KY Deadline

Kentucky’s filing deadline is Tuesday January 29.  As of 2 PM (EST) on January 28, Democrats have filed for four of the state’s six House seats and for the US Senate seat.  Republicans have filed for all six seats.

Democratic candidates so far are incumbents John Yarmuth (KY-3) and Ben Chandler (KY-6) and challengers David Boswell (KY-2) and Michael Kelley (KY-4).  Kenneth Stepp, who was considered a likely House candidate in disrict 5 is running for the US Senate along with Andrew Horne, David L. Williams, and Michael Cassaro.

The two House seats without a listed Democratic challenger are KY-1 (Edward Whitfield, PVI of R+10.74) and KY-5 (Hal Rogers, PVI of R+8.79).  Whitfield was first elected in 1994 and has been re-elected easily ever since.  Rogers has sailed through since first elected in 1980.  Kentucky’s filing fee is $500.  Additional candidates are expected to file (the Louisville Courier-Journal says that Ann Northrup has decided to challenge John Yarmuth for the seat she lost in 2006; a candidate for KY-1 was rumored on Politics1.  No one has filed, though.

PA-05: Meet the Democrats

Cross-posted from dKos

We are up to 4 declared Democratic candidates in the hunt for the soon-to-be open 5th district seat. 2 of these candidates have declared in the last week, and I will rehash some of what I’ve written on the other 2 candidates as well, so that it is all in one place.

The latest person to enter the race (and the only female of all 12 candidates for the seat) is Lycoming College education professor, Darcy Gustafson. The CDT has coverage of the race and Gustafson’s announcement:

Patton Township Democrat and Lycoming College education professor Darcy Gustafson said Saturday she is circulating nomination petitions for the 5th congressional district seat and “testing the waters” before committing to the race.

“I would like to be the best candidate I can be,” she said from Pittsburgh, where she has enrolled in a course for political candidates. “If I’m not the winner in the primary, I want to be the best help I can be to whoever wins.”

At the end of last week, Kossack FISG brought us the press release announcing Mark McCracken’s entry into the race. McCracken is currently serving his second term as Clearfield County Commisioner. He was re-elected in 2007 with the most votes of the 4 candidates running. The other 2 spots went to Republicans. He serves on numerous county and regional boards and such, which you can see in his press release. Before being elected County Commissioner, he served 10 years on the Clearfield Area School Board. Clearfield County is a large, mostly rural county of roughly 83,000 people, and includes the city of Dubois. More about him from his press release:

Before entering politics, Mr. McCracken worked in the computer and information technology field from 1983 to 1988 with North American Refractories Engineering Department in Curwensville, PA and served as Director of Information Technology for Clearfield County Government from 1988 to 2004.

In announcing his candidacy McCracken said “I believe I have the experience necessary to serve this vast rural district in north central Pennsylvania. As county commissioner, everyday I deal directly with important issues facing all counties in the district including economic development and job creation, balancing budgets, controlling health care costs and dealing with constituent issues. I also work on a regular basis with officials from all levels of government including the state and federal.”

. . snip . .

Mr. McCracken also serves as chairman of the Northern Counties Heath Insurance Purchasing Cooperative Board. This board was organized in 2005 through the efforts of Commissioner McCracken working with commissioners in Clinton and McKean counties to form a multi-county health insurance purchasing co-op and create a self insured pool account. Participation in the co-op is up to 9 county governments and member counties are bringing health insurance costs under control which is saving tax dollars.

Here is what I’ve written on the other 2 candidates previously:

3-term Lock Haven Mayor Richard Vilello, a building inspector,  ran unopposed in the 2007 and 2003 elections for mayor. He was appointed in 2007 by Rendell as one of 3 co-chairs of The Governors Advisory Council on Rural Affairs, and also served on that body at least in some capacity going back to 2004. In addition, Vilello serves as the Central District Officer for the Pennsylvania League of Cities and Municipalities. I haven’t found anything about his stances on the issues specifically. In his announcement, he played up infrastructure issues:

“I think it’s time to send someone with local experience and quit wasting money,” he said. “Every day in the paper you read about millions and billions of dollars for this and that project, for fixing infrastructure all around the world, and we’re not fixing our own infrastructure.

“The local schools get stuck with No Child Left Behind, and the people who pass laws have never been in a school except when they sat behind a desk.

“The health care system is a mess and rural health care always gets the short end of the stick,” he added.

Journalist and 2-tour Iraq vet, Bill Cahir, has made some worrisome statements about “energy independence” and Iraq.

Like Peterson, Cahir said he also is an advocate of alternative energy sources.

“We need to invest more resources in domestic oil exploration. I also am a big supporter of nuclear power as a means of generating electricity,” he said.

