most of the reasons for supporting Jay aren’t catching with people. Jay’s campaign would argue he’s stronger in a general, but I’m not sure that the greater burden of building up name recognition wouldn’t make it just as difficult. Last time, it was a seven point difference with virtually no national help for Dan.

I like Jay and would like to see him run for something another time, but I don’t see a compelling case as to why Seals shouldn’t get a second shot given how well he did without national support last time.

it’s obvious that footlik made a valiant effort, and he clearly has tremendous political talent.  i’m pretty critical of “policy wonks,” just because i’ve had to deal with the frustrations that voters have trying to understand them.

ellen’s 10th CD blog continues to be the leader in coverage of this race.  she live blogged the lwv debate in arlington heights, covered a meet and greet for seals the next day, attended the durbin endorsement, live blogged the 10th dems convention, reported the straw poll results, noted the cpr story and broke the 21st century dems’ endorsement of seals.

these two campaigns are revving up towards election day.  the seals campaign reports that:

Voters are responding enthusiastically to Dan’s message of bringing wholesale change to Washington. On issues like the war, healthcare, and the economy, they are ready for a new direction.

Dan’s message is (and has always been) that it’s time for a change in the course of our country and the way business is done in Washington.

it’s difficult for me to see how footlik pulls this out, but what i will be looking at when the election returns come in is whether footlik is able to win the dominant jewish areas in the district (highland park, glencoe, buffalo grove).  what i want to test is whether jay’s message that he would do much better against kirk resonates in that community.  if jay wins these areas, it would signal that dan has some work to do to strengthen his position among jewish voters.

this race hasn’t turned out to be as heated as i feared or as competitive as i thought possible.  in the end, democrats in the 10th seem satisfied with the leader they recruited in 2006 to beat mark kirk.  this will be the final IL-10th roundup, not because there won’t be more news, but because it’s increasingly apparent this one has been decided…

The East Oregonian reviews last Tuesday night’s Oregon Democratic Senate primary debate, and although they describe it as a “low key affair” with a lot of agreement between the candidates on policy, they give the edge to Steve Novick for style.

They describe Merkley as coming off “smug … there was a definite lack of emotion in his responses.” By contrast, they call Novick’s answers “spontaneous and less stilted … for those watching closely, it’s apparent he analyzes and thinks quickly on his feet.”

With so little difference in substance, style may influence some voters. And the edge from the first debate seemed – let’s repeat that, seemed – to favor Novick.

That’s because while Merkley seemed confident, he also came off as, well, a bit smug. He kept his focus just above the audience of potential voters. His answers seemed almost memorized from a script, a script closely resembling his thoughtful position statements on his campaign’s Web site. He only glanced at Novick once throughout the debate. There was a definite lack of emotion in his responses, although there also was a momentary rise in feeling when he talked about health care and education.

[snip]

By comparison, Novick noticeably turned and listened intently whenever one of the other three candidates were responding to the questions the East Oregonian news staff posed. While his answers weren’t overflowing with emotion either, at least they seemed spontaneous and less stilted.

However, he did miss an opportunity to separate his candidacy from Merkley’s. Novick didn’t emphasize distinctions of different solutions to the problems facing Oregon and our great nation. But for those watching closely, it’s apparent he analyzes and thinks quickly on his feet.

[snip]

Maybe, in the end, the answer for the lack of verbal fisticuffs came from Novick.

“We’re all good Democrats here,” he said.

I am proud to have received the enthusiastic endorsement of the Texas AFL-CIO and other Labor groups representing more than 230,000 working men and women across the state.

Every progressive movement in our nation’s modern history has come about because of Organized Labor’s courage and steadfast refusal to take its eye off the ball — protecting the health and well-being of the great American middle class.

From civil rights to voting rights, from women’s rights to workers’ rights, from consumer protection to environmental protection, Labor has moved us forward and made us the economic and moral force we are.

The 8-hour day, the 40-hour week, maternity leave, the right to take time off to care for a loved one — all of it is a direct result of labor’s willingness to fight for the ordinary families who work hard, play by the rules, and deserve an equal opportunity to live a life of dignity.

At this time in our history, when each of these rights is under sustained attack, Labor’s endorsement is especially meaningful.

Let’s make it central to our campaign to make a fresh start, to reignite the spirit and recapture the vitality of a nation that used to export its values, not just its jobs.

On March 4, I hope you will take advantage of another right Labor has given us — time off to vote.

http://www.dangrantforcongress…

Another one drops?

Another area congressman who narrowly won reelection in 2006 is Randy Kuhl, a Republican from Hammondsport, Steuben County. He represents the 29th district, which covers Monroe County’s southeastern suburbs.

A Kuhl spokeswoman said today he had not decided whether he would run for reelection.

On balance, I’d say this would likely be a slightly net negative for Democratic challenger Eric Massa.  Kuhl sucks, and a stronger local Republican might have a better shot at retaining this R+5.2 district.

Which GOP crumb-bum is going to strap on the golden parachute next?

UPDATE (James Hell): Ding ding ding!  It’s Dave Weldon! (FL-15, R+4.1):

Rep. Dave Weldon (R-Fla.) announced Friday that he will retire from Congress at the end of this session, citing a desire to return to his medical practice.

…

Weldon, 54, is a seven-term lawmaker who sits on the House Appropriations Committee.

…

President Bush won Weldon’s district in 2004 with 57 percent of the vote, compared to 43 percent for Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.).