Anyone who knows anything about Peterson knows that to say he was an “advocate of alternative energy sources” is a sick joke. Drilling and digging anywhere and everywhere – that’s what Peterson supported. I’m hoping Cahir was only trying to speak well of the retiring Peterson in this instance – and that he simply didn’t mention real alternative energies that he also supports.

On to Iraq:

“The Democrats in Congress don’t have the votes to override the president on this issue. But we have to look at the fact that we now have a number of things going our way in Iraq,” he said. “The surge (in U.S. military personnel) is going to run its course by July. The next president and the next congress will inherit Operation Iraqi Freedom.”

“As a two-tour veteran, I think I have ideas on where to go next with that mission. As a Marine reservist, I’m not going to criticize the commander-in-chief — I support the mission.

“We need to capitalize on the security gains we’ve made (in Iraq), rather than any kind of a rapid withdrawal. We need to honor the alliances we’ve developed with the Sunni sheiks who are supporting us, and take a look at what the sensible policies are right now,” Cahir said.

But there are some definite positives to Cahir as well:

Besides his military experience, Cahir enters the race with the most knowledge and experience on Capitol Hill of any of the candidates who have announced or who are considering the seat.

Before his career in journalism, which included writing for the Lebanon Daily News, Hanover Evening Sun, York Dispatch and newspapers in New Jersey and New York, Cahir worked as a staff assistant to Senate Labor and Human Resources Committee from 1990 to 1993, and as a staff assistant on health care issues for former U.S. Sen. Harris Wofford, D-Pa., from August 1993 until he left office in January 1995.

He was part of Sen. Edward Kennedy’s, D-Mass., labor and economic policy team that helped pass the Family and Medical Leave Act and other laws.

And finally, to make a long diary even longer, Cahir, McCracken and Vilello have been making the rounds at county Democratic meetings. The CDT covers the Centre County meeting that happened Saturday:

A two-tour Iraq War veteran, Cahir (pronounced care) said the United States can’t quit Iraq overnight and leave the security of U.S. allies such as Saudi Arabia, Israel and Lebanon in jeopardy. He said a bipartisan plan should be forged to get out without abandoning U.S. allies. “We can’t just kick over the apple cart and walk away from them,” he said. “I don’t think we should stay — we do have to map a way out.”

. . snip . .

He agreed with Cahir on Iraq. “You can’t just cut and run,” McCracken said. “You can’t let that whole region fall apart over there.”

Lock Haven Mayor Vilello said that since he became mayor of the old industrial city in 2000 he has helped to steer it through a $6 million downtown beautification project and to establish a summer concert series with a good and growing reputation.

Lock Haven University is the fastest growing of the 14 state universities, he said, the airport that Piper abandoned is home to 55 small businesses and the company First Quality Tissue has invested $550 million to put the city’s old papermill industrial site back into the economy.

He said rural health care is a major concern. “We have to invest in rural health care because we can’t drive 60 miles to State College when there’s a big emergency,” he said.

OH-05 When is a “D” not a Democrat?

HUGE h/t to Ron at Politics1.com. Crossposted to OhioDailyBlog -EB

In Ohio, we don’t have “registered” Democrats or Republicans (or socialists or communists or anything else.) Rather, when voters go to the polls for a partisan primary, they request a ballot from the GOP or the Democrats or any other party that is on the ballot and having a primary. Other states do things differently but that’s the way we roll in the Buckeye state.

In 2006, George Mays of Norwalk, OH tried to run for the U.S. Senate. He did not run as a Democrat. Rather he tried to qualify for the ballot as an independent and claimed to be “Endorsed by the Reform Party of Ohio, The New Frontier Coalition, and the Libertarians of the Northeast Region.”

According to his website at that time, he stated:

“I will unveil a simple plan to ensure the financial security of America and eliminate all Federal taxes…”

His effort to qualify for the ballot failed. Again, from his website:

“We simply did not get enough petition signatures. … Most of my disappointment is in the lack of help from Reform Party and Libertarian members. I truely wish that you had given me a chance. … So, I will run for my Congressional Seat in 2008. …”

(emphasis added.)

Here is a picture from the current Reform Ohio party website:

If you look in the upper left hand corner, you can see a poster for Mr. Mays.

It would appear that Mr. Mays has never requested a Democratic ballot in a partisan primary, until he decided to run against Robin Weirauch in the primary for the special election here in OH-05 following the death of Rep. Gillmor.

But in order to get on the primary ballot last fall for the special election, as a “Democrat” all that he had to do was to pay $85 and submit nominating petitions with the signatures of fifty registered voters, who don’t have to be Democrats. Of course, he got stomped in the primary election.

But he’s back again this year and has successfully entered the primary as a Democrat. The problem is that no one else has filed to be on the ballot! Which means that he will win the primary election and this fall, his name will be on the ballot as the candidate of the Democratic Party.

This has happened to both parties in Ohio. With our gerrymandered districts, sometimes it is impossible to get candidates to take on kamikaze missions. Instead, wackos game the system and wind up on the ballot.

In the end, it doesn’t make much difference, because they always lose. The problem arises when the media offers candidates opportunities such as televised debates or candidate forums. There was such a forum once where the unendorsed GOP standard bearer called a US Representative a “lesbian socialist.” The look on the faces of the GOP politcos in attendance was priceless.

Another issue is whether to grant these ersatz candidates access to Party resources such as calling lists. Do you want this guy to have your address and phone number?

Congressional races by state: AZ

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

AZ has 8 congressional districts: 4 Democrats and 4 Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are



                                Confirmed

dist Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating

AZ04  D+14   .20     Pastor     No         Safe

AZ05  R+4    .47     Mitchell   Yes     Slight vul

AZ07  D+10   .27     Grijalva   Yes        Safe

AZ08  R+1    .46     Giffords   Yes     Slight vul

As for those held by Republicans:

AZ-01 R+2 .19

AZ-01 is the entire northeastern part of AZ, except for the odd blob in the middle that is AZ-02

Renzi, first elected in 2002, had close races in 2002 and 2006, and is retiring.

Confirmed Democrats include: Allan Affeldt ; Howard Shanker ; Ann Kirkpatrick and Mary Kim Titla  and several others who might run.  This looks like a good pickup possibility.

AZ-02 R+9 .47

AZ-02 is one of the most bizarrely shaped districts.  It includes the western part of AZ (bordering NV, CA and UT, and then a thin strip of land into a blob in interior AZ, and another blob in the south to the western suburbs of Phoenix

Franks, first elected in 2002, has won fairly easily against underfunded opponents.

The Democratic challenger is John Thrasher , who lost in 2006 by 59-39, although  he raised very little money.

AZ-03 R+6 .49

AZ-03 is the northern suburbs of Phoenix and Paradise Valley

Shadegg, first elected in 1994, was held under 60% in 2006 by Herb Paine, who raised less than $100,000.

The Democratic challenger is Bob Lord who has raised more money than Shadegg, and has more COH.  Could get interersting.

AZ-06 R+12 .50

Flake, first elected in 2000, has not had a Democratic opponent since 2002.

In 2008, Richard Grayson

Summary

AZ-01 is definitely competitive, AZ-05 might be.  I don’t know how vulnerable Mitchell and Giffords are.

Congressional races by state: NV, CO, WY, AK, MA

These are all states with filing deadlines in late May and early June

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NV has 3 districts, 2 Republican, 1 Democratic

CO has 7 districts, 3 Republican, 4 Democratic

WY has 1 district, held by a Republican

AK has 1 district, held by a Republican

MA has 10 seats, all Democratic

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

CO-01    D+18    .28        DeGette           No            Safe

CO-02    D+8     .62        Udall (retiring   Yes           Prob safe for

                          to run for senate) Yes              Dems

CO-03    R+6     .64       Salazar            No            Safe

CO-07    D+2     .40       Perlmutter         No            Safe

MA-01    D+15    .67       Olver              No            Safe

MA-02    D+13    .56       Neal               No            Safe

MA-03    D+13    .54       McGovern           Yes           Safe

MA-04    D+19    .58       Frank              Yes           Safe

MA-05    D+11    .56       Tsongas            No            Mostly safe

MA-06    D+11    .66       Tierney            Yes           Safe

MA-07    D+19    .48       Markey             No            Safe

MA-08    D+33    .11       Capuano            No            Safe

MA-09    D+15    .45       Lynch              No            Safe

MA-10    D+9     .59       Delahunt           No            Safe

NV-01    D+9     .21       Berkley            Yes           Safe

Those held by Republicans:

AK-AL R+14

Alaska.  1 person per square mile. It’s BIG.  If that were the population density of Manhattan, where I live, there would be 23 people here.  

Young, first elected in 1973, had his toughest race since 1994 in 2006: He was held to 57% by Diane Benson, even though Benson spent 1/10 as much.  He might retire. He’s tied to Abramoff, he’s tied to VECO, he’s gotten illegal cash. And he’s getting old.

Confirmed challengers include: Ethan Berkowitz (who was leading Young 49-42 in a poll commissioned in December by Daily Kos); Jake Metcalf ; and the 2006 candidate: Diane Benson ; and possibly Anchorage mayor Mark Begrich.

CO-04 R+9 .64

CO-04 is shaped like a backwards F, with the long side bordering NE and KS, the top bordering NE and WY.

Musgrave, first elected in 2002, has gotten declining percentages: 55% in 2002, 51% in 2004, and 46% in 2006.