P.S. (David): Dan Maffei added to DCCC’s Red-to-Blue list. I’m very glad to see this.

We forgot to do this last week, so here are two weeks’ worth of great diaries:

• Plf515 has been absolutely on fire, bringing us no fewer than eight roundups covering twenty-four states: IN & NM, NC & NE, CA, AR, OR, IA, ME & UT, MT, ID, MO, SD & SC, TN, AL & NJ, VA, ND & GA, and FL, CT & MI. Sea to shining sea!
• Glacial Erratic updates us on an Iraq war vet, Bill Cahir, who has filed for the open-seat race in PA-05.
• Meanwhile, robert.harding keeps us in the loop on the latest with candidate Jon Powers, running against crumb-bum Tom Reynolds up in NY-26.
• Down South, skywrnchsr509 surveys the field in Mississippi, where the filing deadline has recently pass and where both GOP-held House seats are now open.
• RBH explores what might happen if MO-09 opens up, should GOP Rep. Kenny Huslhof run for governor.
• Sean takes a look at KY-03, where there’s talk of GOP failure Anne Northup trying to revive from the dead after losing two elections in two years.
• The redoubtable Benawu provides a new update on the House race filing situation.
• And last but certainly not least, Dean Barker, a great friend of SSP’s, tell us about the new wingnut challenger who has emerged to take on Paul Hodes in NH-02 – and utterly eviscerates her in the process.

In a district where the vast majority of local elected officials are Democrats, it appears that the prospect of the first open seat since 1976 isn’t going to be a wasted opportunity.

Roll Call reports (via the Columbia Tribune Politics Blog):

A Democratic source in that state said “credible Democrats will emerge” to run for Congress should Hulshof throw his hat into the wide-open gubernatorial race. Such a scenario may complicate state Rep. Judy Baker’s (D) already slim chances, while offering Democrats the best shot at winning with possible candidates such as former Lt. Gov. Joe Maxwell (D) and former state Speaker Steve Gaw (D).

“EMILY’s List would think [Baker’s] done a noble enough job that they’d stay with her, [but] local politicos would abandon her in droves if Maxwell got in,” the Democratic source said. “There’s s a general feeling, ‘God love her for trying to take on Kenny,’ but she’s probably not a great fit for that district.”

The source added: “Maxwell and Gaw are probably better for the cultural leanings of that district.”

So, the prospects?

I say that Maxwell would be a pretty strong favorite to win a primary. He carried the district easily in his last primary (Lt. Governors primary in 2000). He has a strong base in the northern part of the district, and enough prestige to do well in Columbia. Although Maxwell is someone who may still choose to stay out of this race due to his wife (he chose not to run for re-election in 2004 due to his wife’s health)

Steve Gaw would also be formidable to a degree. Gaw also ran statewide in 2000, and lost to Matt Blunt for Secretary of State.

The possibility of the first open seat primary in Northeast Missouri since 1976 is attracting quite a bit of attention.

In 1976, the Democratic primary had 11 candidates and was won by Harold Volkmer of Hannibal with 34.8% (Joe Frappier beat future state senator David Doctorian on the Republican side)

In 1964, the Democratic primary had 16 candidates and was won by William Hungate with 17.65% of the vote. The Republicans had four candidates that year.

But these were primaries back in the days that having an ultradivided August primary wasn’t considered a bad thing. And these were primaries when there was a strong Northeast Missouri base for Democrats in general elections.

How this all shapes out depends on the candidates. But, MO-09 might be on the board this fall.

Can you believe that the last time we took stock of the open seat situation in the House of Representatives was on November 10th? With news of the shocking retirement of GOP Rep. Jim Walsh leaking today, it’s time to take another look. A lot has changed on the House scene since November, with the retirements of Reps. McCrery, Peterson, Ferguson, Doolittle, Lantos and of course, Walsh; the resignations of Reps. Baker and Wicker; and the death of Rep. Julia Carson.

Following the format of the previous installments in this series, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

That adds up to a whopping 24 House retirements or resignations for Republicans. It should be noted that at this point in the 2006, there were only 13 announced retirements by GOP House incumbents. February and March still offer some time for more House crumb-bums to cut their political careers mercifully short, and I expect that a few will follow the recent example of Reps. McCrery, Baker, and Walsh. Perhaps a few of their names might even be found in the list below…

You may have noticed that I included crumb-bum Bill Young, despite the Congressman’s recent signals that he’ll run again. I suspect that old Bill has a trick up his sleeve, and might surprise us by retiring after the filing deadline closes, leaving his wife or some other hand-picked successor to have a cakewalk election. In short: I don’t trust this jerk. He’s staying on the list.

If 2007 was a year of shocking Republican retirements, 2008 appears to be offering its own share of stunners.  The latest?  The upcoming retirement of Rep. Jim Walsh:

Republican Rep. Jim Walsh of New York is expected to announce his retirement soon, according to a GOP aide familiar with the decision, giving Democrats another pick-up opportunity following a wave of Republican retirements this cycle.

The veteran appropriator had a tough reelection fight in 2006 and was expected to face another challenge in the fall.

This is huge, huge news, and an incredible break for Democratic challenger Dan Maffei.  With an open seat on the table, he’s in prime position to pick up this D+3.4 district.

Holy hell.  Will there be any Republicans left in Congress to turn the lights off at the end of the day?