This year, she is being challenged by Betsey Markey

CO-05 R+16 .49

CO-05 is pretty much the center of the state, including Colorado Springs

Lamborn, first elected in 2006, won with substantially less than his predecessor usually did.

There is no confirmed challenger

CO-06 R+10 .83

CO-06 is in the middle of the state, including Littleton and Castle Rock

Tancredo, first elected in 1998, is retiring.

The only confirmed Democrat is Mike Collins

NV-02 R+9  .51

NV-02 is nearly all of the state, except for the Las Vegas area. It is the largest district, except for single district states.

Heller, first elected in 2006, had a narrow (50-45) win then.

There are no confirmed challengers

NV-03 D+1 .38

NV-03 is a Y shaped district, composed of most of the suburbs of Las Vegas

Porter, first elected in 2002, had a close race in 2006 against Tessa Hafen (he won 48-47, and outspent her 2-1).

There are three confirmed challengers: Andrew Martin ; Barry Michaels ; and Robert Daskas.

WY-AL R+19 .64

Wyoming has fewer people than any other state

Cubin, first elected in 1994, is retiring

Several Republicans are running, and one Democrat: Gary Trauner who lost by only 1,002 votes in 2006.

Summary:

AK is a free-for-all

CO, our seats are safe, CO-04 might be competitive, and CO-06, while a Republican district, has an open seat.

MA – well, we can’t pick up any seats here!  But I don’t see us losing any either

NV-03 has some potential, it seems.

WY-AL: First Poll Shows Trauner in a Dead Heat

The Casper Star-Tribune has the details of the first publicly-released poll of the open seat race to replace retiring Wyoming Rep. Barbara Cubin, and the results are very encouraging for Democrat Gary Trauner (Mason-Dixon, 01/18-21):

Gary Trauner (D): 41%

Cynthia Lummis (R): 40%

(MoE: ±4%)

Lummis, a popular former state treasurer, has 70% name recognition, while Trauner has 80%.  If Trauner can be this competitive against the GOP’s top candidate, perhaps he stands a real chance of actually winning this thing.  The cross-over appeal is there:

Democrats favored Trauner over Lummis by a rate of 8-1. […]

Lummis didn’t receive the same support from her own party.

Twenty-three percent of Republicans said they would cross party lines to vote for Trauner. Another 23 percent of Republicans were undecided.

Perhaps prognosticators like Charlie Cook and Rothenberg might want to revisit their “safe GOP” ratings for this one.

FL-10: How Can You Trust Bill Young?

So crumb bum Bill Young wants us all to “assume that he’s running again”.  While that might be convenient for “C.W.”, we might want to take a look at his fourth quarter fundraising receipts and see if he’s actually, you know, preparing to run a campaign:

Total Contributions: $3750.00

That’s right.  In the last three months of 2007, Bill Young couldn’t even raise four thousand dollars.  That’s barely a hair better than the five Benjamins that Sen. John Warner raised in the first quarter of 2007.

As I’ve said before, something smells fishy regarding Bill Young’s shambling lurch toward his 20th term.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Young plans to pull out his parachute at or after the filing deadline.

WV-02: Unger Drops Out

Longtime friend of SSP, WV Blue diarist Carnacki, gives us the bad news:

State Sen. John Unger, our best shot at beating Shelley Moore Capito, has decided not to file.

Unger said he’s spent too much time fundraising and not enough time connecting with people. […]

Unger has more than $250,000 in the bank and had the strong support of the DCCC. This leaves Richie Robb, the former Arch Moore supported Republican, who has no money to compete against Moore’s well funded daughter.

With today being the deadline for filing for congressional races in West Virginia, Unger’s decision pretty much takes WV-02 off the table.  Terrible news.

The chatter at WV Blue suggests that Gov. Joe Manchin’s tacit support of Capito may have been a factor in Unger’s move.

UPDATE (David): Anne Barth, the state director for Sen. Robert Byrd, jumped into the race at the last second, apparently after Unger decided to bail. Carnacki thinks she might be able to make a real race of it, so there may still be a reason for hope in this district.

Awesome Political Names

Some people are just born with perfect political names. John Courage. Charlie Justice. Jon Powers.

And then there’s Dick Swett.

If you thought the Swing State Project was above this sort of thing, you were sadly wrong. But seeing as the two most popular TV shows among this site’s readers are The Simpsons and Family Guy, I’m not worried.

And man, there are some great names running this year. An early favorite is down in TX-22, where you’ve got Mayor John Manlove. (Not joking.) Out in NJ-07, there’s Deputy Mayor Chris Venis. (Cue Beavis.) I know there are more out there.

So, tell us, what are your favorite political names? They can be ridiculous or awesome. And they don’t just have to be from this cycle – any point in history, from any English-speaking country, will work. Come on people, make me smile!